Get started

Overvalued

Long over 200 Short under it. Large rev growth, declining RPOOkta announced the pricing of $1.0 bln aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 (180.07) The notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of Okta. The notes will bear interest at a rate of 0.375% per year. Interest will be payable semi-annually in arrears on June 15 and December 15 of each year, beginning on December 15, 2020. The notes will mature on June 15, 2026, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased, or converted. Okta (OKTA) assumed with a Hold at Canaccord Genuity Okta target lowered to $205 at BMO Capital Markets (183.92) BMO Capital Markets lowers their OKTA tgt to $205 from $210 Okta beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY21 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (183.92 +4.50) Reports Q1 (Apr) loss of $0.07 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.17); revenues rose 46.0% year/year to $182.86 mln vs the $171.57 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Co issues guidance for Q2, sees EPS of ($0.02)-($0.01), excluding non-recurring items, vs. ($0.09) S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q2 revs of $185-187 mln vs. $184.74 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Co issues guidance for FY21, sees EPS of ($0.23)-($0.18), excluding non-recurring items, vs. ($0.32) S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees FY21 revs of $770-780 mln vs. $772.26 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. "We are pleased with our continued execution and strong first quarter results," said Bill Losch, Chief Financial Officer of Okta. "Looking ahead, our strong first quarter revenue performance and highly recurring business model give us confidence in reiterating our fiscal year 2021 revenue outlook. In addition, we are improving our operating loss and loss per share outlook for the fiscal year. While we believe it's prudent to continue to expect some near-term business headwinds as the economic impacts from the pandemic further unfold, we remain highly confident in our long-term success as the leader in the massive identity and access management market."
NASDAQ:OKTAShort
by SwingingForward
SE | Short Opportunity | 84 RSI | Overextended from EMA SE is highly oversold and has gained over 200% the three months. Looking at RSI in the weekly chart, we see that the RSI has reached 84. This is the highest level it has achieved since its IPO. Our second confirmation on oversold levels is that it is very far away from our 21 days moving average at $63.44. It has to at least bounce off the 21 EMA to reach new highs. The fib retracement tells us that it a minimum of 38.2% retracement before it could go higher at $74.50. if the bounce occurs during this retracement, it might be combined with the 21 EMA. Looking at the chart there is no healthy support level from $52.70 to $97, this means that the trend could be quickly snapped making bull take profit. A second support level is $46.07, which is a more reliable level than 52.70.
NYSE:SEShort
by Winallday310
Time to offload the techs?Less than two months ago, I suggested it was okay to buy TECH ETF's (they'd reached an earlier target I'd published). One I highlighted, the XIT (Canadian) has climbed dramatically and now that it's largest holding, Shopify has a market cap bigger than the Royal Bank of Canada, I figure enough is enough. After all it would take a very long time indeed to earn 50% in bonds at these interest rates. A bird in the hand. The sector is back to where it was before the meltdown...i.e. overvalued.
TSX:XITShort
by malvinspooner
2
Apple overvalued This stock currently peaking in price after weekly upthrust candle. Earning Yield are the lowest in recent years and Price to Earnings also peaking highs in last5 years. From PE ratios it's massively overvalued stock. Looking at company income statement over last years is the most stagnant when compared to Microsoft, Google and Amazon. It's amazing that Net income and Revenue been pretty even between last five years (even with decline in capital expenditures) whereas other stock keep growing their revenue and net income consistently. In a nutshell this company is producing very week performance as compared with last 5 years it's the one growing the least. Not saying that one should short stock since it's hard to compete with ponzis and the FED printing machine. But at the moment the best approach is seemly to stay out of the stock
NASDAQ:AAPL
by D7R
1
