Germany is destined for upside to 20,893 according to thisWe have seen a textbook Falling Wedge form on the Daily with the Dax.
It seems like there has been a consolidation (range bounded) move before the next direction.
So looking at the indicators and sentiment of the markets, in the medium term it looks like DAX is destined for upside.
Along with the main markets like S&P500 and Crypto.
We just need the price to break above 20MA and we could see the next target at 20,893
WHat do you think?
Community ideas
MFFL - PSX - Long (Buy) Trade Call Seasonal timelines have been drawn on the chart. MFFL stocks have been seen historically going up in the month of October till first week of December i.e. for average 1.5 months and then going down. This happens because of the citrus export and selling locally as well. While from March till Aug it mostly relies on selling finished food products like jams.
Technically Fib retracement has already reached 0.89 level; besides bullish divergence has started to form on 4h TF. Price is about to reach a very strong support zone as well.
Therefore, it is strongly recommended to initiate instant buy at current market price and if it dips further to first support level then buy again. And if it falls even till the middle of support zone then buy third time as well.
Trade values are depicted below.
Buy Trade Call
Buy 1: 132.00
Buy 2: 129.50
Buy 3: 124.50
TP1 : 168
TP2 : 200
TP3: 250
SL: 115
AU Index Rallies from Demand Area as Bullish Sentiment GrowsThe AU Index experienced a significant development yesterday as it reached a key demand area, showing a strong rejection today that indicates potential bullish momentum. This demand zone, identified through technical analysis, has historically served as a pivotal point for price action, suggesting an opportunity for a price turnaround. With the opening candle reflecting a robust rejection of lower levels, traders are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a bullish trend emerging in the coming months.
From a technical standpoint, this demand area presents a solid foundation for potential upward movement. The absence of follow-through selling and the strength of the rejection signal that buyers are stepping in to support the price. When coupled with historical seasonality patterns, which indicate a likelihood of gains during this period, there is a compelling case for a bullish outlook on the AU Index. Historical trends suggest that this time frame has often led to price rallies, providing further confirmation for those considering long positions.
On the fundamental side, the insights from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report paint an interesting picture. While retail traders are predominantly bearish, indicating a cautious sentiment among the broader market participants, the smart money narrative tells a different story. Institutional investors appear to be either bullish or in the early stages of building long positions, which can be a telling signal for future price action. This divergence between retail bearishness and institutional buying often creates an environment ripe for a market reversal, particularly as the smart money tends to lead rather than follow market trends.
Given these dynamics, traders are now on the lookout for a long setup on the AU Index. Emphasizing risk management and entry strategies will be essential in this endeavor. With the price showing resilience at the demand area and fundamental signals suggesting a shift towards bullishness, there is a growing confidence that the AU Index may be poised for a sustained rally.
In conclusion, the confluence of technical indicators, seasonal patterns, and the contrasting sentiments present in the COT report presents an enticing opportunity in the AU Index. As traders position themselves for potential gains, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this demand area will indeed act as a launchpad for a bullish trend in the months ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring price movements, looking for confirmation to validate their long strategies in what could be an exciting period for this index.
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Bitcoin (BTC): New Day New ATH / Uncertainty on MarketsBitcoin has formed another ATH price where we slowly have moved to further upper zones.
Now, to be honest, at this point we are seeing a lot of uncertainty in the markets, where price are now just hovering near ATH zone (both buyers and sellers are waiting and not attempting anything).
In those times it is perfect to have a liquidity hunt (as historically this can be said) and as we all know, we have a lot of liquidity lying around on lower zones.
This said, our gameplan is simple and still remains the same, We wait 😉
Swallow Team
BTCUSDT 15 min - BEAR & BULL Strategies - 2 stepBTCUSDT 15 min - BEAR & BULL Strategies - 2 step
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BTCUSDT 15 min - BEAR & BULL Strategies - 2 step
We continue with our bullish channel and triangle strategy.
BTCUSDT is marking increasingly higher lows and is approaching the base of the current bullish channel that acts as dynamic support.
That said, we must set a strategy that allows us to properly manage the risk-reward equation.
We don't really know what the price will do, but we must be prepared for different scenarios.
If we already have it in our portfolio,
SL: 75500
TP: 79000
If we want to position ourselves BULLISH
BULLISH STRATEGY LEVELS:
BUY: 75500 or 76400
TP 79K
SL: 74700 below the EMA 200
BEAR STRATEGY LEVELS:
SL: 76400
SELL: 75000
If it breaks the dynamic support and gives signs of a change in trend.
In the area of uncertainty, we will continue to swing :)
We just have to wait for the triangulation to break in one direction or another.
Good luck in making decisions.
