Stick to shorting gold and aim for the target area.Gold has not broken through 3400 after accelerating its rise, and the upper suppression effect still exists; currently gold is fluctuating in a narrow range below 3390, showing signs of stagflation to a certain extent. Therefore, the accelerated rise of gold is not for the short-term impact of 3400, but for a deep retracement, eliminating more scattered funds in the market by sweeping up and down.
So in the short term, I think it is difficult for gold to continue to break upward under the suppression of the resistance area near the short-term high of 3402, but to test the lower support area of 3375-3365 before breaking upward. So I have shorted gold as scheduled according to the short trading plan mentioned above, and aimed at the lower target area of 3375-3365.
At present, our short position has made a certain profit, but I still look forward to profiting from gold hitting TP! Let us look forward to gold falling back to the target area as expected!
Community ideas
Bitcoin Technical Analysis📊 Bitcoin Technical Analysis | BTCUSDT – 1H Timeframe
Key support and resistance zones have been carefully mapped out in this chart — use them as a guide for smart entries and profit targets in your trades.
🔼 If BTC breaks above the key resistance at 107,902, the next targets will be 108,507, 108,842, and potentially 109,377.
🔽 However, if price gets rejected from the 107,902–108,000 zone, watch for support around 107,058, followed by 106,808 and 105,945.
📌 These levels have shown strong reactions in the past and continue to act as key zones for Bitcoin’s movement.
👉 Save this chart and follow for more high-probability setups and live updates!
GOLD
GOLD complete sell on lock zone
check previous post
Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data
Key CPI Figures (May 2025)
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
Cooling Inflation Momentum:
The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed.
Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks.
Tariff Impact Delayed:
The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory.
Labor Market Resilience:
Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing.
Policy Implications:
Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance.
Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts.
Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks.
Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears.
What’s Next?
June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening.
Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data
Key Data Points
PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%).
Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%).
Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Subdued Producer Inflation
Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains.
Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025.
2. Labor Market Softening
Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023.
Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP).
3. Policy Outlook
September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens.
Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given:
Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May.
Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets.
DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations.
Conclusion
The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation.
July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts.
Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent.
Summary
The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing.
#gold
Bitcoin (BTC): Sellers Taking Over | Re-Test of Important ZoneWe are dropping hard, where after a clean breakout price is heading now back to the retest area, which will determine the next major movement from here on.
What we are seeking is a successful re-test (which then would trigger our buyside scenario), but if we see that sellers will keep the pressure and take over the control near current region, then we might be looking for slight dip towards the 200EMA line ($104,500)
Swallow Academy
Gold 100% Trading SignalsAfter the changes in the first four trading days of this week, everyone is convinced that gold will rise after adjustment. Now that the trend has been strengthened, today we will discuss where the strength of this bullish trend can reach this week. This week, it has been emphasized that the expected rising space within the week will be 3370-3400. It has almost reached 3375. The target of the next wave of gold rise is 3400.
From a technical point of view, the daily line appeared on Wednesday, standing firmly above the middle track of Bollinger, and the moving average system diverged upward. In the 4-hour chart, the golden cross of the random indicator MA5-MA10 continued, which was good for intraday fluctuations and rises; MACD continued to hit the red kinetic energy column. In terms of form, it continued to rise slowly, which was a bullish signal; then it is expected to rise to the upper track high of Bollinger near 3400 under strong pressure. After this round of rising and pulling up, Bollinger opened in the 4-hour chart. Today may be a one-sided trend, and the intraday support is near 3342. After adjusting to 3342 during the day, you can go long and see today's rising space.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to go long at 3345-3350, stop loss at 3340, target at 3360-3370; it is recommended to go short at 3400, stop loss at 3410, target at 3380-3370.
GBPJPY follow the ascending channel selling from supply zoneGBPJPY Update – 1H Timeframe
Price is respecting the ascending channel and currently reacting from a key supply zone at 166.100. Sellers are stepping in!
🎯 Technical Targets: 🔻 1st Target: 195.000 – Major Demand Zone
🔻 2nd Target: 193.300 – Bullish Order Block / Demand Zone
Structure still bullish overall, but short-term correction in play.
💡 Smart money eyes the zones — are you ready?
👇 Don’t forget to:
💬 Comment your thoughts
❤️ Like if you caught the move
🔔 Follow for more real-time trade setups & market insights
Trade smart. Stay ahead.
