Elliott Wave View: Palladium 7 swing Correction In ProgressShort term view suggests the rally in Palladium to 2814.25 ended wave (3). The wave (4) decline in Palladium is currently in progress to correct cycle from May 13, 2019 low before the rally resumes. Internal of wave (4) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from Feb 28, 2020 high (2814.25) , wave ((a)) ended at 2610.1 and bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 2740. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 2387.30 which completed wave W of the double three.
Afterwards, the metal ended the rally in wave X at 2576.9. It has resumed lower and broken below wave W at 2387.3 suggesting the next leg lower has started. Down from wave X high at 2576.9, wave (a) ended at 2391 and wave (b) bounce ended at 2465.10. Expect Palladium to extend lower towards 2248 – 2311 area to end wave ((w)), then it should bounce in wave ((x)) to correct cycle from March 2 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.
The potential target for wave Y of (4) can be measured as 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of W-X which comes at 2045 – 2146. This area, if reached, can see buyers for further upside or 3 waves bounce at least. We don’t like selling the proposed decline due to the bullish trend in the higher degree.
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Palladium Ideal Entry (November)Entry plan is based on the palladium head and shoulder pattern .
I'm waiting and watching for price action to signal a top near the dashed line (drawn from left shoulder's high). Ideally we get some deceleration with a doji candle followed by a high test candle to form the right shoulder and signal a reversal to the downside.
The bull cycle counts are pointing towards Q4 as a ideal time for a high and the monthly counts confirm that with their November target.
Ideally I'd be able to hop in around $800-$850 if/when that confirmation comes with my stop above the high we form. The market still has quite a bit of chart to fill over the next 5~ months so things wont become clear until we get closer to that November target. Reward:risk ratio target would be around 10-12:1 for the first entry.
I'll publish a more detailed plan as well as my entry if/when that time comes.
For more in depth analysis on this trade and others checkout my site, PatsTrades. Link is in my profile status box.
Thanks!