Overview
EURUSD Pullback into Long Term ShortsEURUSD has officially broken and closed below the Consolidation range (.9960-1.0012) signaling Strong Bearish momentum on the Big Picture. Having made strong push all the way down to 0.9570 (Levels not visited since November 02) I see this as a continuation of the overall move to the downside. A strong bearish candle on the previous Daily close completed a Daily Supply Level at around .9820. This would be a level of interest to re-enter on a SELL Position with a target of at least 0.9600. I would be looking to get into BUYS and ride the Pullback if I get a strong close above 0.9600. Targets to downsize position would be 0.9750 and 0.9850.
General Market commentYesterday I cut half of my open positions.
Namely the digestion I was looking to get, in the obvious line of resistance (200DMA) is not acting as per model.
Historical Precedent
What is different is the way that the market digested the correction. I was expecting much more the a tight sideways digestion on low volume (green) but the action is not tight (purple). Now the low volume is there (red) ! However, this makes me much more cautious about the bullish scenario. The model we wanted was a much tighter action.
Do not let low volume mislead you! Check out the correction in 2007. We started on low volume but then on the bottom the down volume picked up. To be honest we never really got to "panic" mode in this bear market. The PutCall, VIX - never really showed panic markers, on the top of that the meme stocks are breaking out. Point being is that it is not impossible to bottom without these but it is unlikely.
BTC AN OVERVIEW TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION BINANCE:BTCUSDT
well I have seen a lot of analysis. they are not satisfying me at all. it's just creating more and more confusion.
we might have bottomed out already. so this price is actually good for long term holders. it's golden chance for anyone who wants to hold bitcoin for long time. even if we go below 15k it won't last long. because so many whales / big players are really looking for those cheap price to get into the market.
if we get another crash like we did in covid we might see a huge spike to 13-14k. (now probably due to recession and high leverage players)
but if you're accumulating bitcoin for long term like 1.5 years or so you're in good position.
take a look at the following chart we are seeing similarities between 2019 bottom and 2022 bottom. also rsi looking very similar (btw i am using heikin ashi to eliminate the noise to get cleaner chart )
i am mega bullish on bitcoin. but keep in might we won't make new ATH anytime soon at least for 2 years.
BTC - Hold Your Breath; for one last dive! ETH chart insideHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
As per my last picture idea, we know that BTC is still overall bullish from a medium-term perspective trading inside the bullish channel in red.
However, as time passes by, we are approaching the upper rejection zone that I have been mentioning for months now.
The more we approach the 28k, the closer the rejection would get. That's why I thought that it is a good time to share this idea now as a reminder.
This rejection zone is the intersection of the 28k-30k resistance, supply zone, and upper trendline in brown.
Around this rejection zone, we will be expecting the next bearish impulse to start to form a new swing high around the brown trendline before breaking it upward. Then and only then we can say that the bull run is about to start.
I called it a bearish "impulse" because we are overall bearish trading inside the big brown channel. However, this time I am expecting a shorter impulse compared to the previous two.
But of course, for the bearish impulse to start, we need the bears to take over by breaking below the red channel. Meanwhile we are in a bullish correction.
We can see a similar chart on ETH:
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bitcoin Market Overview Bitcoin Market Overview
Bitcoin continues to fall, when does the bleeding stop ?
The Market has formed a Gartley with a target at 10676.0, we anticipate to form a low price in and around that price area before we see any move to the upside or will it go to 0 ?
Based on the market data we could see the reversal happing in and around there exciting times .
US Monthly Retail Sales Overview
When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?
15 June 2022, 14:44
US Monthly Retail Sales Overview
Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly Retail Sales figures for May, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The headline sales are estimated to rise by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% during the reported month as against the 0.9% growth recorded in April. Excluding autos, core retail sales probably climbed by 0.8% in May, up from the 0.6% increase reported in the previous month.
According to Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet: “Over the six months to April Retail Sales have averaged 0.95%. That is a strong record and comparative to the best periods of the last decade. The problem for US economic growth is that sales figures are uncorrected for price increases. In the same half year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.70% each month. While sales and CPI do not track the same items, and are not directly comparable, it is evident that the bulk of the gains in Retails Sales are simply rising prices.”
How Could it Affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the key macro data, retreating US Treasury bond yields triggered a modest US dollar corrective pullback from a two-decade high touched the previous day. A weak sales number would fuel concerns about softening US economic growth and exert additional downward pressure on the buck. Conversely, stronger readings could lend some support to the buck. That said, any immediate market reaction is likely to be limited as traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the FOMC policy decision, due later during the US session.
Meanwhile, Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend forms first resistance at 1.0500. In case the pair rises above that level and starts using it as support, it could target 1.0540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart).”
