BTC - Analyzing monthly momentum shifts with the Stoch RSI!What is the stoch rsi?
The Stochastic RSI (Stoch RSI) is a momentum indicator that applies the stochastic oscillator to the RSI, making it more sensitive to price changes. The Stochastic RSI has two lines:
Blue line = the fast momentum line
Orange line = the slower momentum line
How It Works:
* Helps identify overbought (above 80) and oversold (below 20) conditions.
* Crossing above 20 signals possible bullish momentum.
* Crossing below 80 signals possible bearish momentum.
Why Use It?
* Reacts faster than regular RSI.
* Helps spot momentum shifts and reversals.
* Best used with other indicators for confirmation.
Analyzing the Monthly BTC Chart Through the Lens of Stochastic RSI: A Cycle Comparison
in this discussion, we’ll take a deep dive into the monthly Bitcoin (BTC) chart and examine how the Stochastic RSI aligns with previous market cycles, dating back to 2016. By comparing BTC’s historical price action with Stoch RSI signals, we aim to identify recurring patterns, overbought and oversold conditions, and how momentum shifts have played a role in past bull and bear markets. Understanding these correlations could provide valuable insights into where BTC currently stands in its broader cycle and what to expect next. Let’s break it down.
Let's dive into the bullmarket of 2016/2017:
In 2016 and 2017, the Stochastic RSI on the monthly BTC chart stayed consistently above the 80 level, often fluctuating between 80 and 100. During this period, the blue line occasionally crossed below the orange line, signaling a short-term pullback. When this cross occurred, it was typically followed by a red candle in the next month, indicating a brief dip before the price continued its upward movement. This pattern appeared multiple times throughout the bull market, allowing BTC to make higher highs and pushing the price further up.
However, the key turning point came when both the blue and orange lines crossed below the 80 level. This marked a shift in momentum, often leading to a significant drop in price or even a bear market phase. When the Stochastic RSI fell below 80 and remained there, it indicated that bullish momentum had stalled, and a potential reversal or prolonged downtrend was likely to follow. This was a critical signal for traders to watch during the bull cycle.
What happened in 2019-2021?
In 2019, the Stochastic RSI on the monthly BTC chart quickly moved from the oversold region to the overbought area, reflecting a rapid surge in BTC’s price during that time. This sharp movement in the Stochastic RSI mirrored the fast-paced price increase. However, once the Stochastic RSI entered the overbought zone, the blue line crossed below the orange line, signaling a potential reversal. When this happened, the Stochastic RSI fell below the 80 level, indicating that bullish momentum was weakening.
This crossover was a critical signal of potential downside, suggesting that BTC could experience a correction or even an extended period of bearish pressure. The decline in the Stochastic RSI below 80 marked the beginning of a phase where BTC faced increased downside momentum, leading to a correction in price for months.
Later in the cycle BTC and the Stoch RSI went up to the overbought area ones again. When the Stoch RSI with the blue and orange line crossed below the 80 was the start of a prolonged bear market.
What occured in this cycle?
In the current cycle of Bitcoin (BTC), there have been three notable crosses on the Stochastic RSI, which offer important insights into market conditions. The first cross stayed above the 80 level, which typically signals an overbought condition. When the Stochastic RSI is above 80, it indicates that the market may be experiencing strong bullish momentum, but it's also at risk of becoming overextended, potentially signaling a reversal.
However, the other two crosses occurred as the Stochastic RSI moved below the 80 level, which is generally interpreted as a sign that the bullish momentum is weakening and that further downside could be in play. The fact that these two crosses occurred below the 80 level suggests that the overbought conditions are being worked off, and momentum may be shifting to the downside.
The last cross is still in play. The momentum is quickly turning to the downside while BTC is facing downside pressure
How can we compare this cycle with the last ones?
In the last cycle of BTC, there were two key crosses of the Stochastic RSI below the 80 level, both of which marked important turning points for the market.
