Bearish Black Swan In EURAUD.The price is overextended in the oscillators. Price is also reaching into the upper Bollinger bands (not shown on this chart). The bearish black swan is icing on the cake. Wait for day pullback and go short if it looks like there is momentum. Follow the 45 degree trend line to profits and adjust stops as necessary just above the 45 degree trend line.
Overextended
$FUSZ possible shortit is clear that 0.43 is the key support here, and i think it will open near it today. The volume is declining and usually, when a key support is broken, a stock loses 2 days of gains so i guess it could drop to $0.315 more or less.
PS: dont look too much at possible support levels from April because all of that action then was on really low volume.
SUSHI ON SALE 100 PIPSYou see here on the 4H the EURJPY is consolidating sideways.
The buyers and sellers are indecisive but I think the sellers will have Sushi Dinner because...
Price is stretched far away from ma's.
MACD is stretched far away from 0 level line.
MACD has crossed below Red signal line indicating possible new direction.
Close trade if MACD crosses above Red signal line.
Let us know what you think in the comments.
P.S. Waiting for our Big Three Indicator to turn Red based on a proven strategy we have been testing may be a good bearish confirmation.
I will keep you posted . Thanks!
Bitcoin ABC correction from 16.000 to "stable" 12.000 We were witnessing overextended BTC flash prices, few all time highs.
Now its time to correct it and "bring back on tracks".
Bitcoin will drop to 14.000$, when it will drop againa and try to maintain 12.000$ stable.
My personal opinion is that Bitcoin will continue to drop further slightly, so it should be around 10.000 with eventual dips to 8.400$.
I think that 10k btc price will be a decent one.
Short EURNZD - Overextended post EUR Bad DataI re-assess the EUR pairs heading into the Spain data release by benchmarking what the Retail Sentiment was relative to what the market was expecting and my conclusion is EURNZD is the one that is most overextended relative to the fundamental of the pair. It has been the best performer during Asia session and ever extend gain after bad data during UK session and I think it should be losing steam now.
Timing wise I intend to hold this until end of today, betting it will reverse course during US session. I do have the Short EURUSD on though so for risk management purpose, I'd only bet 1/2 the usual size here.
The big short? EURUSDHi guys,
a little update to the trade idea I published earlier last week. Today we had a major bearish day for the EUR/USD, does that mean we can short now?
A unexprienced tradre might think so, after all we got strong bearish momentum in the market today. However as a good trader we wan't to establish a portfolio for our trade idea. So lets look at other factors:
The DXY
Looking at the 4h chart, we can see that price has recently found a bottom after a strong sell off. As you guys might know, the DXY is inversely correlated to the EURUSD. If the DXY moves up, the EURUSD goes down, and the other way around aswell. Aswell as finding a bottom, the DXY formed a inverse head & shoulders pattern, a bullish price action formation. Combine this with bullish MACD divergence we got a indicator that price might correct itself in the future. Right at the time as im writing this, price seems to break out of intraday resistance, which would indicate a shift in momentum. But lets look further to widen our picture.
The USDOLLAR Index
Looking at the 4h chart aswell, we can see that price just broke trough resistance, and is now testing the last line of defence, a descending trendline. Though the break out of the range indicates bullish momentum, we need to see how the USDOLLAR index will react to this resistance, to determine wether we have a fake out, or a real momentum shift.
Combining these charts with the information we already have on the EURUSD, the monthly hightest at resistance and the overextended bullish run, we could see the EURUSD head lower. However to really commit to a trade I'd need to see confirmation of a shortterm trendchange.
This would be the break of the neckline on the EURUSD 4h chart, and a retest, aswell as a brekaout on the USDOLLAR and a retest. Nevertheless the confluence on this potential trade is massive, and it is a trade one wouldn't want to miss if it goes. My plan for the future hours/days is to await the break and retest, and then position myself short.
I will keep you updated!
Long GBPAUD - Anticipating Good GBP Data NZD has strengthened across the board following the latest New Zealand election poll which places the ruling National Party in the lead with 46% of the votes and Labour behind on 37%.
This is to me a much more a local issue and yet since AUD follows NZD closely, GBPAUD tanked too.
Fundamentally, I am Bullish GBP and Neutral to Bearish on AUD, I'd like to fade the sentiment. In addition, given the general weak GBP and my expectation that Retail Sales will be a Beat, GBP may have some support going forward.
I have not entered yet and will be in around half an hour leading to the event. In term of lined up events, both GBP and AUD does not have much.
In term of technical level, I don't think it can go back to 1.72 without more significant news but maybe 1.7 is more achievable. My SL will be below round level at 1.675.
GBPCAD - Overextended and Pricing in a weak CADThis is another CAD pair that I look to play. GBP's news this week has not been positive while the coming expected good news such as Manufacturing Production m/m is on Friday and in my opinion the rally yesterday is quite premature especially with CAD rate decision due today.
The analysis is related to my USDCAD pick, looking at price action so far the GBPCAD pair can potentially a better play of CAD strength. IG Sentiment again showing net Long so I'll put on a contrarian hat.
Technical levels to watch are round numbers 1.62, 1.61 and Pivot levels 1.621, 1.611. I will look to go short nearer to the CAD announcement.
$ADSK trend continuationhigher time frame is in defined uptrend with healthy pullback
mid time frame is showing a rising ma after minor accumulation and weakening downtrend breaking out of downtrend line with positive momentum and volume pressure
lower time frame is showing positive strength after price was overextended and pullback to intermediate moving average and working it way back up
looking for price to break through the 106.1x resistance area and first target to 106.7x for a break of that resistance higher
Is the AMD Hype Over? AMD has shown no signs of slowing down, until now. After the mixed reviews of Ryzen, which was initially a reason for all the hype around AMD, investors are selling. With even the largest investor dropping 45 million shares at $13.70. This is all as AMD was hitting a near 10 year high, which also happened to be a major resistance/support level.
On the weekly chart, we can see Bearish Divergence on the RSI, and the MACD Leader.
Also, for the first time since the beginning of 2016, the Accumulation/Distribution line has dropped below the 20MA on the weekly, showing a potential change in trend. (Not Shown)
AAMC over extended, watching for a shortjust like in may when this spiked up it fell right back down to where it came from, it's approaching the $50 level and had a huge run. looking for a pull back to go short on. low volume though so be careful with size because it can get some wild price action being low volume