— Livia 💋
BABA (Alibaba Group Holdings) | 1D Chart OutlookPublished by WaverVanir International LLC | 06/11/2025
BABA has broken out of its multi-year base and is now in a potential macro reversal structure. The current retracement near $120 could act as a higher low before a continuation toward the unfilled liquidity zone around $183.13, a major inefficiency level from late 2021.
🔍 Key Technicals:
✅ Long accumulation between 2022–2024
🚀 Breakout above $100 confirmed by strong volume
🔁 Pullback into prior breakout zone (~$115–$120) could offer optimal re-entry
📈 Target: $183.13 (Gap-fill + structural resistance)
📉 Risk Management:
🛑 Invalid below $105 (structure break)
🎯 Risk/Reward favorable if entries are scaled in sub-$125
📊 Probability Weighted Bias:
Bullish Continuation: 65%
Consolidation: 25%
Breakdown/Invalidation: 10%
🧠 Macro Catalyst Watch:
China stimulus or regulatory easing 📉🪙
Fed rate pivot & USD weakness 💵🕊️
Earnings growth rebound in Alibaba’s cloud segment 🌐📊
This setup reflects asymmetric potential as tech re-rates globally. Risk-defined, sentiment-watching, and catalyst-aware traders may consider positioning for a medium-term swing.
#Alibaba NYSE:BABA #SMC #GapFill #TradingStrategy #WaverVanir #TechStocks #ChinaEquities #SwingTrading
ORCL Earnings Play – Riding AI Momentum (2025-06-11)📈 ORCL Earnings Play – Riding AI Momentum (2025-06-11)
Ticker: NYSE:ORCL (Oracle Corp)
Event: Earnings Report — 📆 June 11, After Market Close (AMC)
Bias: ✅ Moderately Bullish | Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Call Option | Expiry: June 13, 2025
🔍 Market Snapshot
📍 Price: Trading near recent highs
📈 RSI (Daily): 87.66 — Extremely overbought
📊 IV Rank: 0.75 → Implied volatility is high
📦 Options Market: Bullish skew; max pain at $170 suggests risk, but not dominant
🧠 Narrative Drivers: AI/cloud strength, institutional accumulation, strong uptrend
🧠 AI Model Consensus Summary
✅ Bullish (3/4 Models):
• Grok/xAI, Llama/Meta, Gemini/Google → all recommend a long call
• Favor upside potential due to strong trend + favorable sentiment
• Strike debate: $195 vs. $200 → $200 favored for cost/leverage
⚠️ Bearish (1/4 Models – DeepSeek):
• Flags overbought RSI + $170 max pain
• Recommends buying puts (contrarian sell-the-news play)
✅ Recommended Trade Setup
🎯 Direction: CALL
📍 Strike: $200
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13
💵 Entry Price: $0.86
🎯 Profit Target: $1.00 (+16%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.25 (–71%)
📈 Confidence: 70%
⏰ Entry Timing: Before earnings close
📏 Size: 1 contract (limit to ~1% of capital)
⚠️ Risk Factors
• ❗ Binary Event: IV crush or weak results can kill premium
• 🧊 RSI > 87 → potential for short-term correction
• 🔁 If no move materializes, you may lose full premium
📣 Will NYSE:ORCL deliver an AI-fueled beat or flop on IV crush?
💬 Share your take ⬇ | Follow for daily earnings plays and AI-backed trade alerts.
BTCUSD SELL TRADE ALERT Entry Point: 107,500BTCUSD SELL TRADE ALERT
Entry Point: 107,500
🔹 Direction: SELL
🔹 Bearish momentum detected on higher timeframes
🎯 Target 1: 106,000
🎯 Target 2: 104,000
🎯 Final Target: 102,000
🛑 Risk Management Is Crucial
📉 Place stop-loss according to your risk tolerance
📊 Adjust position size based on your capital
💼 Capital protection > high risk profits
🧠 No emotions — trade the plan
⏱ Short to mid-term outlook on this move
🔍 Monitor price action and volume at key levels
🚫 Avoid over-trading
⚠️ Volatility can be high — use caution
🔒 Lock profits at each target if needed
📈 Trailing SL recommended after TP1 hit
📌 Setup based on technical analysis
💬 Stay disciplined. Stick to the levels.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #SellSetup #CryptoTrading #RiskManagement
Will CAD bulls eventually fade away?During the North American session, the USD/CAD exchange rate continued its downward trend and is currently trading above 1.3600, approaching the support zone at 1.3600. If the exchange rate effectively holds the 1.3600 support zone, accompanied by RSI bottom divergence and MACD death cross repair signals, there may be a short-term technical rebound. The initial resistance above is still at 1.3700. If it can break through, it may open up space to 1.3800.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
GOLD - Price can correct to support level and then bounce upHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Gold entered a Rising Channel structure, demonstrating stable growth with higher highs and higher lows.
