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Overpriced

Trouble Ahead For DeereTechnicals: This is not at all a perfect short setup solely off of the technicals. With that in mind, some clear signs of weakness can be seen in DE's weekly chart. One such sign was the new lower low formed at around 285 in July, which broke DE from its previous trading range of around 310-400 a share. Deere's recent bull rally since July's new low I find to be relatively weak due to lower volume. MACD (momentum) on the weekly has sustained a bullish cross. Monthly MACD is still positive yet a bearish cross has occurred. While the MACD on the daily timeframe is signaling a relatively strong uptick in momentum on the shorter timeframe. Despite the bullish momentum on the daily, the longer-term momentum indicators are signaling that there will be a sustained period of underperformance ahead for DE. Fundamentals: Earnings for DE are on the 18th. P/B ratio of roughly 6. P/S of around 2.5. Debt to assets of 2.6. These all appear to me a bit weak. That being said, Deere's profit margins have expanded quite nicely over the last couple of years. I am not very excited about their margin growth, as I see global inflationary pressures providing headwinds for Deere's intermediate-term profitability. Overall, DE is an overvalued stock with little potential for further upside gains in my opinion (especially with the global macro picture steadily deteriorating). Prediction: I do believe the short-term momentum will carry DE up to the 378.32 resistance, likely before earnings are announced on the 18th. Earnings will be a major risk event for DE traders. Should earnings come in higher than expected DE could easily rally above 378.32 and into 398.36 territory, possibly even higher (just look at WMT and HD's price action after their beats earlier today). If Deere comes out with disappointing earnings and/or worrisome guidance we should see a sharp sell-off, ultimately causing a move that allows for a retest of support zones in the 316.71 to 277.09. Earnings risk is something I generally avoid when trading, but the risk to reward for adding a DE short position at the moment almost looks too attractive to pass up. With earnings coming in so soon, it is hard to give a decisive prediction. That said, I will fall back on my underlying thesis, that Deere is overvalued and is facing technical and economic headwinds. I expect to see serious volatility in DE trading over the coming weeks, which eventually will lead DE back down to the 285 low, possibly even grinding into new lows testing support of 236.59. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
NYSE:DEShort
by Gooby_Trades
5
HSY Facing Technical HeadwindsNoticing some bearish divergence on the RSI. HSY of late seems to be trading in a shape that resembles both an ascending triangle and/or a rising wedge. Due to my inability to tell which pattern it is trading in, I will remain neutral on Hershey at the moment. However, the stock has seen quite a run-up in price (since Covid), so HSY holders now may be an optimal time to trim some of this position as market fundamentals and macro risks are looking increasingly problematic.
NYSE:HSY
by Gooby_Trades
1
Historical oil movementLet's be practical. 4 times ONLY since 2008 projection of downside was above $50 of movement as a true possibility. 2008 2014 2018 2020 And now. Connecting weekly lows many times is underestimated by traders. Shoring USOIL from the weekly breakout down December 2019 allowed swing traders to enjoy tens of dollars of movement within a week to weeks. During July 2008, close to $100 down was a catch made by traders in just 8 weeks. Oil at current levels is overpriced and stretched. Currently, a weekly close below highlighted square area currently ongoing, would confirm very high probability of similar downside potential as the previous 4 times 2008, 2014, 2018 and 2020. A rising wedge pattern stretched over a year of movement, which is bearish, appears on chart. 2 horizontal levels of 38, 63 are realistic targets within weeks. Fundamental support to the simple technical idea shown is Joe Biden suggesting 1 Million barrels a day in supply. Major oil corporations also hold similar capabilities (Canada, Gulf area). Do your own research and make a calculated decision if you decide to trade the idea. Thank you.
TVC:USOILShort
by Exactus
Insane price - more than 2 of the largest publishers combined45bn makes it more expensive than Electronic Arts and Ubisoft combined. Look at the market cap! Look at revenue! Don't look at share price! Fundamentals matter, the industry matters, the competition matters! In no way does the fundamentals make sense for the market. Roblox 1.5bn revenue, EA 5.5bn/yr, Ubisoft 1.7bn/yr. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc with a market cap of 18.984B, has the highest grossing game of all time , some of the greatest IP, many partnerships with sports . 3bn revenue/yr. I explained, Roblox is now a public company, to my brother, and he could buy it with his allowance, and he could be rich if the company gets more players... He plays roblox all the time. He said people will stop playing it in a couple years probably, and it's too hard to setup where as something like minecraft you can just play. A consistent game where you can code stuff, or you can just play. If you're a gamer and you've seen roblox, it's lesser of a game than Garry's mod. Minecraft sold for 2.5bn to Microsoft. Roblox being 45bn makes no sense. It's a single SKU business. At current prices, Roblox is a meme stock for boomers who know nothing about the industry, they just see their grand kids play the game and blind people who think the share price matters... I've seen a penny stock with a market cap of a bn, the company does literally nothing, people just see "oh it's a penny it will go up eventually]. Not looking at the Market Cap. That company just had a 7m share split, the split was 50x 70x 20000x.
