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Overbought

DexCom Inc - Short OpportunityAs a beginner, I'm trying to learn everything I can about investing for the long term, but also trading in the intermediate and short term. With some successes and failures now under the belt I figure I would share my next opportunity. DexCom's recent earnings release surprised the hell out of analysts, rocketing up 27% on that day and still rising now. Hence, my next short opportunity. A stock continually pushing a 52 week high has no reference point for resistance, therefore it's best to rely on indicators and the trusty candlestick patterns. The volume has been dropping steadily since the earnings, pushing into overbought territory it's never seen before. At the sight of a bearish shooting star, with no increase in volume, go short! Set yourself some reasonable profit margins and stops. Chances are it will test the $185.20 it opened at after earnings, but if you want to be more cautious utilize Fib Retracements (38.2% to 61.8%) from it's peak. Remember, don't be greedy and lock in profits when you reach your goals.
NASDAQ:DXCMShort
by TrendsAreSexy
SPX: Possible Paths to ATH from 2nd of Three DrivesOF course this is pure guesswork and sheer speculation. Maybe the ATH is already in on Friday. Although futurez are up as I write this, their fair values point to nearly the same prices we saw near the close Fri PM. I marked this chart idea as Neutral, although it's really short-term bearish and longer-term bullish, until it becomes Bearish again in 2020. A lot of new money will have to flow in to push higher from here, market is already in overbought condition. It is a 3-Drive pattern, and an EW Ending Diagonal Triangle (see Mark Rivest post on the EDT for detailed insight- very fine analysis, kudos Mark and ty!): I show two alternate paths in my idea. Many others, of course are possible: Although overbought atm, but irrational exuberance could simply parabola up to the 1.62 Fibo at 3124, before distribution; or a bull wave pullback could begin this week and carry index down to retest the lower channel TL (in pitchfork). A last desperate parabolic climb to stratospheric prices is likely to occur in January, two years since the last time we saw that in Jan 2018. Expect a pullback soon in Nov, a terrific bullup to ultimate ATH, and another big break in Feb/Mar for Fib time and price. IDEA: Just buy UVXY to play this rotation; accumulate VIX ETF shares when VIX <12. UVXY is the Proshares 1.5x ETF; when Vix gains/loses $2, ETF gains/loses $3. On the last explosive Third Drive to the Top the VIX could get crushed to sub-10, as it was in Dec 2017 when it touched $9. Do not buy it too soon! NB: You can also buy call options on VIX itself if you want max leverage and have strong appetite for risk. I suggest getting a LEAP call if you do; on Friday the April 2020 $20 call was $2.30 with Vix at $12.30. It's a pretty fair risk/reward, considering that in Feb 2018 VIX jumped from $9 to $29. High price on VIX was $70 on 10-01-2008. This is not trading or investment advice, it is rank, sheer speculation on my part. Gamble on the futurez at your own risk! GLTA!
TVC:SPX
by DaddySawbucks
4
CTRA BUY?Contura Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CTRA), Time To Buy? If you are in the money making game probably you have one question in your mind: How can I pick the next stock to invest in or to trade with? Honestly, it`s not easy, but luckily you have multiple chooses in front of you. Firstly, and this is a harder way, you can spend days of researching through thousands of publicly traded companies and expert advises and opinions. However, there is an easier way to. For instance, you can look at the stocks that smart money investors are collectively bullish on. The idea is next: Where the smart money goes, profits are flows. Smart money, AKA hedge funds, and other institutional investors and professional traders usually invest large amounts of money and time, and they have to conduct due diligence while choosing their next stock to invest in, and trade with. The truth is that they don't always get it right, but, on average, their picks historically generated stronger returns from 90% of retail, sessional traders. Especially after adjusting for known risk factors. Speaking about hedge funds guys, let’s take a look at their recent activity with Contura Energy Inc. (NYSE: CTRA) Let us be clear, CTRA is not among the most popular stocks, but it was in 22 hedge funds portfolios at the end of June. A total of 22 of the hedge funds are bullish on this stock. At the same time there is a change of -31% from March. Since CTRA has experienced a decline in interest from hedge fund managers, logic holds that there is a sect of fund managers that decided to sell off their entire stakes last quarter. Still, the largest shareholder of CTRA, with a stake worth $118.5 million reported as of the end of March, is Whitebox Advisors. It is worth to mention that CTRA stock returned -46.1% during the third quarter and underperformed the market. That is right, CTRA is deeply oversold at the moment. Note this- At The Moment- because the price can still be in the red for some time, but rebound are coming. The oversold levels are among the best ones to jump in and potentially to make solid returns. Same levels have the best Risk/Reword ratio, and as you know higher risk is to buy something what is already at the pick and overbought, comparing with buying at oversold levels such as this one. From Technical Analysis point of view the price is near 3Y low. The absolute low is at 16.59 level. The RSI, on weekly chart, with his current levels, between 20 and 30, suggesting that rebound can occur. At the same time this is a signal that the price is oversold and in a down trend. According to technical analysis the most reliable buy signal is when the RSI cross over 30 levels. Current value is 27. On a daily chart RSI is above 40 level, and the support level at 22.58. Current price is 23.69 and potentially can test support level in near time. It is crucial to monitor this level and the RSI movement in order to find the best possible entrance. Potential target can be found at 32.45 level. According to analysts gathered on CNN money expected up movement is up to +52% at 36 level. Example of trading plan can be with S/L at 22.50 (-5%) and T/P at 32.40 (+26%).
