Dow Jones INTRADAY supported at 41900Geopolitical Risk: Oil prices spiked after CNN reported Israel may strike Iran’s nuclear sites, increasing market uncertainty. No final decision confirmed yet.
Rising geopolitical tension could weigh on risk sentiment and equities.
Safe-Haven Moves: The Swiss franc and Japanese yen strengthened as investors moved to safety. Reflects cautious tone in global markets, possibly limiting upside for equities.
Morgan Stanley View: Strategists recommend “Buy America” – but not the US dollar, hinting at confidence in US assets (e.g., stocks), while expecting further USD weakness.
Bond Market Shift: Traders expect long-term US bond yields to rise, which could pressure tech and growth stocks in equity indexes like the Nasdaq.
UK Inflation Watch: UK inflation data expected to tick higher — adding to global inflation and rate hike concerns, which may influence market mood.
Trading Outlook:
US equity indexes may open mixed to cautious. Geopolitical risks and rising yields could create headwinds, especially for rate-sensitive sectors. Watch for oil-driven inflation fears, bond yield movements, and shifts in safe-haven flows.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 42950
Resistance Level 2: 43370
Resistance Level 3: 43630
Support Level 1: 41900
Support Level 2: 41500
Support Level 3: 41200
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Community ideas
GBPUSD Hits Institutional Supply – Bearish Rejection Loading…⚠️ GBPUSD Smart Money Setup – Premium Price, Weak Low, Juicy Liquidity Below!
We’ve officially entered Smart Money playground territory on GBPUSD.
Here's what's happening:
🧠 Market Structure Narrative:
🔹 Price ran straight into a premium OB
🔹 Internal structure shift already played out
🔹 Now in distribution territory, prepping for a dump
Price has tapped into a high-probability sell zone (purple OB zone) between 1.34500–1.35000, where Smart Money is most likely positioned to unload shorts.
🟪 Order Block Confluence:
📌 OB Range:
Base: 1.34500
Cap: 1.35000
This zone caused the previous bearish impulse – unmitigated until now
Price reacted sharply upon entry = signs of institutional interest
💡 Clean, unmitigated supply = chef’s kiss setup.
🔻 Liquidity Engineering:
🧊 Below current price sits a “Weak Low” marked around 1.32400
💰 Below that: massive Sell-Side Liquidity at 1.31400
📌 This = high-probability magnet for Smart Money to drive price lower
🔁 Fibonacci Confluence (if applied):
Entry zone aligns with 70.5–79% retracement of previous impulse leg = premium risk zone for pro sellers.
💣 Entry Strategy:
🎯 Sell Zone: 1.34500–1.35000
📍 SL: Above 1.35100 (above OB + liquidity grab buffer)
📍 TP1: 1.32400 (Weak Low)
📍 TP2: 1.31400 (Sell-side Liquidity)
📍 RRR: Up to 1:5+ depending on entry precision
This is a swing trader’s dream — premium risk, maximum reward.
💡 Confirmation Tools:
✅ Bearish engulfing candle on LTF
✅ Internal BOS on M15-H1
✅ Rejection wick from OB or candle body stall = sniper entry
Be the sniper — not the FOMO chaser. 🎯
🧠 Key Lesson:
"Weak lows exist to be broken. OBs exist to be respected. Combine both = Smart Money sniper mode."
Let the trap trigger and ride the liquidity wave down.
🗣️ Drop a 💀 if you’re watching this setup play out!
📌 Save this chart — it’s a Smart Money blueprint.
XAU.usd heads up at $3322: Serious Resistance may End our BouncePart of my ongoing analysis of Gold (see links below).
We got a perfect ABC dip and now an ABC bounce.