NYSE:RBLXShort
by Chaython
26
Overpriced - insane price - more than 2 of the largest publisher45bn makes it more expensive than Electronic Arts and Ubisoft combined. In no way does the fundamentals make sense for the market. Roblox 1.5bn revenue, EA 5.5bn/yr, Ubisoft 1.7bn/yr. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc with a market cap of 18.984B, has the highest grossing game of all time , some of the greatest IP, many partnerships with sports . 3bn revenue/yr. I explained, Roblox is now a public company, to my brother, and he could buy it with his allowance, and he could be rich if the company gets more players... He plays roblox all the time. He said people will stop playing it in a couple years probably, and it's too hard to setup where as something like minecraft you can just play. A consistent game where you can code stuff, or you can just play. If you're a gamer and you've seen roblox, it's lesser of a game than Garry's mod. Minecraft sold for 2.5bn to Microsoft. Roblox being 45bn makes no sense. It's a single SKU business. At current prices, Roblox is a meme stock for boomers who know nothing about the industry, they just see their grand kids play the game and blind people who think the share price matters... I've seen a penny stock with a market cap of a bn, the company does literally nothing, people just see "oh it's a penny it will go up eventually]. Not looking at the Market Cap. That company just had a 7m share split, the split was 50x 70x 20000x.
NYSE:RBLXShort
by Chaython
1
Drawbacks of hyper bull run. When is it a good time to buy back?We had another record week. Cryptos are in All-Time-High and EHT just broke a new record of $2k! There are so many topics and market data I would love to discuss here. However, this time I took a different approach. It is a very different post and even today's chart looks different. Price is going up, everyone is getting rich, the unicorns and rainbows for everyone and forever, right? 🌈🦄💸 Or is it? What are the drawbacks of this hyper bull run? What can you do about it? Disclaimer: I do TA's because I enjoy analytics. I am not a financial advisor. If you are reading this post, you should know better to always use your better judgement regarding any investments. Drawbacks of the hyper bull run If you take a careful look at my chart, a few things should stand out. It is a 15 min chart. Without candlesticks. No indicators. Max zoomed out. Naturally, anyone would pose a question - why? For me personally, 15 min chart works best for micro trends and 4-24hr charts help me to do macro/general trends. With that in mind, I am trying to demonstrate a contrast between these trends. White lines on the chart form a channel. Usual price action would move between the top and bottom lines. The wider and the more consistent channel - the better. That offers opportunities to enter and exit the trades. Except for a little anomaly since the 3rd of Feb when another bull flag started to form and just forgot to stop. 😅 Inexperienced traders will feel anxious. This market movement force people to sell high and buy back higher. Almost no opportunities to short and that adds to peoples anxiety. Anxiety causes Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO). And fomo cause the price to rise even more. Lose-Lose. Hyper bull run is the ultimate bear trap. What goes up, must go down, right? Except it just keeps going up! Take a look at the red and green arrows at the bottom of the chart. They are indicators of when market is overbought and oversold. In a healthy market, these should come at more or less balanced intervals. At a macro level, in the bull market you will have slightly more red (overbought) indicators and in the bear market slightly more green (oversold). This Feb (last 20 days) there has been a 1:5.5 ratio! And none of the green indicators at the bottom of the channel! Bears are being crushed with Channel Sell to Buy ratio score at 13:0. Hyper bull run is the ultimate bull trap. Unless you are a market-maker whale, trading insider information, a genius or Elon Musk. In this market situation, the most "profitable" tactic is not to trade. That's right. Selling high and buying back higher will make you less money than just holding. So you hold. Life is great. Every day your coins are worth more and more. You don`t even trade any more. A month later market crash and your opportunity to sell high is gone! Is there anything you can do about it? Now I do understand that many people will come to this post with BTC excitement and a "get rich quick" attitude. My apologise if this post is not what you expected . I get about 20-50 messages every day asking about when to sell and when to buy. Most of the time my micro forecasts are accurate, however, it is clear that the pattern is changing. So no one knows what will happen 5 days from now! If you just got very excited about crypto boom and just starting now. You want to invest $5K and that's all of your savings. You are hoping to triple the money by March. Take a deep breath. Invest time to learn a bit about trading and pick the platform that works best for you. Invest $100 to take a trading course. Start small. There is no point to buy at the top. By the time you learn more about trading, market will be 20% down and you can thank me later 😉🍸 If you are a fairly new trader, you were making some profit and loss. You thought that you sold just before the downtrend at ETH $1800 and now you are getting all stressed that ETH went up instead of down. Take some time off cryptos. If you find yourself more and more stressed every day - do not trade. Come back with a fresh head and draft a new winning strategy for yourself. If you accidentally bought some ETH back in the day and now getting all stressed that it will crash. The price will fall, that is normal. Think about what are you comfortable to hold in case it crashes? What profit do you need to lock? I am not a financial advisor. Think of what are your options. Maybe it is wise to take profit of your initial investment amount and 20% for buying the dip when the dip comes. It is never a bad idea to hold some in the bull market. 