The first cross below the 80 level triggered a significant crash of around 70%, which was a sharp correction from the bull market's peak. This steep drop signified a clear shift in market sentiment, with the bearish trend beginning to take hold. The second cross below 80 marked the official start of the bear market, though it wasn’t as dramatic as the first crash.
An interesting aspect of the second cross was that Bitcoin briefly made a slightly higher high before the decline, which might have seemed like a potential sign of recovery or a continuation of the bullish trend. However, this higher high was not sustainable, and the bearish momentum quickly took over, confirming that the market had turned decisively to the downside. This higher high can often be seen as a bull trap, where traders were temporarily lured into thinking the market was rebounding, only for the price to reverse sharply.
In contrast, the cycle before this one was marked by Bitcoin staying consistently above the 80 level for the entire duration of the bull market. The Stochastic RSI remained elevated, reflecting strong bullish momentum and a prolonged uptrend. Once the Stochastic RSI crossed below the 80 level, it signaled the official start of the bear market. This transition from above to below 80 is often seen as a clear indication that the overbought conditions had been worked off, and the market was beginning to lose its bullish steam.
In both cycles, the Stochastic RSI's behavior has been crucial in identifying key points where the market shifted from bullish to bearish. In the most recent cycle, the sharp crash following the first cross below 80 and the subsequent bear market beginning with the second cross below 80 highlight the significance of this indicator in forecasting major market changes. Meanwhile, in the previous cycle, the sustained time spent above 80 helped to keep the bullish momentum intact until the market finally reversed with that pivotal cross below 80.
These patterns suggest that once Bitcoin’s Stochastic RSI starts crossing below the 80 level after an extended period of bullish movement, it’s a strong signal that the market is entering a phase of weakness and may eventually lead to a bear market.
Conclusion:
The current cycle shows similarities to the 2019/2021 cycle, particularly with the second cross down on the Stochastic RSI, which previously marked a local top. There is a strong possibility that this could signal a cycle top.
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BITCOIN Bollinger squeeze and 1D Death Cross aiming at $150kBitcoin (BTCUSD) will complete today a 1D Death Cross (1D MA50 crossing below the 1D MA200). A technically bearish pattern in theory but in practice it has been one of the greatest buy signals during the 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle.
** Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross, 1W MA50 **
As you can see, since the long-term Channel Up started with the November 21 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, we have had another two 1D Death Crosses. Both took place on the Channel Up bottoms (September 04 2023 and August 05 2024), serving as Higher Lows for the pattern. At the same time, the price had a test (or close) of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), while the Bollinger Bands (blue cloud) have already started to squeeze.
This squeeze is critical as it was even present during the November 21 2022 Bear market bottom, having started a little earlier on October 31 2022. In fact the squeeze started earlier on all three bottom phases and even on the current price action we are seeing so far a Bollinger Squeeze since March 17 2025, a little after the near test of the 1W MA50.
** The Transition Month **
In typical cyclical manner, each year had one Channel Up bottom. This bottom process (consisting of the Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross and 1W MA50 test) technically appears once a year. We call this month 'Transition Month', which is the necessary phase that BTC spends to go from the bottom to the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up. In 2022 that month was December, in 2023 it was September and in 2024 August. Since all bottom conditions have been met this time also, we expect April to be the 2025 Transition Month.
** What's next? **
As far as the next leg up in concerned, all 3 previous Bullish Legs rose by at least +100% from the bottom. Since March 10 was the close test of the 1W MA50, we can consider that the bottom from which to measure the +100% leg up. That suggests that BTC will hit at least $150000 on the next top.
But what do you think? Has this Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross, 1W MA50 Triple Combo just priced the new bottom? And if yes, will April be the Transition Month for the new Bullish Leg to $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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AUDUSD I Weekly CLS , KL - Order Block, Model 2Hey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
Shorting BitcoinBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin put a massive Bearish Engulfing Candle yesterday, with high volume, which is very bearish, and now I’m expecting it to continue to decline.
