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Overbought

NCI NASDAQ's Cryptocurrency Index SHORTOn a 2H chart, the index has had a 125% trend up since October averaging 25% per month but accelerating. I wanted to see if there are any signs of an impeding correction given the uptrend's duration. The past week added about 10% which seems unsustainable. The RSI is not yet in high overvalued /bought territory but is on the approach. The predictive algo indicators may suggest some upside but when zooming in the trendlines are relatively flat. The candlesticks are showing prominent topping wicks. The Bollinger bands show a " upper band march" after the run up of the past week. Overall, at least for the immediate to intermediate term, I see no upside for this index. As applied to my trading, I will take no new long positions of BTC and ETH. I will consider taking partial profits at the highs of the upcoming several days at 10% each time. At some point when a reversal is more definitive I may take short positions in them.
NASDAQ:NCI
by AwesomeAvani
Price overextension: misconceptions and common mistakesPrice overextension remains a widely misunderstood concept in trading, causing both novice and seasoned traders to make errors in their decision-making. This misinterpretation often leads to placing trades in the wrong direction or, equally detrimental, overlooking profitable opportunities. In essence, price overextension signifies that the market has undergone a rapid and excessive movement in one direction. Such movements are often perceived as unsustainable. Numerous indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, Bollinger Bands and many other, attempt to identify such "abnormal" price movements so traders could capitalize on them. Despite variations in statistical methods and calculations, their common goal is to detect instances where price went or down too much and is likely to reverse. In this discussion, I will use Relative-Strength-Index (RSI), a popular indicator, to convey my perspective on price overextension. While some traders argue for customization, the elusive question of "how" often remains unanswered. From my experience, there are no universally perfect settings that consistently yield optimal results. I’ll draw my examples from the recent SPY bar chart (February 2024). The first misconception The first misconception is that if price is overextended it is time to immediately start looking for a trade in the opposite direction. The most important phrase here is “start looking”. Many beginners misinterpret this as an invitation to commence trading, leading to the premature initiation of short positions during perceived market "overextension" and vice versa. So, the first and foremost important advice is to never try guessing top/bottom based on one indicator or gut feeling. Simple as it seems I remember many times breaking this rule myself because the temptation was too strong. It rarely ended up well. On the graph, I've highlighted three recent instances where the RSI exceeded 70 (indicating overbought conditions). What stands out is that, following each occurrence, the price surged significantly before consolidation set in, inflicting losses upon short traders. Even experienced traders, who look for confluence of signals, may fall into this trap. In the first two examples, bearish candlestick patterns failed to prevent subsequent price increases. Most likely, those candles were “created” by weak hands traders, who tried to short market, while it was actually controlled by strong buyers. These instances could have been avoided by considering the daily graph, revealing a robust bullish context – price was in an uptrend, one-time-framing up on weekly. There were couple of moments when bears gained short term control (Tuesdays 13th and 20th) but they never could take the previous week low; bulls always confirmed their control. The second advice is to avoid trading against higher level context. While sometimes those trades might work the result is usually mediocre and most of the times you’ll simply lose. If you really wish to trade against context you need to construct a solid dossier of evidence, supporting your trade. The second misconception What is the second misconception? It is that when price overextended it is not time to go with the market. In this scenario, traders refrain from initiating long trades after RSI indicates overbought conditions, potentially causing them to miss profitable opportunities. It might not hurt your account but who likes missing good opportunities? Surprisingly, seizing these trades correctly is not much harder than any other trade. It simply requires prudence and discipline and getting rid-off cognitive biases. For example, in the second example on the graph a trader could win up to 1% if he played off gap-up open after seeing that the new price has found acceptance. Conclusion It is possible to build a profitable strategy that relies on “price overextension” concept. However, it demands more than a cursory examination of a single indicator and adherence to textbook candle patterns. Personally, I reached a point where I entirely abandoned the use of RSI and similar tools because, instead of providing clarity, they seemed to cloud my thinking. Opting for a more effective approach involves keenly observing actual market behavior, which often defies conventional expectations. Study of high-level contexts, understanding key levels, and discerning confluence in price action signals on lower timeframes consistently prove invaluable. This method helps steer clear of common pitfalls and contributes to enhancing overall trading results.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
BTC / Bitcoin - Consensus of Indicator Analysis / ForecastOn this highly reliable weekly chart I have placed and added various indicators. My review of them is on the chart. Solely from the perspective of my review and analysis and not at all setting aside the idea of BTC to $250K in 2024, Bitcoin may be overbought with a high RSI and MACD about to cross lines over a relatively thin histogram. Price is higher than the 3rd VWAP band line 3 standard deviations above the mean of the anchored VWAP and the mass index is above the threshold for it to fall to trigger a reversal Accordingly, I will not add to my position and will hold what I have. Further, i will take a look at the NASDAQ Cryptocurrency Index and if it appears to be similar to BTC which is the biggest market cap within that index, I will not add to ETHUSD or any of the other "stable coins". I am prepared to short BTC on a forex exchange with leverage once an established trend is seen on a 60-180 minute chart with checking ADX and DI +.
