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SPX: 75% chance Multi-Timeframe Reversal to 5,775-6,103 Zone **SPX MULTI-TIMEFRAME CYCLE CONFLUENCE ANALYSIS - SUPER VERSION** **CURRENT SITUATION: July 7, 2025 - Price: 6,238** Based on our quantitative cycle analysis across 4 timeframes, applying **ACTRAGEA hierarchical dominance principles** where ITM >> MTY >> TCY >> TYL. --- ## **CYCLE HIERARCHY STATUS** | **Timeframe** | **Cycle Phase** | **Status** | **Hierarchy** | **Key Level** | |---------------|-----------------|------------|---------------|---------------| | **ITM (1D)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | **DOMINANT** | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** | | **TCY (1H)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | Secondary | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** | | **MTY (270m)** | Phase 1 | LONG (+1.64%) | Subordinate | Seeking max: 6,359 | | **TYL (15m)** | Phase 2 | LONG (+0.11%) | Subordinate | Max: 6,242.7 **awaiting confirmation** | --- ## **PRIMARY SCENARIO (Probability: 75%)** **DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** **Multi-timeframe reversal upon ITM maximum confirmation** **RATIONALE:** - **ITM timing**: 0 bars remaining from 50° percentile window → Maximum at 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** → Statistical pressure for confirmation increases daily - **Hierarchical cascade**: **When ITM confirms maximum** → all subordinate cycles transition into Phase 3 (minimum search) - **Current LONG positions** (MTY +1.64%, TYL +0.11%) face hierarchical override risk upon ITM maximum confirmation. Subordinate cycles will align regardless of current profitability. **STATISTICAL PRICE LEVELS (50° Percentile):** - **ITM**: 5,775.84 - **TCY**: 6,103.58 - **MTY**: 5,996.35 - **TYL**: 6,170.98 **STATISTICAL TIME WINDOWS (50° Percentile):** - **ITM**: 65 bars | **TCY**: 58 bars | **MTY**: 62 bars | **TYL**: 81 bars **EXTREME SCENARIOS (20° Percentile):** - **ITM**: 5,420.71 | **TCY**: 5,934.73 | **MTY**: 5,728.16 | **TYL**: 6,084.71 --- ## **⚠️ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (Probability: 25%)** **DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** ITM extension toward 80° percentile before maximum confirmation **CONDITION:** ITM exceeds statistical time boundaries, allowing subordinate cycles temporary independence --- ## **CRITICAL DECISION POINT** **Confirmation Trigger:** ITM maximum validation at 6,284.65 → Phase 2→3 transition → Activation timeframe: Within 1-3 trading sessions (statistical pressure) **Hierarchy Activation:** Immediate subordinate cycle alignment into Phase 3 upon ITM confirmation **Invalidation:** Sustained break above 6,285 (negates ITM maximum thesis) --- ## ** PROBABILITY FOUNDATION** **75% probability derived from:** - ITM expired timing creating high statistical pressure for confirmation - Historical dominance patterns (85%+ subordination rate upon ITM phase changes) - Dual Phase 2 alignment (ITM + TCY at identical maximum level awaiting confirmation) --- ## **ACTRAGEA METHODOLOGY FOUNDATION** Our **quantitative cycle framework** operates on **hierarchical dominance principles** where longer timeframes command shorter ones. Statistical levels represent **50° percentile probabilities**, not certainties. The **ITM critical juncture** at 6,284.65 creates high-probability setup for **coordinated multi-timeframe reversal initiation**. **Performance Context:** Systems demonstrating 65.71% to 82.86% statistical reliability across timeframes. --- *Analysis based on ACTRAGEA hierarchical cycle principles and statistical percentile distributions. All levels represent probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes.*
SP:SPX
by Actragea
ETH/USDT 1W Chart📊 Trend structure (Price Action) Downtrend (historical): A series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) — a classic downtrend. Confirmed by the orange downtrend line. A change in structure — a possible beginning of an uptrend: A Higher Low (HL) has recently been formed after a Lower Low (LL). Suggests a possible end to the downtrend and an attempt to break out upwards. Currently: The price is testing the upper downtrend line. A breakout above the orange line may confirm a trend change. 