Sentiment Cycle Indicator PerformanceTake a look at the performance of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator (PAID) on the Bank Nifty 15-minute chart—it beautifully captures the sideways movement. In sideways areas, where there’s no red or green background, the indicator identifies “no sentiment.” As per the indicator, this means there’s neither bearish sentiment (red background) nor bullish sentiment (green background). Instead, the chart simply displays its default background color, which in my case is white.
This unique feature of the indicator, which I’ve emphasized from the beginning, is its ability to not only provide buy/sell signals but also highlight no sentiment zones, which can be treated as no-trading zones. This helps traders avoid overtrading, a common pitfall in sideways markets.
Recently, the market has moved out of the sentiment zone, and the indicator accurately captured the transition. Booking profits is entirely up to the trader’s discretion. Additionally, on shorter timeframes like 5 minutes, the indicator can capture more points with multiple entry opportunities. This is especially useful for Bank Nifty, where premium decay (theta decay) can make holding trades over a long period risky. Therefore, timeframes like 1 minute, 3 minutes, 5 minutes, or even 15 minutes work well.
Take a look at the highlighted area within the black line box. In this zone, Bank Nifty was gradually moving down, but the volume was decreasing, and other elements failed to detect any sentiment. This is where the Sentiment Cycle Indicator proves its value. It identifies the lack of clear sentiment, helping you avoid false signals. When the sentiment is eventually detected, it provides a sure-shot signal, offering clarity and precision in your trading decisions.
Currently, the market appears largely sideways, and wherever the indicator generates a buy or sell signal, it effectively identifies trapping zones. This highlights the true power of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator in helping traders navigate various market conditions with precision.
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DOW JONES close to a rejection. See where to buy & target 47000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the most optimal buy entry on our previous call (January 09 2025, see chart below), as we bought right below the 4H MA200, which was the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up, and on minimum risk it hit our 45000 Target:
The price is currently about to break above Resistance 1. As this chart shows, every time a sub-1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound broke above a Resistance 1 level, it was only on a marginal note and then corrected back to the 1D MA50.
The two notable examples where August 30 2024 and May 20 2024. After the correction bottomed and the bullish trend was resumed, the rebound that followed reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, making a roughly +8.50% rise from the Low.
This indicates that the next Higher High of the Channel Up should be a little over 47000 and that will be our Target after we catch that 1D MA50 pull-back entry.
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ECB Delivers Another 25 bp CutThe ECB (European Central Bank) continued policy normalisation today, with another 25 basis points (bps) worth of cuts across all three benchmark rates. This marks the fourth consecutive rate reduction, bringing the Deposit Facility Rate, the Refinancing Rate, and the Marginal Lending Facility Rate to 2.75%, 2.90%, and 3.15%, respectively.
Frankly, I was not expecting fireworks from this week’s policy meeting. Unless I missed something, aside from Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann talking up a possible pause, most Members favoured further easing.
However, one strikingly apparent fact we can garner from today’s meeting is that the ECB intends to continue lowering rates – quite a divergence from the wait-and-see approach the US Federal Reserve has adopted, and one that could weigh on the EUR/USD currency pair (euro versus the US dollar).
The accompanying rate statement reiterated the central bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach and acknowledged that monetary policy remains in restrictive territory. This emphasises the possibility of further easing this year and aligns with market forecasts. As of writing, investors are pricing in another three 25 bp rate cuts, with a reduction on the table for the next meeting in March.
Disinflation Process Well on Track
The ECB appears content with the current progress on inflation, underscoring that the ‘disinflation process is well on track’ and that price pressures are ‘set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year’.
The CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report for December 2024 revealed an ‘expected’ uptick in the headline year-on-year (Y/Y) measure to 2.4% from 2.2% in November amid base effects; core Y/Y inflation held steady at 2.7%, and services inflation nudged higher to 4.0% from 3.9%.
Economy Still Faces Headwinds
Regarding GDP growth data (Gross Domestic Product), the ECB underscored that the ‘economy is still facing headwinds’ but believes a recovery will be seen over time, reinforced by ‘rising real incomes and the gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy’. During her press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised that risks are ‘tilted to the downside’ for the eurozone economy and ‘is set to remain weak in the near term’. This follows GDP data showing the eurozone stagnated in Q4 24, recording 0.0% growth versus the market’s consensus of 0.1% expansion. We also saw contractions in GDP numbers from France and Germany.
