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Bitcoin - Will the liquidity at $122K be the next target?Bitcoin is currently trading within a defined corrective channel, which has been developing over the past few weeks. Price action within this structure has been characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a mild downtrend. However, these movements lack strong momentum, indicating that the market is consolidating rather than entering a deeper correction. This kind of structure often precedes a significant breakout, and given the nature of the current price action, a retest of previous highs remains a realistic possibility. Bullish Scenario Looking at the overall structure of the channel, a bullish breakout seems increasingly likely. For this scenario to unfold, BTC needs to hold the midline of the channel as support. If this level is respected, it could pave the way for a push towards the upper boundary of the channel and a potential break above the lower high structure near $120,000. A successful breach of that level could trigger a move toward the $122,000 liquidity zone, with the potential to challenge the all-time high (ATH) in the near future. Holding the midline and breaking above key resistance would provide confirmation of strength and continuation to the upside. Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold the midline as support and starts closing below it on the 4H timeframe, we could see a renewed move toward the lower boundary of the corrective channel. This could lead to a test of the unfilled 4H fair value gap (FVG) highlighted in the chart, located around the $112,000 – $113,000 area. This zone also coincides with a strong historical support level, making it a logical area where buyers might step in and provide the momentum needed for a more sustainable bullish reversal. Final Thoughts While both scenarios remain valid, the price structure within the corrective channel currently leans slightly more toward a bullish outcome. The lack of aggressive selling and the potential for liquidity above the previous highs support this view. However, trading is never about certainty but about preparing for various possibilities. Being aware of both bullish and bearish setups allows traders to react with flexibility and discipline depending on how the market unfolds in the coming sessions. ------------------------- Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Long
by Youriverse
54
VIX: From “Calm Tension” to a ReboundWhy does a small uptick matter today… if we’ve already seen 60+ readings four times in the past 17 years? The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility. The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1. At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again. 🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked 📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline. 1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025 Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%). Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45). MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023. Key drivers: 🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut. 👷‍♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected). 🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns. 2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1) 🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9 🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division 👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down 📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway 💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal Conclusion: 2024 was a systemic shock. 2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management. 3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes. Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks. Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows. 4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next? 📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation 📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay. 📌 Final thoughts The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message. The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending. History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced. If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
TVC:VIX
by SHGTrading
NZD/USD Holds Above May LowNZD/USD halts the decline from earlier this week to hold above the May low (0.5847), with a move/close above the 0.5920 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.5930 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the 0.6040 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6070 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar. Next area of interest comes in around the July high (0.6120), but the rebound in NZD/USD may turn out to be temporary if it struggles to trade back above the 0.5920 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.5930 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region. A breach of the May low (0.5847) opens up 0.5830 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.5740 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.5760 (100% Fibonacci extension). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
