NQ1!: CONFIRMED CHANNELS & OVERSUPPLY MOVE ON 12/13Note: In the chart above I have provided a clear distinction between what I would consider to be CONFIRMED CHANNELS that have been held for a considerable amount of time.
Points:
1. With todays trading day on 12/13 we moved back into oversupply territory where price action failed to hold.
2. Oversupply move confirms a rejection of the 200 EMA Line.
3. Key Level for NQ1! to hold is 11,600 or we can be set to see new lows and lower highs.
4. Current channel we are resting on will collapse if NQ1! decides to break past 10,600 this would be the equivalent of $SPY breaking 350.
Oversupply
Brent crude is due to continue rising during the summerUKOIL Brent crude is due to continue rising during the summer at least up to $55-60. High gasoline/petrol during the warmest season of the year is already taking place. Oversupply is not lasting long for a finite commodity specially in an increasing more volatile and unstable world where plenty of conflicts accross the globe are arising. We shall never unfortunately see again $30 a barrel prices, is more likely to keep going up to a minimum of $80 UKOIL in the next couple of years.
Pivot point at $45 and for WTIOIL the same applies. Bear in mind that is interesting to keep on eye on AUGUSD and XAUUSD prices as well as 2016 is becoming the year for commodities
Long Gold Short OilGold has a historic relevance as being a price appreciator in times of volatility, geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty.
Current day presents a plethora of risks both economic and political; from emerging market credit risk through to south china sea politics.
Oil, like Gold has benefitted from a fall in the USD which has lead to some price recovery, however this does not change the fundamental facts that there is still chronic oversupply.
Long Gold for economic risk hedge, Short Oil for for USD revaluation protection and further oversupply issues.
WTI will reach the 44.00-46.00 area by the end of 2016The fundamentals are still bearish at the moment, thanks to global oversupply. The weakness in WTI is caused by the moderately declining U.S. production, increase in the output of OPEC and the return of Iran to the world stage, as sanctions were lifted. The fears of further oil decline are further overlined by the decision of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to restart global produce up to 300 thousand barrels a day.
On the other hand, the talk of oil freeze increased oil prices by more than 10% in March. Which led big hedge funds to start betting on higher oil prices.
My expectations are that prices will continue falling and that by the end of 2016, prices will reach the 44.00- 46.00 area.
This perspective will change depending on the fundamentals, but with the current data given this is my opinion.
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