The S&P 500 From a DistanceSwitching up from #crypto, this is the S&P 500 since 1980. Would you buy this?
Overbought
Seven Percent Plus Drop In Cards For Ford?Ford Motor Company has climbed quickly in the previous month. Overall auto sales are in rough shape and could be this way for a while. According to the technical indicators and the historics, the stock has a good chance of coming back down to Earth which is laid out here. Ford loves to flirt around the 11 mark. Will it head back to it once more?
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought meaning the stock could drop in the near term.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2375 and the negative is 0.7026. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action has flattened out. I could not locate similar consolidation in this stock for such a prolonged period of time. While this activity is a bit of a wildcard, the positive vortex indicator oscillates up and down as time transpires. With it staying high for a while, it is due to head downward, meaning the stock would drop at least a little (1-4%) soon.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.15 and D value is 92.44. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the decline in the stock should begin within the next two trading days.
SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal occurred today which is another indicator of downward movement for the stock.
Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 98 times dating back to 1972. The stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days in ninety percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3.75% seventy percent of the time and fifty percent of the time loses 6%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a sizeable drop is coming.
The RSI, stochastic, and positive VI have been at their current or higher levels simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock since 1979. Even though the availability of data points is low, the rarity of such a feat is the biggest signal for short-term traders to consider. Over the next 30 days, the stock always drops at least 7.19% from the date all three indicators are at or above the current levels simultaneously. The median drop over this time frame is 10.17%.
If we look solely at the overbought RSI reading and its historics, the stock could drop in upwards of 8%. The RSI has been at or above its current level 139 times in its history. Over the course of the following 35 trading days, the stock retreats an average of 10.03% and a median of 8.27%.
Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 7% over the following 35 trading days. The best indicator is the flattening positive VI value and the simultaneously high levels of all three indicators. The SAG gauge signal and its historic information support a minimum of 3-5% drop in the near-term as well.
History Says Chevron (CVX) Is Set To Decline At Least 5%Chevron has climbed quick in the previous month. This could be due to hurricanes in the United States and/or OPEC manipulation. No matter the world and economic reasoning, the technicals have a response for this overexuberant movement; the stock will begin dropping soon. The history of this stock has been studied and the information is explained below.
The relative strength index (RSI) is at 80.3974. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is at an extreme level that has only occurred 26 times since 1973. The significance of this is outlined below and is the first signal of a pending downturn.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3839 and the negative is at 0.5046. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The both values are near extremes and this in conjunction with the extreme RSI reading will be covered in the SPECIFIC ANALYSIS section below.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 95.0678 and D value is 83.0602. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is in overbought territory, but it could be another week before the D value is larger than the K value. In order for this crossover to occur, the stock would begin declining. We are looking to short the stock prior to this decline and more is explained below.
SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
I have created an algorithm (called SAG Gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal will most likely occur within a few trading days after the stock has begun to move downward. Recognizing this movement and pending signal can increase profit by entering early.
Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 111 times dating back to 1973. Seventy percent of the time, the stock drops at least 3% over the following 30 trading days after the indicator date. Sixty percent of the time the stock drops at least 5% and fifty percent of the time loses 6.5%. Even though a drop does not always occur, taking the below information into consideration makes us believe we are in that 60% of the time range.
As mentioned above, the RSI alone is at an extreme level that has only occurred 26 individual trading days since 1973. The stock always drops at least 1.58% from the date it reaches the 80.3974 level (which was just achieved on Sept 22) over the following 30 trading days. The median drop over this time frame is 5.71%, average is 6.81% and the maximum drop is 20.35%.
Since 1973, this stock always drops at least 5% when the RSI is at or above its current level, while the positive VI is at or above its current level and the stochastic is in overbought territory. These conditions have only been met four times and the instances were evaluated. The median decline for the stock has been 15.08% over the following 30 trading days. On three of these four occasions, the stock continued to go up for at least 2 more trading days. This additional climb resulted in a minimum stock decline of 6.75%.
Between all of the mentioned historics, I believe the stock could drop at least 5% over the following 40 trading days if not sooner. The best indicator is the simultaneous extremes that have been achieved by the RSI & positive VI. The RSI extreme alone supports this belief & the SAG helps.
A potential sell on the GBPI believe everyone knows the GBP is over bought and would likely fall especially as it's starting to stagnate.. Hopefully next week would be when we see the value drop as so many people anticipate.and this pattern would indicate potential selling areas.
GBPUSD possible Divergence tradeHey, traders. Here on the GBPUSD, we have a great example of a CTS type of trade. This market is at a previous HTF level of structure. It has also gone overbought on the RSI on higher time frames. Now, that alone is not enough reason for me personally to enter a trade, but taking it down to an hourly chart, here we have a nice double top. This double top looks great but I still needed to see one more thing for entry.. Divergence. This double top is accompanied by RSI divergence. All of this combines to make a good possible trade. It is very important to remember that we have to incorporate many things into a trade, not just one entry reason, or the fact that the market is at resistance/support. In order to have optimal results as a technical trader, we must incorporate conditions along with entry reasons to create a successful strategy. Hope this was helpful. I do private ideas for FREE each week to everyone who is signed up for the email list at The Trading Channel. There is a link below to sign up for FREE.
