Overbought and oversold on XRPBTCUsing the Williams R% oscillator indicator since July 2019 we can see overbought and oversold states on XRPBTC. Here are two types of vertical lines: greens and orange.
The green lines are the moment when the position should have been open and the oranges when it should have been close.
The arrows show whether price should have risen or fallen according to the indicator.
The conservative signal for a long position is when the line breaks up the bottom dashed and the -50.00 line. The signal for a short position is the mirror. At this time, the signal is for a long position from 27 Mar until the line breaks down the -50.00 line again.
Note: Stop loss and take profits are only illustrative.
Chart: D
Overbought-oversold
ZEC Looking To Double Bottom In Oversold Territory On The Daily ZEC pulling back along with the rest of the market. It has golden crossed on the daily timeframe. Stochastic RSI is oversold. The weekly timeframe RSI is Overbought similar to BTC. ZEC currently attempting to find support on the 50 MA. Thinking we'll see the weekly RSI cool off resulting in the daily RSI turning south in the days ahead to make a double bottom formation. Price could retest the upper $40's potentially. I would suspect candle body to bottom around $55 but that is highly speculative. If you know anything about ZEC is this thing prints insane wicks all the time so watch out with your stop loss. At least consider that in your trading strategy this is a real easy one to get stopped out in rather frequently. Its worth noting that on January 14th or 15th ZEC saw what looks to be its highest amount of buy volume ever recorded. I am long term investor with bullish view overall. Think the charts are showing some bearish potential for the days ahead. Say what you will about Zcash but remember this one thing....
It was once listed for $2,200,000 each. Ridiculous as it may be it still is a fact. Calculate the risks you take.
Please Like & Comment ------> Lets Be Friends **even if we disagree**
HAVE A GREAT DAY. LIFE IS A GIFT.
Not Financial Advice.
BTC Golden Cross On The Daily Despite Recent Sell OffAfter a healthy uptrend BTC has met resistance on the major diagonal resistance line drawn from the 20k & 14k peaks. Despite a strong rejection we have still managed to get a Golden Cross on the daily chart . Stochastic RSI in oversold conditions. However, We are in overbought territory on the Weekly timeframe in Stochastic RSI . Looking at moving averages for support out fist one would be the 50 day around the $8,500 region. We need to breakout of the diagonal resistance before we can put our moon suits on. That time only grows closer each day. Could see a double bottom get printed in daily Stochastic RSI in oversold condition while the weekly cools off. There is definitely some downside potential for BTC and the market overall in the short term. If your focused on the macro picture you know where were going long term. Double digit blocks soon to be a thing of the past ---> for ever.
Please Like & Comment ------> Lets Be Friends **even if we disagree**
HAVE A GREAT DAY. LIFE IS A GIFT.
Not Financial Advice.
XRPUSD 1H BEST %R MOMENTUM STRATEGYStep #1: Define the Trend. An Downtrend is defined by a Series of LH Followed by a Series of LL.
The definition of an downtrend is pretty much standard. In an downtrend, we look for a series of lower highs followed by a series of lower lows. Two LH followed by at least another two LL is enough to define an downtrend.
A lower high is simply a swing low point that is lower than the previous swing high. While a lower low is simply a swing low that is lower than the previous swing low.
All momentum traders know that the trend is our friend. But without momentum behind the trend, we might actually not have any trend.
For active traders, we also look at the actual price action in order to gauge momentum. Besides reading the best momentum indicator.
Step #2: In an Downtrend Look for Bold Candlesticks that Close Near the Lower End of the Candlestick .
A technical analysis concept is that you want to use multiple confirmation signs when buying and selling. This will increase the likelihood that’s a high probability trading setup.
In this regard, the momentum trading strategy besides using the best momentum indicator, also incorporates the price action.
A practical way to read momentum from a price chart is to simply look at the candlestick length. What we want to see in an downtrend is big, bold bearish candlesticks that close near the lower end of the candlestick.
Now, it’s time to focus on the Williams %R. This is the best momentum indicator. Which brings us to the next step of our momentum indicator strategy.
Step #3: Wait for the best Momentum Indicator to get overbought (above -20). Then rallies below the -50 level before Selling .
