Pa1! (Palladium Futures)
Palladium at $4,500? The opportunity you don't want to miss.It is no secret that Palladium is one of the biggest winner of the last 3 years. It's long term chart shows that there is even great upside potential. During 1996 - 2001 Palladium made a +879% rise before it consolidated for more than a decade.
Palladium investors eye a similar pattern. The strongest reason behind this is the Palladium-to-Gold ratio. In 2000/2001 this ratio peaked at 4.2. If it happens again, and there is no reason to believe it won't as the candle sequence that preceded this sharp rise is virtually identical, it will take Palladium's price just above $4,500.
Very good long term opportunity indeed for patient investors.
See our previous 1,367 target on the Palladium/ Gold comparison:
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Palladium: Turning parabolic towards 1,800?It is no secret that Palladium is on a strong long term bullish trend, and we have discussed this subject on this comparison with Gold where we estimated a target of 1,367 (see the chart below).
XPDUSD has even outperformed this target and is currently on a very interesting development where it can turn parabolic towards 1,800. Even if that doesn't materialize, the RSI shows that the target can be fulfilled either on the current 1D Channel Up (RSI = 58.312, MACD = 34.870, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) or the Higher Low support provided by the previous Channel Up.
See our previous 1,367 target on the Palladium/ Gold comparison:
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Palladium Weekly: More valuable than Gold?Trading Indicator: Ichimoku Cloud
Resistance: $1560
Support: $1100 - $979 (618 to 786 Fib retracement). This is also confirmed by the Senkou A & B of cloud.
Momentum: Stochastic and RSI heavily overbought. A steep profit taking pullback would not be surprising.
Trade Setup: Wait for a pullback in Palladium before initiating fresh buys. We are in a sub 4 wave count and larger ABC correction.
Fundamentals: Precious metals are taking a step back and Palladium will not be immune in the short-term as Gold takes a break. US/China trade deal could have an opposite impact on Palladium as such a deal would usher in consumer confidence in the two largest economies. Palladium largest use (60% of value) comes from its use in catalytic converters for vehicles. This rare metal makes the pollutants from vehicles much less harmful. Trade deal could spur automobile purchases in China/India and other parts of the world. Such a deal between the two largest economies could delay recession worries, increase consumer confidence/spending on larger purchases like vehicles, and thus, more demand for Palladium.
Cheers,
Bobby
Platinum / Palladium Price Ratio - Long PlatinumThese charts deserve a closer look. :)
Platinum / Palladium ratio just touched an all time low. You can see the explosive move up, following the last time the price ratio of these two metals touched this level.
Considering the platinum chart on its own... Price recently found support from a ten year old support level... $750. Since then price has mostly consolidated with a couple failed breakouts dropping price back to support. However, although it doesn't look like much on the long term weekly chart, platinum is up $65 from the February low and has broken above $830, previous resistance.
There's a couple interesting things looking at the Palladium chart also. Price is at a measured move above the midpoint from the lows, which also looks to be significant support / resistance. I'm not jumping all in calling a top in Palladium, but $1500 does sort of portray a psychological milestone in and of itself. And although the fundamental argument could be made that price still has a long way to run, I'm sure people were saying the same thing about Platinum in May 2008 before it dropped from $2200 down to $750 in the course of six months.
And often technicals are all that's needed to trigger a sharp reversal in price... Looking at the selloff in crude October 2018....
All things said Platinum looks like a good buy and hold Risk / Reward ratio, supported by the strength across the other precious metals. I'm going to wait and see how Palladium reacts to the $1500 level...
North American Palladium ltd broke outJust after coiling up, very bullish. You can wait for retest, I will indeed, but, hey!.. this thing could never get back down.
Palladium: Bullish continuation on ideal conditions.XPDUSD (Palladium) has made a new Higher Low on its long term 1W Channel Up (MACD = 89.310, Highs/Lows = 86.3564, BBP = 189.9320) and due to the overbought RSI = 77.424, it should slow down its uptrend within the next 20 sessions. This doesn't necessarily mean that it has to consolidate sideways, but as it did on the late Oct - lat Nov period, it may rise slowly on a more standard Channel Up. 1D has created the perfect conditions for this (RSP = 58.571, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). We are going long again on Palladium with TP = 1,455.
See our previous long term bullish report on Palladium (compared to Gold) and its strong long term buy bias.
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Is Palladium the new Gold?On this quick comparison we can see how Palladium has outperformed Gold since their recent lows. Although Gold has only managed to grow +7.16% from its recent August lows (1,160) and is way off its annual High (1,366), Palladium has gained +37.96% breaking at the same time its January annual high (1,139.60).
Taking into account the very long term bullish trend on the monthly chart (RSI = 67.636, MACD = 74.470, Highs/Lows = 62.5922 ) since the 252 low, where Palladium has increased its value by +155.43%, if the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on 1D (991.600) holds, then we can expect another +20% gains in the following months (target 1367). This is a good buy opportunity for long term investors.
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Platinum about to lift off? These two markets look interesting together because of the similar price action. Notice how rice was in a descending triangle followed by a breakout. These are typically bearish patterns, but not always, clearly. I believe platinum is in the same consolidation phase before it breaks out. Notice it took rice approximately two years to break out from its established support. Platinum seems like it's on the verge of doing the same. I've seen some traders present shorting opportunities in platinum. I think that's a big mistake.
Other than that, what does platinum have to do with rice? I'd say nothing. There is no inverse or positive correlation whatsoever. Perhaps there is something more between the two, but that is not the point of the analysis.
Palladium Vs. Gold I do not have much doubt that palladium topped against gold in the short term. Though, longer term, things look interesting for palladium against gold and silver - possibly a stronger run higher (or smaller run lower) than both metals.. I am currently short palladium with no position in gold or silver.