After testing and breaking through the $3265 support level, the price pulled back slightly and then resumed its upward momentum.
This move confirmed buyer strength and renewed interest in the mid-channel zone.
Recently, Gold successfully retested the $3365–$3375 support area, turning it into a local springboard.
Now price is gaining traction above this zone and appears to be preparing for a continuation of the current trend.
I expect it to rise toward the $3450 target — the upper resistance of the channel.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
GBPNZD What Next? BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the GBPNZD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2.2338
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 2.2269
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 2.2459
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GOLD Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data
Key CPI Figures (May 2025)
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
Cooling Inflation Momentum:
The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed.
Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks.
Tariff Impact Delayed:
The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory.
Labor Market Resilience:
Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing.
Policy Implications:
Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance.
Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts.
Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks.
Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears.
What’s Next?
June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening.
Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data
Key Data Points
PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%).
Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%).
Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Subdued Producer Inflation
Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains.
Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025.
2. Labor Market Softening
Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023.
Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP).
3. Policy Outlook
September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens.
Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given:
Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May.
Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets.
DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations.
Conclusion
The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation.
July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts.
Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent.
Summary
The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing.
#gold
doge buy long term "🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
GOLD Impact of May CPI Data on Bond Prices/Yields and Fed Rate Decisions
Key CPI Figures
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Bond Market Reaction
Bond Prices surged, and Yields Fell as lower inflation reduced expectations of prolonged high rates:
10-Year Treasury Yield: Dropped 6 basis points (bps) to 4.12% (lowest since March 2025) .
2-Year Treasury Yield: Fell 5 bps to 3.947% .
30-Year Yield: Declined to 4.95% .
Drivers: Softer inflation eased fears of Fed tightening, prompting a bond rally. Traders priced in Fed rate cuts by year-end.
Fed Rate Cut Implications
September Cut Odds Rise: Markets now assign a greater chance of a September rate cut by more than 25bps
July Meeting Likely Unchanged: The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25–4.50% on June 18 but may signal dovish intent in its updated dot plot.
Policy Dilemma:
Cooling Inflation: Supports cuts to avoid over-tightening.
Resilient Labor Market: May 2025 jobs growth (139K) and steady unemployment (4.2%) suggest the economy can handle delayed easing.
Tariff Risks: Fed remains cautious about potential inflation spikes from Trump’s tariffs, which could materialize in late 2025 .
Market Reactions
Equities: Nasdaq surged past 22,000, and S&P 500 hit a June high as stagflation fears eased .
Dollar Index (DXY): Initially dipped but later stabilized near 98.50 as traders weighed Fed caution against global risk sentiment .
Commodities: Gold rallied to $3,376/oz, while oil rose 2% on demand optimism .
Conclusion
The softer CPI data strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts in 2025, triggering a bond rally and equity gains. While a July cut remains unlikely, the Fed may use its June meeting to prepare markets for a September easing, contingent on inflation staying subdued and tariff impacts materializing as expected ,the CPI (July ) and Q2 GDP will be watched for confirmation.
#GOLD #DOLLAR
Bitcoin H1 | Falling toward an overlap supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 106,873.50 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 105,200.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 109,219.00 which is an overlap resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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Be careful with ADA !!!Finally, the price broke the wedge, and the price experienced a significant drop. I think is the time for btc to rise again to 0.73 after more correction . STRONG SUPPORT 0.67
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
GBPJPY WONDERMAP GBPJPY WONDERMAP
Bias: BUY
Daily candle closed bullish
H4 breakout zone retest in play
H1 support being respected
M30 breakout trendline intact
Lower timeframe momentum confirmation on standby
We're looking at a swing wave formation.
Expect price to tap into support, confirm structure, then blast toward 197.088 and 197.550.
25