Consumer confidence is weighing on sentiment here, influenced by the possibility of a trade war escalation between Europe and the US. Lagarde noted: ‘Greater friction in global trade could weigh on euro area growth by dampening exports and weakening the global economy’.
Downside Risks for EUR/USD; Parity Eyed
I have highlighted in several posts the importance of where the EUR/USD is trading on the bigger picture. As evident from the monthly chart below, the currency pair is trending southbound and found resistance from the underside of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0992 in Q4 24. Subsequently, further underperformance led price action south of support from US$1.0516, currently serving as possible resistance. If this level holds ground, parity calls for attention, closely shadowed by another layer of support at US$0.9873.
Meanwhile, buyers and sellers have been squaring off around the 50-day SMA at US$1.0422 on the daily chart. This is a particularly interesting timeframe, as resistance around US$1.0536-US$1.0514 also recently entered the fight. As for current movement, trading appears difficult unless you are a fan of playing ranges (potentially between the 50-day SMA and the noted resistance area). Nevertheless, a breakout beyond current resistance could be a move larger traders fade from resistance at around the US$1.06 level for three primary reasons: the liquidity (buy stops tripped) above resistance at US$1.0536-US$1.0514, and, of course, the downtrend and monthly resistance in play at US$1.0516.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
#DOGE MEME CYCLEDOGE might be preparing for another massive run, still a continuation of the previous breakout until a new ATH and beyond, consolidating mid way in another bullish pattern on daily.
DOGE is not a leader in ALT cycle (ETH is) but is always runs massively and it hints very well where is the bottom and top on that cycle.
Even in the mid cycle DOGE can be a life changing opportunity. Don't be greedy, pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered.
- No financial advise.
Gold's Bearish Sentiment Rises with Upcoming Central Bank DecisiGold's Bearish Sentiment Rises with Upcoming Central Bank Decisions
Gold is currently experiencing a period of volatility, with market indicators suggesting a potential bearish wave. Several factors are contributing to this outlook:
Recent technical analysis shows that gold is forming a descending triangle pattern, which is often a bearish signal.
The upcoming decisions by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are causing uncertainty in the market
If gold breaks below the critical support level of 2,730-2735, it could initiate a bearish wave, with further declines towards 2720 ; 2690 and 2665
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you:)
Bitcoin Returns to All-Time HighsThe cryptocurrency has managed to sustain a gain of over 4% in the last two trading sessions, as the market remains confident that Trump’s new administration will play a key role in the future of U.S. regulation. For now, the price is slowly approaching the all-time high resistance zone at 106K.
Neutral Bias
Bitcoin continues to trade within a strong lateral range, with resistance at 106K and support at 91K. The recent bullish momentum has once again brought the price to the resistance zone of the channel. If buying pressure remains steady, the current neutral formation could be challenged, potentially leading to a more significant upward move.
ADX Indicator
One factor that may not fully align with the recent buying spike is the ADX line’s movement. Currently, the ADX line is oscillating below the neutral 20 level, suggesting that recent upward movements lack a clear trend direction. This could lead to short-term bearish corrections, creating resistance at the current price level.
Key Levels
106K: The closest resistance level, positioned at the all-time high zone recorded by Bitcoin in recent weeks. If the price successfully breaks above this level, it would end the current lateral range and potentially trigger a stronger bullish rally in the short term.
99K: The nearest support level, aligning with the midpoint of the current range, the 50-period moving average, and the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. This indicates that 99K serves as an important support barrier against bearish movements in the short term. If the price falls below this level in the coming sessions, it could confirm a bearish bias, undermining current market confidence and extending the lateral range.
91K: The final support level, positioned at the lower boundary of the lateral channel and acting as the last barrier before a potential trend reversal. If the price reaches this level, it could trigger strong bearish pressure in the BTC market.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
GOLD ANALYSIShi guys
If you look carefully, there is a liquidity line right next to our OB, which means that the price is MOST likely (90%) to react to the area.