SUI/USDT: Prime Long Setup from LSOB Demand & Daily OversoldHello traders, This analysis highlights a high-probability long setup on SUI/USDT (2H Chart). The current price action presents a classic institutional-style reversal pattern, strongly confirmed by momentum indicators signaling a bottom may be in. 1. Trend & Context (The "Why") While the short-term trend has been corrective after a "Bearish ChoCh," price has now entered a major area of interest where a powerful bullish move could originate. Here is the confluence checklist: Primary Signal (LSOB Zone): Price has tapped into a key Bullish LSOB (Liquidity Sweep Order Block). This is a critical demand zone where smart money is likely to absorb selling pressure and initiate long positions. Liquidity Sweep Confirmation: The price action confirms this with a clear Liquidity Sweep (LQDT), where the price wicked down to take out stops below the previous lows before reversing. This is a very strong bullish signal. Momentum Exhaustion (MC Orderflow): This is where the setup gains its highest conviction: The MC Orderflow oscillator is in the EXTREME OVERSOLD territory, indicating that sellers are exhausted. CRITICAL MTF CONFLUENCE: The Multi-Timeframe Cycle Table is showing that both the 4H and Daily timeframes are "Oversold." This alignment of higher timeframe momentum with our 2H demand zone is the most powerful confirmation for this trade. 2. Entry, Stop Loss, and Targets (The "How") This confluence provides a clear and structured trade plan with excellent risk-to-reward potential. Entry: An entry around the current price ($3.50 - $3.58) is ideal, as we are in the LSOB demand zone. For a more conservative entry, one could wait for the 2H candle to close bullishly. Stop Loss (SL): $3.38. This places the stop loss just below the low of the liquidity sweep wick. If this level is broken, the bullish setup is invalidated. Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1: $3.90 (Targeting the cluster of short-term EMAs and the recent swing high). TP2: $4.28 (The next major structural resistance). TP3: $4.45 (The major swing high, which is also a Bearish LSOB supply zone). Conclusion This trade presents a superb opportunity due to the powerful combination of a price-action sweep into a key demand zone (LSOB), confirmed by severe multi-timeframe momentum exhaustion. This alignment across indicators points towards a high-probability bullish reversal. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
Long
by Innotrade_AJ
Correction will be to 6050-6190, probably the upper limit Now I notice something very important and things and the analyses of many actually coincide. Monthly support from the accumulated volume lies between 6050 and 6170. 4h indicators show a clear reversal. Separately, at these levels are the previous ATH. In my opinion, it is possible to stop even at 6180-6190. We will probably start with a gap on Monday. Now here comes the moment and over the weekend what will take place as conversations and statements in the media, but it is very likely that the minimum could happen as early as Monday night (USA time) or by Tuesday. I agree that this correction was necessary and should have happened as soon as possible because things became difficult even for bulls like me.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by kometata
1
LINK/USDT: A+ Long Setup at Key Support with Daily OversoldHello traders, I am monitoring a high-probability long setup on LINK/USDT on the 4H timeframe. The chart is presenting a classic reversal scenario where multiple technical factors are aligning perfectly, suggesting the recent corrective move may be over. 1. Trend & Context (The "Why") After a strong uptrend, LINK experienced a necessary pullback, confirmed by a Bearish Change of Character (ChoCh). The price has now reached a critical zone where we can anticipate a bullish resumption. Here are the key confluences for this setup: Major Dynamic Support: The price is finding strong support directly on the EMA 200, a significant long-term moving average that often marks the end of a correction in a larger uptrend. Price Action Signal (Liquidity Sweep): The most recent candle performed a perfect Liquidity Sweep (LQDT), wicking below the prior low to take out stop losses before quickly reclaiming the level. This is a classic institutional pattern that often precedes a strong move up. Momentum Confirmation (MC Orderflow): The momentum oscillator provides the final, high-conviction confirmation: The MC Orderflow is deep in the OVERSOLD territory, indicating that selling pressure is completely exhausted. CRITICAL MTF CONFLUENCE : The Multi-Timeframe Cycle Table is showing that both the 4H and Daily timeframes are "Oversold". This HTF alignment is extremely powerful and significantly validates the strength of the reversal signal from this support level. 2. Entry, Stop Loss, and Targets (The "How") The confluence of these signals provides a clear trade plan with an excellent risk-to-reward profile. Entry: An entry around the current price ($16.70 - $16.90) is optimal, directly at the EMA 200 support. Stop Loss (SL): $16.25. This places the stop loss safely below the low of the liquidity sweep wick, providing a clear invalidation point for the trade. Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1: $18.20 (Targeting the cluster of short-term EMAs and the recent consolidation zone). TP2: $19.50 (The next major swing high resistance). TP3: $20.28 (The major high of the range, a full trend-reversal target). Conclusion This trade presents a textbook "A+" setup. The synergy between a key price action pattern (liquidity sweep) at a major technical level (EMA 200), combined with validated momentum exhaustion on both the 4H and Daily timeframes, creates a very high-probability environment for a significant bullish move. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
Long
by Innotrade_AJ