🤑 Today's technicals: Position is short Forecasted highs at 2030 and 2080 Mid-way point is now at mind-blowing 1860! No forecasted lows for today. It is unlikely it will dip under 1900 and it really should. Maybe it will just keep going up forever 😂 Have fun trading! 🤑 If you would like to have early access invite to my TA's write: "I am buying this weekend" or "I am not buying this weekend" in the comments below 🙈💸
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by DataMoney
12
When will ETH hit 2k? What does that man to you and me?ETH (and most cryptos for that matter) have been making history in the last couple of months. Never before it had 4 months of straight sky-rocketing bull run, almost without a fault. That is very unusual for cryptos market and is causing FOMO and anxiety for many people. I can't even count how many times in the last 2 months I have seen people celebrating that they have sold everything they have at "the top" just to realize two days later that market went 10-15% up! How long will this spectacular bull run last? ETH has been massively overpriced for at least a month now. According to data, it is long overdue a massive correction or at least a few weeks of sharp decline. Markets can stay irrational longer than one can remain solvent. Unless you are a massive whale or someone like Michael Burry - you can`t fight it, the market will always win. Follow my posts, go with the flow and hopefully, everyone will be making some profit 💸 When will ETH hit 2k? It is very likely that BTC will keep going up today. If that's the case, regardless of what's happening in other markets everything will keep going up. The same for ETH, people are buying, volumes are not that bad. ETH is likely to hit 2k today! 🚀 Today's technicals : Position is long Forecasted highs at 1950 and 2k (if ETH quickly breaks the top of the channel and manages to form support above it, just wait and see that rocket taking off!) Mid-way point at ~1815 Forecasted lows unlikely to drop to 1850 and 1800 Have fun trading! 🤑 If you would like to have early access to my TA's write "Markets are irrational, but I want to know" in the comments down below 😁
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by DataMoney
2
ZOOM, $ZM, SHORT? NOT YET!!!After a successful short term short trade, I am eyeing ZM for another potential short, but nowhere close to the current level. Don't get me wrong, I believe that Zoom is highly over-valued. But it would not be smart to try to gauge it's movement, long or short, currently. Prices are shooting up due to expectations on a positive earnings report that is due Tuesday close. You may be tempted to short ahead of earnings, because I am too. But that would be too risky, even if you short today and price immediately slip 20% after earnings. Hindsight doesn't alter the risk you have taken. Risk is not defined something that is defined after the facts, rather, before. So, what if stock sank 10, 20% after earnings? - as a trader, you should not think, 'damn, I should've shorted', because you couldn't have known the outcome. - you only knew the risks. You lacked something to trade off of, and thus if you had traded, you would've been gambling. - If you bet all of your money on a coin flip, and had you won, you got lucky. - You didn't, and weren't capable of, predicting the outcome. And thus regardless of the outcome, I would call anything stupid to bet their life saving on something like a coin flip. Where does ZM go from here? - I don't know - I hope it goes to 246.7 - that's where I would closely watch for a short, because that's where I am most comfortable with the risk/reward. - If it doesn't get there, I am perfectly happy, nothing lost. - But I do not want to get involved in what is currently a bubble that has the potential to suffocate you or blow up in your face. Follow for updates. Careful trading!
NASDAQ:ZM
by yujingr
2
The most important chart in Bitcoin: Metcalfe's lawSorry, I didn't know how to do it here on tradingview. My very smart girlfriend Jixuan Wang used the program R to import and plot the real bitcoin price versus the Metcalfe price: ibb.co Orange is real price from exchanges, green is Metcalfe price, which can be calculated from the number of the daily transactions squared: P = C* T². P=price C= a constant, chosen such that the fit is good T = number of daily transactions If orange above green: BTC IS OVERPRICED If green above orange: BTC IS UNDERPRICED We are currently overpriced, same as in 2014/2015. This is one of the main reasons why I believe that this bearmarket will still go on for 1 more year.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
6