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Overbought

$SPY ~ Why A Crash Won't Surprise MeFirstly: This is not a prediction. I just say what I see. And what I see is, a tentative market top that looks different than all the previous "tops" this year, including the 2020 crash. I will put "top" in quotes because of course, I cannot be sure that is indeed a top until after the fact; obviously. What's different about this "top"? My labelled chart tells all, but in summary: There are very few or very small gaps. A clear gap almost always represents a "shock" in the system. A fall with virtually no gaps, in my view, means a structured, calm, almost rational fall. There is a cluster of red candles meaning this indeed "methodical" selling, also relating to the fact that there are no big gaps Take a look at the 2020 crash, and all mini tops this year (2021). You'll see nothing but choppiness and gaps. Panicking, in other words. Take a look at the 2008 crash: As you can see, virtually no gaps near the top. A structured, "rational" fall, later ending up in a recession. I'm not saying a crash will happen, obviously. But I would not be surprised, and I just say what I see. And what I see is, a "top" that looks different from everything recently before it. Side Note: It also looks the "Smart Money Index" has been on a consistent downtrend since 2018. I don't think this is my strongest point, so I left as a mere side note. Make of it what you will.
AMEX:SPY
by realcapmillen
2
JNJ: BUY THE DIPJNJ: an amazing long opportunity ~Every time JNJ has gone overbought on the RSI like it is right now, it has gone up very strongly ~JNJ is trading in a parallel uptrend for the most part since October 2020 (white area) with a few minor outlying price action movements. ^^ Price is touching the long term support line. Confirming the RSI foreshadowing. ~I expect resistance at 171, 174-176, 180. ^^Breaking 180 will let it soar to 185-187 (the top of the parallel uptrend)
NYSE:JNJ
by CheckMatted
1
2% Seems To Be The Precursor... $SPY🕵🏾‍♂️Since May 2021... the $SPY has had 5 (five) 2% dips that have corrected. During the last run up prior to this 18mo push, the $SPY dipped 3 times before taking the big dip. Granted the last move was a shorter time period, so I would think that the fact that it has more dips can be seen in correlation to its length. Prepare for a correction soon. In my head I'm thinking we can see a 5%-12% dip in the coming weeks... if not days... unless Uncle Sam continues to play this printing game things could get ugly for a lot of portfolios....
AMEX:SPYShort
by Riskitpaid
GBPUSD - Price entered Overbought Zone (RSI) - near Resistance Hi Traders! The market is in a shortterm Uptrend. As you can see on the left hand side, there is a descending Trendline. After the market made a Low (reference green arrow) it went up and broke the Trendline. This Uptrend has continued even more, until the RSi indicated, that the market is overbought. After the first RSI signal, the market moved up higher for 60 pips. Then it turned back. The Downtrend continued, until the market reached the last Low again. From there, it started raising. Additionally, it broke the Trendline. Since there, it is moving up. And just shortly before, the market gives the overbought signal. Now the only thing to find out is how long it'll take to turn back. As the last Low was a lower Low, we believe that this time, the price will make another lower Low. That's because the weekly chart also indicates some kind of Trend Change (to a Downtrend). The beginning of the down-movement could be identified by components like the structure, the volume or any patterns. Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
Short
by swissmoneymakers
2
ES Overbought, Again...and again.. and again...Looks just like it did in May and June before the mini-bears. MFI + RSI both peaking. Stupid new ATH. Can it get higher?! OFC! Closed out my SPY 465 October vertical 465/480 spreads by buying the short legs back for a $1K credit in early trade; I held the long 480 calls and re-entered today at the ATH, now short 20 October 462s and 50 October 467s for a net credit $9k. The 462s sold for >$2, more risky, juicy premium. So I got to use my long call legs twice, they are paid for! Neat trick, in parlance; 'legging into position.' The 467s are $18 OTM, after a long run-up like this these are likely to favor the seller IMO. NB: Selling calls entails considerable risk and is NOT a suitable strategy for most day traders! You can lose a lot more than you get in credits. Remember on 9 Nov when the damned thing gapped up 150 pips?! That's risk!! Short-sellers wiped out on opening gap, OW!! A monster gap seems unlikely at this price, but do NOT sell VCS into price weakness! Killer Rallies can wipe you out in minutes. Sell put spreads on weakness, if you dare. Trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DaddySawbucks
Kroger has history on its side for downward movementThis article includes bonus analysis of semi-rare occurrence. My Algorithm 2 has signaled a SELL 9 times on the daily chart for this stock. All nine times included simultaneous SELL signals on the same algorithms which triggered this morning. I have provided the usual target boxes, however, I have included additional target boxes related to historical movement after Algorithm 2 signals SELL. Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on August 24, 2021 with a closing price of 45.75. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 45.28 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.041% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.724% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.385% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 14 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:KRShort
by StockSignaler
RSI flashing overbought for CDNABased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on August 25, 2021 with a closing price of 78.47. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 76.99 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.886% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.0% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.694% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 25 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:CDNAShort
by StockSignaler
SPX is INSANE!! . . annnd Slightly Overbought?I mainly trade crypto but after having seen some parity with Bitcoin and SPX, I figured I'd drop this and see what comes back up. Would love to hear feedback on it but my general sentiments are that this thing looks toppy as H E Double Hockeystick!! I recently saw that margin debt is at an all time high, stocks as a % of household financial assets is also at an all time high and the Buffet indicator of composite value to GDP was about 90% higher than the long term trend of "fair valuation" which would be closer to 120% vs. the current 230% as of a recent reading. DYOR of course and don't take this as investment or financial advice but man, I'd be taking some off the table and putting it into something a bit more tangible. Good luck! “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” ~ George E.P. Box
SP:SPX
by FudBox
SELL FOR EURUSD 88 PIPSThis market has been in a downtrend and will continue to follow structure. It bounced off of my trendline and rejected major resistance. This is very bearish on top of it being overbought. There were bearish engulfing candles that showed signs of strength for the bears. There were large wicks forming on the smaller time frame as well. It is also showing it hit an important point on the FIBONACCI which shows a perfect touch of the .618. All of these signs show a downtrend and we will enter based on these confluences.
Short
by TheGiovannie
Sell for USDCHFWhy is this a sell? Market has been trending up for days and the market loves structure. This broke through resistance without a pullback. Due this move upwards it needs to find grounding to validate its move up. This means it will retest our support line to see if this move was valid or not. Think of the forex market like a rubber band. You can stretch it but it always comes back to its original structure. The stochastic is overbought and the macd is showing signs of weakness. This will be a good 67 pip sell.
Short
by TheGiovannie