MSFT: Possible future trends The falling of share price and slowness to rebound after Microsoft posted stellar earnings last week suggests MSFT is highly overvalued and correction or stagnation is likely for the near future. This model posits some possible future trends that are more optimistic than not, but emphasizes the likelihood of corrective stagnation keeping runaway price tethered to underlying intrinsic value.
Overvalued
VIX BREAK OUT Successfully broke out of this descending wedge and breaking past the 1/1 Gann fan barrier indicating possibly the start of higher moves to come if closes above barrier.
What Biden just announces about raising capital gains tax definitely was a good little match to start a fire in uneasy markets.
What this does is incentivize selling this year but we have to see if this will pass congress.
This is going to be something to watch closely.
That's all folks
Double top in VIACVIAC announced new shares will be issued diluting the current value of their already overvalued shares. A double top has formed on the chart. Correction ahead as there are multiple options for the underwriters to buy more shares after the initial offering, meaning the dilution could continue.
When a company sells its shares, it's essentially recognizing its share price is higher than it should be and they are taking advantage of it. Take profits and buy puts to take advantage on the investor end.
Bearish MACD cross appearing on the daily chart.
"The company is offering $2 billion of Class B common shares and $1 billion of a preferred stock that is convertible into the Class B common, ViacomCBS said Monday. The shares are the company’s nonvoting equity. The newly issued stock will start trading on March 24, Bloomberg News reported."
"Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are managing the offering. ViacomCBS granted them options to purchase up to $450 million in additional shares."
Hedge losses by Shorting NKLAShort-term play.
As we know Nikola Motors is far from a revenue-generating period, so it would be logical to short.
Based on increasing short volume again - Check Fintel.io
And the fact earnings are coming out, we could expect a dip to 13$ or below.
Personally, I think this is a good play and overvalued IMO so correction is inevitable.
Didn't pay much attention to the scandal last year but we seem to be due for a drop.
NASDAQ:NKLA
Besides, the trend is bearish so you may as well take advantage of that.
Entry price @18-19$
TP @13-15$
SL @21
(Disclaimer)
(This is not financial advice, just my opinion)
No snow for SnowflakeNYSE:SNOW is one of the most overpriced companies you can find right now.
After post IPo rally, stock is struggling lately with poor relative strengh to Nasdaq.
Potential breakdown of Head&Shoulders gives potential for new lows at $200 right now.
However, its not low risk entry idea, so prepare for some volatility.
Could we see a drop soon?As we saw $695 on the TSLA chart a few days ago, a S&P 500 inclusion has helped develop a new uptrend channel for TSLA.
While we have seen this channel hold so far, we have a couple catalysts on the horizon specifically Q4 delivery numbers and stimulus boost.
For this channel to hold TSLA must remain above $630. A drop below and we could see as low as $540. Considering the current price action to be weak, TSLA also has a history of consolidation and breakout patterns over the last couple months. That being said TSLA just broke out to new highs last week and could see a drop before more consolidation.
Keep an eye out for the near term support and look out for more news.
TSLA is a stock that has defied technical analysis before and could do it again. But if looked at closely, both sides can be played very well.
Trade responsibly!
Blackrock ShortI have highlighted the XLF representing the broader financial sector in purple and the S&P 500 index in gray. As you can see it has outperformed the financial sector by a longshot and outperformed the S&P 500 index.
Since Blackrock’s bread and butter is asset management with nearly 8 trillion AUM, the overall concern with overvaluations in the markets combined with BLK’s significant outperformance to its peers and to the broader market in which it invests; I’d say it is time for a pullback.
I would expect it to correct to its previous highs as seen with the green line. I do not expect it to head down towards the XLF, but it is possible it could correct all the way to where the S&P is. It is trading at about 21x earnings.
Community Health Systems Overvalued Those who have been following Community Health Systems since the firm's stock tumbled in October 2016 following the $7.6B merger with HMA may be wondering if the hospital giant has found its footing after three consecutive quarters of being EPS positive, rallying stock prices to a 52-week high record of $11.04/share. Today, I am here to tell you that this stock is very much overpriced compared to the firm's current market value.