🟢 Key Resistance Levels (Green Lines): Level Meaning 3.058 USDT Potential target after a breakout from consolidation 2.767 USDT Nearest strong resistance - currently being tested 3.427 USDT Deep resistance level from the previous high (HH) 🔴 Key Support Levels (Red Lines): Level Meaning 2.234 USDT Nearest support - previous breakout 1.883 USDT Early 2023 support 1.507 USDT Local bottom 1.204 USDT Historical support - LL extreme 📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator): Currently in the overbought zone. This may suggest a short-term correction before an actual breakout. However, in a strong uptrend, the indicator may "hang out" in the overbought zone for a long time. 📈 Potential scenario: If the breakout above 2.767 and the orange trendline holds: A possible move to 3.058 USDT as the first target. Extended target: 3.427 USDT (HH). If the breakout fails: Correction to 2.234 USDT or lower. There is a risk of returning to a downtrend. ✅ Bullish signals: Higher Low (HL) formation after Lower Low (LL). Testing the upper downtrend line with an attempt to breakout. Volume is increasing (based on candles). ⚠️ Bearish threats: Stochastic RSI in the overbought zone. Breakout not confirmed by 100% (needs a weekly closing candle above 2.767). Resistance at 3,058 could halt the move. 📌 Conclusion: Ethereum (ETH) could be on the cusp of a new uptrend, but a breakout above 2,767 USDT is needed for confirmation. If it does, a move to 3,058 and then 3,427 is possible. However, the current overbought level on the Stochastic RSI could signal a short-term correction before the trend gains strength.
by cryptodailyuk
XAUUSD BUY OPPORTUNITY!🟢 Current Trade Setup (Buy Position) Entry: Around 3,299.46 Take Profit (TP): 3,338.87 Stop Loss (SL): 3,285.64 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 ➜ This is a favorable R:R setup. Key Zone - Supply Area Marked as SUPPLY H4 (Higher Time Frame 4H supply zone). Price Range: ~3,350 to 3,368+ This is where sellers may aggressively enter the market. A potential reversal zone—watch price action closely when it reaches there. 🔸 Recent Price Action A strong sell-off occurred before this setup. Price then formed a sharp wick and a potential demand reaction around 3,285–3,290. Price is now attempting a bullish recovery (possibly a liquidity grab followed by accumulation). 🔸 Bullish Signal The recent structure shows a double bottom / demand reaction. Entry aligns with the bottom of the move, offering good positioning. 📌 What to Watch Intraday Buyers’ Momentum: If volume supports upward momentum, it could push price toward TP. Reaction at 3,320–3,340: Minor intraday resistance zones before the TP. If price hesitates, consider partial profit-taking. Rejection from Supply H4: TP is placed just below the H4 supply zone — smart take. Avoid extending TP unless there's a strong breakout candle. 🧠 Summary ✅ Strong R:R setup. ✅ Clean reaction from demand. 🚨 Supply H4 zone ahead — expect resistance near 3,350–3,360. 📈 As long as price holds above ~3,290, the setup is valid.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ashif030
BTCUSD Bullish resistance breakoutThe BTCUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a resistance breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 104,890 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 104,890 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 110.780 – initial resistance 113.140 – psychological and structural level 115,760 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 104,890 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 103,500 – minor support 102,290 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the BTCUSD holds above 104,890. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by TradeNation
2
TELE LONG TRADE 08-07-2025TELE – LONG TRADE | 08 JULY 2025 Buy 1: Rs. 8.53 (Current Price) Buy 2: Rs. 8.10 Target Prices: TP1: Rs. 9.30 TP2: Rs. 10.00 SL (day closing): Below Rs. 7.70 | R:R: 1:5 TELE has been trading in a range since June 2023. It recently completed a spring pattern by briefly breaking below the range and marking a low of Rs. 5.40. The current reversal from this zone indicates a strong potential for an upward move, making this a high-probability Second Strike opportunity. 📌 Execution Strategy: Please buy in 3 parts within the buying range. Close at least 50% of your position at TP1 and trail the stop loss to protect profits in case of unforeseen market conditions. 📢 Disclaimer: Do not copy or redistribute signals without prior consent or proper credit to The Chart Alchemist (TCA). ✨ Kindly support our efforts by boosting and sharing this idea!