______________________________________________________
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I share with you my technical analysis assessments on certain values that I follow as part of the strategies I design for my portfolio, but I do not recommend anyone to operate based on these indicators. Inform yourself, educate yourself and build your own strategies when investing. I only hope that my comments help you on your own path :)
XAU/USD 08 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price has reacted from premium of 50% established internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to weak internal low priced at 2,643.355
Note: Due to the Fed’s softer stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we should remain mindful that volatility in Gold is likely to persist.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis: Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase.
Intraday Expectation: Technically, price is expected to react from either the discount of 50% internal equilibrium level (EQ) or the M15 demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Alternative Scenario: Given that the H4 timeframe is in a bullish pullback phase, it's no surprise that the M15 chart has printed a bullish iBOS. However, with H4 price trading up to premium of 50% internal EQ and reacting from that premium zone, it wouldn’t be surprising if the price prints a bearish iBOS.
Note: With the Fed's softer policy stance and escalating geopolitical tensions, elevated price volatility is likely to persist.
M15 Chart:
**AUD/CAD Short Setup: Targeting 0.91310**🔻 **AUD/CAD Short Setup: Targeting 0.91310** 📉
We’re setting up a short position for AUD/CAD, aiming to move from **0.92019** down to **0.91310**. This setup is based on key resistance levels, with a stop loss placed at **0.92207** for risk management.
🔍 **Trade Details:**
- **Entry:** 0.92019
- **Target:** 0.91310
- **Stop Loss:** 0.92207
💡 **Our Insight:** A break below current support could see AUD/CAD making a move down to our target. We’re watching for confirmation on the next 4H candle close.
👉 Are you taking a similar position? Share your insights below!
#AUDCAD #ForexTrading #ShortPosition #TradeSetup #Pipnest
GOLD Correction Upward#trading_idea 🔔
👑#Gold- Correction Upwards!
💰 The upward correction continues. An ABCD pattern is visible, and the Momentum indicator suggests potential bullish strength in gold.
Suggestion:
🔼Buy.
🎯 TP at 2700
🔴 Click "👍" if you think the price will rise and "👎" if you think it will fall.
➡️➡️ TRY SABIOTRADE NOW
Trade 6: GBP/USD - 3.9 RR Ratio Longer Time Frame: 1D
1. Bullish Engulfing candle in a day
Shorter Time Frame: 15min
1. Flag and pole formation almost for 3 phases
2. Price took resistance at "1"
3. Price crossed below the shorter and medium HMA
4. Retraced back to between 0.382 and 0
Bias: Short
1. Expecting a pullback
2. Price crossed below HMAs in 15m and 30m
Entry:
First EMA cross under when the Shorter HMA crossed under Medium HMA or First EMA cross under when the price crossed HMAs and is taking resistance of HMAs
Target:
1. Next Support between 1.29472 and 1.29360
2. The range falls between 0.382
3. Therefore, 0.382 is the target
SL:
Above the EMA cross under 5/15min timeframe
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid !!USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fundamental Shifts 08/11/2024
Introduction
In today's analysis of USDJPY, the pair appears to carry a slight bearish bias, driven by significant macroeconomic factors. These include recent economic data from Japan, U.S. dollar movements, and evolving global risk sentiment. In this article, we’ll explore the critical factors affecting USDJPY today, helping you stay ahead in your trading decisions.
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Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today
1. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Stance
The Bank of Japan has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, but recent statements hint at a gradual shift if inflation stabilizes around target levels. Markets are speculating on potential policy adjustments, increasing support for the Japanese yen (JPY). Any tightening signals from the BoJ would strengthen the JPY, adding bearish pressure to USDJPY.
2. U.S. Federal Reserve’s Caution on Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve’s recent statements show a cautious stance on further interest rate hikes due to mixed economic data and inflation uncertainties. This dovish outlook has weakened the U.S. dollar (USD) across major currency pairs. A softer USD supports a bearish bias for USDJPY, especially as U.S. bond yields decline, making the JPY more appealing.
3. Global Risk Sentiment Impacting Safe-Haven Flows
The JPY is considered a safe-haven currency and often gains during periods of market uncertainty. With mixed global economic indicators and recent geopolitical tensions, investors may lean towards the JPY, contributing to USDJPY’s bearish potential.
4. Technical Factors Supporting a Bearish Bias
USDJPY recently tested key resistance levels and failed to break higher, adding to the bearish sentiment. The pair is also trading close to its 50-day moving average, a significant level that, if broken, could signal further downward movement.
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Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook
Moving Averages and RSI
USDJPY is hovering near its 50-day moving average, a critical support level. A sustained break below this line may confirm a bearish trend. Additionally, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing early signs of downward momentum, signaling potential selling pressure ahead.