“On the downside, 1.0460 (20-period SMA) aligns as initial support ahead of 1.0400 (static level, psychological level) and 1.0380 (static level),” Eren added further.
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales May Preview: Consumption is suddenly a trailing indicator
• EUR/USD to enjoy further gains on a break above 1.05
• EUR/USD Price Analysis: A 50-EMA violation to strengthen euro bulls further
About US Retail Sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
9/15 Market Overview and Outlook ++ Swing IdeasIn this video I go over my outlook on the market and what I think the future holds for the SPY, QQQ and a few other stocks. I also give a few swing trade ideas as well as go over a recap on a FB trade I executed. I will be trying to make these videos daily starting next week as I mentioned in the video> I hope you all enjoy the videos and I appreciate any feedback. Thanks for watching!!!
Will BTC breaks the cycles behavior this time?As we move on toward the end of this cycle, historically BTC always reaches the Fib extensions as you can see in the chart. So will this time be any different!!!
I guess we will find out in couple of weeks...
From personal experience in the markets. Manipulations takes a big part of any market that has a volatility for a certain period of the cycle phase. BTC eventually will exceeds the ATH we recently witnessed and the remaining question is always : WHEN, "RIGHT". Be patient and enjoy life while the market plays out.
This is for investors and not necessarily traders.
AUDUSD OVERVIEW for the week commencing on 21st June 2021Very strong bearish weekly closure
Daily Chart - Formation of a head and shoulders pattern, so expecting further bearish momentum, break of support level (neck line)
H4 Chart - initiated downtrend as it made a LH and LL.
30m Chart - Downtrend, waiting for pullback to finish to enter on shorts with the bears
EURGBP - The Bigger PictureEURGBP has been showing us all sorts of triangle patterns! We can see heavy bearish price action at the moment due to a weak EUR and a strong GBP. We are anticipating GBP weakness soon but until then, we expect the price to go down to that strong level indicated.
See links below as to why we're expecting GBP weakness.
EURGBP - The Bigger PictureEURGBP has been showing us all sorts of triangle patterns! We can see heavy bearish price action at the moment due to a weak EUR and a strong GBP. We are anticipating GBP weakness soon but until then, we expect the price to go down to that strong level indicated.
See links below as to why we're expecting GBP weakness.
Overview Q420/Q120 for BitcoinNo meaningful TA here. Just an overview on the angle trends, price growth/loss during the past two quarters. General observation is that volatility grows each wave up, with the last correction volatility was highest, and the correction was significantly shorter than earlier corrections, though well within the range of correction, about halfway between the % correction of the previous two.
Note, I'm still learning TA, welcome any other observations or feedback.
Overview: XRP it's has extremely prepare the next trend bullishIn this overview, I want to show you a lot screenshoot of what we can to see in the XRP for the next weeks to months, and also in short term. For that, this cryptocurrency noboday it's talking about it.
So, I will going to starting with the sequence to short term to long term to have this perspective in both multitimeframes analysis:
Looking in H1 and H4 timeframe, I see that XRP was formed a shoulder head shoulder inverted, that mean that XRP it's into this next bull movement toward my 2 targets at $0.50 cents and $0.60 cents. Also, We see that XRP it's in the accumulation zone to accumulate more XRP.
As I have in my portfolio 4,783 XRP coins. I thinking to bought more XRP to hold, my goal it's to reach 10,000 XRP to be in the par with Cardano that I have 11,237 Cardano coins. Now, XRP it's my most cheap crytpocurrency into my top 5 crytpocurrency. For that, the price it's around of $0.45 cents. For that, I don't missing this crytpocurrency in my radar for the next bull rally in XRP.
The bad news it's that it's the only crytpocurrency that I can't to trade XRP, unfortunately, much exchange it's dislisted XRP included my exchange Prime XBT and little more my new crytpo broker Simple FX, much exchange doesn't offer to negotiatiate or trade XRP, at least, I just use (Crypto.com) to hold XRP, it's the only what I do.
Now, in Daily chart, we see that XRP it's formed a simetric triangle zone, that it's an accumulation zone for the next weeks o months. As XRP it
s in the lower zone what form the support line, it's leading toward the objective of $0.60 cents in short term as the price it's around of $0.45. cents. Also, I see this perspective that XRP it's in the accumulation zone and we see that the next trade, XRP it's going to explode soon in the next weeks. For that, theres a good opportunity to re-accumulate more XRP coins if you don't bought, this it's your good opportunity to buy zone before XRO goes to $1 dollar. Because my XRP forecast it's proyect to $1.45 dollar, and that it's an up of 140%.
The weekly structure it's bullish, There's not much to talk in this timeframe. XRP it's following the trend.
In monthly timeframe, XRP it's leading toward the bull rally, this will be extremely important between medium to long term to reach the price maximum history of $3.50 USD approximately. I suggested to invest in this crytpocurrency in the lower zone before that XRP goes to $1 dollar or above of this price.