We’re going to use Williams %R, the best momentum indicator in a smart way. In an downtrend, we sell after the best momentum indicator has reached overbought conditions (above -20). And then rallied back below the -50 level.
Now, we have confirmation from both the price and the best momentum indicator. The real momentum is behind this trend and the probabilities are in favor of more downside prices from here on.
Note* If the best momentum indicator continually stays in oversold territory (below -80 level), it signals a strong momentum and conversely a strong trend. Inversely the same is true in a uptrend.
The next important thing we need to establish is where to place our protective stop loss.
Step #4: Place Your Protective Stop Loss above the Recent Lower Low.
We want to hide our protective stop loss. It is above the most recent lower low level that formed right before the best momentum trading strategy issue the sell signal.
Alternatively, you can also trail your stop loss above each most recent lower low. This strategy will allow you to lock-in the potential profits in case of a sudden market reversal.
Last but not least the momentum indicator strategy also needs a place where we need to take profits, which brings us to the last step of the best momentum trading strategy.
Step #5: You pick your own TP strategy or
Take Profit once we break above the Previous Lower Low
A trend in motion can stay in that state longer than anyone can anticipate. And since we want to maximize our potential profits we let the market tips it hands before liquidating our trades. In this regard, we look for a break in the trend structure. Respectively a break above the most recent lower low.
Alternatively, you can take profit once the best momentum indicator breaks above the -50 level.
Note** The above was an example of a SELL trade using the Best Momentum Trading Strategy. Use the same rules for a BUY trade.
Massive sequence of RSI-Renko DIVINE™ Scalps Following Iran NewsThere were a total of 250-270 points of NQ scalps after the Iran missile strikes going long. If you held the first contract long on the swing trade (1st trade in the direction of the new trend is always the swing trade, marked by a fat arrow) you would have gained another 270 points.
Has Metcalfe's Law Stopped Working for Bitcoin?Metcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent.
Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin , using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results.
Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have been performed over recent years which validate this and have used various derivations of Metcalfe’s Law. Note: this indicator sticks to the original Metcalf’s Law.
Prior to 2018, every time Bitcoin was above the Metcalfe’s Law fair price (calculated using a default “A” of 0.5 here), a bubble had formed, and price quickly reverted back down to the mean.
Nonetheless, since February 2018, Metcalfe's Law Fair Price has remained below the actual Bitcoin price, suggesting Bitcoin is currently overvalued.
There may be a few reasons for this:
1. Possibility A: Bitcoin may still be extremely overvalued. Since the December 2017 peak, Bitcoin has only reverted to the Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price briefly during the December 2018 bottom. If this case is true, there could be further to fall unless DAA numbers pick up to fill the gap.
2. Possibility B: The introduction of side-chains, private transactions and the Lightning Network may have fundamentally altered the effectiveness of using DAA to value Bitcoin . As more daily transactions are completed off-chain, or on large platforms/exchanges which use fewer addresses, the relative number and growth of DAA may be misrepresented and artificially low. In this case, DAA as it is reported today is no longer useful in assessing the fair value of Bitcoin with Metcalfe’s Law and this Indicator is effectively useless.
3. Possibility C: Neither of the above are true. We are just in an anomalous period in which price and Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price have deviated from the mean for an extended period (and will meet again in the future, potentially at a higher price).
4. Possibility D: Metcalfe’s Law doesn’t really work for Bitcoin .
I am inclined to believe Possibilities “C” and “D” are unlikely. Given the way Bitcoin infrastructure is being developed and used in 2019, Possibility “B” seems the most likely, as this case is supported by the fact that a number of other metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently on the lower side of “fair value” (including Dynamic Range NVT Signal).
If Possibility “B” is false, or the impact of private network address usage is negligible, the Bitcoin network may not in a healthy state, with DAA values basically flat for the last 3 years.
Regardless, Possibility “A” remains a candidate. Only time will tell. It will be interesting to check back on this indicator in 12-24 months time. Hopefully this indicator has been proven redundant by then.
