Community ideas
Gold may need to retreat to around 3300 againYesterday, the gold rebound stopped at around 3358, and then began to retreat. After that, it even failed to stand above 3350 during the rebound process, which to a certain extent hit the confidence of the bulls;
At present, gold has retreated to the area near 3330 again. Although gold has fallen slowly, the center of gravity of gold is still shifting downward in the short term, and the trading volume of gold is gradually increasing when it is falling, so I think the short position may not be over, and the 3330 area may be broken at any time; and the support area that really deserves our attention is first the 3320-3315 area, followed by the 3300-3295 area;
From the current gold structure, I think gold may still test the area near 3300 again before rising. Only after gold retreats to the area near 3300, it is possible to build an A-B-C head and shoulders bottom structure at the technical level (as shown in the figure), which can also help gold build a complete and effective rising structure, so gold has the need to retreat to the area near 3300 to build a right shoulder structure.
Therefore, I think shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present; you can consider shorting gold in the 3335-3355 area, looking at the target area of 3320-3310-3300.
7/1/25 - $sbet - How I'm trading this7/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SBET
How I'm trading this
- tl;dr, this is the first *larger* eth "treasury" attempts
- while the world is focused on AMEX:BMNR today at 10x NAV, this sits quietly at 1.5x nav
- there are two ways shareholders who would buy, say, at today's price would make an "eth yield"
- 1/ co raises debt, converts, prefs etc. any flavor and uses this to buy ETH and ETH appreciates in excess of this yield. my sense is this is more difficult "today" given the institutional view of BTC remains *hard enough* (even tho, really, it's not). but with stable coins becoming more in focus, this gives important life to eth narrative in coming cycle (more on this below)
- 2/ the mNAV is allowed to expand. if i raise at say 1.5x MNAV and then the stock appreciates toward say 3x MNAV and i raise there again to buy eth... the original holders essentially got a pro-rata distribution in excess of their initial stake. where the logic, here, fails... is that if this is your *only* way to raise $... eventually you collapse back to mnav, essentially... the inverse is also true. if you buy at 3x mnav and stock goes to 2x mnav, uh oh. it requires ever-increasing mnav. we know from BTC treasuries this might be up to 5x (mstr) and up to 10x (metaplanet) and really just depends on your story, size, mgmt, ability to raise outside of just equity etc. etc.
- now with this all being said... we look at something like AMEX:BMNR today and there are two main outcomes
- 1/ 10x mnav is too high and likely they're advantaged to raise here and dilute current shareholders to buy ETH and in essence it's tough to imagine much more mnav acceleration (but we *are* in that whacky tape and people are just trading price -- i know this from some comment i read today). fair. if this is the case, flows to NASDAQ:SBET should be very positive
- 2/ mnav from AMEX:BMNR start to collapse toward say 5x and this affects sentiment for other "eth treasury" co's, namely NASDAQ:SBET and this thing goes to 1.2x mnav vs. say 1.5x today... no bueno
-3/ there are others (two others), but above is 80% I think of pie
so why eth? aren't you a BTC only guy V?
- mm yeah BTC is the only commodity
- but i also trade stocks, tech etc. and that's just want these other things are Eth, Sol etc.
- with NASDAQ:HOOD launching their L2 on LSE:ARB the other day, tokenizing stocks, with the realization that banks will want to float and distribute their own stables across crypto rails sooner vs. later (and legislation that's allowing for it... more stables = stronger dollar and USD dominance globally)... CRYPTOCAP:ETH will earn the lionshare of the upside here.
- of course flows will eventually find their way into $sol... CRYPTOCAP:SUI , NYSE:SEI , etc. etc. but for now CRYPTOCAP:ETH is probably the lowest-risk way to play this
- I'm not ruling out that our garden variety pullback sends BTC back to $90k and you know what happens when BTC sneezes... everyone else catches a flu. So that could really hamper CRYPTOCAP:ETH action short term.
- But I like the idea of playing not only CRYPTOCAP:ETH at a *reasonable* valuation here (you do pay 50% more! keep that in mind), but there seems to be a willingness to overpay (as AMEX:BMNR shows). so i'm content to neck out here to capture a 50-100% move. but small enough to either size up, look elsewhere and/or close with a loss without any flesh wounds.
tl;dr... if u like $bmnr... u should like NASDAQ:SBET more.
V
USDJPY is showing an historical patternThe USDJPY is forming a head and shoulders pattern and has a very clear support line at 140.
If the price goes below this line, we could see a big drop in the pair, with the first easy target at 130 and a second, more difficult target at 120. The risk is very low, and also, currency pairs allow you to use leverage to earn much higher profits.
How High is High Enough - welcome to the Void & VanityUS500 | ATH Extension and Rebalancing Outlook
What is going on beyond the surface? – Here is how I will anticipate next move.
Today , price carved a new All-Time High (ATH) , extending beyond Monday’s peak and breaching the previously defined Sell Limit Bound at 6173 .
6173 level capped prior upside and served as the structural ceiling on the weekly timeframe – would demand balance.
While price has cleared 6173 , failure to retain acceptance above it raises the possibility of a rebalancing phase —necessary before any sustainable bullish expansion. This retracement, if triggered, would offer clarity on whether this breakout is a continuation or merely a premature exploration into thin liquidity.
📌 Key Observations:
• 6173 – Breached, but yet to prove retention. A weekly close and reaccumulation above here is required to maintain bullish momentum.