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Potential Short entry at GBP/USD Daily (Gartley Pattern) (11/9)If the market price goes as the same pattern as before, there is a possible market entry for sell position at GBP/USD Daily.
The price potentially build a gartley pattern in combine with fib retracement + fib extention.
Furthermore, the rsi and stochastic gave you a signals that the price has already in the overbought area, and potentially will go down.
In combining such method,place a sell order and aim the TP1 at the 1.30284, TP2 at 1.27624 and place a SL at 1.32910.
TP1 is the previous nearest support of a structure, and TP2 is the possible of D leg of gartley pattern including the price of where the 0.786 fib retracement is + mayor resistance (black line) + fibo ext of 1,272 which potentially make a D line of Gartley pattern.
Good luck, and Happy trading!! ;)
Gold - The air is getting very thinAfter breaking through the six year downtrend-line in the last week of July the gold price continuously gained momentum and was finally able to break through the strong resistance zone around 1,300 USD in the last week of august. This super bullish breakout fueled the rally in the last 10 trading days and gold has now reached my first target zone around 1,350 USD.
Between 1,345 USD and 1,355 USD gold is meeting a strong cluster of resistance in a very overbought fashion. Although prices are still climbing along the upper Bollinger Band (1,355 USD) on the daily chart they are way above the weekly Bollinger Band (1,330 USD). Yes, you can see up to five sometimes even seven candles above or below these bands in a row but this is very unusual and probability clearly speaks against any immediate more upside.
On the positive the daily stochastic is bullish embedded which has the uptrend locked in as long as both lines of the oscillator remain above 80. But on the 4h chart I have spotted a growing negative divergence meaning the stochastic oscillator is not confirming the recent new highs anymore.
I would be surprised to see gold close the week above 1,350 USD. Instead I think we might witness a first wave of profit taking rather very soon.
If instead gold can continue to climb the next target zone sits between 1,370 USD and 1,380 USD. Yes, even a quick intraday spike towards 1,400 USD is possible but in my humble view very unlikely here.
My advise is to tighten your stops (at least 1,334 USD) and wait for the next larger dip which should bring gold towards or even below 1,300 USD again.
After a pullback we might see gold moving towards 1,380 USD which could be the final 5th wave of this rally followed by a larger and more complex correction/consolidation.
Until spring 2018 I still expect gold to move towards 1,500 USD.
EUR/GBP i have sold this pair twice in the past week , i just sold for the fourth time at 0.92164
TP : 0.88854
SL : 0.92416
my Reasons to sell :
1 / Red daily candlestick ( i think it's a hammer i am not sure ) but it's bearish candelstick .
2/ RSI gives a Overbuy signe
$VNTV Vantiv Over-extended due for correction$VNTV Vantiv Over-extended due for correction below $70.
Note: Idea/opinion, not investment advice
XAUUSD AB=CD Completion Leg C to Leg DXAUUSD AB=CD Channel In Play //
GOLD is under pressure from NFP reports and the US dollar recovery from lows @ 93. Gold has broken out of 1268.00 consolidation and is now targeting our PRZ @ 1200.00.
Support and Resistance levels
Resistance levels 1273.70, 1280.00, 1288.00
Support levels 1256.00, 1250.00, 1242.00
STOCH SIGNAL // Bearish Start H4/H1/M30 // Overbought conditions
GMACD // Trend/Down D1/W1/H1/H4 MACD
GBPJPY 60 Trend Continuation TradeWe have complex pullback into previous outside return.
Fibonacci inversion 1.618, Fibonacci extension 1.27, Fibonacci retracement 0.886, RSI is overbought.
Reason for entry: lower low lower close (LLLC)
SL@143.62
Target1@ 141.38
Target2@ 140.77
Bitcoin - Corrective Wave BElliott Wave 12345 Impulse wave + ABC Corrective Wave
If RSI hits the overbought level around 70 may confirm the wave B.
High volume can get btc to their ATH price.
Game is over | EURUSD should fallPolitically: After a long period of time, politicians battles are almost finished. Expectation is one of the reasons that a market moves. EURUSD strengthened just because people expected a better euro after French election and weak USD because of Trump-Russian, Trump-China and many other Trump issues.
Now it is proved that Trump alone cannot change the world and other countries will respond to Trump plans. The market will be normal!!
Fundamentally: It is it clear that US economy is much better than EUR zone. Most of European countries' unemployment rate is over 10%. There is innovation in EUR zone and more...
Technically: on weekly chart we are in corrective wave and on daily chart we have a big movement upward containing five waves, which means at least a pullback is needed.
Disclaimer: I don't about politics but noticed that politics matters
Trade your own idea
BEARISH SHARK PATTERN EUR/USD 1) Huge upward move generated by ECB's Mario Draghi - the bulls will want to cash out profits now therefore this should push the price back down
2) RSI heavily overbought on multiple time frames
NZD/JPY SHORTthe pair as pinged off daily resistance, false breakout has also occurred with a high RSI. wait for confirmation, strong sell here.
APPLE shortAPPLE might fall: There is a very nice bearish Jeddingen Divergence (Divergence of momentum vs. price) on the 4H chart, while RSI is overbought.
The price could fall to the weekly pivot and maybe even further to the support line.