It also tends to follow the US Indices, which are heading lower.
My target is about 70k, maybe even lower.
Good luck to you
NVDA’s Final Act: A Breakout Waiting to HappenNVDA appears to be nearing the completion of its corrective phase, setting the stage for a potential move to new highs. The current pattern resembles a falling wedge, indicative of an ending diagonal formation, which often signals a reversal and the start of an upward trend.
The structure of the corrective channel, along with the termination of the diagonal pattern, suggests a high likelihood of a running flat formation. Buyers are likely to intensify demand pressure as the price approaches the lower boundary of the trendline. A trend reversal may occur if there is a decisive breakout above the Wave 4 level of the ending diagonal.
Buying opportunity with minimal stop is possible after the reversal from lower side of the channel. Targets can be 112 - 120 - 132 - 140.
I'll be sharing more details shortly.
Avalanche's Higher Low Indicates The Bottom Is InAVAX is currently trading above its August 2024 bottom low price, and this is bullish.
AVAXUSDT produced a major low on the 10-March trading session. The current session is a higher low compared to this date. This is a double bullish signal. The August low and last month. Both are active, valid and hold.
So the August 2024 low was actually tested and pierced but the session close happened above this level. The bottom back then was $17.27. In March, AVAXUSDT went as low as $15.30 but closed at $17.51. The next session went below again and hit $16.95 but closed at $18.5. As you can see, the bulls win.
The current session is green after four sessions closing red. Each session has two candles, 48 hours (2D candles).
Here we have the activation of long-term support. Classic behaviour before a major bullish run.
The dynamic is always this: The correction unravels and gains momentum before reaching its end. When it hits bottom, there is a strong reaction causing a sudden bullish jump. This bullish jump is short-lived and quickly corrected. This short-term correction ends in a higher low. From this higher low, prices start a new wave of growth. We are entering this new growing phase now.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
This is another time based chart.
The time to enter is now, always focusing on the long-term.
We buy now with the patience and mindset to hold between 6-8 months. If this can be done, easy and big wins will be yours.
The 2025 All-Time High potential and more can be found by visiting my profile.
Thanks a lot for the follow. Your support is appreciated.
Namaste.
DOGE I Weekly CLS, KL - 3M OB, Model 2, Target Range highHey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
I wish you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Time To RecoverThe Dollar Index appears poised for a retreat after testing a key support area on a 4-hour chart.
A robust bullish engulfing candle indicates strong buying activity in that region.
As a confirmation, I see a cup and handle pattern on that and a breakout of its neckline.
I anticipate a bullish upswing to at least 102.79.
$100, $1,000, $100,000 — When Numbers Become Turning PointsHey! Have you ever wondered why 100 feels... special? 🤔
Round numbers are like hidden magnets in the market. 100. 500. 1,000. They feel complete. They stand out. They grab our attention and make us pause. In financial markets, these are the levels where price often slows down, stalls, or makes a surprising turn.
I’ll admit, once I confused the market with real life. I hoped a round number would cause a reversal in any situation. Like when I stepped on the scale and saw a clean 100 staring back at me, a level often known as strong resistance. I waited for a bounce, a sudden reversal... but nothing. The market reacts. My body? Not so much. 🤷♂️
The market reacts. But why? What makes these numbers so powerful? The answer lies in our minds, in market dynamics, and in our human tendency to crave simplicity.
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Psychology: Why our brain loves round numbers
The human mind is designed to create structure. Round numbers are like lighthouses in the chaos — simple, memorable, and logical. If someone asks how much your sofa cost, you’re more likely to say "a grand" than "963.40 dollars." That’s normal. It’s your brain seeking clarity with minimal effort.
In financial markets, round numbers become key reference points. Traders, investors, even algorithms gravitate toward them. If enough people believe 100 is important, they start acting around that level — buying, selling, waiting. That belief becomes reality, whether it's rational or not. We anchor decisions to familiar numbers because they feel safe, clean, and "right."