by AwesomeAvani
BTC - Still Bullish...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. BTC is currently hovering around the upper bound of the orange channel. 📈 The bulls will remain in control, unless the last low marked in red at 50,400 is broken downward. 📉 In such a scenario, the bearish correction would start leading to a movement till 48,000 demand zone. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
8
DXY - Over-Bought Zone ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 DXY has been overall bullish , trading within the rising wedge pattern in red. At present, DXY is approaching the upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. Moreover, it is retesting a strong resistance zone marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #DXY is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a top bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:DXY
by TheSignalyst
A Little Bearish on Verizon StockWe received two signals for Verizon stock based on the closing price on February 2, 2024 indicating the stock will likely drop over the next 6-20 days. My SAG Gauge Conservative algorithm bearish signal has occurred 211 times. A bearish signal has successfully seen the stock drop below the signal closing price over the next 10 trading days 95.7% of the time. The typical delay, or time the stock does not immediately move downward has generally only been 1 day. This means the stock could move up on Monday, but likely begin its decline as late as Tuesday of this upcoming week. The other bearish signal is my Up and Down MACD, which signals before a typical MACD cross would occur. Instead of signalling at the cross, I added additional parameters that trigger shortly after weakness is confirmed and well ahead of the cross most people will trade on. For VZ stock, it is accurate in determining reversals 94.50% of the time. This one is interesting in that delays that have occurred result in less than a 1% move. This means the signal price on Friday (closing price) of 42.13 would most likely not see the stock move above 42.60 before it moves below 42.13. In this instance I am looking for a drop well below 42.13. Simultaneous signals of both algorithms at the same time has occurred 60 times. 58, or 96% of the time the stock has dropped. Simultaneous signals are something I prefer to see as it is more bolstering than solo signals. The last time these two signals occurred together and failed was March 22, 2000. The stock failed to trade downward over the next 27 days. Day 28 finally went into the red, but was a failure in my 10 and 25 day studies. I am looking for a possible move up on Monday/Tuesday at the latest before we start to move down. A success will occur if the stock goes below 42.13. Historically, simultaneous signals send the stock down to at least 42.09 (which is a very weak success). The 10 day target is a 1.3% - 4% drop over the next 6-9 days. The 25 day target is 2.4% - 6% over by days 13-22. It is unclear where the stock will go after this movement occurs.
