Multiple Overbought Signals Pointing To A DipIn the case of CPRT, 5 of my algorithms signaled a SELL on April 6, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first. I really like this one because the RSI signaled SELL a few days prior and it is an early warning signal of near-term movement
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 3 Hour chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
Overbought
Is Take Two Overbought Too?In the case of TTWO, 6 of my algorithms signaled a SELL on April 6, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 2 Hour chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
Aspen Technology Looks OverboughtIn the case of AZPN, 6 of my algorithms signaled a SELL on April 6, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first. All algorithms in the current instance are signaling overbought.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the 2 Hour chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
S&P500 above upper Bollinger bandThe S&P500 has recently burst through the upper Bollinger Band but looking over the past 20+ years, it has never stayed above it for long.
Yes, it has risen along with the BB and even pushed through strongly at times, but never for very long.
Is it possible that we see a high-level consolidation over the next few years that keep equities relatively high?
Unfortunately, anything is possible in this off-kilter world, as long as the powers-that-be can maintain their ability to influence/manipulate/distort market pricing mechanisms. If the philosophical foundations of our society are off-kilter/unbalanced and the ideas & values we collectively hold... if those ideas and values degenerate and make us increasingly selfish and detached from from others, then collectively we become a splintering society and that is what we have today. It is one thing to believe one is right and to advocate for your ideas & values. But to seek a "better, more just world" while at the same time denigrating and bullying and attempting to silence those who disagree - that is the way to civil war. Some people advocate for that route.
But so long as people advocate that people who think/believe differently from you are enemies and need to be destroyed, there will never be a chance for the UNITY they aspire to. You can't have unity by subjugating people who think differently from you. You need to first see them as equals (b/c God resides within them, too) and then convince them of your point of view... respectfully, lovingly, and with tolerance.
My rant is over now. I see significantly more downside than upside in the broad market. And there WILL be turbulence in the coming years. No way to avoid that, considering the unsustainable debt & deficits worldwide. Time will tell.
ETHUSDT - short-term pullback then $2,500 ?Hello,
We all remain bullish for ETH in the longterm, that is the truth given the really solid fundamentals. But we have to think of protecting our assets and eventually capitalize on the profits instead of giving them to the markets.
So, the ETHUSDT pair successfully broke above the diagonal resistance and the horizontal one near $1,890, which of course was great. Now the next target for bulls will be to surpass another stable resistance at the previous weekly candle close near $1,937. We already saw a few rejections there on the lower timeframes.
Additionally, there is still a high chance that we see a double top formed on the 4-hour chart with the last peak from March 13 as its first high point. Stoch RSI is already overbought on both 4-hour and daily. So, what follows?
The uptrend remains intact on the daily/weekly TFs
Regards
NQ> 12700 in sight?This is a textbook broadening wedge (megaphone). Although price can breakout either above the top line or below the lower line my bias is short. line as the 4h time frame shows overbought on RSI. This wedge has been touched by price 3 time on both top and bottom and this is the requirement for validation. I don’t know yet if I will take this trade as it is rather gutsy but we shall see. Target price 12700.
BTC potential distribution on the 4h chartI know this will hit a lot of moonapes on the nerve, yet this is a potential set up that I think might play out, especially when looking at how more and more bullish news get more inflows to exchanges and supply is edging over demand over the last few weeks.
But. The RSI is making lower highs, the chart is more and more looking like distribution, and we're way overbought on the monthly as well, coming up 3 waves of up and down across 90 rsi already.
What I think is crucial to keep an eye out is - if we see a break to the upside and hit 60k , what the reaction is going to be, how much supply will come in the market again, and , on the more dangerous side, how much supply will come into the market if we hit the middle of the trading range around this time next week. I am aware of the fact that we've been super bullish ever since the pandemic hit, and most of the months were green, yet if we are to continue moving upwards and according to the S2F model, we might first see a bigger reaction , shake out a lot of weak hands, and then come roaring back up.
Would be interested to hear opinions on what you guys think, let me know.
Wednesday Trade Many have been asking about me why I have stopped posting. I have been active in the home buying process and will be moving in to my new home in a month. I am 23 and this is my first home purchase so I am doing a lot of budgeting and excel work to plan for financial success. I apologize for the inactivity but here is a set up I put myself In by accident.
