XAU/USD bearish forecastGold is overbought with a slight bearish sentiment which may further be confirmed by resistance around daily supply
Overbought-condition
Bearish Bat Visible on the 1 Hour at Overbought on RSIWill put my stop above X and Take profit at C I like that the RSI is a little bit Exhausted in Confluence with this harmonic level.
Apple stock price is too high imoApple is trading at overbought territory but it does not look like it’ll fall much. It has the most bullish chart of them all. It’ll take alot to make this fall. You’ll see it trade in a small range to consolidate. Puts could work at these prices but remember to switch back to long near $167.50-170. $AAPL
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Blowoff Top Incoming: Do Not Short Yet!Chart says all. Pattern from August 2020, now making same insane run. The 1.62 Fibo extension from September correction is at 4720.
Do not short based on:
"I think the price is too high!"
"It's overbought, must come down!"
"How can it get any higher?! Already nosebleed!"
"I feel lucky!"
Short on signal; the engulfing bear candle after blowup. IF it follows overlay, gonna be Tues 9 Nov...
The retracement after top should fall to 50 DMA IMO... ~4480; then perhaps another run in December?! GLTA!
This is not advice, just another tutorial worth evry penny u paid for it!
EW Projection for Bull Rally: You sure you want to short this?!Be really careful about placing bets against this monster. The end phase of bull markets are always characterized by explosive panic rallies.
Been rising for 12 years. Fed gonna raise rates >1% next year, probably gonna get a 50 basis pip pop in spring or summer, inflation unchecked. Read Friday's NY Times for a very insightful article on when, why and how much interest rates will rise; projecting mortgage rates to rise >1% in 2022.
Most traders now alive have never seen a secular bear market. That's a period when prices just decline for years, or churn aimlessly, no one wins.
Bear markets that last for 3-6 weeks are not real bears, lol. They are mini-bears, bear cubs or just a mild hangover before the buying begins again.
In a real bear, the buying does NOT begin again. Prices decline, and then drift further down; and do not bounce. This is not here YET, but SOON IMO.
BUT, before the Bear, we should expect a last hurrah for the old Bull, and shorting it will be a widowmaker. Do not get killed, please!!
So much for the lecture, here's the Education part of this idea it's about using all the tools you can to make educated guesses about price direction; we have Elliott waves, RSI, MAs, and Fibonacci retracement and projection extensions as possibly useful analysis tools, any and all of which can and will fail us:
Elliot wave theory suggests that we have a completed or near completion 3rd wave, the longest and strongest wave of an impulsive movement.
Beware! EW projection is an arcane art and no one can really 'see' these waves until after they have passed... you do NOT know where you are in the wave when you're in it! Forecasting of EWs is purely speculative guesswork, and totally subjective; "Where do I number my waves, guru?!"
Disclaimer: As you know, Ralph Nelson Elliott was an accountant and math genius whose insight into market behavior led to his uncanny prediction of the bottom of 1935 mini-bear that followed the Crash of '29 (a bear that lasted until 1932...!). His theory is only a theory, and many forecasting services exist pretending to anticipate what the market will do next, but in fact underperform index funds. Still fascinating though!
RSI is overbought, but can get MORE overbought (see prior posts about why we do not enter shorts purely based on indicators!); expect some consolidation and price weakness before moving higher; the Fibonacci 1.272 extension of this rally leads to price 4614, after pullback to a higher low.
Market trades now more than 3SD above the 200 DMA, more than 2SD above the 50DMA; a pullback is very likely in these conditions. the 20DMA may be support.
Disclaimer: As you know, Fibonacci is a dead Italian math genius, these projections based on nothing more than number theory are pure necromancy but sometimes can be coincidentally correct, like a stopped clock that's right twice a day, lol.
IMO 4682 is on the table at the next Fib extension. Expect weakness in the last week of October; and new ATH again in November, barring surprises.
A sharp pullback is likely to follow the ATH, if and when we get it. So uncertain now, just a mad gamble TBVH.