And finally, these are my targets profits to reach up in XRP. For that their adoption it's becoming a luxury when your XRP it's hit an extremely value that we can't to imagine it. For that, this it's my top 5 crytpo in my radar, just for below of Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum and Chainlink. For that, guys, XRP has much news in their use of case what XRP it's becoming the bank's money for their uses of cases.
For that, this crytpocurrency it's fascinating to invest!!!
Guys, if you found out that this idea it's extremely interesting what you see. Share this overview with others peoples, traders, friends and you're guress to comment here what do you expect in XRP in the future. And also, I invite you to watch my announce of my topics what I want to talk about in the next weeks in my tops cryptos ad my recent fundamental analysis of Chainlink.
QQQ Very Strong Bull Run ContinuesThe overall market and we know is on a real knife edge. I currently do not hold a weekly position in QQQ which I'm kicking myself for right not but there you go. My general approach to the market right now is taking buy positions on the weekly chart buying after the dips and looking to close at the end of the week to avoid dips that may become crashes.
LOOK BACK &SEE|2020 MOST IMPORTANT POINT|GC1! GOLD FUTURE-DAILYUnder the black horizontal lines, huge volumes.
Above the black horizontal lines, huge volumes.
Between the black horizontal lines , volumes are lower, calm.
The blue uptrend line mark the trend, general trend of the market.
But, on the 17th of September we have seen forces coming into the market to push the market down under a very important point.
Now we are at the red horizontal line which is the most important line of the year for the GC Gold Future.
We can clearly see with this simple analysis that things have changed and that the black lines, center channel is still probably the gravity center for the GC Gold Future prices.
Be careful, in case of a new uptrend the new bleu downtrend line resistance above the market price could possibly see the market pullback down again strongly.
BTC/USD - What's next? MAJOR OVERVIEWAfter BTCs recent downturn which saw the cryptocurrency fall from $12000 USD all the way to $9900 USD in a matter of days, BTC has managed to find some major support at the $10000 USD level.
This support has been tested numerous times since the 4th of September and has traders questioning whether the bears have lost their grip on BTC.
Since the 4th, BTC has been mainly trading sideways, although it did recently break a downwards resistance line, potentially promoting the idea of a bounce-back up to previous levels.
If we look deeper into this resistance line it shows that it is in fact a descending triangle with a descending pre-trend currently seeing a positive breakout. There is the descending resistance line which has many validation points and then the $10000 USD support level which is acting as the base for this triangle.
A triangle like this is typically bullish. Although currently, BTC appears at risk of re-entering the triangle, which would be a major red flag for a move back down, a potential break below the $10000 USD support level.
This potential re-entry into the triangle is being fueled by the MACD and the QQE MT4. The MACD has seen a negative crossover in the positive area (bearish), while the QQE MT4 has seen a negative crossover around the 65/100 level (also bearish).
BTCs performance over the weekend and days to come will depend on how well BTC obeys these bearish signals.
If BTC can use the downwards resistance from the triangle as support, alongside potentially the $10000 USD support level then this would be a big thumbs up towards a move back up and a potential break of the $10500 USD resistance level.
If BTC heavily embraces the MACD and QQE MT4s bearish sentiment, re-entering the triangle then the likelihood of BTC being able to stay above $10000 USD would be decreased significantly.
This then clearly leaves BTC with two potential directions. Either a rejection of the MACD and QQE MT4 where price is not heavily affected or the opposite. If BTC is not heavily affected then the next level which BTC could be looking at is $10500 then $10700 (+4.3%) USD. If BTC rejects the downwards support from the triangle most likely the S1 PP will be seen, with a likely move towards $9375 USD.
With regard to the recent attempt to move up, BTC is not just seeing resistance at $10500 USD but also resistance at $10375 stemming from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. BTC has attempted to break above this level four times since 05/09/2020 although on each occasion has failed to do so.
When looking at the Elliot waves, the recent impulsive move appears potentially over, with wave five coming to an end when BTC hit $12500 USD. This will then see the beginning of a likely corrective wave, with the move from $12500 USD – $9900 USD being the first part (A) of the corrective wave. We can not be sure of this.
If the Elliot waves suggested in the chart above are correct, then a move towards $10500 USD would appear next in line for BTC.
Overall, the market is bearish, so watch out for the market and always leverage risks vs. rewards.
Good luck!
EURAUD : Lucrative Long Position Opportunity may AriseHi.
Terminal status during DXY drop period (61 1D bars):
We observe that the Euro is relatively low compared to the Australian Dollar.
It should be watched carefully.
A mark should be expected on the trend line.
When this sign comes, the long position can be evaluated.
Regards.