• 6577–6408 – Marked as a hidden liquidity pool and potential upside target zone. Price may hunt for this range, but only if it holds structurally above 6173.
• Below 6173 – Failure to anchor here may trigger a rebalance into prior value areas before any serious upside projection takes form.
Price must find equilibrium before the next leg. Any upside without that balance risks collapsing under its own weight.
I have shorted gold as expected and held on patientlyEven under the influence of the ADP data, which is bullish for the gold market, gold has not effectively broken through 3350, and even showed signs of falling back after rising several times. The resistance above is becoming more and more obvious, which may further weaken the market's bullish sentiment and confidence, thereby strengthening the dominance of the bears.
Although gold has not effectively fallen yet, from the perspective of the gold structure, even if gold wants to rise, it still needs to be backtested and support confirmed before rising, and the current retracement is far from enough, so gold still has a need for structural retracement; and before the NFP market, gold rose slowly but was far from enough to break upward, and there was no volume support, so the illusion of gold rising may be to lure and capture more bulls;
Therefore, out of caution, I try to avoid chasing gold at high levels; and I believe that shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present. And I have executed short trades in the 3340-3350 area according to the trading plan, and held it patiently. I hope that gold can retreat to the 3320-3310-3300 area as expected.
BTCUSDT: Trend in 2H time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames.
A strong move requires a correction to major support and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
QBTS: Bottoming Structure with 40% Upside PotentialNYSE:QBTS just posted its cleanest bounce attempt in weeks.
📈 Technical Breakdown
Ichimoku Cloud: Price reclaiming base support near the flat Kumo floor — showing signs of early trend reversal.
MACD: Bearish momentum is slowing; histogram is contracting, and the signal lines are curling. A crossover is in sight.
Entry Zone: Sitting on the pivot at $13.39 with clean structure.
Target: $21.01 (+40.69%)
Stop: $12.82 (-14.57%)
R/R: 2.79 — favorable skew
Price has room to run toward R1 with thin resistance overhead. This is a speculative breakout candidate, but the structure is tight and risk is defined.
🌐 Macro Lens
D-Wave sits at the intersection of quantum computing and AI. If tech sentiment rotates bullish, this could be a sleeper.
The end of the downward trend for the dollar index on the stockAccording to market structure, a new bullish trend is approaching. The stock market clearly reflects the overvaluation of its main exchanges. Everything seems to indicate that there will be news about the Fed's strengthening of interest rates. Something will happen. Long-term entries for USDXYZ assets, and short XYZUSD. MY POINT OF VIEW ON THE STOCK MARKET.
GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.370.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.378 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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BTC with potential for $115,000/$120,000🔍 Market structure (Price Action)
📈 Trend:
The market previously formed higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) – a classic uptrend.
Then there was a correction and a lower high (LH) and lower low (LL) appeared – a potential change in the trend to a downtrend.
The last two lows are again HL (Higher Lows) – suggesting an attempt to return to the uptrend.
🔄 Key support and resistance levels
✅ Resistance (green horizontal lines):
117.469 – local resistance and potential breakout target from the current range.
115.802 – confirmed resistance from previous consolidations.
111.814 – strong local resistance (LH – Lower High formed there).
109.341 – current resistance, the price is currently testing it.
🛑 Support (red horizontal lines):
105.370 – local support, price reacted at this level in recent days.
102.650 – important support, level of previous HL.
100.095 – consolidation level before breaking out upwards.
98.213 – last LL – very important level in the context of defending the structure.
🧭 Structure of peaks and troughs
HH: Higher High – confirmed the previous uptrend.
LH: Lower High – first warning about changing the structure to down.
LL: Lower Low – confirmed a potential change to downside.
HL (x2): two more higher lows – suggest a possible return to growth.
📊 Stochastic RSI (at the bottom of the chart)
The oscillator is currently in the overbought zone (>80), approaching a downward crossover.
It suggests a possible short-term halt in growth or correction.
But in strong trends it may "stick" to the upper range.
📌 Potential scenarios:
🟢 Bullish:
If the price breaks above 109.341, it may test 111.814 and then 115.802.
Continuation of the HL → HH formation will confirm a trend reversal and further growth.
🔴 Bearish:
If the price does not stay above 109k and breaks below 105.370, there is a risk of a test of 102.650 and lower.
A break of 100.095 and especially 98.213 will negate the growth structure.
🧠 Conclusions:
The market is at a key decision point - HL formation vs. resistance zone.
Buyers' strength will be confirmed only after breaking 111-112k.
Stochastic RSI warns of potential pullback or consolidation.
Gold bulls and bears compete for non-agricultural dataTechnical aspects:
Currently, gold is in a typical ascending triangle structure, reflecting that the market bullish trend has not been broken but faces strong resistance. On the daily chart, gold as a whole maintains a range of $3250 to $3400, with obvious horizontal support and resistance bands formed at both ends of the range.
The Bollinger Bands are converging as a whole, indicating that volatility is shrinking, indicating that the large-scale direction selection is approaching. The green column of the MACD indicator has narrowed slightly, and the short-term momentum is still bearish but there are signs of weakening. The RSI indicator runs around 49, maintaining a neutral and bearish state, and there is no obvious deviation in the short term, suggesting that there is still the possibility of subsequent shocks and consolidation.