NB: A zig-zag pattern is still possible, some of the fiercest rallies precede the most bearish cascades; or a Cup & Handle may form, if so, the Handle typically will pullback half the height of cup wall, would be ~80-100 pips, so price around 4460-4480 is a likely a buy zone to re-enter. ANY or NONE of these possibilities might emerge, which makes stock speculation so wildly exciting! Be cautious, do not overtrade, use sensible position sizing!
I am not entering a position or making any recommendation to take any position here. Pure WAGuess IMO; this is purely for your amusement, and hopefully enlightenment. GLTA!
You really wanna go long here?!RSI near 80, MFI near ATH over 90, Blowing Up. Chart has all the details. Could top this week or early next. Overlay is a WAG.
Absolute disconnect of price from reality. Selling soon IMO. Price may press higher to test the Fibo at 16,530 before rollover.
Every blowoff ends in a waterfall cascade. Excessive greed gives way to excessive fear. Gonna get real dicey real soon IMO.
Expect ATH ~400 in QQQ before it's done IMO. Might get an exhaustion gap up Thursday 11/04. See related ES1 chart, suggests Tues Top.
This is not advice, just another tutorial about nutty price behavior. I do not recommend or hold any position now; GLTA!
Short-Seller's Nightmare, ReduxIf you sell short or speculate in put options because:
- Price too high! Must come down!
- RSI Overbought! Must go oversold!
- Another ATH?! Sell it! Will dump soon!
- It's an Elliott Wave and Theory crafters say "Sell today!" or "Sell on a specific day I magically forecast!"
-I feel lucky, punk! Make my day!
Then you will lose money.
IF this monster rally follows the same path we saw in last year's stupid August rally, we could see price north of 4800... the Blow-Off Top.
I am NOT saying this will happen, BUT I think it COULD happen, keep that in mind when you place your bets... beware short-killing face-rippers.
THIS IS A TUTORIAL NOT ADVICE! I'VE NO POSITION AND NONE IS RECOMMENDED!! GLTA!!!
Zig-Zag Path to ATH?Just an idea. Every correction has been a zig-zag since 2015.
Last year the zag came in late October. Cycle this year seems to lag a week behind. Time bars suggest this rally maybe near end move.
Not saying that gap at 360 will fill, just that it might fill, it's a price magnet TBS. Price could consolidate and pivot again anywhere between.
Some kind of pullback is likely in next week to ten days IMO. Gone overbought, had some rough news, gapped down and closed that gap;
Expect further selling soon IMO.
Been wrong once before, this is definitely not advice, DDD, GLTA!
30 Minute Bearish Butterfly ETH between 1.272 and 1.618We are at the minimum entry for this pattern i'd like to wait for a 1.414 before i get in heavier but for now i'll short Half of what i want to short just incase it runs away from me and dumps now at the 1.272 as the RSI is mildly overbought at the moment and ETH can turn bearish very soon from here.
ES at 0.62 Fibo: Lower Soon?!Note the consolidation zones along the S/R line reaching back coincide with the Fibo retracement 0.618 level; bull/bear battle zones, likely rejection zone. Overbought condition, indicators pegged, but can always squeak higher ofc.
A move lower is likely imminent, Whether it proves to be a higher low and price returns to lofty valuation, or a real correction, TBD.
Thursday's nutty wild bull price action feels like a blowoff top, confirm it Friday IMO.
Fade the Gap didn't play on 9/23, perhaps it will 9/24? Looks like a Pumpndump forming atm.
Watch for short covering in Power Hour Friday!
Trade with caution! GLTA!
HLI to take a breather?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 95.39.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 94.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.084% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.597% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.123% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 31 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
SPX Ending 3W Brief Correction to Blow-off ATHRSI not mad overbought yet, IMO gonna see it get stupid like Feb 2020. After that, then the big break.
5-10% correction incoming, likely a zigzag, all the previous were zigzag corrections. Tis the season!