NYSE:VZShort
by StockSignaler
Bitcoin(BTC): First $43K Then $32K?Another week is here, and last week we had some massive moves on the market. (Where we dumped as low as $38,500 and then recovered from there, eventually not securing that $40K zone as of now.). That's all natural movement from bitcoin, as we are witnessing a correction to the upper zones (near $43,500), where a lot of liquidity is currently lying. Despite all that, we are still looking here for that $34K zone to be reached, so keep your eyes open for another potential attempt to breakdown from the 40K zone (which eventually will start the downward movement). Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
Avalanche(AVAX): Amazing Short Opportunity For Sure! The coin has great potential for some downward movement here, for sure, with price reaching the major resistance zone, which we will not be able to breakout from with our first attempt. As now we have started the rejection phase, we might see even further movement here for sure to lower support! The first sign of potential reversal is RSI entering back in normal zones (after being in overbought zone) Swallow Team
Short
by SwallowAcademy
Solana(SOL): We Are Looking To Short!SOL has been on our radar ever since that 40% gain we achieved, but as of now, on a daily basis, we are seeing a nice indication of a potential downward movement soon!! With the price being multiple times outside of the overbought zone, we see that the price is feeling pushy, where currently it is attempting to form another zone outside of the overbought zone. We are not sure how long this kind of movement will last, but at any point we see that the middle line of the BB can be broken, which can start the dump and a decent correctional movement. Swallow Team
Short
by SwallowAcademy
4
Ethereum(ETH): Will We Head Towards $3500 Soon? We are back with the ETH coin, where we see that after that major breakout near $2150 we had, a clean re-test price seems to be ready for another bullish movement sooner or later. As we are getting closer to the close of the yearly candle price, it seems to act like a "calm before the storm," where the price is making minimal moves but still teasing both buyers and sellers. We are looking at a bigger picture here for a potential bullish movement after breaking that upper resistance line (orange line). Once. we break and secure it we should be good for long-term movement towards $3500
Long
by SwallowAcademy
Bitcoin(BTC): We Had A Dump, Did You Sell Like We Did?The new week is here, and the first day is looking promising for bulls, but is it enough for a push?? Let's be honest here: prices were way to high and still are (pre-halving push is not good for BTC) We are seeing this as a nice start of downward movement here and we see almost zero to none chances of price reaching $50K as of now (but who knows, we might change our mind about it as we have to judge the coin in its current state) One point of interest for us is also the $45K zone, which might be re-tested one time before further movement, so eyes open at that zone. Overall, we are still seeing further movement to the FWB:36K zone at least.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
Bitcoin(BTC): Another Rejection At $45,000With the new weekly opening, we see another week (the last one) closing below the strong resistance zone at $45K. Resistance is holding strong, and the new weekly is showing yet further weakness. Sure, ETF news and rumours are putting some uncertainty into traders, but nevertheless, one thing is sure: wealthy people would benefit more from rejecting or postponing the ETF. With that being said, we are still looking for BTC to go into the liquidity grab zones. We personally are still short.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
2
Bitcoin(BTC): Fake ETF Approval = Markets Dumped!Here we are touched nicely by that FWB:48K zone that we have been telling you about and also which activated for us the third and last entry on our short position. We are now looking to see no more further growth here and more downward movement, for sure! As we mentioned already, we see that fake news we had was like a small test run. People have seen an approval, yet markets dumped even before the confirmation of it being fake announcement. Traders are shorting and going by the rule of "Buy The Rumor, Sell The News." Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
2
Bitcoin(BTC): Markets Are Extremely Greedy!! Be Careful!!The second day of the week started with some breakouts from $45K, which has been one struggle zone for many days already. Now that we have broken that zone and resulted in another big green candle (which lately has been common), we have entered into the "Extreme Greed" situation with the marekts! Only based on that index can we assume that we will see a drop, but this is one good additional confirmation for us that we are going to see a nice potential downfall very soon! Greed and Fear Index: Extremely Greedy / 76 Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
2
Dogecoin(DOGE): Has reached Major Resistance / Rejection? DOGE is at a pivotal moment, as it confronts a significant resistance zone. After a substantial rally, the RSI is telling us that the market is overheating and entering overbought territory. This could indicate that a correction is near the corner. We're watching for a decisive move; a sustained break above the resistance could signal continued bullish momentum, while a rejection might lead to a retracement towards the lower support levels at $0.08230 and potentially to $0.07535, which are our current targets as we stay below this resistance zone. As always, we'll look for confirmation in the price action and other indicators before making any moves.
Short
by SwallowAcademy
18
Bitcoin: We Are Entering Re-Accumulation PhaseWith the expansion phase being on the higher high zones, we are soon to enter the re-accumulation zone, which means we might see some sharp movements soon and a potential movement to the lower zones to liquidate the majority of the long position before finally entering the bullish market! We are still 4 months away (around 127 days) from the next halving, and recently we witnessed a nice expansion phase that resulted in a ROI of 175%. This is more than enough for the expansion, which means we are going to enter very soon into the re-accumulation phase. Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
Bitcoin(BTC): Did not secure $45K zoneThird day of the week, and BTC is going to attempt another breakout here! With last daily candle closing below $45K zone, we did not get confirmation of a breakout from that resistance zone, which is good for sellers (and us as well) But the new daily is already showing some strength, potentially going for another attempt to secure that zone! What's also crossing our attention is that while it is going for another attempt, it is also pushing to stretch the Bollinger Bands, which, usually in combination with resistance, has been a good strong spot! The plan is still the same!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
2