Walmart (WMT) and the $100 mark
Round numbers also carry emotional weight. 100 feels like a milestone, a finish line. It’s not just a number, it’s both an ending and a beginning.
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Round numbers in the market: Resistance and support
Round number as a resistance
Imagine a stock climbing steadily: 85, 92, 98... and then it hits 100. Suddenly, it stalls. Why? Investors who bought earlier see 100 as a "perfect" profit point. "A hundred bucks. Time to sell." Many pre-set sell orders are already waiting. Most people don’t place orders at $96.73. They aim for 100. A strong and symbolic.
At the same time, speculators and short sellers may step in, viewing 100 as too high. This creates pressure, slowing the rally or pushing the price back down.
If a stock begins its journey at, say, $35, the next key round levels for me are: 50, 100, 150, 200, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000…
Slide from my training materials
These levels have proven themselves again and again — often causing sideways movement or corrections. When I recently reviewed the entire S&P 500 list, for example $200 showed up consistently as a resistance point.
It’s pure psychology. Round numbers feel "high" — and it's often the perfect moment to lock in profits and reallocate capital. Bitcoin at $100,000. Netflix at $1,000. Tesla at $500. Walmart at $100. Palantir at $100. These are just a few recent examples.
Round number support: A lifeline for buyers
The same logic works in reverse. When price falls through 130, 115, 105... and lands near 100, buyers often step in. "100 looks like a good entry," they say. It feels like solid ground after a drop. We love comeback stories. Phoenix moments. Underdogs rising. Buy orders stack up and the price drop pauses.
Some examples:
Meta Platforms (META)
Amazon.com (AMZN) — $100 acted as resistance for years, then became support after a breakout
Tesla (TSLA)
-------------------------------------
Why round numbers work for both buyers and sellers
Buyers and the illusion of a bargain
If a stock falls from 137 to 110 and approaches 100, buyers feel like it’s hit bottom. Psychologically, 100 feels cheap and safe. Even if the company’s fundamentals haven’t changed, 100 just "feels right." It’s like seeing a price tag of $9.99 — our brain rounds it down and feels like we got an epic deal.
Sellers and the "perfect" exit
When a stock rises from 180 to 195 and nears 200, many sellers place orders right at 200. "That’s a nice round number, I’ll exit there." There’s emotional satisfaction. The gain feels cleaner, more meaningful, when it ends on a round note.
To be fair, I always suggest not waiting for an exact level like 200. If your stock moved through 145 > 165 > 185, don’t expect perfection. Leave room. A $190 target zone makes more sense. Often, greed kills profit before it can be realized. Don’t squeeze the lemon dry.
Example: My Tesla analysis on TradingView with a $500 target — TESLA: Money On Your Screen 2.0 | Lock in Fully…
Before & After: As you see there, the zone is important, not the exact number.
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Round numbers in breakout trades
When price reaches a round number, the market often enters a kind of standoff. Buyers and sellers hesitate. The price moves sideways, say between 90 and 110. Psychologically, it’s a zone of indecision. The number is too important to ignore, but the direction isn’t clear until news or momentum pushes it.
When the direction is up and the market breaks above a key level, round numbers work brilliantly for breakout trades or strength-based entries.
Slide from my training materials
People are willing to pay more once they see the price break through a familiar barrier. FOMO kicks in. Those who sold earlier feel regret and jump back in. And just like that, momentum builds again — until the next round-number milestone.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — every round number so far has caused mild corrections or sideways action. I’d think $500 won’t be any different.
-------------------------------------
Conclusion: Simplicity rules the market
Round numbers aren’t magic. They work because we, the people, make the market. We love simplicity, patterns, and emotional anchors. These price levels are where the market breathes, pauses, thinks, and decides. When you learn to recognize them, you gain an edge — not because the numbers do something, but because crowds do.
A round number alone is never a reason to act.
