IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/08]: IO Prices Extend UptrendSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 1.30/ton higher by 21/Feb (Fri).
SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.95/ton on 17/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.25/ton on 21/Feb (Fri).
Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.30/ton on 21/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 104.20/ton on 17/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.10/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week.
Prices crossed the pivot point of USD 106.85/ton and R1 point of USD 108.10/ton during the week, closing between the R1 point and the pivot point at USD 107.25/ton.
Volume peaked on 20/Feb (Thu) as investor sentiment improved amid signs of recovery in China’s property sector.
Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary
Prices climbed to their highest levels in more than four months as steel consumption recovery signs brightened demand outlook in top consumer China, where stimulus hopes have revived.
Prices also surged as supply tightened after an Australian cyclone Zelia likely disrupted seven million tons of shipments.
BHP and Rio Tinto reported weaker earnings due to falling iron ore prices but emphasized their strong position in the energy transition, particularly through copper assets. While the recent price rally provides temporary relief for major miners like Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, and Vale, they face significant short- and long-term risks.
China's port IO stockpiles dropped by 0.78 million tons (-0.52%) WoW to 149.18 million tons for the week ending 21/Feb as per MMI data.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 16.33% below its last 5-year average (USD 129.66/ton).
Short-Term MA Sustains Bullishness amid Strong Industrial Outlook
Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) triggered a rally in iron ore with prices rising 5.2% over three weeks before losing steam on 14/Feb. Following tentative signs of China's property sector recovery, iron ore prices regained upward momentum this week.
Prices Trend Upwards Amid Potential Long-term Moving Average Convergence
IO prices are trading well above 100-day & 200-day DMAs. The narrowing gap between the long-term moving averages suggests a high possibility of convergence which could further confirm the uptrend. Will prices revert towards longer-term averages or sustain their upward trajectory?
MACD Signals Weakening Bullish Momentum, RSI Cross Portends Bears Ahead
The MACD line is near the signal line suggesting weakening momentum of the bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 57.59, at neutral levels as it hovers around the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 59.65. RSI MA forming a death-cross portends bearishness ahead.
Volatility Steady & IO Prices Closed Below 61.8% Fibonacci Level Amid Uptrend
Volatility remained steady this week. Prices traded between the 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) and the 50% level (USD 105.40/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.40/ton) as support.
Buying Pressure Softened & IO Prices Trade Below Upper Bollinger Band Levels
Buying pressure softened during second half of last week based on A/D indicator. IO prices climbed from the basis band to the upper band during the week and closed within the range at USD 107.25.
China’s Two Sessions: A Key Catalyst for Iron Ore Market Swings?
China's Two Sessions (Lianghui) is an annual political gathering in China where key economic and industrial policies are set. This can significantly impact China linked assets including iron ore. Over the past four years (2021-2024), prices have shown a pattern of pre-meeting speculation-driven gains, followed by declines due to policy interventions or cautious economic targets. While 2021 and 2022 saw initial optimism fueling price spikes before corrections, 2023 and 2024 featured steady declines amid weak demand and rising inventories. This trend underscores China's policy direction as a key driver of iron ore market fluctuations.
Source: SGX
IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 101.6k lots and 81.4k across all futures expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 142.7k and 40.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,101,024 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 984,935 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 102.3k lots and 90.9k across all futures and options expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 145.8k and 47.4k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,370,376 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 1,234,295 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants
Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the past month. Managed Money participants have switched from net short to being net long in the last two weeks. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of last year.
Source: SGX
Hypothetical Trade Setup
IO prices surged to a four-month high, driven by a brighter China steel demand outlook amid renewed stimulus hopes. This mirrors past trends where economic support hopes drove pre-session gains in 2021 & 2022. Current rally signals renewed optimism of stronger policy support from Two Sessions.
IO prices sustained uptrend last week save a pull back on Friday T+1 session. The MACD signals weakening bullishness while the RSI MA formed a death-cross portending bearishness ahead. IO prices rose from above 50% Fibonacci levels to close marginally below 61.8% levels indicating signaling bullishness.
Against this backdrop, this paper posits a long position in SGX Iron Ore Futures expiring on 28th March 2025 (FEFH2025) with an entry at USD 106.20/ton combined with a take profit level at USD 111.60/ton and a stop-loss at USD 101.70/ton resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x.
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USD/CHF | Channel breakdown bullish Retest of high chance Easy?📉 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish Breakdown & High-Probability Trade Setup 📉
The USD/CHF bullish channel has officially broken down, confirming a strong bearish momentum This breakdown signals a shift in market structure with price action moving into a major selling zone
With a fair value gap (FVG) and key retest levels traders should focus on ideal short entries within a critical price range before further downside continuation
🔥 Key Trading Levels & Setup:
📌 Retest Entry Zone: 0.9050 - 0.9100
🎯 Target Points:
✅ 1st Target: 0.8900
✅ 2nd Target: 0.8830
✅ 3rd Target: 0.8750
📊 Technical Confirmation:
🔹 EMA 50 → Confirms a bearish trend shift acting as dynamic resistance
🔹 Channel Breakdown → Indicates strong selling pressure from institutional traders
🔹 Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Retest Levels → Possible pullbacks before the next drop
🔹 Lower Highs & Lower Lows → Classic market structure for a downtrend
🚀 Trading Strategy:
1️⃣ Wait for a retest within the 0.9050 - 0.9100 zone to confirm market rejection.
