131.5/132 AUG 3rd bear vertical on GLD in response to FOMCGLD, SPYDR Gold Shares ETF backed by the physical commodity, has increased dramatically following the dovish Fed sentiment out of yesterday's June FOMC meeting. Central banks worldwide have begun to indicate that they are willing to begin cutting rates, or to resume Quantitative Easing (QE) and balance sheet expansion. As Chairman Powell shifted away from the "patient" stance and indicated that changes could be imminent, saying that "the case for more accommodative policy has strengthened," markets reacted accordingly.
Gold has risen on the premise that rate cuts are coming - with bond markets pricing in a 100% chance of at least one cut in the July FOMC meeting. As gold rises more, it does so on the pretense that there will be more monetary easing; if the sentiment in July isn't as dovish as hoped, then the price of gold, and thus the value of the GLD ETF, will decrease. Using the August 3rd expiry allows us to capture the reaction from the next FOMC meeting.
Technically, the bear case is prominent: GLD is clearly overbought for a myriad of reasons. On both the day and month charts, GLD is trading above the upper Bollinger Band, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse just flipped over the candles, both stochastics have readings over 75 and both the RSI and MFI indicate values over 80.
Done for a credit of 19 cents, there is a maximum profit of $19 reached below the short strike and max loss of $31 above the long strike, per contract.