ES Overbought, Again...and again.. and again...Looks just like it did in May and June before the mini-bears. MFI + RSI both peaking. Stupid new ATH. Can it get higher?! OFC!
Closed out my SPY 465 October vertical 465/480 spreads by buying the short legs back for a $1K credit in early trade; I held the long 480 calls and re-entered today at the ATH, now short 20 October 462s and 50 October 467s for a net credit $9k. The 462s sold for >$2, more risky, juicy premium.
So I got to use my long call legs twice, they are paid for! Neat trick, in parlance; 'legging into position.'
The 467s are $18 OTM, after a long run-up like this these are likely to favor the seller IMO.
NB: Selling calls entails considerable risk and is NOT a suitable strategy for most day traders! You can lose a lot more than you get in credits.
Remember on 9 Nov when the damned thing gapped up 150 pips?! That's risk!! Short-sellers wiped out on opening gap, OW!!
A monster gap seems unlikely at this price, but do NOT sell VCS into price weakness! Killer Rallies can wipe you out in minutes.
Sell put spreads on weakness, if you dare.
Trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
RSI flashing overbought for CDNABased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on August 25, 2021 with a closing price of 78.47.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 76.99 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.886% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.0% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.694% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 25 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
QQQ Bear Diagonal Put Spread Sept 368/Aug 27 356Hedged put position just took ten spreads on Friday 13th for net debit $7. NOT recommended for fainthearted, Big risk/big reward (maybe).
There is support at former resistance ~342 - 345, targeting. Index is overbought and struggling to break above 370. GLTA!
UAA predictionUAA hihgly overbought and the shorts are around the conrer.
On the short term we could bounce back to $20.
Weekly Overbought RSI with Bearish MACD Divergence at ResistanceThis thing looks like it's ready to come back down to test support in the coming weeks.
ADA-Short-Cardano (short-term bear)Hello traders and investors!!😄👋
Let's see if Cardano falls after reaching a new ATH very recently.
If we see the fall, I have points set up that I am expecting ADA to reach in the range of.
This is a short technical-analysis👇👇.
Fundamentally, Cardano (ADA) is a very strong blockchain network.
In the event that we go up for another ATH, I have bull target listed above on chart💹.
This not a lengthy idea/post thank you.
🛑🛑🛑This is not financial advice🛑🛑🛑
Always have a stop loss ✋🛑💲 set please!!!!!
Thank you so much!
Jazerbay ☯
Is Tapestry Set To Cool Off?Six of my algorithms signaled a SELL on April 13, 2021 for TPR on the 2 Hour charts. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first. Since the signal occurred at the open, the continued upward movement appears to have already hit the mark. This could mean it does not move higher until it find my projected target box (green inside green) at the bottom of the chart. Ultimately the brief drop is temporary and could setup another great dip buying opportunity.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 2 Hour chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
Multiple Overbought Signals Pointing To A DipIn the case of CPRT, 5 of my algorithms signaled a SELL on April 6, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first. I really like this one because the RSI signaled SELL a few days prior and it is an early warning signal of near-term movement
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 3 Hour chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
Is #Bitcoin's Blow Off Top Yet To Come?
Make Sure You Take Your Profits!
$30k Is a Psychological Resistance.
Don't Expect To Time The Top, Just Try to Get Close (Within 10%)
Bitcoin Will Retrace Heavily Once It Breaks The Parabolic Trend! (40%+ Retracement Expected)
A Pull Back and Bounce At 20k Would Confirm A Nice Support Resistance Flips and set Bitcoin Up For Further Upside..
Try To Increase Your Bitcoin Holding With This In Mind!
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US100 a great opportunity to short !14 000 is psychological level.
RSI is currently overbought and showing divergence.
expecting big price drop.
this idea is based only on TA and Indicators.
Let's see (0_o)
$F Ford at over bought levelspure strength play; overbought levels; look for some pull back on technical; not long term short
