Costco looking toppishCostco has reached its upper channel and is in a parabolic move. Seems due for at least a pulback towards the bottom of its rising channel.
Overbought
Fibonacci retracement complete?Probably close to a meaningful pullback zone at the .62 fibo from Jan 3 highs. OFC it can always creep higher, been on rally 9 days now, usually means a dip to be expected.
Overbought in every timeframe now.
SP500 either topped, will top, or flying high for yearsMy patience is being tested right now. I am running out of possible days of length and price targets. I have the market in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave B (began February 24, 2022), Intermediate wave C (began March 8, 2022). The shorthand for this wave is 1532BC which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. Right now, Intermediate wave C (if we are still in it, we cannot be for much longer) is:
1) 1) 15 days long
2) 2) Gain of 479.43
3) 3) 300% the length of wave A
4) 4) 172.99% the move of wave A
5) 5) Accounts for 65.22% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) length
6) 6) Makes up 91.73% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) move
This also makes the stats on Primary wave B look like:
7) 7) 23 days long
8) 8) Gain of 522.65
9) 9) 65.71% retracement of Primary wave A’s length (35 bars)
10) 10) 74.24% retracement of Primary wave A’s movement (dropped 703.97 points)
1-My models only forecast 15, 17 and 27 days in length for wave C. Most of the model agreement was below 10 days.
2-The move is not necessarily a factor by itself but the additional data will use this. The price forecasts below the current high is 4633.725. The next set of price points tops below 4700 are: 4637.45, 4652.15, 4653.96, 4657.99, 4664.74, 4665.448, 4673.78, 4674.76, 4675.68, 4676.19, 4681.05, 4689.68, 4697.24. These prices begin to have more gaps than the prices below this point. There is a 4 point grouping in the 4670s.
3-Intermediate C waves rarely exceed the 300% length of wave A which is where the index is based on today’s high. Intermediate C has moved 276.92% (wave ended C2C, we are 2BC), 281.25% (2BC), 466.67% (C2C), 517.39 (54C).
4-Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median move which is 127.13% of Intermediate wave A and an average of 123.72%. Intermediate C waves ending in 2BC have a median move of 152.47% and an average of 142.60%. The maximum is 242.75% of intermediate wave A’s movement. We are above the normal in the current case.
5-In the three wave structure of Primary wave B, Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median contribution of 31.25% for Primary wave B’s length and an average of 33.46%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median contribution of 49.45% and average of 44.22%. The highest contribution so far is 64.29% for 2BC and BC waves.
6-Likewise regarding the contribution to the overall wave, BC waves make up 68.74% as a median and 70.32% on average. There are four occasions above 90.49%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median make up of 90.49% and with a maximum at 95.12%. The current contribution is still acceptable, and quite common for 2BC waves.
7-The forecast days from my models at and above the current length are 26, 28, 32, 40, 51, 52, 59, 63, and 70 days in length. Strong agreement at 26 and 28 days.
8-The price forecasts for the end of Primary wave B have a few tight price target pockets which are: 4637.365, 4637.588, 4645.7, 4645.874, 4654.17, 4654.2, 4654.525, 4658.71, 4658.962, 4659.03, 4659.04, 4659.691, 4675.203, 4677.57, 4677.81, 4687.6, 4687.61, 4688.36, 4688.39.
9-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B match 25% to 400% the length of Primary wave A. Waves ending in 32B usually retrace around 55-70% with an outlier at 400%. We are in the smaller window now, but only for a day or two more at most.
10-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B move 41 to 88% of wave A’s movement. Waves ending in 32B move 54-77% which we are also nearing the high end of this window.
To conclude, 1) the market has either topped today and we finally began Primary wave C downward with the final 15 minutes of trading today; 2) the market can rise for 2 more days at most before a reversal; or 3) We are not in Primary waves B or C and instead we ended all of the downward movement on February 24. If the latter is the case we are in the early stages of Cycle 3 which will see massive upward momentum for possibly 2-3 years. If option 1 remains valid, the chart below shows early signs of where movement will take us. Regardless of option 1 or 2, we will find a bottom and then begin Cycle 3 with the same aforementioned results. I am bullish long-term, but remain bearish in the short-term until we either break above 4818 or move below 3900.
Bigger uptrend/sideways zone, With an intern UptrendBTC in Breakout of the 2 uptrends Also it is in excess price that means its overbought.
Short term retracement very possible
Price in Excess uptrend channel (potential Short setups)If Price loses The green Support box High probability BTC will go to the Lower green line.
BTC is making LH's on the lower timeframe 5M.
Look for a break from 46700 BTCUSDT to activate Shorts.
NFG to cool off on NATO news?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 25, 2022 with a closing price of 68.04.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 67.47 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.05% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.298% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.552% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 15 trading bars; half occur within 26 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 44 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Will Red Hot STLD Cool Off?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 25, 2022 with a closing price of 89.32.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 88.46 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.053% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.824% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 7.606% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Ready for RejectionPumped to .786 nonstop. Last massive pump in Jan looked a lot like this and lasted a week. Overbought on evry timeframe, lol.
Pullback to some Fibo seems likely IMO. Bear breakout, bulls are back in town. Get ready to buy the next dip for an April run to ATH.
USDJPY RSI Exhaustion at PCZ of 1.13 ABCD ExtensionThe RSI here does not show Divergence but it does show consecutively weaker attempts at making higher highs at the PCZ of this AB=CD and could be signaling the end of the trend for now taking us all the way down to around the levels of C.