Time to SELL SHORT Apple $AAPL vs $SPY Will $AAPL fall all by itself? Likely. Will $AAPL fall relative to the $SPX500? Much more likely. Why? Apple has reached extended valuation levels at a time when portfolio managers and indexers are not likely to do anything to adjust their positions going into year end. Why sell now and pay capital gains taxes? Exactly, they wont sell now. They will sell next year and defer those capital gains for a whole year. Why is Apple so overvalued? 1. Revenues are declining (year over year 2%) 2. Valuations are a 10-year peak levels with high PSR readings of 4.5x's, falling margins, lowest Free Cash Flow yield of 5%. 3. Debt is rising steadily to finance share buybacks 4. Share buybacks and a rising weighting in the $SPY $SPX500 is forcing any new cash inflows into index funds into a disproportionate amount of $AAPL shares 5. Sellers have been rewarded for "not selling" to rebalance their portfolios that are overweight $AAPL up here. 6. Psychology and price momentum keeps the price elevated, but only for so long. What you can see on this chart is that $AAPL has peaked in the October-November time frame and has traded off by 15%, 12%, 14% and 29% within 60 bars in the last 4 years. I think the way to participate is with options - buying the $SPY calls and buying the $AAPL puts. The downside is 12% to 18% (average of the last 4 years decline in $AAPL vs $SPY) and possibly more. What if it doesn't work? Then don't risk more than 1% of your portfolio on this idea. Risk? 2% tight stop up to 5% loose stop. Half position risk at 2% and the other half at 5%. Stay tuned! Tim Dec 5, 2019 11:09AM EST
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by timwest
18
Has Metcalfe's Law Stopped Working for Bitcoin?Metcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent. Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin , using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have been performed over recent years which validate this and have used various derivations of Metcalfe’s Law. Note: this indicator sticks to the original Metcalf’s Law. Prior to 2018, every time Bitcoin was above the Metcalfe’s Law fair price (calculated using a default “A” of 0.5 here), a bubble had formed, and price quickly reverted back down to the mean. Nonetheless, since February 2018, Metcalfe's Law Fair Price has remained below the actual Bitcoin price, suggesting Bitcoin is currently overvalued. There may be a few reasons for this: 1. Possibility A: Bitcoin may still be extremely overvalued. Since the December 2017 peak, Bitcoin has only reverted to the Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price briefly during the December 2018 bottom. If this case is true, there could be further to fall unless DAA numbers pick up to fill the gap. 2. Possibility B: The introduction of side-chains, private transactions and the Lightning Network may have fundamentally altered the effectiveness of using DAA to value Bitcoin . As more daily transactions are completed off-chain, or on large platforms/exchanges which use fewer addresses, the relative number and growth of DAA may be misrepresented and artificially low. In this case, DAA as it is reported today is no longer useful in assessing the fair value of Bitcoin with Metcalfe’s Law and this Indicator is effectively useless. 3. Possibility C: Neither of the above are true. We are just in an anomalous period in which price and Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price have deviated from the mean for an extended period (and will meet again in the future, potentially at a higher price). 4. Possibility D: Metcalfe’s Law doesn’t really work for Bitcoin . I am inclined to believe Possibilities “C” and “D” are unlikely. Given the way Bitcoin infrastructure is being developed and used in 2019, Possibility “B” seems the most likely, as this case is supported by the fact that a number of other metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently on the lower side of “fair value” (including Dynamic Range NVT Signal). If Possibility “B” is false, or the impact of private network address usage is negligible, the Bitcoin network may not in a healthy state, with DAA values basically flat for the last 3 years. Regardless, Possibility “A” remains a candidate. Only time will tell. It will be interesting to check back on this indicator in 12-24 months time. Hopefully this indicator has been proven redundant by then.
BNC:BLX
by capriole_charles
3
Gap Inc. Appearing to Reject 200 EMA Once AgainOn the 4-hour chart of NYSE:GPS , price action has interfered with the 200 Exponential Moving Average a numerous amount of times. And, almost every time it has, a reversal and price swing has occurred. This latest one happened after a price surge caused by a normal stochastic oscillator divergence, sending price action straight through linear resistance. Old resistance becomes new support; the foundation of the technicals I've used to price target the short exit. Gap Inc. is in a heavy sell off, as it has been for months on end. In some ways, this recent surge may be seen as standard price oscillation or even a short squeeze. The technicals right now are supporting a continuation of this collapsing trend. Entry Price: $19.24. Stop Loss: $20.55 (Resistance formed by movement before a downward gap) Target Profit: $16.00 Methods of Capturing Gains Short stock. Short call credit spread. Naked puts. Put strike biased straddle. Bearish strangle. *Note: There is an infinite number of ways to capture bearishly favored gains. Be careful with the GPS weekly options because they have low volume, open interest, and liquidity, and can result in extremely unfavorable execution and fill pricing.