2️⃣ Look for bearish candlestick formations (e.g bearish engulfing, shooting star).
3️⃣ Enter a short position with a controlled stop loss above the retest zone.
4️⃣ Follow risk management – maintain a strong risk-reward ratio.
5️⃣ Target the downside levels step by step while adjusting stop-loss for profit protection.
🔴 Risk Management is Key: Always set stop losses and avoid over-leveraging.
📢 Follow the Rules & Trade Smart!
🔔 Like Comment & Follow for real-time market insights expert trade setups, and profitable trading strategies! Let’s trade smart and stay ahead of the market!
Potential bullish rebound?EUR/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: `155.94
1st Support: 153.99
1st Resistance: 158.57
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/JPY is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 190.68
1st Support: 187.74
1st Resistance: 193.06
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
#RLC/USDT#RLC
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it upwards strongly and retest it
We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 1.13
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, which supports the rise
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100
Entry price 1.15
First target 1.17
Second target 1.20
Third target 1.25
Bitcoin's Balancing Act: Consolidation, Theft, and Market ForcesBitcoin continues to consolidate in the 90k - 106k area! Recently there was an act of theft from the ByBit cold wallet, resulting in over $1.5 billion worth of ETH being stolen. This is definitely a negative backdrop, we have seen good support from other exchanges and crypto project funders. Theoretically, it would be possible to roll the chain back as Arthur Hayes suggested, but it doesn't seem to be possible, although it would definitely play in favor of the bulls. I would expect a drop to the $91800 area for several reasons:
1. Bear dominance. This can be seen in the bullish and bearish volume indicator. Bullish volumes have fallen while strong sales volume growth is noticeable.
2. Elliott Wave Correction
3. BlackRock sold 3,283 BTC before the ByBit hack and has yet to buy more.
4. According to the smart money concept, 92400-91200 is a magnet.
5. Need to liquidate a large number of long positions that gained momentum after leaving the 99k level.
Horban Brothers.
[Short] BTC H&SHi,
Five years ago, I studied BTC and the cryptocurrency market. I made a lot of money and continue to profit, but this is a world of possibilities. Maybe it's obvious, but that's just how it is. It can go up—yes, it can go down—but the important thing is that any movement is possible. If you think it will probably go down, I feel like it's over.
Now I believe that a head and shoulders pattern has formed. The chances are high that the upward movement is losing strength, so I think the next move will be an 80K retest to trigger long liquidations, gain energy, and then move up again (with higher probability due to bullish sentiment). However, I'm not ruling out further tests at lower prices.
BTC Cycles & TA: 2/24/25 Charts are pointing to a relief rally here, but the overall health of the charts remains bearish and negative. Charts remain with a negative outlook... BUT there is one final chance... otherwise expect a crash in March or April.. I believe the charts are saying March, but cycles point to March and spilling over to April...
THE short down to $0.4950I opened a short a while ago on THE. Been monitoring it since last night in anticipation of a bigger correction but seems the supply is relatively strong and it might just dump off from here towards $0.4950 area
Hence why I took a position.
Ideally I would have liked for it to correct all the way ack up to $0.596 area but we'll see. If I get stopped out that might be where next entry will come in.
xauusd: Continue to sell@2950-2960Gold fell again today and then rose to the key resistance area of 2950. The strategy continues to try to short
Gold trading strategy today:
xauusd sell@2950-2960
tp:2935-2920-2910
Since February, our $60,000 account has steadily increased to $150,000, and all trading signals have been profitable. If you want to obtain accurate signals at the first moment, you can click on the link below the article to get them!
XAUUSD H1 [24.02.25]: Technical Overview!📈 BUY_GOLD: 2933/2935
Stoploss: 2930 / Target: 2955
📉 SELL_GOLD: 2957/2959
Stoploss: 2962 / Target: 2947
Analysis: Gold has found support at the 50-4H SMA (2920) multiple times and needs a sustained move above the 21-4H SMA (2935) to extend its rally.
The RSI, near 60, suggests further upside potential.
A decisive break above 2935 could lead to a retest of the 2955 high, with 2970 as the next resistance.
BURGERUSDT Falling Wedge Breakout – 120%-130% Gains BURGERUSDT has recently completed a breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern, and it has already retested the breakout level successfully. A Falling Wedge breakout often signals a shift from a downtrend to a potential uptrend, and this retest confirms that the breakout level is now acting as a strong support. With the price stabilizing and holding above this key support level, BURGERUSDT is set to continue its bullish move. The projected gains from this point are significant, with an estimated range of 120% to 130%+, as the market looks ready to resume its upward momentum.
