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Polkadot: Shaky SupportPolkadot remains weak, barely holding onto the round $4 mark on Friday. Primarily, we soon expect another sell-off below the support at $3.67 and into the orange Target Zone between $2.40 and $1.07. Once the low of the magenta wave is reached down there, the next major impulsive movement can start and carry the price back above the resistance at $5.38. If Polkadot turns sustainably upward now and directly breaks through the $5.38 mark, the next magenta impulse wave alt. will begin prematurely. In this 20% likely alternative scenario, the corrective structure (still ongoing according to the primary scenario) would have already been completed with the low of March 11.
BINANCE:DOTUSD
by MarketIntel
GOLD corrects after hot rally, conditions remain optimisticOANDA:XAUUSD has retreated from an all-time high of $3,167.67/oz as investors began to take profits after a “parabolic” rally. While the rally was initially fueled by safe-haven demand stemming from US President Donald Trump’s plans for higher tariffs, questions are starting to arise about the sustainability of the rally as buying pressure wanes and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves into overbought territory. Gold has rallied 19% so far in 2025 and this correction could be temporary Gold prices have rallied 19% this year, supported by multiple macro uncertainties, historic central bank buying and continued inflows into ETFs. Despite the current pullback, from a fundamental perspective, this does not impact the overall bullish fundamental trend and the likelihood of near-term technical consolidation has begun to increase. Trump’s tariffs a “catalyst” supporting the physical gold market? Trump's proposal to impose 10% tariffs on most imports has stoked market concerns about slowing economic growth and rising business costs, while risk aversion has pushed gold prices higher. However, the White House later clarified that "critical raw materials" including gold, copper and energy would be exempt, alleviating some concerns about supply chain disruptions and providing some support to the physical gold market. Market sentiment remains bullish, with strong buying momentum on dips Although the technical side is currently under some pressure, the market's optimism remains unshaken. It is difficult to try to assess the peak near the historical high, but it is clear that every pullback is quickly absorbed by buyers, which shows that the underlying bullish sentiment in the market is still strong. Described by the sharp drop on Thursday, gold recovered very quickly after the drop. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold may enter a correction phase after a long period of hot growth, depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below the overbought level, breaking the blue bullish channel. In the short term, if gold breaks below the short-term channel, converging with the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level, it will be in a position to correct further with the next target level around $3,066 in the short term, more than $3,040. However, overall, gold still has a bullish technical outlook with the price channel as the long-term trend and the main support from the EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, the declines should be considered as corrections and not a trend. On the other hand, once gold recovers from the 0.50% Fibonacci extension and holds above the raw price point of $3,100, it will signal the end of the correction cycle, then the upside target will be the 0.786% Fibonacci extension in the short-term. During the day, the long-term uptrend with the possibility of a short-term correction will be noticed again by the following positions. Support: 3,086 – 3,066 – 3,040USD Resistance: 3,100 – 3,106 – 3,135USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3147 - 3145⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3151 →Take Profit 1 3139 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3133 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3061 - 3063⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3057 →Take Profit 1 3069 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3075
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed sharply lower due to the aftermath of tariff impositions. Following a significant gap-down, the index broke below the lower Bollinger Band, intensifying selling pressure. Yesterday’s bearish candlestick confirmed a sell signal, leading to an expanded third wave of selling. The index has now reached the previous support zone near 18,500, with additional volatility expected due to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech. On the monthly chart, the Nasdaq is forming a lower shadow around the 20-month moving average. Given the sharp decline, if further selling occurs, oversold conditions may trigger a strong rebound, making it risky to chase shorts at this stage. The 240-minute chart also shows a sell signal, with heavy selling pressure continuing. However, this is a risky zone to enter new short positions, so it's advisable to monitor short-term price movements before making a move. Regardless of whether you take long or short positions, due to high volatility, make sure to set stop-loss levels and adjust leverage to a manageable risk level. Additionally, the VIX surged, forming a large bullish candle and reaching its March 11 high. With the VIX in an uptrend and a buy signal appearing, further volatility expansion is likely. However, since it has reached a key resistance zone, a short-term pullback in the VIX could allow for a Nasdaq rebound. For the VIX to break above its previous high, a period of consolidation may be necessary. Given the strong buying momentum on both the weekly and monthly charts, this should be taken into consideration when forming a trading strategy. Crude Oil Crude oil plunged following the OPEC meeting, where supply increases became a key issue. While oversupply concerns are a factor, the economic slowdown fears from tariffs have also played a major role in the decline. Previously, $68 was considered a strong support level, but oil collapsed from $72 in a steep decline. The final key support lies around $66. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero line, suggesting that once a new wave begins, it could lead to a strong trend movement. Depending on today's session and Monday’s market, oil could see an aggressive breakout in either direction. Current candlestick patterns indicate that the weekly chart remains bearish, meaning holding long positions over the weekend carries significant risk. The 240-minute chart also confirms a strong sell signal, with MACD plummeting. Oil may form a temporary sideways range near the $66 support, but if this level breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Ensure you manage stop-loss risks carefully in case of further downside. Gold Gold declined, reacting to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar's value. The price failed to hold above $3,200 and dropped below the 5-day moving average. Gold has been in a one-way trend, so a bullish approach remains valid unless it breaks below the 10-day MA. However, it has now entered a range-bound phase, and MACD on the daily chart is nearing the signal line, suggesting potential downside risks. The MACD failed to break its February highs, increasing the likelihood of divergence, which could trigger a strong correction if selling intensifies. With rising market volatility and today's NFP release, further wild swings in gold prices are expected. The 240-minute chart has shown a sell signal, leading to a sharp decline. However, the price has found support near a key resistance-turned-support zone. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, gold may continue trading within a range in the short term. On shorter timeframes, candlestick volatility is high, so reducing leverage and widening stop ranges would be a prudent strategy. During periods of extreme market volatility, technical analysis may become less effective, as market sentiment often overrides chart patterns. As always, trade only within your manageable volatility range. The market is always open, so even if you incur losses, there will always be opportunities to recover. Manage risk wisely, and best of luck with your trades today! If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
The Day Ahead US Jobs & FED Powell speech US March Jobs Report Most important release this week. Strong report boosts the dollar and bond yields Weak report supports stocks and pressures the dollar Canada March Jobs Report Strong numbers lift the Canadian dollar Weak numbers weigh on CAD Germany, France, Italy Data Includes factory orders, industrial production, and retail sales Weak data puts pressure on the euro Strong data supports the euro Japan February Household Spending Low spending signals continued Bank of Japan easing, weakens the yen Higher spending may support the yen UK March Car Sales and Construction PMI Positive surprises could lift the pound Sweden March CPI Hot inflation could delay rate cuts and support the krona Cooler CPI may lead to SEK weakness Central Bank Watch Fed’s Powell and Barr Speaking Hawkish tone strengthens the dollar and lifts yields Dovish comments could boost risk assets and weaken the dollar This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
AUDUSD SELLVoici la version fusionnée et traduite en anglais : --- **📉 AUDUSD: Ongoing Correction – Where to Enter? 🤔** On **AUDUSD**, in the **weekly timeframe**, we’ve seen a **break of the key support at 0.635**. Since then, the market has been in a **bullish correction**, following an **ascending trendline**, with several levels already broken to the downside. 📊 📍 **Key Points to Watch:** 🔹 A **potential continuation of the downtrend**, especially if the **USD regains strength** (see **DXY**). 🔹 **Where to enter and where to place the stop?** That’s the big question! 💬 **What’s your take on AUDUSD? Are you ready to follow this move?** Good luck and happy trading! 🚀 --- **📉 AUDUSD: Strong Volatility After Trump’s Speech – Stay Alert!** Trump’s speech brought a **wave of volatility** to AUDUSD. **We’re closely monitoring how the market reacts** and what key levels come into play next. 🔹 **The big question now:** Will we see a **continuation of the downtrend**, or is this just a technical rebound? 🔹 **What to watch:** The next **H4/Daily closes** to confirm direction. 👀 **Are you already in position on AUDUSD, or are you waiting for more confirmation?** 💬
Short
by MaitreForex
USDJPY Buying SetupUSDJPY is currently sitting in a key support zone, signaling a potential bullish momentum build-up. This bias is supported by the formation of a strong bullish candle at the level, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Importantly, price has respected structure—no lower low (LL) was formed. Instead, we’ve got a clean higher low (HL), which aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation scenario. Take-profits (TPs) and stop-loss (SL) levels are chosen with precision, keeping recent market structure and volatility in mind. As always, proper risk management is crucial for capital protection. Regards Sherry
Long
by Trade_With_Sherry
NZDUSD: Rejection possible on the 1D MA200.NZDUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.829, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 25.517) as it is on the bullish wave of the 8 month Channel Down. The trend should be turning bearish soon however as not only is the pair approaching the top of the Channel Down but also the 1D MA200 and has completed a +6.18% increase like the June 12th 2024 high did. The 1D RSI is already ranged and is losing momentum so this may be the perfect level to sell. The trade is short, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 0.55250). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
Bitcoin vs. Global M2 | 10-Week Lead Correlation This chart highlights the strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price (RHS, blue) and Global M2 Money Supply (10-week lead, orange), suggesting that Bitcoin’s price action lags behind global liquidity trends by approximately 10 weeks. Historically, increases in M2 have led to bullish Bitcoin movements, making M2 a leading indicator for BTC’s price action. Bitcoin has closely followed M2’s trajectory, and the chart marks April 9 as a key turning point, with a critical support level around $79,470. Given M2’s prior surge, Bitcoin is expected to initiate a strong upward move post-April 9, potentially pushing toward six figures ($100K+) in Q2 2024 if the correlation holds. While short-term consolidation or a retest of $79,470 remains possible, the medium-term outlook remains bullish. If M2 continues to rise, Bitcoin is likely to follow, with projected targets in the $95K - $110K+ range. However, macroeconomic risks, such as a slowdown in M2 growth or liquidity tightening, could delay the expected breakout. Key Takeaways: April 9 marks a potential breakout point for Bitcoin, following M2’s lead. Key support: $79,470 (a potential bounce zone before the rally). Medium-term targets: $95K - $110K+ by mid-2024. Watch Global M2 trends—continued liquidity growth supports a Bitcoin bull run. If Bitcoin maintains its correlation with M2, this liquidity-driven cycle could propel BTC to new all-time highs in the coming months. 🚀
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Hussdynasty