GShort
by DoozyTrader
When to Buy Stocks - S&P 500 Dividend Yield CurveBefore start reading on; this chart is inverted. More on that later Interpretation According to Mike Maloney, the S&P 500 dividend yield curve is the second best way to measure a stocks value (after the Shiller S&P500 PE Ratio -made a post on this, go check it out). The ratio indicates how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price. In other words, it measures how much "bang for your buck" you are getting from dividends. In the absence of any capital gains, the dividend yield is effectively the return on investment for a stock. The lower the dividend yield, the less you get for your investment and hence the more overvalued a stock. The historic S&P 500 Dividend Yields were deducted by Robert Shiller and published in his book Irrational Exuberance. Why is the chart inverted? Two reasons 1. This allows you to see, bubbles are up instead of down, and undervalued is down instead of up 2. The higher the yield the more undervalued the stock is, the lower the yield the more overvalued the stock is Areas of S&P 500 Dividend Yield Curve Stocks are undervalued: 1% - 4% Stocks are undervalued: 4% - 5% Stocks are fair value: 4% - 6% Stocks are undervalued: 6% + Keeping an eye on... The alarming thing when looking at this chart is it has only once ever been this high and that was at the beginning of the millennia and this chart goes all the way back to 1872. As of the time of this writing it is at 1.94. The highest it’s ever been is 1.11. This goes to show the size of the bubble we are currently is. Note: This "indicator" is used to find the best time to purchase stocks, not to pick or find the market top/bottom How to “rebalance the dividend yield curve” Going back to Mike Maloney and his analysis...to bring down this dividend yield he sees two ways the market can seek equilibrium. 1. The market goes sideways for a decade while we have raging inflation that will balance this out and then bring dividend yields and PE’s ratios back into line 2. It crashes, the markets go down The currency supply collapses, therefore this has to be a deflationary collapse, this cant be an inflation in what they call an invisible crash. Note that the source of the material here is from 2011 Source: www.youtube.com (58:22)
MShort
by Muncher
Shiller S&P500 P/E RatioBrief Description About the P/E Ratio The p/e ratio is the price of a share of a stock divided by the earnings per share, so it’s the earnings that the company makes during a year divided by the number of outstanding shares. Once calculated the answer is a multiple. This is one of the best valuation metrics that investors have been able to use to judge whether they’re buying an overvalued or an undervalued stock. Using the logic of this fundamental indicator for individual stocks, Dr .Robert Shiller applied this to the S&P 500 , using the S&P 500 as a general gauge of the entire stock market. By doing this, it allowed us to see whether the stock market is undervalued, fair valued, overvalued, and in a bubble, etc. About the Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio The Shiller p/e ratio is slightly different from the traditional S&P 500 p/e ratio where; instead of dividing by the earnings of one year, this ratio divides the price of the S&P 500 index by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. The ratio is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), the Shiller PE Ratio, or the P/E10. Areas of the Shiller S&P500 P/E Ratio As you can see on the chart, there are several different ranges with each one describing the "state" of the stock market 0-5 = stocks are extremely undervalued 5-10 = stocks are undervalued 10-15 = stocks are at fair value 15-20 = stocks are overvalued 20-30 = stocks are in a bubble 30-40 = stocks are in an extreme bubble Interpreting the Multiple Think of the multiple this way; you are paying (insert multiple number) times the earnings . Another way to interpret the multiple, it can be counted as the number of years it would take for the individual to get his investment back. Example #1 : Great Depression, one of the worst times in history, the Shiller S&P 500 p/e Ratio was above 32.56, this means you are paying 32.56 times the earnings , and it would take the investor 32.56 years to get his investment back. Example #2 : 1998-2000 the Shiller S&P 500 p/e Ratio was 44.19, this means you are paying 44.19 times the earnings , and it would take you the investor 44.19 years to get your investment back, even if they were to give you all of the earnings as dividends you would still have to wait 44.19 years. That’s insane, that is a lifetime! “Timing beats speed, precision beats power” Analyzing the Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio One thing you will notice when doing some analyses of this multiple is the following: whenever the multiple surpasses the 20-30 area, the multiple always returns back to 0-10 area. Once the trend reverses and the bubble pops, it doesn’t stop until the multiple has reached some somewhere in the range of 0-10 (undervaluation) as I have illustrated above with the blue arrows. It does this without exception. It would need to revisit undervaluation before a new “healthy” real bull market were to start again. Once the trend has reversed it doesn’t go straight down, it mimics the movement of a ball rolling down the stairs. You can think of each step of stairs as one of the areas it has to go through before eventually reaching the bottom, similar to how