Dynamic Range NVT Signal for Long-term Bitcoin ValuationABOUT DYNAMIC RANGE NVT SIGNAL
NVT Signal (Credit: woobull.com) is akin to a "PE" ratio for Bitcoin, and can be used to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on the relative value of transactions sent across the network.
This indicator includes a 2 year moving average and standard deviation to identify outlier values, instead of declaring a static high-low range for relative valuation.
THEORY
A dynamic "high-low" range was chosen for the following reasons:
- Bitcoin is only 10 years old, it is likely that relatively "high" and relatively "low" NVT values will change with time, as have PE ratios over the last century.
- Some transactions are now made off-chain (eg. Liquid Network's private side-chain which is used by many major exchanges). If this trend continues, we can expect "normal" NVT ranges to increase with time (as the relative portion of public on-chain transaction values decreases).
CALCULATION
- NVT = Circulating Market Cap / 90 average On-chain Transaction Value*
- Overbought (default): NVT > 2-year mean + 2*standard deviations. I.e. NVT Signal is in the top 2.5% of values for the prior 2 years.
- Oversold (default) NVT < 2-year mean.**
*Data source: Blockchain.info, estimated transaction value does not include returned to sender as change.
**Oversold under 2-year mean was chosen due to the skewness of NVT Signal, it is not quite normally distributed. For example: NVT Signal has never been less than the 2-year mean - 2* standard deviations. This may change in the future.
NOTES ON USAGE
- Use with care. Bitcoin can remain "overbought" or "oversold" for extended periods (eg. 2015-2016).
- As Bitcoin ages, the validity of NVT Signal will need to be monitored. Particularly with respect to potentially increasing use of side-chains, private transactions and potentially the lightning network.
- It is likely that a 2-year “look back period” for calculating mean and standard deviation will not be sufficient in the decades to come. As Bitcoin matures and stabilizes (some time in the future), a longer "look back period" should probably be used. To allow for this, the defaults for this indicator can be easily adjusted.
Overbought overreaction: short BYND 138c June 14BYND reported earnings with a wider loss in the first quarter of 2019 due to higher costs and expenses, but outstanding guidance for next year. Even bullish analysts have set price targets below the current market price of $135. JPMorgan is overweight with a $120 price target, Bernstein rates outperform with a $107 price target, Credit Suisse sets a price target of $125, Goldman set a target of $76 and BoA Merrill Lynch sets a price target of $101. Competition is also increasing in the already-crowded space. Nestle announced earlier this week that they will launch a plant-based burger, dubbed "the Awesome Burger." Burger King in in the process of adding the Impossible Foods burger nationwide and Tyson Foods is creating a plant-based protein that is mirrors Beyond's offerings.
Beyond Meat is only one brand in a very competitive space. This huge jump of over 35% after reporting more losses, yet a "positive outlook" despite increasing vehement competition is an overreaction. The RSI indicators show a reading of a whopping 81, indicating that BYND stock is extremely overbought. BYND is also trading outside of the bollingers, making it fit for mean reversion. The MACD indicator also shows that the momentum is waning. The Parabolic Stop and Reverse indicator is now above the candles, indicating a bearish movement to come. We are thus shorting the 138 calls with June 14th expiry (next Friday). This benefits from the expensive contract prices because of high implied volatility, and the near-term expiry thus allows us to collect theta premium.
Is Divergence Really Irresistible?Divergence is one of the best technical analysis theories. Although not 100%, a very high probability of profitability is well known.
This idea lists most of the instances of divergence on BTCUSD (Coinbase) since $19892 summit of December 2017 on 2H interval.
Indicators used:
RSI
MACD
9 Seasons Rainbow Multiple Time Frames Pattern PRO
Base Time Frame: 2H, most upper ribbon of "9 Seasons Rainbow"
Longest Time Frame: 90H (3D + 18H), most lower ribbon of "9 Seasons Rainbow"
Instances of Bullish Divergences (Green Arrows)
29 instances, probability of profitability > 85%
Signals:
Blue ascending arrows in RSI & MACD
Blue Ribbons in "9 Seasons Rainbow"
Instances of Bearish Divergences (Red Arrows)
17 instances, probability of profitability > 90%
Signals:
Yellow descending arrows in RSI & MACD
Yellow Ribbons in "9 Seasons Rainbow"
The value of divergence: it is not limited to fixed price and it happens on any Time Frame, when it encounters strong resistance or support.