The volume accompanying this breakout is a key indicator of the strength behind the move. Good volume during the breakout and retest confirms that market participants are supporting this price action, and the move is not likely to be a false signal. With the retest successfully holding at support, BURGERUSDT has solidified its position for the next leg up. This suggests that the asset is primed for continued growth as it begins its upward trajectory, offering substantial gains to those who act at this critical point.
Investors have been showing increased interest in BURGERUSDT, recognizing the potential for growth after the breakout and retest. As more traders see the strength in the price action and volume, more buying pressure could be expected, further propelling the price higher. With the breakout behind it and strong investor confidence, BURGERUSDT is well-positioned for a rally toward its projected 120% to 130%+ target. The technicals are looking favorable, and the market sentiment appears to be positive.
Traders should keep an eye on BURGERUSDT as it consolidates above the retest level. Any signs of further bullish continuation could provide an opportunity to enter before the price moves higher. With the technical setup and market dynamics aligning, BURGERUSDT represents an exciting opportunity for those looking to capture high returns in the next phase of its rally.
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Broccoli dump below $0.03945Just opened on a short on Broccoli a memecoin for cz dog . Seems the holders been selling.
I don't blame them lol, everything is dumping why hold a memecoin? It might very well be one of the top memecoin when the bullrun resume but as of now its not showing signs of bottom.
I expect the bears to sell straight to the lows. and I might scale in along the way to improve the RR a bit given all goes well.
Potential 50% tp at $0.04410. I'll set the tp before bed if it doesn't hit . But while awake I'll monitor. Maybe it just flush straight to $0.03945
PAEL | Flag PatternThe stock displays a bullish flag pattern on strong volume, trading confidently above both the 20 and 200-day EMAs, suggesting robust upward momentum. Previous session shows a break out of the flag and price closed +3% above it. Initial resistance lies around 46 which is the formation of double top pattern from where short term rejection can be seen. However, a decisive break above the resistance level will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend and flag projection lies around 55.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trade Setup – Potential Long Opportunity ChartChart Overview:
A possible bullish retracement setup. The price has recently experienced a sharp decline, but a recovery is forming, suggesting a potential buying opportunity.
Key Trading Zones:
🔹 Entry Zones:
1st Entry: Around 95,790 USD, where the price is currently consolidating.
2nd Entry: Near 97,150 USD, an intermediate resistance level.
3rd Entry: Close to 97,678 - 98,205 USD, marking a stronger resistance area.
🔹 Stop Loss:
Placed above 99,000 USD to protect against further upside risk.
Trade Plan:
📌 Entry Strategy:
Buyers may step in near the current support zone (~95,790 USD) for a potential upside move.
If the price breaks above the 97,150 USD level, a further rally toward 98,205 USD could occur.
📌 Target Levels:
A possible short-term bullish retracement toward the entry zones (97,150 - 98,205 USD) before deciding further direction.
📌 Stop Loss Strategy:
If price moves above 99,000 USD, it invalidates the short-term bearish scenario.
Market Structure Analysis:
✅ Previous Strong Drop: Indicates sellers' control, but a retracement is expected.
✅ Potential Retracement Levels: Buyers may attempt to push BTC back into the entry zones.
✅ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The trade setup suggests a favorable risk-reward balance if price follows the expected path.
Final Thoughts:
Watch for confirmation of a bullish retracement before entering.
A break below 95,000 USD could invalidate the setup.
Manage risk properly and adjust stop losses accordingly.
📈 Trade carefully and monitor market conditions! 🚀
AMD Analysis: Shorting to $100 as Cup & Handle Pattern FormsHello Traders,
I'm sharing a weekly chart analysis for AMD, where I’ve identified a Cup & Handle pattern. The current price is $148, and it's retesting the broken red trend line.
I suggest considering a short position targeting $100. I've also included a back test for the two previous patterns, which support the validity of the middle red trend line.
It's important to note that if AMD reaches the $100 level, the Cup & Handle pattern above the blue trend line will become valid, potentially targeting even lower levels around $55, or possibly further down.
Additionally, pay attention to the downtrend progression channel in cyan. The current price of $148 is positioned around the resistance of this channel's middle line.
If these scenarios play out, a harmonic pattern may also form, which I will define at a later stage.
Stay cautious and manage your risk!
Gold Analysis May 25⭐️Fundamental Analysis
Market sentiment remained cautious on Tuesday due to concerns over Trump tariffs and Nvidia's upcoming earnings report. The US dollar continued to hold its strength on risk-off sentiment, limiting gold's gains. However, gold prices remained supported by falling US Treasury yields and rising trade war risks.
Bond yields fell on a strong auction and weak PMI data, raising expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. Meanwhile, trade tensions escalated as the Trump administration considered tightening controls on chip exports to China.
⭐️Technical Analysis
Gold prices are still operating in a wedge of 2928 and 2952. The 2958 zone is also quite easy to create a false ATH. 2968-2970 acts as the most important resistance for Gold at the moment, which is considered the weekly resistance level. Watch out for gold falling, there could be a deep drop to 2906-2900.