Considering that the general structure of the market is bullish,A bearish position is high risk, that's why I am waiting for the confirmation of the fall, which in fact is a CHOH that i show in chart.
this is just a analyse and The final decision of the position is yours and find entry points according to your own strategy
Silver on the Verge of BREAKOUT: Is a Big Move Coming? Silver Update: Key Levels to Watch
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Current Price: 92300
Key Levels:
Resistance: 92400 (78.6% Fibonacci)
Support: 91400 (61.8% Fibonacci)
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Breakout Above 92450: Bullish move toward 93550 - 93750.
2️⃣ Rejection from 92450: Possible pullback to 91400 support.
Action Plan: Wait for a breakout confirmation or rejection for clear direction.
Conclusion:
Silver is at a critical inflection point. Monitor price action closely for a breakout or breakdown. Use proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀
Stay Tuned for updates!
#Trading #Silver #Fibonacci
GBPAUD-SELLFrom a technical standpoint, my overall position is shorting until it reaches trendline from higher time frame. On 1hr time frame, price action seems to be resisting my 2.0000 zone & bullish movement is decreasing. Market structure us bearish, price reached above 50% fib level, and many other confluences too that confirm a possible bearish move coming up. Because the AUD/USD correlates with GBPAUD, the dollar declined major counterparts on Thursday, showing that the nations economic growth fell short of economist estimates in the fourth quarter of 2024. Advance GDP fell short (2.3%) from forecast (2.7%),, so if dollar weakens, Aussie goes up, driving GBP down. This is only from a technical standpoint. Next week is full of news & data that might change my position but for now, we remain bearish.
GOLD(Bullish Momentum with Potential Correction Before Breakout)The price is currently trading near the last resistance high at 2,789, moving within an ascending channel, indicating an overall bullish structure. The market has maintained a dominant bullish trend after breaking out of the previous consolidation zone and forming a series of higher highs and higher lows.
As the price approaches resistance, a short-term correction is likely. If the price fails to break 2,789, it may experience a pullback towards the support zone at 2,750 – 2,731 before regaining bullish momentum. A successful rebound from this area could provide confirmation for another bullish rally targeting the new high at 2,810.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below 2,750 – 2,731, bearish momentum may take control, pushing the price toward the next key levels at 2,699 and 2,665. This would mark a shift in sentiment, leading to a deeper correction.
XCN is likely to pullback upwards of 40% in the short-term.XCN has been on an absolute tear as of late. Although price action has been incredibly bullish, it is very likely to pull back by upwards of 40% in the short term on the wave four count, reaching the bottom of the bullish wedge pattern before making a significant move to the upside. These bullish moves generally—but not always—comprise a five-wave count within these wedge patterns before making big upside moves, and XCN is currently at or near the top of wave three.
As with anything in trading, this isn't guaranteed, but it is probably more likely than continuing up and breaking out on the wave three count. Therefore, there may be an opportunity for lower-priced entries in the coming days or weeks.
Overall, I'm bullish on XCN, but this perspective is just something to consider.
Good luck, and always use a stop-loss!
ETHUSD On A Bullish RUNEthereum (ETH) is experiencing a strong bullish run against the U.S. dollar (USD), showing an upward price trend fueled by increased buying pressure. Key factors driving this rally include rising investor confidence, growing adoption of Ethereum's network, and positive market sentiment. Technical indicators, such as higher highs and higher lows, support the uptrend, with ETH breaking key resistance levels. If momentum continues, ETHUSD could target higher price zones, but traders should watch for potential pullbacks and resistance areas.
CHECK XAUUSD ANALYSIS SIGNAL UPDATE > GO AND READ THE CAPTAINBaddy dears friends 👋🏼
XAUUSD trading signals technical analysis satup👇🏼
I think now XAUUSD ready for buy trade XAUUSD buy zone
( TRADE SATUP) 👇🏼
enter point (2790) to (2793) 📊
First tp (2800)📊
2nd tp (2805)📊
stop loss (2786)❌
Tachincal analysis satup
Fallow risk management
CAKE correction phase is over#CAKE made a clear ABC pattern as its correction and now its going to rise
in my last analysis on this coin it was clearly
in higher time frames we have a nice pattern in weekly maybe the market would not reach the top line of the channel but if it reaches the middle thats a real huge profit !