PSX:TELELong
by THE-CHART-ALCHEMIST
Excellent yesterday's sessionAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: In my opinion I need to stay on Hourly 4 time-frame for us and the potential break-out to the downside since Hourly 4 chart remains Bearish (never Swing Buy while #H4 is Bearish) on logarithmic scale, hence on limited upside. My expectation is that we still have one (minor) rebound left which will be the final Selling attempt / entry towards #3,300.80 benchmark, if Buyers manage to reverse this, #3,352.80 and #3,400.80 marks are Targets to monitor / which I will pursue with set of Scalp and Swing orders. Trade accordingly as I Bought #3,302.80 with set of aggressive Scalp orders." I have Bought Gold with aggressive Scalps from #3,297.80 - #3,302.80 zone, firstly closing my orders as near as #3,310.80. Later on, did #4 more Scalps from #3,308.80 - #3,313.80 / closing all as near as #3,322.80 as I announced that Gold will certainly recover as per above (cca #171.000 EUR Profit using #100 Lots). Technical analysis: Ranged Price-action came as no Technical surprise as Price-action remains in Rectangle on a combination of Fundamental pressure and Technical necessity for a Lower Low’s extension. It is closely related to currency Volatility on DX (and the economy related Fed’s talks and Tariffs agreements of utmost importance) as the Price-action in near equilibrium with DX (# -0.27%) also on Weekly scale and even if the pair completes full scale reversal, Gold should stay under Selling pressure. On the Short-term side, there is an clear Resistance and Support zone, limiting Sellers advances to it’s maximum thru Fundamental side (every early to late U.S. session revives Buyers on the aftermath). Gold should already Trade widely below #3,300.80 psychological barrier, but now Resistance tests seems more likely to develop and showcase Short-term Buyers presence. Hourly 4 chart points that Lower High’s Lower zone is near and Resisting the Price-action at #3,334.80 - #3,342.80 which makes it an possible Hourly 1 chart’s Ascending Channel variance - typical Target of similar sequence if break-out is delivered includes #3,348.80 - #3,352.80 on Short-term. In extension - I will advance with extreme care ahead of the most significant macroeconomic events of the week and since my model leans more to the Bullish side and Fundamentally Gold may soar, I will remain Scalping Gold as using Swing orders practically is worthless on such market. My position: I will keep Buying and Selling Gold only with my aggressive Scalp orders from my key entry and reversal points.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
DRBHCOM - The LOW is getting HIGHER !DRBHCOM - CURRENT PRICE : RM0.815 The stock made a HIGHER LOW recently - this may consider as a half portion of new uptrend is completed. A breakout above RM0.930 will form the higher high structure - which confirm the new uptrend phase. For short term trading purposes, short term traders may anticipate to buy if the stock breakout nearest resistance of RM0.830 - which will give an entry point at RM0.835. So this is a pending breakout stock. Nearest target will be RM0.870 and RM0.910. While support will be RM0.795. Take note also that MACD give a bullish hint. ENTRY PRICE : RM0.835 TARGET : RM0.870 and RM0.910 SUPPORT : RM0.795 Notes : If the stock breakout RM0.930 in the future, it is a sign of strong bullish momentum (strong uptrend). So at that particular time, trend follower traders may anticipate to buy at RM0.935 - RM0.940.
