BTCUSDT 3 Chart Case StudyWe are going to study over the weekend how this pair moves.
We have a 4H - 30m - 5m chart opened.
We are going to study how price moves around our 50/100 sma
We are going to watch how the macd moves around the macd 0 level line and
the stoch 20/80 levels - blue dotted lines
The 4H is in-between the 50 and 100 sma. This I call an inner range. it has no real direction or momentum. When price breaks out of the inner range it will have direction and momentum. Watch this pair over the weekend and make copies of your chart with the camera in the lower right corner.
The 4H macd is above the 80 level. Price can go half way across to the 100 sma and fall back to the 50 sma because the macd is above the 80 level. Let's watch and see if it does.
Price may just go across to the 100 sma so let's watch if that happens and what the macd looks like during that.
If price does come back to the 50 sma two things can happen. It can break below the 50 sma and retest the swing low on the 4H. or price will try a second time to make it across to the 100 sma. Watch how the macd looks like during all of this and make sceenshots. We are not trading here we are just studing and educating ourselves how to use this indicator. As the 4H is doing all of this you want to be watching and documenting how the 1H and 5m charts look and how they are acting in these different situations. This is a great pair to teach you all of the ebb and flow of price and how the indicator reacts to it.
You are watching on the 30m and 5m how price moves around the 50/100 sma and how the macd is moving around the 80/20 levels and the 0 level line.
Overbought
BTCUSD - Bulltrap and Rollercoaster ahead + psychology analysisThis is no wizardry: don't look so much for cause-effect in the news, when the charts can offer a lot more insight:
The trading bots belonging to bigger and smaller whales are running on auto and manually, all to fine tune the milking of larger and smaller investors who think that now the crash ("correction") is finally over.
Their algorithms are well-designed and now adapting to more buying orders in order to lure even more fish into their BULLTRAP.
Yesterday, 6th Feb 2018, we already fell to 5800-6000 (depending on your sources) which nearly exactly corresponds to the dip on 12th Nov 2017.
Will we retest this area again?
Sure we will.
Revisiting 6000 and below might even cause more panic selling which will result in an even deeper fall to 5500 (25th Oct 2017) or 5200 (18th Oct 2017) or 4200 (5th Oct 2017) or 3600 (22nd Sep 2017) or 3000 (15th Sep 2017)
Not trying to paint it black, simply listed a few major dips in the last 5 months.
If you have observed the global crypto market cap volume in the recent weeks you have probably realized that pumps&dumps do differ in length, intensity and frequency.
Generally now normal investors are not only desperate but also confused and hopeful that BTC might be going to the moon again only to be deceived by a _longer_ upward motion and getting eaten by the sharks again later around 8000-8500.
Meaning that they simply want to build up more hope in crypto-investors by increasing the duration of uptrends.
Until 70% fall for the FOMO finally. Everyone would like to believe that crypto will moon anytime soon to the all-time-high of 19900 but this is merely just wishful thinking as historical charts nearly always show a 80-90% retrace after such a steep rise. Compare the 75% retrace from Dec 2013 to Jan 2015 (from 1000 to 250) - was a long correction, this time it shouldn't take that long.
Don't be fooled, the market is still bearish , controlled by bots, just cleverly disguising it with 'news'. And don't panic.
How many bulltraps will we face now? A few - just watch the charts - I don't have a crystal ball either to predict when exactly. How will the crypto market react to the G20 meetings in 2018?
Maybe things will stabilize around Chinese Lunar New Year 16th Feb 2018, maybe not, considering that now it got a lot harder for people in China to acquire crypto.
Some say that it's _not_ wallstreet vs. crypto but the old system hardliners won't just give in / give up easily.
Or not without profiting from the new development.
Regulations and FUD and obstacles in our way will be spread frequently, which will partly increase the popularity of crypto anyway since most people by now know that it's sometimes a good idea to investigate topics deeply that mainstream media, g0v and corporate representatives portray as 'bad' or 'concerning'. Especially if it could affect their financial pyramids in the future.
While the crypto market still has a lot of room to grow, considering visualizations such as: www.visualcapitalist.com
One could think all this represents "fear of change" on the part of large institutions, although it's more likely that they're already invested and don't want 70% of the herd to follow.
The same with wishful thinking on our part - don't just "hope for a good change" so we can go to the "moon".