Will AKAM retest February lows?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 116.2.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 115.23 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.488% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.983% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.105% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 17 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 26 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Avis CAR heading down soon?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 278.865.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 276.66 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.741% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.867% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.846% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 18 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
DG hit probable resistance on FridayBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 226.135.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 224.83 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.767% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.167% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.958% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 21 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 27 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
LOVE likely to drop very soonBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 48.06.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 47.35 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.856% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.629% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.77% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 12 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 30 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NZD-JPY Overbought! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-JPY is surging up in a strong bullish move
And the pair is locally oversold
So I am expecting a bearish correction
From an important resistance level above
Towards the demand levels below
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
XAU/USD bearish forecastGold is overbought with a slight bearish sentiment which may further be confirmed by resistance around daily supply
NZDJPY H&S Formation - Huge Sell opportunity Here is a new SELL Scenario for NZDJPY , there is here a very high probability of head and shoulders formation.
I expect a sell between 80.400 - 80.700
JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
RSI AMPLIFIER// (v4) RSI AMPLIFIER ( MCDX-Oscillator + Renko-Filter ) ( BTC ) ( 1h,2h,3h,4h )
//Authors credit:
//Smart Money based of / Indicator | MCDX
//Renko Volume based of "Weiss Wave Volume" / "WWV"
//The SmartMoney MCDX (MultiColor-Dragon) amplify rsi values to give confirmation of so called BANKER or SMART-MONEY against Retaillers.
//The main issue to me was that the original "SmartMoney MCDX" give only half the potential information since it focus only on positive price action.
//Therefore this version is a SMART-MONEY OSCILLATOR built to give entry/exit signals for shorts as well as long.
//The Real-Momentum plot replaces HOT MONEY (area, darkgreen/darkred), react quickly to oversold/overbought and hit the max/min value at almost every bar.
//The Over-Extended plot replaces BANKER MONEY (stepline, yellow/blue), need a stronger oversold/overbought value to move from the middle.
//The Signal-Line plot (line, green/red, with filler), is halfway between the Real-Mommentum & Over-Extended trying to give a signal after the move start but before the biggest candles.
//
//The original RETAILLERS MONEY carries no information and as been erased.
//
//Renko-Filter reduce the noise by adding volume values to each new columns until the trend reversal.
//How to use:
//
//The purpose and logic of this indicator is " Amplify to Simplify "
//
//Enter trade when the Signal-Line leave the middle.
//Long when it go TOP GREEN / Short when it go BOTTOM RED
//Exit trade when the Signal-Line return to middle or/while the Renko-Filter reverse.
//
//When you analyze the chart stay zoom out with max/min on the edges of the pan. Only the biggest Renko-series will be visible.
//When trading, you may zoom in to see evolution in real time.(version built for minutes time-frames in progress)
//
//You can easily set a LONG TRADE alarm on the Signal-Line, choosing "Greater than 10" then "Less than 50000"
//You can easily set a SHORT TRADE alarm on the Signal-Line, choosing "Less than -10" then "Greater than -50000"
//
//Be careful when Real-Momentum start being choppy or simply goes too much/too long in the opposite side of the trend.
//If the Over-Extended plot follow the Signal-Line after you enter a trade, you're good but always exit before the Over-Extended return to mid.
//Use the Renko-Filter to detect lauching Extended-Trend, to confirm Real-Momentum reversal, or to stay in a trade to the last candles.
// INFO:
//This version is built on purpose for BTC 1h/2h/3h/4h, differents assets, time-frames or exchanges may need change.
//If you can't see the Over-Extended, Signal Line or Renko-Filter with a particular time-frame or asset, you can change the value of the rsi at "rsi := 500000" & "rsi := -500000".
//Change by a value > to that of the candles (last value in status line).
//Zoom in on the indicator to see the Renko-Filter but idealy you want to see the max/min value of the 3 plot of the indicator(default = 50000).
//
// Overlay:
//You can display this indicator directly on your Chart and set No scale (fullscreen), to use it like as a RSI Baseline.
//If so, i made specifics version doing it by default (overlay,BTC)(overlay,largeCAP).
//@version=4
Atomera May Drop SoonBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on February 11, 2022 with a closing price of 15.8.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 15.58 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.756% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 9.602% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.873% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 2 trading bars; half occur within 4 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 17 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Bearish Crab at the PCZ with divergenceBearish Crab at the PCZ with MACD bearish Divergence and showing a lower high and lower low locally also coming off of overbought on the RSI
CHFJPY - TRIO Retest!CHFJPY is overall bullish trading inside the blue and green daily channels.
I find the upper bound interesting as it is the intersection of the upper daily trendlines in green and blue, and the upper weekly trendline in brown.
The highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of three trendlines. Which I call " TRIO RETEST "
As per my trading style:
As CHFJPY approaches the purple circle area, I will be looking for reversal sell setups on lower timeframes (like a double top pattern, trendline break, and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC BearishSince the fear of extraordinary high inflation and the corresponding provisions against it are shocking investor's sentiment, I want to warn from "unexpected happenings" in the near future.
I would not believe, that current levels will be held. We might see a continuation of up's and down's for a few weeks, but after March (point of time where the FED will stop its balance sheet expansion), I can't see prices being sustained at this level.
The Money Flow Index is near it's overbought range, which indicates a broader top-ish area, as well as we are still below the Cloud.
Passiveness is recommended.