I tried day trading ABBV on Tuesday, but the price kept going up and I saw this trend on the one hour chart and decided to hold my position as it does not expire until Friday.
MACD is showing a decline in bullish divergence, while D+ is showing increase in bearish divergence.
RSI is high indicating the stock is over bought and 3x confirm is firing off sell signals like crazy
My strike price is $105 a share and I see it nearing that today.
RUNEUSD Short Reasons to sell
Overextension of the RSI on the 4hr
Bearish DIV on 1hr and 2hr
Last time we saw a move like this was 04 Nov 2020 with a 20% correction happening
Strong resistance at $6
Head and shoulders still intact (but subject to change as we are in a bull run and this is a bearish pattern) low success rate in bull runs
Could see price revisit $4.80
Reasons to buy
Very strong bullish daily candle with a breakout of the descending channel
Doji at support level on 25th March
Good news came out in regards to ASGARDEX/Multichain going live soon
Energy's volume confirming trendTechnical Short-term Analysis
We have a new potential uptrend line drawn in the chart.
RSI is showing some divergence as it has reached the level from the beginning of February. However; I would take this divergence with a grain of salt, as it did reach Overbought levels and did not break the 40 level on the RSI (typical bullish behavior).
OBV has a clear uptrend, supporting the uptrend in price.
Trade Setup
Would sell a partial position if we break the ~new potential uptrend~.
Would sell the rest if we break the 50sma.
Hope this helps!
Finally in the zone of interestFrom overbought ATH around 61780 price fell down to oversold and showing us bullish divergence on 4H RSI. When we consider strong support FIBO zone around 52.4K we get great probability for trade with minimal risk. Longs positions are starting stabilize too. (green line above charts). After all of that I will still opening only a small position of my account to leave room for further maneuvering :D Because the price CAN have many obstacles upwards (56500,59300,60000 and ATH.)
15% of account i long at market price.
Comment below where you will buy or maybe where you will short: D
And if you agree like.
I will update this idea in close future so if you want, follow me.
MYRG joins list of my near-term shortsI have changed up how to best display projected movement. In the case of MYRG, 5 of my algorithms signaled a SELL on March 19, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the Daily chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
GC goes up to supply zone then back to 1700Gold I expect to go to 1750-1760 before dropping back to 1700
- upward wedge indicating reversal
- strong supply zone
- upward wedge vertex confluent with supply zone (I love when things conflue :)
- RSI will likely be overbought or show bear divergence.
I drew a possible price path scenario after supply zone is hit
If you like this idea please support me by giving a thumbs up! Please leave comments or ideas too :)
Ms. Bunny.
CB Pro - Delaying The Inevitable For ADA?
As an ADA holder, and someone who is general long on Cardano... I have loved the CB Pro hype. But I'm also worried that it's only going to delay the inevitable pull back from this last major run.
Let's break down the 1 week candles.
PAST
The run that started last March (2020) ended in ADA being overbought for 77 days.
As expected with an overbought stock/crypto - the price proceeded to correct.
Price dropped down 46% and hit the .382 fib retracement line
PRESENT
The run that started in November 2020 has yet to have a major pull back
During that run ADA has been overbought for 91 days
The Stochastic RSI started to tick down (as expected)
THEN THE CB Pro news drops and we get a major pump
ADA still flirting in the overbought range... could still see a drop
I'm worried that the CB Pro pump is going to give a false sense of security and we are still in for a bit of a correction. Maybe the CB Pro pump means the correction won't be as sever, but I don't think we are out of the woods yet. I would love to be proven wrong... but I would also love for ADA to go on discount and pick up some cheap coin!
BTC correction overdue, Oscillators at extremes, Median line hitBTC has been on an amazing run this year, Seems like nothing can stop it. However it feels like a correction is overdue. The question is; will BTC smash through this median line and make its way to the top of the channel or will it correct and retest the channel shown in red?
Key points:
Oscillators are at extreme highs (but they can stay this way for a long time!)