Highlights (Quarter by Quarter Fundamental Analysis)
Short-term assets such as Cash and Cash equivalence have increased again by 17% to 1.8B, while receivables and inventory have decreased, signaling that Community Health Systems could be improving their asset turnover or we will see a decrease in net income next quarter. Total assets have slightly increased while debts have slightly decreased resulting in a 2% decrease in debt-to-assets, however, the firm has continued the trend of financing assets with more debt with a 5% increase in debt-to-equity from 28.1% to 29.5%. CYH also maintains an enterprise value far greater than their market cap value. CYH has continued the trend of cutting SGA expenses. Although we see a reduction in FCF, it remains positive.
Using the DCF model, we have a fair-market-value of about $6.30/share.
(One-year Chart using Technical Analysis)
Upon reviewing the charts, we will most likely see a decline in the stock's price. The RSI and MACD are bearish while the price is testing the 20 EMA. Analyzing the volume, we are seeing that the bulls are starting to lose momentum.
Short/put - $5.70 (low confidence) to $6.30 (high confidence)
WHAT'S WRONG WITH AMAZON?Please hit like and share your support :-)
One word: price.
That’s because the company falls in the top-10% of most expensive U.S. companies.
To justify its current value, Amazon would have to compound growth at 14% over 10 years. The company would also have to slow working capital growth significantly, netting its capital requirements to zero over the long run.
Amazon is still a great business: investors should expect Amazon to win massively in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital media. A decade from now, Amazon will almost certainly still dominate the global retail industry.
But when it comes to the company’s stock, investors should keep in mind that AMZN is currently overvalued and overbought. By any conventional measure Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is overvalued. With a market cap of $1.66 trillion, AMZN stock is being valued at over four times its potential 2020 revenue of $400 billion. That's based on its second quarter sales of $101 billion.
As with the other Cloud Czars — Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet, and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) — Amazon’s current price is built on the COVID-19 market and the Fed. It’s not based on Amazon’s performance. And that is the biggest concern for price support at these high levels.
Thank you for taking the time to read and please hit like,
Ev
Sources: Investorplace
Amazon - Time to sell back to the imbalanceWe have used the S&P500 for reference as well as Nasdaq100
We have a trendline break on the ray and now an opportunity to sell to 2021 for a nice target of 2400 but with a range from 2280 - 2450.
Enjoy the trade.
To further explain everything; check our links which will provide further details in our setups.
Note: after the stock split which was a great tactical move, the impulse of trading volume has created a great engulfing opportunity for longs.
Now this trade out look will be a few months so if you are here for short day trading, you will have to look else where however if you have the know how - the setup can work on smaller timeframes.
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SHORT Signal: YFI is overvaluedYFI has gained x10 over the past few weeks. it just recently got added on Coinbase which is a home for most retail traders so it pumped EVEN MORE! and that happened after a short break! In my opinion, this market has to CALM DOWN! It's not like this can rise forever and the way it rose is NOT NORMAL. Many investors are eventually going to take their next step which is CASHING OUT!. Think smart before buying. Many retail traders will get trapped by this while all you gotta do is DUMP IT!!!
Stop: 41000
Enter: 34000-36000
TP: 18000-21000
TESLA ready for a correctionBecause my last post has been deleted, one more time here:
Tesla should be ready for a correction,
1. TD Sequential shows signs of a correction.
2. RSI has a divergence.
3. Doji candle and the subsequent candle closed below doji
The overall longterm trend looks quite bullish on other timeframes, therefore it should be a correction in the next days and not a trend reversal.
Happy Trading!
BTCUSD Overvalued Measured In Gold + Retracement To Fill GapBTCUSD looks overvalued when measured against Gold XAUUSD. Divergence can be seen on the weekly chart from two different points in the past. There is also a gap that has formed in the BTC futures market that also needs to be filled. So i'm hoping these two factors combined will offer a pullback in BTC to at least fill the gap somewhere between $9,500 - $10,000.
Note we need the weekly candle to close bearish to confirm this divergence.