NYSE:CTRALong
by DejanDjekic
SPY Daily Chart - Overbought Bearish Divergence Short PotentialAs you can see in the chart, SPY has once again run into resistance at the $302 price range. The slow stochastic is overbought & seems to be turning over. There is also a bearish divergence forming between the price & RSI indicator. A 61.8% Fibonacci extension target gives us a price target that is near the current support line. It looks like a good time to take a short position in the SPY (VIX is also down around 14, good time to expect some more volatility).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Chartimistic
AAPL tested 238 resistance 5th day in a row, good setup to shortNASDAQ:AAPL AAPL is still near the resistance, only because of the strong earnings, good news from the market, partial deal with china, etc... Yesterday ended up against the SPY, which should be a good indicator, today ended up a bit up, because of the good NFLX earnings. Good setup to short: - loosing momentum - volume - weaker - closed against the SPX yesterday - RSI crossed below 75 - CCI below 200 - Stochastics %K crossed below %D, above 80 - 238 test failed 5th day in a row target 224-225
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by R2ross
Has Metcalfe's Law Stopped Working for Bitcoin?Metcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent. Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin , using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have been performed over recent years which validate this and have used various derivations of Metcalfe’s Law. Note: this indicator sticks to the original Metcalf’s Law. Prior to 2018, every time Bitcoin was above the Metcalfe’s Law fair price (calculated using a default “A” of 0.5 here), a bubble had formed, and price quickly reverted back down to the mean. Nonetheless, since February 2018, Metcalfe's Law Fair Price has remained below the actual Bitcoin price, suggesting Bitcoin is currently overvalued. There may be a few reasons for this: 1. Possibility A: Bitcoin may still be extremely overvalued. Since the December 2017 peak, Bitcoin has only reverted to the Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price briefly during the December 2018 bottom. If this case is true, there could be further to fall unless DAA numbers pick up to fill the gap. 2. Possibility B: The introduction of side-chains, private transactions and the Lightning Network may have fundamentally altered the effectiveness of using DAA to value Bitcoin . As more daily transactions are completed off-chain, or on large platforms/exchanges which use fewer addresses, the relative number and growth of DAA may be misrepresented and artificially low. In this case, DAA as it is reported today is no longer useful in assessing the fair value of Bitcoin with Metcalfe’s Law and this Indicator is effectively useless. 3. Possibility C: Neither of the above are true. We are just in an anomalous period in which price and Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price have deviated from the mean for an extended period (and will meet again in the future, potentially at a higher price). 4. Possibility D: Metcalfe’s Law doesn’t really work for Bitcoin . I am inclined to believe Possibilities “C” and “D” are unlikely. Given the way Bitcoin infrastructure is being developed and used in 2019, Possibility “B” seems the most likely, as this case is supported by the fact that a number of other metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently on the lower side of “fair value” (including Dynamic Range NVT Signal). If Possibility “B” is false, or the impact of private network address usage is negligible, the Bitcoin network may not in a healthy state, with DAA values basically flat for the last 3 years. Regardless, Possibility “A” remains a candidate. Only time will tell. It will be interesting to check back on this indicator in 12-24 months time. Hopefully this indicator has been proven redundant by then.