The downside of divergence: high reward is coming with high risk, when the resistance or support being broken through, a breakout or breakdown may happen. Thus whales can use this to play with the market, with the recent case happened on April 1.
By using "9 Seasons Rainbow" Indicators, traders can monitor Divergence:
Visually
Cross Multiple Time Frames on a single screen, without necessary to change time intervals /sessions
Setting Alerts of divergence on All Time Frames on a click
DISCLAIMER
This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing advice NOR trading advice.
Please make their own decisions, carefully assess risks and be responsible for your own investing and trading activities.
The arrows and rectangles are added manually according to signals of the indicators.
Hidden Divergence is not included in this idea, because I feel the probability to win is not so high as normal Divergence. May be I don't find the right method to use hidden Divergence.
Is Divergence the King or Queen of Crypto Technical Analysis?Divergence is one of the best technical analysis theories. Although not 100%, a very high probability of profitability is well known.
This idea lists most of the instances of divergence on BTCUSD (Coinbase) since $19892 summit of December 2017 on 2H interval.
Indicators used:
RSI
MACD
9 Seasons Rainbow Multiple Time Frames Pattern PRO
Base Time Frame: 2H, most upper ribbon of "9 Seasons Rainbow"
Longest Time Frame: 90H (3D + 18H), most lower ribbon of "9 Seasons Rainbow"
Instances of Bullish Divergences (Green Arrows)
29 instances, probability of profitability > 85%
Signals:
Blue ascending arrows in RSI & MACD
Blue Ribbons in "9 Seasons Rainbow"
Instances of Bearish Divergences (Red Arrows)
17 instances, probability of profitability > 90%
Signals:
Yellow descending arrows in RSI & MACD
Yellow Ribbons in "9 Seasons Rainbow"
The value of divergence: it is not limited to fixed price and it happens on any Time Frame, when it encounters strong resistance or support.
The downside of divergence: high reward is coming with high risk, when the resistance or support being broken through, a breakout or breakdown may happen. Thus whales can use this to play with the market, with the recent case happened on April 1.
By using "9 Seasons Rainbow" Indicators, traders can monitor Divergence:
Visually
Cross Multiple Time Frames on a single screen, without necessary to change time intervals /sessions
Setting Alerts of divergence on All Time Frames on a click
Poll: Is Divergence the King or Queen of Cryptocurrency / Cryptoasset Trading Technical Analysis?
Please leave your comments.
DISCLAIMER
This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing advice NOR trading advice.
Please make their own decisions, carefully assess risks and be responsible for your own investing and trading activities.
The arrows and rectangles are added manually according to signals of the indicators.
EURGBP: Resisted by Waning MomentumEURGBP
Timeframe: H4
Direction: Short
Confluences for Trade:
- Waning strength in bullish rally
- Price at Horizontal Resistance
- Likely to Breaking S/T Trendline
- Stochastic Overbought momentum
- Fundamentally, both nations have internal issues that have yet to be solved, it really depends on timing on the events release; do note that EU will comment on Italy's budget tomorrow
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 0.8890 - 0.8930
SL: 0.8969
TP: 0.8767
RR: Approx. 2.16 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
EURUSD: Market Volatility PersistsEURUSD
Timeframe: 1D
Direction: Short
Confluences for Trade:
- Waning bullish momentum
- Price action at Resistance of Parallel Channel
- Price close to a Horizontal Resistance Line
- Price reversing off a retracement of the 38.2% Fibo line
- Stochastic Overbought momentum
- Fundamentally, EU-Italy impasse still remains and concern about global growth outlook creating abit more volatility in the markets
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 1.1415 - 1.1475
SL: 1.1509
TP: 1.1278
RR: Approx. 2.01 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Trading levels for 06/12/2018FED DAY WEDNESDAY 06/13/2018.