But the bounce could end at Genesis fib of $3322.95
If rejected, plan dip to Golden Covid fib at $3,222.15
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Previous Trade Ideas below (click)
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$2964 Dip to ATH trade call:
First Dip wave to 3322 projected :
Secondary Dip to $3100 hit PERFECTLY:
Hit the LIKE to encourage more Precision charts like these
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SPY Intraday Breakdown | Will the Fill Zone Hold?🕰️ 15-Min Chart | May 21, 2025
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
A textbook ascending wedge breakdown has triggered intraday, breaching dynamic support right at the edge of the VWAP envelope. This breakdown aligns with a higher time-frame rejection seen near 598.22 (0.886 retrace zone).
🔍 Intraday Observations:
Structure Break: Rising wedge support snapped → suggests momentum shift short-term.
Next Liquidity Pools:
📍 567.51 – Prior HVN zone and VWAP mid-band
📍 559.30 – Golden pocket + historical positioning from April
Volume Spike: Bearish confirmation on rising sell-side volume.
🧠 Strategic Context:
Macro Tone: Market breathes as participants await key inflation data + Fed speak. Liquidity is not risk-on.
Risk Flow Watch: Options OI building around 560/570 strikes — could magnetize toward there if flow accelerates.
🛡️ Tactical Setup:
Short-Term Bias: Bearish to neutral into 567.5–559.3 zone
Mean Reversion Setup: Watch VWAP / 3-day anchored VWAP cluster around 559 as a potential reload zone
Invalidation: Quick reclaim and hold above 590 with strong volume flips intraday tone bullish again.
📌 Message to Traders:
Major buyers may be lurking below. The market is deciding whether to reward trapped longs or give value buyers their fill at better risk-adjusted zones. We remain liquidity-aware and flexible.
—
🔗 #SPY #IntradayTrading #VolumeProfile #Wavervanir #LiquidityMapping #VWAP #Orderflow #SMC
Gold 100% Trading SignalsFrom the daily chart, the daily K-line has gone through three consecutive positive patterns and broke through the middle track pressure. The current price stands firmly above 3,300 US dollars. The short-term bullish momentum is sufficient. If Wednesday and Thursday are positive, the upper side is 3,347 and 3,400. Therefore, there is a good upward space above the daily line. The 4-hour level breaks through the upper track, the Bollinger opening is upward, and the moving average system diverges upward. Therefore, the cyclicality is absolutely strong and unilateral. Then, the intraday support point is the conversion position of the key points of strength and weakness this week, 3,280. Although the Asian and European sessions have gone out of the direct upward momentum, the principle of not chasing highs is still to wait for a fall back to 3,285 to do more. The small cycle can also be looked at with confidence, without paying too much attention to the back and forth range, and waiting for the Asian and European sessions to adjust and trade. This wave of rise is expected to be seen after Thursday, and then see if there is room for adjustment on Friday.
Gold 100% Profit SignalGold has experienced another roller coaster fluctuation, rising by $45 from 3240 to 3285 in a short period of time. There is no clear news driving the market, and short-term sentiment dominates the market. The current technical indicators show that the effectiveness of 3285 as a key resistance level in the early stage is questionable. If it cannot hold this position, the gold price may fall back to the support range of 3240-3230; if it breaks through 3285, it may trigger short stop loss orders, further impacting the 3300 high pressure area.
AUDCAD Approaching a Breakout Amid RBA Rate CutAUDCAD Approaching a Breakout Amid RBA Rate Cut
AUDCAD is nearing a breakout from a larger triangle pattern.
In the past few hours, the pair dropped nearly 50 pips following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision.
The RBA cut rates by 25 bps , bringing them down to 3.85% from 4.1%. They also signaled a willingness to continue cutting if needed to support the economy.
This marks the first rate cut in a long time where the RBA has openly backed a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a mild sell-off in AUD pairs.
AUDCAD could decline further in the coming hours as the US market reacts to the news.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR/USD Sell – May 21 Bias: Bearish (4H / 1H / 15m all down) and in Orderblocks.