Last time the RSI was this high was at the top of the 2013 bull run and the MACD has never been this high
The median line of the long term channel has just been hit
Bias remains bullish long term
A retest of the red channel would be around $25,000
RSI almost at all time highs & MACD at all time highs:
Trade with caution. I'm not buying BTC here, but I'm certainty not shorting it either. Instead I'm locking in some BTC profits and looking for opportunities in the alts. Hopefully we're at the point in time where the alt season starts really warming up.
Never Trust. Verify.
D.Y.O.R . Not Financial Advice, this is my trading journal.
Always remember: Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.
The Regular Divergence (2) Stock price is lower low, but indicator is higher low. The price touches the support trend line.
Tips:
This is index, not a stock. But the tips should apply as well.
2013 dec 13, price and stochastic have divergence.
Stochastic is to value price momentum.
The divergence is a regular divergence. Means the price will bouce back. Here is for price lower low, but indicator higher low.
Stochastic works only for a range price move. For strong trend, not working. Here the indicator value is very low, and the stock not in a strong trend swing, means oversold. More probably to bounce back.
The stock runs in a very long range. The price drops almost on the support trend line.
Over all these, a strong buy hint is here.
Russel (RTY) - get ready to shortRussell futures ready to drop.
- upwedge
- overbought RSI
- Riding upper bollinger band for a while now
This is a pretty simple trade plan. Enter short if price breaks lower end of up wedge .
Aggressive entry = on break of wedge
Conservative entry on retest of wedge
Please hit thumbs up if this idea interesting and please leave comment.
The Hidden Divergence (2)Stock price and indicator have hidden divergence. Price is lower high, but indicator is higher high
Tips:
This is forex, not a stock. But the tips should apply as well.
2013 Nov 5, price and stochastic have a hidden divergence.
Stochastic is to value price momentum. Also can be treated as if stock overbought or oversold.
The divergence is a hidden divergence.
The hidden divergence means the price will continue the trend.
Here the trend is downtrend, means probably price will go down.
2013 Nov 5, stochastic showed overbought, possibly price go down.
The price also touched almost 50 ma, possibly price reverse down.
The price also touched almost resistance trend line, possibly price reverse down.
It is below 200 ma, should bias on downtrend. Plus this hidden divergence, it is a sell hint.
The Hidden Divergence (1)Stock price and indicator have hidden divergence. This maybe means the price will extend the trend.
Tips:
This is forex, not a stock. But the tips should apply as well.
2014 Jun 6, price and stochastic have a hidden divergence.
Stochastic is to value price momentum. Also can be treated as if stock overbought or oversold.
The divergence is a hidden divergence. A hidden divergence is for a price higher lower, but indicators are lower low. Or for a price lower high but indicators are higher high.
The hidden divergence means the price will continue the trend.
Here the trend is uptrend, means probably price will go up.
2014 jun 6, stochastic showed oversold, possibly price bounce back.
The price also dropped almost on 50 ma, possibly price bounce back.
It is below 200 ma, should bias on downtrend. But here is a buy hint, so can buy , but not a very strong one.
The Regular Divergence (1)Stock price is lower low, but indicator is higher low. This divergence can be a trading opportunity.
Tips:
This is forex, not a stock. But the tips should apply as well.
2014 apr 28, price and stochastic have divergence.
Stochastic is to value price momentum. Use 8,3,3 as the parameter can wipe out some market noise.
The divergence is a regular divergence. Over 200 ma, should have bias of doing uptrend. Hence, for regular divergence, should only trade when price is lower low, but indicators is higher low.
If below 200 ma, should be reverse, which is for regular divergence, should only trade when price is higher high, but indicator is lower high.
The price also dropped on 50 ma, more probable to bounce back.
Stochastic works only for a range price move. For strong trend, not working. Here the value is about 20, and not in a strong trend swing, means oversold. More probable to bounce back.
There is also a horizontal support below the price.
Over all these, a strong buy hint is here.
RSI overbought, pullback can be expectedRSI overbought --> 76
pullback is expected
entry price around 42, lower then current price for assurance
stop loss 45
take profit: 34 and 28
going long, RSI highly overboughtentry 4.85--> above current price for assurance
stop loss: 4.06
take profit: 6.90 and then also 10.70