BNC:BLX
by capriole_charles
3
Dynamic Range NVT Signal for Long-term Bitcoin ValuationABOUT DYNAMIC RANGE NVT SIGNAL NVT Signal (Credit: woobull.com) is akin to a "PE" ratio for Bitcoin, and can be used to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on the relative value of transactions sent across the network. This indicator includes a 2 year moving average and standard deviation to identify outlier values, instead of declaring a static high-low range for relative valuation. THEORY A dynamic "high-low" range was chosen for the following reasons: - Bitcoin is only 10 years old, it is likely that relatively "high" and relatively "low" NVT values will change with time, as have PE ratios over the last century. - Some transactions are now made off-chain (eg. Liquid Network's private side-chain which is used by many major exchanges). If this trend continues, we can expect "normal" NVT ranges to increase with time (as the relative portion of public on-chain transaction values decreases). CALCULATION - NVT = Circulating Market Cap / 90 average On-chain Transaction Value* - Overbought (default): NVT > 2-year mean + 2*standard deviations. I.e. NVT Signal is in the top 2.5% of values for the prior 2 years. - Oversold (default) NVT < 2-year mean.** *Data source: Blockchain.info, estimated transaction value does not include returned to sender as change. **Oversold under 2-year mean was chosen due to the skewness of NVT Signal, it is not quite normally distributed. For example: NVT Signal has never been less than the 2-year mean - 2* standard deviations. This may change in the future. NOTES ON USAGE - Use with care. Bitcoin can remain "overbought" or "oversold" for extended periods (eg. 2015-2016). - As Bitcoin ages, the validity of NVT Signal will need to be monitored. Particularly with respect to potentially increasing use of side-chains, private transactions and potentially the lightning network. - It is likely that a 2-year “look back period” for calculating mean and standard deviation will not be sufficient in the decades to come. As Bitcoin matures and stabilizes (some time in the future), a longer "look back period" should probably be used. To allow for this, the defaults for this indicator can be easily adjusted.
BNC:BLXLong
by capriole_charles
20
EURO-DOLLAR giving a chance again to ride down the Downtrend1) Trend Analysis - Still in the downtrend (Didn't break any significant highs yet and the MA is still facing downwards) 2) Resistance Analysis - At the confluence of horizontal resistance (represented by the broken-green-line) and trend-line resistance (represented by dotted-blue-line). 3) Candle Analysis - No strong bulls yet. A big bull bar but no follow-through on closing basis. Big bull making a steep slope (represented by a small brown trendline in the charts) and probably showing that the market is in OVERBOUGHT AREA. For more information, check out my previous post on the same topic... Links in the "Related Ideas" section. For traders who want to know more about my techniques or have any queries, you can chat with me directly through private chats. I will reply you back as fast as I can. Kindly like this post . Also, please do comment in the comment sections below . And I will love it if you follow me . Disclaimer - All the ideas posted on these posts are published in good faith and for general educational purposes only. Satx98 does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. Any action you take upon the ideas posted by me, is strictly at your own risk. I will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of my ideas.
Short
by Satx98
Gap Inc. Appearing to Reject 200 EMA Once AgainOn the 4-hour chart of NYSE:GPS , price action has interfered with the 200 Exponential Moving Average a numerous amount of times. And, almost every time it has, a reversal and price swing has occurred. This latest one happened after a price surge caused by a normal stochastic oscillator divergence, sending price action straight through linear resistance. Old resistance becomes new support; the foundation of the technicals I've used to price target the short exit. Gap Inc. is in a heavy sell off, as it has been for months on end. In some ways, this recent surge may be seen as standard price oscillation or even a short squeeze. The technicals right now are supporting a continuation of this collapsing trend. Entry Price: $19.24. Stop Loss: $20.55 (Resistance formed by movement before a downward gap) Target Profit: $16.00 Methods of Capturing Gains Short stock. Short call credit spread. Naked puts. Put strike biased straddle. Bearish strangle. *Note: There is an infinite number of ways to capture bearishly favored gains. Be careful with the GPS weekly options because they have low volume, open interest, and liquidity, and can result in extremely unfavorable execution and fill pricing.
GShort
by DoozyTrader
AUDNZD - Extremely overbought - RBNZ in spotlightHello Traders, This week the RBNZ will decide if they will hold interest rates steady after they look a 50 basis point cut during their last meeting. This shocked the market as they had forecast only a 25 basis point cut previously, therefore the NZD took a larger loss. This week the RBNZ is expected to hold rates steady, on the other hand, the RBA is looking at an additional rate cut. This means we could see some strength going back into the NZD. The AUDNZD is also extremely overbought, as you can see this has provided a great opportunity to sell from previously. Keep in mind: If the RBNZ do cut interest rates rates, this trade will not work out. Any questions or comments please let us know, www.forexstoreau.com
Short
by ForexStoreau
AUDJPY Short Term Bearish Analysis AussieJPY had a straight Bullish run for several days now, and on the daily it is now at past support that can become future resistance. if you take a look here at www.mataf.net and you pull up the Aussie Daily chart and you pull up the JPY Daily chart you will see that the Aussie is hitting a past support that can become future resistance and the the JPY is hitting a past resistance that can become future support so now when combined as the AUDJPY it becomes very strong that it has a good chance going down short term. Now in order to confirm the move to put some more odds in m favor I'm waiting for the hourly chart to break down from its most recent support level that it has formed then I will look to enter going for about 60 pips or so till the next level of resistance that can become future support... I hope this makes sense to you if yes let me know, and even if not tell me why you think differently tell me what you see that iam missing. Thank You!
Short
by ElyaStein