MYX:DRBHCOMLong
by IMRAN_96
AUDUSDTHE month July 8, 2025, the key Australian economic events 2:30 AM WAT – NAB Business Confidence Actual: 5 Forecast: 2 The NAB Business Confidence Index rose sharply to 5 in June 2025 from 2 in May, marking its highest level since January and indicating improving business sentiment. This improvement was driven by gains in sales, profitability, and employment, signaling optimism about the economic outlook despite some lingering cost pressures. 5:30 AM WAT – RBA Cash Rate and Related Announcements Cash Rate Actual: 3.85% (no cut at this meeting) Forecast: 3.60% (markets had expected a 25 bps cut) Previous: 3.85% The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate steady at 3.85%, surprising markets that had expected a cut to 3.60%. The RBA Rate Statement accompanied the decision, providing insights into the bank’s view on inflation, growth, and monetary policy. The decision reflects the RBA’s cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns. The stronger business confidence contrasted with the RBA’s decision to pause rate cuts, highlighting uncertainty about the economic outlook and inflation trajectory in Australia. AU10Y=ROSE TO 4.3% FROM DAILY OPEN OF 4.206% AUD OCR=3.85% THE SAME US10Y=4.391% US IRT=4.25-4.5% This shift in AU1OY and RATE hold of 3.85% will give AUD a buy opportunity going forward. while we are seeing tariff related shocks evident ,AUSTRALIA a commodities dependent economy will take a offensive . The announcement and implementation of tariffs have created uncertainty, causing the AUD to decline from recent highs. The AUD/USD pair dropped in anticipation of tariff changes and broader risk aversion in global markets. Market Sentiment: The threat of higher tariffs and trade tensions typically weighs on the AUD, as Australia’s economy is highly exposed to global trade flows. Increased tariffs can reduce export competitiveness and hurt terms of trade, especially if global growth slows as a result. Limited Direct Impact: since the US is not Australia’s largest export market. However, indirect effects—such as slower global growth or disruptions in China (Australia’s biggest trading partner)—could further pressure the AUD. Broader Economic and Policy Context RBA Response: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cited tariff uncertainty as a reason for holding interest rates steady, adopting a “wait-and-see” approach until the full effects of global trade tensions are clearer. Exchange Rate as Shock Absorber: The AUD often acts as a buffer during global shocks. If tariffs or trade tensions worsen, a weaker AUD can help offset some of the negative effects by making Australian exports more competitive, but it also increases the cost of imports. Key Takeaways Tariff uncertainty has already contributed to recent AUD weakness. If trade tensions escalate or global growth slows, the AUD could face further downside. The RBA is likely to remain cautious, and the AUD will remain sensitive to both tariff developments and broader economic data. #AUDUSD
Long
by Shavyfxhub
7.9 Gold long and short switches frequently!From the daily chart, the overall gold price is still in a weak position, the moving average is hooked, and the upper pressure is near the moving average 3319. Only if it breaks through and stands firm at this position during the day, can the bulls start to exert their strength. It happens that the MA10 position of H4 is also near 3319. At present, H4 is in a bearish trend, so the bullish pressure is still very large, but it rose in the early morning, and it bottomed out and rebounded. Combined with the recent non-continuation of the long and short trends, there is a high probability of rebounding during the day, so we can go long in the Asian session first, and go long directly at the current price of 3300, add positions to 3295, defend 3286, and look at 3312-19. The focus is still on the strength of the European session. If the European session is strong, continue to go long before the US session retreats; if the European session is weak, the US session will bottom out and rebound!
TVC:GOLDLong
by AIan_Gold
1
XAUUSD 4H – Smart Money Concept (SMC) SetupPrice action on the 4H chart shows a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) at the 3,320 level, marking a shift from a bearish trend into potential bullish order flow. This CHoCH is supported by a strong break of internal structure followed by a pullback. 🧠 Smart Money Insight: CHoCH Zone (Break of Structure): Price broke the previous lower high, confirming possible bullish intent. POI (Point of Interest): A refined 4H demand zone sits between 3,280–3,310, aligning with a previous accumulation area. Price is currently approaching this zone with decreasing momentum (potential liquidity sweep below minor lows). Liquidity Grab: Several equal lows were formed before the POI — prime setup for a liquidity sweep before a bullish push. Refined Entry Zone: Based on candle wicks and order block imbalance. 🎯 Trade Idea: 🟢 Entry: Wait for bullish reaction or confirmation inside the POI zone (3,295–3,305) 🎯 Target Zones: TP1: 3,380 (reaction level) TP2: 3,420–3,440 (major supply zone + inefficiency) 🛡️ Stop Loss: Below 3,270 (invalidates demand zone and structure) 📈 Bias: Bullish unless POI fails 🔍 Confluences: ✅ 4H CHoCH Confirmed ✅ Price approaching refined demand zone ✅ Liquidity resting below recent lows ✅ Previous imbalance not yet filled ✅ Clean supply zone overhead (TP target) 💬 Conclusion: This is a clean SMC-based long setup. We are waiting for price to tap into demand and show bullish intent before entry. Strong probability of reversal into premium pricing zone if structure holds. 📍Drop a like if you caught this setup or save it to monitor the reaction!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FrankFx14