MACD and Volume Analysis
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is showing bearish divergence, reinforcing the expectation of a bearish trend for USDJPY. Volume analysis also shows a decline in buying pressure, aligning with the anticipated downward movement.
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Conclusion
The combination of a cautious Fed, potential policy changes from the BoJ, and current risk sentiment suggests a slight bearish bias for USDJPY today. Traders should keep an eye on key technical levels and monitor any news impacting the USD and JPY for further confirmation.
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Selling opportunity for XAUUSDHey guys,
Based on the chart we can consider a bearish movement for XAUUSD because we consider a bearish trend line and also a bullish swing has been broken in 15 min timeframe which we consider this as a resistance level for this movement.
The risk reward ratio for this position is 1:3.
Good luck.
USDCHF - Dollar will continue to grow after FOMC?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The bottom of the ascending channel will be the target of this move.
The Federal Reserve recently reduced its interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%. The Fed’s statement indicates that the “labor market has cooled,” whereas the previous statement had only mentioned a “slower job market growth.” Additionally, there appears to be a slight decline in confidence regarding inflation reduction.
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, emphasized that he will remain in his role until the end of his term. When asked about fiscal policies, Powell stated that such matters are outside the Fed’s authority. He added that if the economy remains strong and inflation does not reach the 2% target, monetary policy adjustments may occur at a slower pace. He also highlighted that the policies of any administration or Congress could have significant economic impacts, but these effects will be evaluated alongside other factors.
The recent report on Switzerland’s consumer inflation index indicates that the global landscape has not changed significantly from the pre-COVID era. After the inflation shock of the COVID period, some banking officials speculated that the world was entering a new phase where zero or negative interest rates were unlikely, and the neutral rate would be higher. However, there is no strong evidence to support this claim, especially with the major transformations anticipated from the growth of artificial intelligence. Furthermore, many analysts believe that the risks associated with de-globalization and demographic arguments are not as compelling.
In September, the Swiss National Bank revised its inflation forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.6% and also adjusted the interest rate. The inflation forecast for this year was revised down from 1.3% to 1.2%. The next meeting of the Swiss National Bank is scheduled for December 12, and if current conditions persist (including energy prices and exchange rates), a 50-basis-point rate cut could become a strong option.
Deutsche Bank also sees an increasing likelihood of a return to negative interest rates, noting factors that could lead to higher risk and a stronger Swiss franc. These challenges are not exclusive to Switzerland; Europe as a whole is facing similar issues. Deutsche Bank has indicated that, currently, inflation in Europe does not pose a significant problem.
World gold price recovers despite high USDWorld gold prices recover despite the high USD. Recorded at 9:50 a.m. on November 8, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's fluctuations against six major currencies, was at 104.430 points (up 0.19%).
According to Kitco, central banks cutting interest rates, a wave of buying, and recently released US economic data... are supporting the recovery of gold prices.
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve (FED) continued to cut interest rates. This was a move that many people had predicted and long expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. Interest rates are currently trading in a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.
The FED did not provide much guidance on the future path of monetary policy. They noted that the economy continued to grow at a solid pace.
Not only the FED, the Bank of England (BoE) has also just decided to cut interest rates further. In a long-awaited move, the BoE cut the bank rate to 4.75% on Thursday.
In addition, gold prices rebounded sharply after the release of US labor market data. Mr. Ernest Hoffman - market analyst at Kitco News - said that the US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that initial jobless claims increased to 221,000 in the week ended November 2. This figure was completely in line with expectations, as the general estimate forecast the number of claims was 221,000.
🔥 GOLD BUY 2683 - 2681🔥
✅TP1: 2690
✅TP2: 2700
✅TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2675
GBPUSD: Potential Reversal at Key ResistanceGBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2966, with an upward trendline providing support. The chart shows a potential approach towards the resistance zone around 1.3043 (highlighted in red), which could act as a barrier for further upside.
If GBPUSD reaches this resistance and fails to break above it, a downward reversal is possible, with a likely target back towards the lower support levels around 1.2950. The green zone around 1.3000 also represents a critical area where a decision point could form—either confirming a continuation upwards or signaling a shift in momentum towards the downside.
Falling towards overlap support?GBP/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2940
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.29065
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.2999
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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XAUUSD - 2024/11/08Looks like XAUUSD has already made the move that I was waiting for during Asian session.
I will monitor the market to look for a potential retrace back into the 1h volume sell zone to take more shorts, but at the moment if the market does reverse back to entry I would be skeptical to enter because the market can easily just continue the bull run.
Even though we had a strong push down with the US elections, XAUUUSD is still in a bullish market and needs to be taken into account when looking for shorts.