the Fibonacci retracement tool works. Using this historically repeating pattern, I'd say we are currently on another step down the stairs before we eventually make our way down the bottom of the stairs where we revisit undervaluation areas. Once have reached the undervaluation areas, this will also be a moment of consolidation where investors, traders, pension fund managers, self-directed IRA owners will have most likely given up and have thrown in the towel. You will most likely see news article titles saying something along the lines of: to invest into the stock market is one of the worst things you could do, but it couldn’t be further from the truth. You can apply this reasoning to all the different kinds of markets and remember these... "When the time to buy comes, you won’t want too" "Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own" Why has the the multiple so high over the past 20 years or so, well at least why I think it is high These are some explanations came up with 1 - Interest Rates are Low Specifically the "Interest Rate - Investment" graph For those who have taken macroeconomics in college or university, etc know about this graph. Essentially the idea/theory behind this graph is that investments change according to interest rates. High interest rates = fewer "projects" approved When interest rates are high, and people want a good return on their investment what do they buy? People buy bonds, not cash, because cash doesn't earn interest. By having high interest rates, money is "expensive", it isn't readily available. High interest rates = slower economic growth . Lower interest rates = more "projects" approved When interest rates are low people are going to do the exact opposite of holding bonds, they are going to hold cash, because the rate of return is low enough to not put their money in a locked contract for a specified time frame. When interest rates are low, money is "cheap", it is more readily available. Low interest rates = fast economic growth. alevelecons.weebly.com twitter.com 2 - Bond Yields are Low ---> Stock Market The second reason here ties in with the first one. When interest rates are low, bond yields are low, thus no where else for money to go, except the stock market, the money will flow elsewhere, it will flow to other parts of the economy where investors can get a higher rate of return on their investments compared to the rate of returns of bonds. Buying a bond forces you to be in a locked contract for a specified period of time, with interest rates varying. Whereas, in the stock market there is no locked contract, you have more mobility, very high amounts of liquidity, more mobility and freedom to do as you wish with your money. Example: say you bought some 10 year US bonds in January 2000, you would be getting somewhere around high 5%-mid 6% on your investment, but remember this contract is for 10 years, your locked in for 10 years, can't move out. Instead of buying 10 year US bonds and getting on average 5-6%, you invested in the stock market (ex: SPY ) you would be getting more, about 7-10% on your investment. Which is more logical? Bond yields have been dropping from the beginning of the millennia, you can see that from around 1998-present time (link below). stockcharts.com These are some explanation I was able to come up with and why I think the multiple has been so high ever since the beginning of the millenia or so, I might be wrong, I might be right, don't really know, but thought i'd just put it out there, that others may see this and can get the gears turning. Hope you enjoyed the post!
MShort
by Muncher
5
Tesla-- bullish above the trend lineTesla has formed an upward sloping trend channel and is currently at the bottom of the channel. It's currently at a minor resistance level, so it could break the channel Monday. If it does, look for breach of the 203-205 support zone to confirm an oscillation down to support at 188, forming a triangle chart pattern. Alternatively, we could bounce off the bottom of the channel toward a stronger resistance zone at 220-223. This resistance zone repulsed Tesla's attempted move higher on June 11-12, so I'd expect a channel break here. The highest I think we go before breaking the channel is resistance at 230. Tesla is on track to deliver a record number of vehicles in June, which could work as a catalyst in its favor. On the other hand, it has massively negative earnings and horrible analyst ratings headed into a market downturn. Yesterday the US government denied its application for tariff relief, and this has been a year of bad personal publicity for Elon Musk. Personally I wouldn't buy Tesla; I'd just look for the optimal time to short.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
$SHOP Shopify Topping Out - Correction Upcoming$SHOP Shopify Topping Out - Correction Upcoming - Rising wedge pattern on daily - Bearish - Volume & MFI divergence vs Price entire month of May - Bearish - Price/Sales Ratio now over 25x (all time high for SHOP) vs most other top growth SaaS companies in mid-teens - Bearish See chart for near and medium term targets. For a possible options trade , I'm looking at buying the June 21st $260/$240 vertical put spread. Currently costing about $300 per contract with total possible profit of $1,700 or more than a 5x return. Definitely high risk as this stock has been propped up for several months now with no major draw downs, but I think it might be time. Note: Informational, not investment advice.
NYSE:SHOPShort
by Triple_Barrel_Capital