If a stock drops to 100, it doesn’t mean it’s time to buy. No single number works in isolation. You need a strategy — a set of supporting criteria that together increase the odds. Round numbers are powerful psychological levels, but the real advantage appears when they align with structure and signals.
Keep round numbers on your radar. They’re the market’s psychological mirror, and just like us, the market loves beautiful numbers.
If this article made you see price behavior differently, or gave you something to think about, feel free to share it.
🙌 So, that's it! A brief overview and hopefully, you found this informative. If this article made you see price behavior differently, or gave you something to think about, feel free to share it & leave a comment with your thoughts!
Before you leave - Like & Boost if you find this useful! 🚀
Trade smart,
Vaido
Bitcoin At $250,000 In 2025: Bull-Market Entry (Buy) Zone ActiveBitcoin's 2025 bull-market buy-zone is still active. Actually, Bitcoin is at a great price right now. We are aiming for a target of $250,000 for this cycle. We are looking at the bottom right now, literally. Any buy below $90,000 is extremely good and below $80,000 a dream come-true. This will be obvious in just a matter of weeks.
How are you feeling today?
I hope the start of the weekend is treating you good.
This is a friendly reminder, Bitcoin has been sideways for months. When Bitcoin drops, it drops but, currently, there are no new lows.
Bitcoin peaked in December 2024 and produced a double-top in January 2025. A small retrace and that's it; the accumulation phase is ongoing and the buy-zone active.
There are many signals that support a correction bottom being in. We looked at these already so you will have to trust me. Leverage is possible on this setup. Leverage for a long-term trade. This is the best possible scenario and the best type of trade.
No complexities. No calculators. No fees. No interest, just buy and hold.
Wait patiently... It will be a very strong rise and the Altcoins will grow even more than Bitcoin. The entire Cryptocurrency market will produce maximum growth.
This post is intended to alert of you a great entry-timing. Great prices as well but timing right now is great. We might have to wait a bit longer, it won't move right away, but with this price you can't go wrong.
I am wishing you tons of profits in 2025 and financial success.
Thank you for reading.
If you are new, feel free to follow.
Master Ananda for you (formerly Alan Santana).
Namaste.
Last Wave Of Bear Market Is Happening Now For Altcoins Hello, Skyrexians!
As usual, recently we faced with a lot of hate when posted the article about Bitcoin Dominance growth, yesterday we analyzed a lot of charts on different time frames to make the most precise analysis for you. Hope it will be the truth. We really tried to do our best, please, don't criticize it too much!
We made this analysis briefly to simplify it for you. We are now in the last bearish wave for altcoin dominance, you can open 1 month time frame and see it. Now we dive into the current subwave on the daily time frame. Here we can see the clear view of Elliott waves cycle. Wave 4 has the triangle shape, it gives us more confidence that now price is printing wave 5. If we analyze only 1D time frame the target is 7-7.5%. There wait for bullish divergence and price will likely reverse.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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BTCUSD: 1D Death Cross can push it to $150k by August.Bitcoin turned bearish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.071, MACD = -1375.000, ADX = 26.965) showcasing the high volatility that yesterday's tariffs announcement inflicted. 1W remains marginally neutral though (RSI = 45.519), highlighting the long term buy opportunity the current levels present.
The market is about to form the first 1D Death Cross, which occurs when the 1D MA50 crosses under the 1D MA200, since August 9th 2024. Even though that's technically a bearish formation, it has worked only as a bottom market during the current Bull Cycle. Both the Aug 9th 2024 and September 11th 2023 1D Death Crosses were formed exactly when BTC bottomed. In symmetric fashion the first two were formed 150 days after the previous high and rose by at least +96.86% by the 1.786 Time Fibonacci extension. Also both bottoms held the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
This time the 1D Death Cross will be formed approximately 109 days after the previous high, which means that this phase is more aggressive than the others and may equally be more aggresive on the bullish wave too. Still, if it 'just' repeats the previous ones, we estimate to reach $150,000 by this August.
