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Overbought

Market Tops Tomorrow?The index never dropped today, which points to the second thesis that we were already in the final Minor wave 5 upward. The SP:SPX is not clear on position and waves, however, the futures are much clearer. This 15 minute chart outlines the possible Minor wave 4 path from start to finish along with current position in Minor wave 5. The bottom for the market was the low from July 20th. This means wave 5 is 2 days old and tomorrow is day 3. Typically wave 5 should move beyond prior wave 3 endpoints. In this case, if Minute wave 3 is in the books (green iii on chart), the market should move above that prior high (July 24) and the prior high established from Minor wave 3 (yellow 3) from July 19. Tomorrow could be a big day of moves with a possible top during the day or on Wednesday pre-Federal Reserve. Assuming we have completed at least Minute wave 3 with the high from July 24, Minute wave 4 could do the following based on hourly data. Based on waves ending in C554, the movement retracement quartiles are 29%, 38.94%, and 60.85%. Models agree the most with Minute wave 4 lasting 1 or 2 hours. Second agreement is at 3 or 4 hours, third is 0 hours, fourth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 554, the quartile retracements are 19.68%, 41.47%, and 53.75%. Strongest model agreement has the wave lasting 1 hour (117 models), with second most agreement at 2 hours (91 models), third place is drastically weaker at 0 hours (68 models), and the models are even weaker with 18 of them at 6 hours, 17 at 3 hours, and 16 at 5 hours. Based on waves ending in 54, the quartiles are at 23.17%, 36.355% and 54.07%. Length is 1 hour (581 models), 2 hours (411 models), 0 hours (379), 3 hours (111), 4 hours (95), 6 hours (90). Based on historical data for Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5, Minute wave 4 retracement quartiles are 19.53%, 42.535%, and 43.14%. Duration is strongest at 1 hour, then 2 hours, and then 5 hours. The chart currently has Minute wave 4 at 1 hour long and the retracement is near the third quartile or further end of historical data. This could mean Minute wave 4 has already been completed. Furthermore, Minute wave 5 is already 1 hour old. Another factor to note is the length of Minute wave 1 was 6 hours and Minute wave 3 was only 5 hours. A major rule of this wave theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest in length. This would require Minute wave 5 (already being 1 hour old) should not be longer than 5 hours total. However, during studies of micro waves this rule has been broken multiple times and may not be a limiting factor in the current instance. There is still a chance the market drops in the first hour of trading below the current Minute wave 4 low of 4547.47 in which case the data in the next paragraph is an hour later than it is stated. Regardless, tomorrow is lining up for the market top. What does the historical data indicate could happen assuming Minute wave 4 has completed? Based on waves ending in C555, the quartile movement extensions are 121.06%, 134.44%, and 171.99%. Models agree the most at 2 hours long, secondary is 1 hour long, third is 5 hours long (possible max based on rule wave 3 cannot be shortest), fourth is 4 hours, fifth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 555, the quartile movement extensions are 118.44%, 130.21%, and 159.05%. Model agreements for lengths are 1 hour (114 models), 2 hours (96), 3 hours (60), 5 hours (38), 4 hours (34), 0 hours (28), 7 hours (20). Based on waves ending in 55, the quartile extensions are 113.1%, 126.06%, and 154.92%. The forecasted lengths are 1 hour (626 models), 2 hours (494 models), 3 hours (230), 4 hours (185), 5 hours (174), 0 hours (161), and 6 hours (142). The final dataset is for Minute wave 5s inside of Minor wave 5s, inside of Intermediate wave 5s where the extension quartiles are 106.40%, 121.955%, and 152.06%. Modelled duration is 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, and 6 hours. The levels for Minor wave 5 are the right most items on the chart above. If Historical data holds true, we may barely make it to 4578 (the current high from Minor wave 3), and north of 4585 does not look possible. After the close are big tech earnings which normally have a bullish push into it. We shall see what happens. If tomorrow is not the top and/or Minute wave 4 or Minor wave 4 decide to return to life, I will analyze more tomorrow night.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
A Negative Month at these Levels Could Signal NVDA Down to $196We are at a point where NVDA is trading at a Macro Monthly Bearish ABCD PCZ and all the Oscillators are sitting in overbought zones. If NVDA sees a negative monthly candle at these levels, it is very likely that these Oscillators will begin to come down again and signal Potential Bearish Action ahead; if we get such a signal at these levels, then I would typically aim for it to go back down to the level of C of the ABCD as a Minimum Target; but given how high this is and how profitable even a 61.8% retrace would be, I will opt to target the 61.8% retrace instead down at $196.32 as it nicely fits into my typical 3:1 risk to reward requirement.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by RizeSenpai
8
Bajaj Finance - Short Target 5700Stock is making triangle as part of cycle wave correction. Though will not achieve its desired target down, expected to fall to 5700 in about 47 days (CMP 7027, -18.8% fall). Swing traders will make it find support at 6536, which could be weak as that level was shortlived. Swing traders may also target 50% retracement of the current wave down to 6321 (-10% fall). If this wave becomes wave 2 of primary movement upwards, then it should fall to 6138 (-13% fall) following 61.8% retracement rule of wave 1. This current wave, demostrated all the powerful properties of wave C, and terminated with a perfectly making ending diagonal, making it an aptly fit candidate for the horizontal triangle, being the base theory. Turbulence areas - 5800 levels being a demand zone. I am targeting short to 5700 levels in about 47 days. Disclaimer : The views hereinabove are my personal views, for the sole objective of seeking comments from community on the analysis. Notwithstanding above, it should not be construed as any guidance, advice or offer to enter into any transaction or investment by the reader. The readers must consult their independent financial advisors before initiating or otherwise dealing with the security mentioned herein, without relying on the contents herein. The author shall not be responsible or liable, whether directly or indirectly, for any losses, pecuniary or otherwise, arising from the use of above analysis or information, whether to the reader hereof or any third party.