Silver Remains a Buy on DipsIt seems the precious metals market didn’t mourn the Fed’s decision and subsequent press release for long. The uptrend remains intact, and the previously supportive factors are still in play. Even amid the negative news, there was no sharp sell-off — everything stayed within the trend. This clearly signals that rate cuts are on the horizon, and metals are likely to continue their upward move. We only trade from the long side — nothing has changed. At the moment, we've seen a pullback, and it feels strange not to take advantage of it and add more silver to the portfolio. Stop-loss is set below yesterday’s candle low at 36.15. We’ll see how the position develops. For now, the idea is to hold as long as the stop-loss holds. The long-term target is 48. Obviously, we won't reach it quickly, so I’ll trail the stop as the trade progresses — first to breakeven, and eventually into profit.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by kventinka
DAILY SCALPING PLAN | CLINTON SMC STYLE✅ XAU/USD - DAILY SCALPING PLAN | CLINTON SMC STYLE 📆 Date: August 1st, 2025 📍 Strategy: Smart Money Concepts (SMC) 🔑 Focus: Liquidity Sweep | Order Block | BOS | Premium/Discount Model 🔍 Market Overview Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a manipulation phase after a strong move down from a premium supply zone. The market has swept key liquidity and is preparing for a high-probability move in both directions based on Smart Money footprints. Current structure suggests: Bullish intent forming from a discount demand zone. Liquidity resting above recent highs – perfect for short-term scalps and intraday swings. 🟢 BUY SETUP – DISCOUNT DEMAND REACTION 🎯 Entry: 3275 🛡️ Stop Loss: 3268 🎯 Take Profits: TP1: 3285 TP2: 3295 TP3: 3305 TP4: 3315 TP5: 3325 TP6: 3335 Reasoning: This is a clean bullish OB resting beneath a CHoCH and BOS zone. Price may wick into this area as Smart Money reloads after sweeping early long positions. If held, expect sharp upside expansion toward previous liquidity highs. 🔴 SELL SETUP – PREMIUM SUPPLY REJECTION 🎯 Entry: 3356 🛡️ Stop Loss: 3362 🎯 Take Profits: TP1: 3350 TP2: 3345 TP3: 3340 TP4: 3330 TP5: 3320 Reasoning: This level is a key supply block where price previously distributed. If price expands into this zone, it’s likely to act as a liquidity magnet for Smart Money to offload longs and enter short-term shorts. Expect reaction. 🧠 SMC Insights Internal BOS & CHoCH signal early signs of accumulation. Price respects the premium vs. discount framework with clear liquidity targets. SMC traders understand that price doesn’t move randomly – it targets liquidity, mitigates OBs, and respects structure. 🔔 Note: Always wait for clear confirmation (rejection wick, engulfing pattern, or M15 structure shift) before execution. Entries without confirmation are riskier in current volatility. 📌 Follow @ClintonScalper for daily SMC scalping plans & deep institutional insight. 🔁 Like, comment & share if you find this helpful!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SCALPER-Clinton
2
GOLD Bullish Today , Long Scalping Entry Valid To Get 150 Pips !Here is My 15 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we finally above 3296.00 and we have a 30 Mins Candle closure above it , so i`m waiting the price to go back and retest this res and new support and give me a good bullish price action to can enter a buy trade and we can targeting 100 to 150 pips . Reasons To Enter : 1- New Support Created 2- Bullish Price Action 3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A .
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Elite_Club
Lingrid | ETHUSDT Short-Term Move: Buying Opportunity at SupportThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea . BINANCE:ETHUSDT is attempting a bounce after dipping into the lower boundary of its channel near the $3,400 support level. Price action has followed a descending structure with lower highs inside a broad downward channel. As long as the $3,400 zone holds, a rebound toward the mid-range resistance at $3,630 remains viable. Current positioning inside the "BUYING area" suggests momentum may flip bullish if a reversal structure forms. 📉 Key Levels Buy trigger: Break above $3,630 Buy zone: $3,250 – $3,400 Target: $3,630 – $3,720 Invalidation: Break below $3,250 💡 Risks Momentum still favors sellers from the recent sell-off Failure to reclaim mid-range resistance could cap upside Broader trend remains within a bearish channel structure If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
1
ADA | Full AnalysisHere is the top-down analysis for CRYPTOCAP:ADA as requested 🫡 Weekly Timeframe: We have one large potential sequence on the weekly chart that will be activated once we break the ATH at $3.1, with a target zone around $5.2. This is also my conservative target for this bull run, assuming we get the “altseason” everyone is hoping for. We’ve also already completed a smaller sequence on the weekly chart and then corrected into the overall correction level. If we break the November high at $1.3, we will also activate a new structure that could take us close to the ATH. Daily Chart: On the daily chart, we were rejected at the bearish reversal area (green) and corrected down into the B–C correction level, followed by a continuation into the target zone. According to the rulebook, I expect a bounce from these regions and have positioned myself accordingly with 4 long orders — one at each level. Local price action: On the 4H chart, we have a bearish sequence that is counter to the primary scenario. Statistically, it’s less likely to play out, but it’s still worth noting. The bearish reversal area (blue) is the next key level to watch if we get a bounce here. If this area is broken, the follow-up move becomes very likely. ----- Thats the my full Analysis for CRYPTOCAP:ADA , hope it was helpful if you want me to do another analysis for any other pair just comment down below. Also, if anyone is interested in how my trading system works, let me know and I’ll post some educational content about it. Thanks for reading❤️
Long
by The-white-goat
6