POI: 15m OB
Trigger: 1m BOS from 15m OB (means market reacted → valid)
Entry: On the last untouched 1m OB left behind after the BOS
TP: Final TP at gap (18RR), partial TP at 1:3RR
Risk: Asia high not swept → could spike into SL before dumping
⚠️ Key Notes
Asia High = liquidity → price might hunt it first, then reverse
If you entered before the sweep, SL spike risk is real
If you wait after the sweep and get a clean 1m OB + BOS again = higher probability entry
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
Overall, we can still see red data for the USDJPY, but let's look at the shorts closely. You can see they are being reduced. Check the charts where I highlighted the reports and how I read them.
Hey, what up traders, another week, another COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. I'm always trying to trade with the Big players, so knowing their positions is a good thing.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again, we as retail traders have a disadvantage, but there is the possibility to read between the lines. Remember, in the report is what they want you to see; that's why prices mostly reverse on Wednesday after the report, so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However, if the trend is running, you can read it and use it to your advantage.
📍Tip: If the level has confluence with the high volume on COT, it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
Have a great trading week, see in the next report.
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
GJ-Wed-21/05/25 TDA-Still consolidation GJ!Analysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trades update!
I have two pairs to monitor. (GU and GJ)
It helps me focus on scalping better
If one is consolidating, I can opt for
the other one to trade cleaner price action
And you how many pairs do you trade?
Comment down below!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
NASDAQ: Channel Up to soon initate the new bullish wave.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.876, MACD = 566.960, ADX = 50.516) as it is still holding the Channel Up of almost 1 month back, whose support is the 1H MA200. Right now the price is consolidating around the 1H MA50, approaching the bottom of the pattern. Once it does, we expect it to initate the new bullish wave. With the shortest one of the Channel Up being +5.90%, we remain bullish here and look towards a TP = 22,250 by early next week.
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Golden Cross Brewing on Ethereum — Eyes on $4,000 BreakoutEthereum (ETH) is on the verge of printing a golden cross on the daily chart — a bullish signal where the 21-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historically, this formation has triggered strong upward moves, and current price structure supports the possibility of a similar rally if key resistance is broken.
ETH has already bounced from the Point of Control (POC) and is currently consolidating just under $2,800, a major resistance level that also aligns with the Value Area High (VAH). This confluence makes it a critical breakout zone.
Key Highlights:
Golden Cross Setup: 21MA approaching a bullish crossover of 200MA
Major Resistance: $2,800 (confluence with VAH)
Support Structure: 21MA and 200MA providing bullish structure
Next Target: $4,000 if breakout is confirmed with volume
Volume remains the key missing piece — a breakout above $2,800 without volume may lead to a fakeout, but strong participation could validate the breakout and accelerate a rally toward $4,000.
Watch for price to either consolidate under $2,800 (bullish compression) or break with a volume spike. A confirmed golden cross and breakout could be the trigger for a multi-week bullish expansion, similar to previous patterns in ETH’s history.
NZDUSD to find sellers at market price?NZDUSD - 24h expiry
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Pivot resistance is at 0.5925.
A move through 0.5875 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 0.5750.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
We look to Sell at 0.5925 (stop at 0.5975)
Our profit targets will be 0.5805 and 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5925 / 0.5950 / 0.5975
Support: 0.5850 / 0.5800 / 0.5750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Bearish drop?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has broken out of the support level which has been identified as a pullback support and could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 0.8311
1st Support: 0.8199
1st Resistance: 0.8391
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ASX Bulls Sniff Record HighsASX 200 SPI futures have broken above the 8400 level and May 16 high of 8424, opening the door to a bullish setup—provided the price holds these levels into the close.
Longs could be considered above 8424 with a stop below 8400 for protection, targeting a retest of the record high at 8581. While momentum indicators are nearing overbought territory, they continue to trend higher, keeping the bullish bias intact.
A close below 8400 would invalidate the setup.
Fundamentally, the underlying index remains expensive across several valuation metrics—especially the banking sector, where multiples are hard to justify. But that hasn't stopped the rally so far. Optimism following the RBA’s dovish shift in May is helping fuel the latest breakout.
Good luck!
DS