Hello everybody, here are the levels for trading on Tuesday, currently there is a little more volatility in the markets, let's hope and it stays like that throughout tomorrow's day. Moving forward if market keeps pushing higher we have some resistance at 7240 to 7260, after that, it would be ATH. We had no trades on Monday, market didn't move to our entry pivotpoints, let's see what happens tomorrow.
PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN
K.R.S.
Wabi: destined to bounceWabi is one of those projects that has a actual live product: placing secure anti-counterfeiting labels on consumer products mainly in China (think Chinese baby-milk powder scandal) but also planning to move more international.
Wabi had a huge run down. RSI indicator on the daily went from overbought allmost straight to oversold where we now seem to recover. Also some horizontal support might be in play here. It is to early to call the bottem in, but at the least some nice recovery (30% potentially) should be in the cards here. Traders could go long here, investors with longer time horizons might wait for the break of the upperside of the downward channel.
BTCUSDT 3 Chart Case StudyWe are going to study over the weekend how this pair moves.
We have a 4H - 30m - 5m chart opened.
We are going to study how price moves around our 50/100 sma
We are going to watch how the macd moves around the macd 0 level line and
the stoch 20/80 levels - blue dotted lines
The 4H is in-between the 50 and 100 sma. This I call an inner range. it has no real direction or momentum. When price breaks out of the inner range it will have direction and momentum. Watch this pair over the weekend and make copies of your chart with the camera in the lower right corner.
The 4H macd is above the 80 level. Price can go half way across to the 100 sma and fall back to the 50 sma because the macd is above the 80 level. Let's watch and see if it does.
Price may just go across to the 100 sma so let's watch if that happens and what the macd looks like during that.
If price does come back to the 50 sma two things can happen. It can break below the 50 sma and retest the swing low on the 4H. or price will try a second time to make it across to the 100 sma. Watch how the macd looks like during all of this and make sceenshots. We are not trading here we are just studing and educating ourselves how to use this indicator. As the 4H is doing all of this you want to be watching and documenting how the 1H and 5m charts look and how they are acting in these different situations. This is a great pair to teach you all of the ebb and flow of price and how the indicator reacts to it.
You are watching on the 30m and 5m how price moves around the 50/100 sma and how the macd is moving around the 80/20 levels and the 0 level line.
AUDUSD H4: Waiting Outside the ForkAUDUSD has shown some weakness in that it failed to reach the Median Line (ML) of the blue pitchfork. That's why I expect it to fall to the most outer sliding parallel. This is where I'll be watching if market finds support and presents a new entry opportunity to go long. The AUD is still quite strong, although it's getting neutral and oversold, whereas the USD is relatively weak and overbought at the same time. This is a combination that is auspicious for stalking a new long position.
OBV Triangle and it's price equivalentI drew a triangle based on OBV's 50 hour moving average (orange),
and mirrored the triangle on price.
Red and green areas are 80/20 % overbought / oversold zones.
At this moment we are in the overbought zone so you can try a short here.
I expect a big move of ca. 50% after price breaks out of the triangle.
Targets:
Upside: 333-375
Downside: 130-90
Cheers : ]
-- PS: Here is the pine script code for the OBV indicator with moving averages: pastebin.com
WMT Bearish Divergence set to take it back to 85'sBearish Divergence formed at the outer Bollinger Band extreme. Divergence shown on RSI, Mac-d signal lines, and histogram. Today put in the first lower high on the histogram along with price creating a reversal candle on above average volume. Looking for a drop back to light support level.
Anticipatory layout with important trend lines, levels, timefibsWe might be cought in sideways within the red channel for another 20 days.
I look at the Willy or MAGNUS™ indicator and compare it to a similar situation we had a couple months ago.
The yellow box had some rangebound action in it with a little breakdown in the middle ( just like we had it now ).
The question is what will happen after the yellow box? The red box like last time?
Then we will definitelly see 280 again.
Or if 320 holds (looks like some strong demand is sitting there),
we'll see another pump like seen in the last green box !
Also check out the time fib analysis :
0.382 & 0.618 were important points in time, so 1 will probably be important too! Likely a major low/high in price.
The target for a bullish move is the thick blue dashed line, which is this years top resistance trend line. You can expect sellers there.