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USDJPY Faces Strong Resistance at 151.20 USDJPY Faces Strong Resistance at 151.20
USDJPY tested a strong resistance zone near 151.20. The initial reaction was solid, reinforcing the importance of this level.
Sellers appear to be defending 151.20, as the price has moved down twice after testing the area, successfully halting bullish momentum both times.
If this resistance holds, USDJPY could continue its downward move toward these targets: 🎯 148.85 🎯 148.20 🎯 146.95 🎯 145.80
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Understanding MACD In TradingThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that measures the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, MACD is designed to provide insights into both trend strength and momentum.
Unlike simple moving averages, which merely smooth price data over a specific period, MACD goes a step further by identifying when short-term momentum is shifting in relation to the long-term trend. This makes it a valuable tool for traders looking to enter or exit positions at optimal points.
1. Why is MACD important in trading?
Trend Confirmation: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Momentum Strength: Measures how strong a price movement is.
Reversal Signals: Detects potential changes in trend direction.
Entry and Exit Points: Helps traders determine when to buy and sell.
2. MACD Components
The MACD Line: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend.
This line is derived by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.
When the MACD Line is positive, it indicates bullish momentum; when negative, it suggests bearish momentum.
The Signal Line: Measures how strong a price movement is.
A 9-period EMA of the MACD Line.
It smooths out MACD fluctuations, making it easier to identify crossovers.
The Histogram: Detects potential changes in trend direction.
The difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line.
A positive histogram suggests increasing bullish momentum, while a negative histogram suggests growing bearish momentum.
3. MACD Formula
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. It helps traders identify trends, momentum shifts, and potential buy or sell opportunities by analyzing the relationship between two moving averages.
By calculating the difference between a short-term and long-term exponential moving average (EMA), MACD provides insight into market direction and strength.
//@version=6
indicator("MACD Indicator", overlay=false)
// MACD parameters
shortLength = 12
longLength = 26
signalLength = 9
// Calculate MACD
macdLine = ta.ema(close, shortLength) - ta.ema(close, longLength)
signalLine = ta.ema(macdLine, signalLength)
histogram = macdLine - signalLine
// Plot MACD components
plot(macdLine, color=color.blue, title="MACD Line")
plot(signalLine, color=color.red, title="Signal Line")
plot(histogram, color=color.green, style=plot.style_columns, title="Histogram")
Explanation:
Short EMA (12-period) and Long EMA (26-period) are calculated.
The MACD Line is the difference between these EMAs.
A Signal Line (9-period EMA of MACD Line) is calculated.
The Histogram represents the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line.
4. Interpreting MACD signals
MACD Crossovers
A crossover occurs when the MACD Line and Signal Line intersect:
Bullish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line, it signals a potential uptrend and a buying opportunity.
Bearish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line, it suggests a potential downtrend and a selling opportunity.
MACD Divergences
Divergences occur when MACD moves in the opposite direction of the price, signaling a potential reversal:
Bullish Divergence: If price makes lower lows, but MACD makes higher lows, it suggests weakening downward momentum and a possible bullish reversal.
Bearish Divergence: If price makes higher highs, but MACD makes lower highs, it signals weakening upward momentum and a potential bearish reversal.
Histogram Interpretation
The MACD histogram visually represents momentum shifts:
When bars are increasing in height, momentum is strengthening.
When bars shrink, it suggests momentum is weakening.
Zero Line Crossings
The MACD crossing the zero line indicates momentum shifts:
MACD crossing above zero → Bullish trend initiation.
MACD crossing below zero → Bearish trend initiation.
5. Trend & Momentum Analysis
Traders use MACD to confirm trends and analyze market momentum:
If MACD Line is above the Signal Line, an uptrend is in place.
If MACD Line is below the Signal Line, a downtrend is dominant.
A widening histogram confirms strong momentum in the trend’s direction.
A narrowing histogram warns of potential trend weakening.
MACD works best in trending markets and should be used cautiously in sideways markets.
6. MACD Based Trading Strategies
Entry Strategies
Buy when MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line in an uptrend.