Actively supporting this innovative technology is key. Get involved with projects, learn programming, get in touch with the teams.
The more strong projects there are, the more solid and diverse the whole crypto world becomes.
Basically they don't want to crash this market totally as they are already making tons of $$$ via bots moving in&out massive amounts and the high volatility which is a lot more fun for trading than stocks.
This is not professional investment advice.
Might be a good idea to use the next dip for a small / medium position, but not clear if it will be the last major dip or if it will dip even deeper.
BTCUSDT Returning to the previous channelMarket grew up significantly during this night, volume is also rising. BTC price went up and returned to the previous channel after the rebound from Fib 1 support level. In a very optimistic scenario it has chances to consolidate there after a small price decrease as it is in the overbought zone. Then important resistance level of Fib 0.786 will be broken and the price will head to the upper edge of the channel and after consolidation and bounce from a formed support around $8900 will broke upward the descending channel and may head to the next resistance level of Fib 0.618. This will be a critical moment for the market recovery. In the realistic scenario we may face with other manipulations and dumps, but overall significant volume rising is a good sign.
GBPUSD testing a major resistance : SHORT Price is approaching a major resistance that has already been rejected on the daily chart. The price respected the Fibonacci extension levels and RSI shows that price tends to be overbought at this major area. I would expect a major drop to the major support at 1.36 area. I would suggest then : SL at 1.39600 with a TP at 1.36181
Gold short?Hopefully everyone had a great 2017 and learned a lot!
The first idea for this year by me is to short gold. IMO gold needs to calm down after the short term rally. I see gold bearish until the moving averages are hit by the price action and a nice bear pullback has taken place.
This is just an idea, not advice!! Good luck everyone!!!
Cardano retrace potential to .50 fib?Bearish divergence. A hanging man candle. Overbought on the RSI and outside of the linear regression channel. Potential retrace to the solid support at the .50 fib and then a continuation to the median of the channel? Just putting my thoughts down on paper as I am new to analysis. I am not an expert. Just studying charts.
UK100 On Strong ResistanceUK100 is at the moment touching the strongest 7600 resistance line. There are now 2 topping tail which indicates rejection of closing the price higher. Also RSI(14) is currently nearing the overbought territory. If price can close around 7570 level, I'm planning to short it with profit target is somewhere around 7445, which is the previous strong support line.
NZD/USD : Daily Short** ( High R/R) Here is a nice potential short entry on NU
Accumulation of :
- Fib confluance
- Resistance zone
- Trendline retest
- Standard deviation
- Overbought & Moving average combo
There is 3 targets on the chart , I will put my stop Loss at entry point quickly .
You can follow me for more analysis !
XMR - Trend analysis (SHORT)Alright, looks like Monero (XMR) has been overbought and a short position would be the most optimal here.
We have crossed the support line which supported this current trend, and now the market is looking for the new support level.
Given the current base support line, I think a very reasonable target price would be $230.
Trade cautiously!
IOTA Gann Fan + Trend Analysis - SHORTIOTA was Overbought twice in a short period of time. There will be heavy volatility in the near future, and market consolidation is to be expected.
Given the current trends, I personally believe that shorting IOTA would be the best choice here. The price is nowhere near a 1/1 retracement, and is showing little signs of a reversal into a bullish trend in the (very) near future.
Also, with all the other coins I took a look at, it looks like a correction is imminent across the board. Be cautious!
I'll take a look back soon to help confirm/deconfirm what is being shown right now, but it's not looking too good.
ZECUSD - Trend Analysis + Gann Fan + Head/Shoulders (SHORT)Not lookin' too good for ZCash here.
Very clear bearish trends. Not even close to the 1/1 retracement angle to be considered at all bullish.
ZCash was overbought heavily at numerous points in recent history, and ZEC is still fighting the inevitable correction.
The uptrend wave on the right shoulder is a bulltrap, and that we're going to see ZCash heavily in the red in the near future.
Trade cautiously!
USD/JPY : H4 Sell Entry ** (Target 110)Hey guys whats up !
Here is a nice entry for UJ
Accumulation of :
- Resistance zone
- Standard deviation
-Overbought
-Abcd
- Possible HS formation
- Bearish structure
- Breakout and retest
There is 3 targets on the chart and a breakeven lvl .
Good luck and follow me if you want more analysis :) !