NSE:BAJFINANCEShort
by Gjain75
5
GBPAUD - Getting Over-Bought ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. GBPAUD has been overall bullish trading inside the rising broadening wedge pattern in red, however it is currently approaching around the upper trendline. Moreover, the zone 1.92 is a resistance zone. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the blue resistance and upper red trendline. As per my trading style: As GBPAUD approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
5
BTC Bitcoin Double Top on Overbought AreaBitcoin Price Target was reached after the Wall Street-backed EDX Exchange Launch: Bitcoin has formed a double top pattern within an overbought area, which suggests a potential bearish reversal in the near term. The double top pattern is characterized by two distinct peaks at approximately the same level, indicating a potential exhaustion of buying pressure and a shift towards selling pressure. Considering this double top formation and applying Elliott Wave theory, there is a projected price target of $28,300. Elliott Wave analysis aims to identify repetitive patterns in market cycles, including impulse waves and corrective waves, to predict future price movements. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short
by TopgOptions
Is TSLA overbought and ready for a retracement?TSLA has run up over 100% this year in two separate waves. Some traders based on the the magnitude of the current wave say it is overbought? But is it or are they just trying to rationalize a short trade at what they think is the top? Are Jim Cramer and Kathie Wood wrong? On the daily chart of TSLA, I have added a long term volume profile, an anchored VWAP with lines for the mean and = /1 two standard deviations. I have drawn two zones of horizontal resistance based on pivots in the past couple of years. Zero-lag MACD and RSI indicators are added as well. I make the following points: (1) Price is above the high volume area of the profile but not significantly so. (2) Price is below the resistance zones and TSLA may have enough momentum to break through them without hesitation. (3) Price has crossed over the mean anchored VWAP but has a long way to go before it ascends to the second standard deviation where institutional traders may be prone to take short positions ( overbought) (4) The MACD indicator shows K/D lines in parallel and ascending above the histogram. With no lag to contend with a cross of the lines would be an early indication of an overbought condition. Bearish divergence would suggest TSLA is overbought but there is none. (5) The better RSI indicator shows the value rising from 40 to 70 in the current uptrend. A rise over 80 and then a drop to show bearish divergence would be an indication of an overbought condition. This has not occurred. Based on all of this, I can easily conclude that TSLA is not overbought. Any traders who say it is overbought may be simply trying to discourage further buying. I suppose that they might do so because they are in a short position that is now essentially self-liquidating. If that is the case, their better approach might be to get rid of their position, buy to cover and help TSLA move higher. I will continue to try to add to my long position in TSLA when I see daily lows on the 15 or less-minute time frame. From the overhead resistance, I can appreciate there is still significant profit potential with TSLA especially since the resistance may evaporate away letting TSLA bull run its way " blue sky".
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AwesomeAvani
5
GBPJPY - OverBought Zone ↘️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. GBPJPY has been overall bullish trading inside the red rising channel, however it is currently approaching the upper red trendline. Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. (acting as non-horizontal resistance) As per my trading style: As GBPJPY approaches the upper purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
7
Does SPY want a correction? Maybe not but it will get one.SPY has had a good run this spring. However, things are changing. Just this week, the debt \ ceiling got raised. The fed will be auctioning large amounts of treasuries to pay bills. This is money that will not go into the equities markets. Buying volume on a dollar basis will likely go down as a consequence. On the daily chart with a double Bollinger Band setup, SPY is more overbought than ever. The part of the body of the last candle of this past week went outside of both the inner and outer bands. Looking back this has not occurred in well over a year. Candle wicks did go outside the bands in late October 22 and mid-December 22. On lower time-frames SPY has already pulled back into the Bollinger Bands and begun a reversal. I believe that many traders will take their profits off the table and take another look at bonds and treasuries. ETFs like TLT and TMF may see significant inflows no matter for stocks in general may not. I see this as a SPY pullback or correction upcoming for which to take a short trade. I will look at SPY and QQQ put options with very short DTEs as well as call options on SQQQ. For stock purchases, I might go with the ETFs SPXS and SPXU. The simple and basic analysis is their chart shows price candles partially below the lower Bollinger Bands, the inverse of the SPY. They are oversold and accordingly available for purchase at a discount.
AMEX:SPYShort
by AwesomeAvani