Sell when MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line in a downtrend.
Exit Strategies
Exit long trades when a bearish crossover occurs.
Close short positions when a bullish crossover occurs.
Position Management
If the histogram is expanding, traders can hold positions.
If the histogram is contracting, it may signal weakening momentum.
7. Limitations of MACD
While MACD is a powerful tool, traders must consider:
It lags behind price movements (since it is based on moving averages).
It can generate false signals in choppy markets.
Customization is required to suit different trading styles.
8. Optimization
Optimizing MACD for Different Market Conditions
Day Traders & Scalpers: Use faster settings like (5, 13, 6) for quick signals.
Swing Traders: Stick with the default (12, 26, 9) setting for balanced signals.
Long-Term Investors: Use slower settings like (24, 52, 18) for a broader market perspective.
9. Key Takeaways
MACD is a momentum and trend-following indicator that helps traders identify market direction, strength, and potential reversals.
Since MACD is a lagging indicator, it may generate false signals, especially in sideways markets.
Combining MACD with RSI, moving averages, and volume indicators improves accuracy and reduces risk.
MACD should be used alongside risk management strategies and other confirmation tools for best results.
MACD remains one of the most effective technical indicators, widely used across different markets. It helps traders identify trends, confirm momentum, and optimize trade entries and exits. However, it should always be used with additional tools to minimize false signals.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
Nasdaq - This Is Still Not The End Yet!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) cannot resist bearish pressure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past three months, we saw such a harsh correction on the Nasdaq that a lot of people are freaking out entirely. However technicals already told us that something feels wrong and this is the result. If we see another -10% from here, buying the dip will most likely pay off.
Levels to watch: $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
HelenP. I Gold will correct to trend line and continue to riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Earlier, the price was moving inside a consolidation range between 2955 and 2880 points. It tested the support zone multiple times, specifically the area between 2865 and 2880, before making a strong bullish reversal. After bouncing from Support 2 at the 2880 level, Gold began a confident upward movement. It broke through the resistance zone and exited the consolidation pattern, forming a clear uptrend and respecting the trend line throughout the rise. As the price climbed, it reached Support 1 at the 3055 level and paused briefly, consolidating near the support zone between 3055 and 3070. This zone held well, acting as a base for further growth. From there, the price made another upward impulse, reaching the 3125 area before pulling back slightly for a local correction. Currently, Gold is trading above the trend line and remains within a bullish structure. The recent reaction from the support zone confirms buyer strength and interest in higher levels. Given the previous impulse, the trend line support, and price action above key zones, I expect XAUUSD to continue rising toward the 3180 points, my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Gold new ATH at 3,168: A Final Push Before the Drop?Yesterday was a high-volatility day, and we all know why.
Gold surged to yet another all-time high at 3,168, and luckily, I had already closed my sell trade around break-even—otherwise, my stop loss would have been triggered.
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Gold Still Set for a Hard Drop?
Despite the rally, my outlook remains unchanged—I still believe Gold is due for a significant correction.
📉 3,100 Held as Support – But buyers are struggling to hold onto gains around 3150
📉 Every New High is a Selling Opportunity – So far, Gold has failed to sustain its breakouts, reinforcing a potential distribution phase.
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Trading Plan: Selling the Rallies
🔻 Target: At least 3,080
🔻 Preferred Strategy: Continue selling into rallies
For now, I remain bearish and will keep looking for opportunities to short the market. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Bitcoin: 120 In April, Part 2The market already bottomed.
The stage is set for the biggest bull-market in the history of Cryptocurrency.
The year is 2025. The bull-market starts in 2025 and can easily go beyond this year into early 2026.
Good things are about to happen.
Prepare for profits (change).
How are you feeling today my friend in this wonderful day?
Bitcoin bottomed and this is great.
Consolidation is something good that we can all appreciate. A time to rest, study, work and prepare for all the positive that we are about to experience. The market is good.
The market never moves in one single direction for too long. The market alternates and after a very strong wave, it gives us rest to prepare for what comes next. The rest period is reaching its end.
Bitcoin bottomed 28-February 2025.
A lower low and technical double-bottom happened 11-March 2025.
This is as good as it get.
Current market conditions allow for buying focused on the long-term.
This situation we are seeing now is amazing.
Traders, investors and the like can decide to buy spot and hold strong.
Leveraged traders can easily buy and hold up to 10X. Less than 8X is an easy entry with relatively low risk. Anything higher can be considered gambling.
At this point, loans can be taken out and the money goes into Crypto.
When a loan pays 6% yearly, or 20% if you live in a country like mine, Crypto will pay 600% in the same amount of time.
Getting a loan to buy Cryptocurrencies is not the best idea ever but it can be approached and benefit from by sound thinking and smart people. There are other ways to grow.
The market will go wild and will grow really strong.
While leverage can be used on the big projects, like Bitcoin, XRP and Cardano, Ethereum as well, smaller projects can offer the same growth potential but without the risk of a leveraged trade. That is, Bitcoin can grow 100% within 3-4 months. An Altcoin can grow 1,000% within 5 months and so on. Just some ideas.
Getting into the market can also happen gradually. Buy-in, buy into, accumulate with each check. Use the extra money to buy, buy and hold.
Fiat savings go into Crypto. The only way you are not into Crypto with fiat is if you are as old as Warren Buffet, that's the only reason not to buy Crypto, being too old. If you are less than 100 years of age, dive into Crypto because Crypto is the future of money and is here to stay.
We are gearing up for something great.
It is hard to put into words and it is impossible to transmit the actual feeling and experience through an article; everything will grow.
Remember late 2024?
What was the experience like?
Let's recap:
The market bottomed in August 2024 and went sideways for three months.
Then, in a matter of weeks, everything started to grow. Not everything but still, enough for us to profit and enjoy. The growth phase lasted as little as 1 full month. The consolidation period lasted on average 3 months. This time it will be different.
Consolidation (waiting time and the opportunity to buy low) has less than 1 month left.
The growth phase will last between 3-6 months. With a strong shakeout in-between but this is 3 to 6 times more than late 2024. So this is great.
If you knew in advance what was going to happen in late 2024, you know you could have made great profits and did great.
You know now what is about to happen, so why not take action now and do the same.
Now you can profit big time. No need to hold after the end of the bullish wave.
When prices are low it is the time to buy.
When prices are high it is the time to sell.
There are no missed opportunities. There is no need to hold for too long.
Yes, you can hold and will hold but only a portion, you have to sell when prices are up.
This time I will get it right.
I am buying NOW.
I am going LONG now.
I will sell when everything is up.
But what if it keeps on growing?
Be grateful for the profits when they come.
If everything keeps on growing, buy the pairs that are lower and enjoy those.
You need some targets and you need to take action. You are trading to take money home.
First you put money in and then you take it out.
What you take out will be many times more than what you initially bought.
Long long-term.
Buy weekly, monthly for 3-5 years and that's it.
You can use your portfolio as a savings account and withdraw when you feel like it or have a need.
You can go even longer, 10 years with no action other than to invest.
Once you feel ready, buy your mansion and enjoy the rich life.
Cryptocurrency is here to stay.
Cryptocurrency was developed to change the world. From a few entities controlling the money supply of the world, to everybody having access to wealth, success and growth.
You can make your own money now.
The 2025 bull-market is about to start.
Bitcoin is going up!
PS. We will consider a minimum of ~180,000 as the next All-Time High, with 200,000 and 220,000 being possible and ok. Anything lower or predicted earlier is now nullified. The sideways period has been long and strong. Bitcoin is definitely going to blow up. From November 2024 until now we have almost 5 months. That's enough to more than double prices-up, but the consolidation is not yet over. We have some time left. The Altcoins will move first. In the sense that they can produce stronger swings when they breakout.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
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