Bitcoin ConsolidatesBitcoin is currently consolidating just below a clear descending trendline, showing a series of lower highs since its recent local top near $112,000. Price is hovering around $106,300, holding just above key horizontal support at ~$105,800. This level coincides with the 50-day moving average (blue), which is currently acting as dynamic support.
So far, Bitcoin has respected the ~$100,700 level as major support after the mid-June shakeout. As long as price remains above that zone and holds the 50 MA, the bullish structure remains intact despite the short-term lower highs. But the more price compresses beneath the descending resistance, the more likely we see a breakout (or breakdown) soon.
The 200-day moving average (red) is well below current price action, hovering near $95,000. That’s a long way down and would likely only be tested if broader market conditions deteriorate significantly.
Volume is tapering, suggesting traders are waiting for a decisive move. A break above the descending trendline and reclaim of $110,000+ would invalidate the current short-term downtrend and likely bring $112,000 and new highs into view. A loss of $105,800, on the other hand, puts $100,700 back in play – and below that, things could get ugly quickly.
For now, the trend is neutral within a broader uptrend. The bulls are holding the line – but just barely
Community ideas
XRP - calm before the stormWe've got our bullish reversal sitting at the Golden Ratio price of $2.20. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks today with many speculating that this will be the meeting that sends the markets soaring.
With over 17 ETFs, SWIFT update, Banks offering crypto services, BIS, XRPL EVM side chain, and many more catalyst. This could be the beginning to the largest bull run witnessed in our lifetime.
Have profits targets, an exit strategy, and plan for long-term reinvestments that will continue to make you money.
LOCK IN 🔐
AUDUSD Breakout ascending channel and consolidation breakout 1D 📊 AUD/USD Technical Breakdown – 1D Time Frame
The Aussie has officially broken out of both the ascending channel and the consolidation phase, signaling strong momentum ahead. 🚀
📍 Entry Level: 0.65800
🔁 Possible Retest Zone (Support): 0.64000
🎯 Technical Targets:
✅ 1st Target: 0.66900 (Key Supply Zone)
✅ 2nd Target: 0.69000 (Major Resistance Level)
Market structure and price action suggest bullish continuation if the breakout holds. Always manage risk accordingly. 📈
---
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XAUUSD Bullish Trend breakdown and support on 3295XAUUSD Technical Breakdown
1H Time Frame Analysis by Livia 😜
Gold (XAU/USD) has officially broken down from the bullish trend, symmetrical triangle, and the key support zone at 3295.
A retracement is complete, and 3295 now acts as a fresh resistance level — setting up a clean entry point for sellers.
🎯 Bearish Technical Targets:
🔻 1st Support: 3260
🔻 2nd Support: 3240
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AUDUSD Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.658.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.663 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Is BigBear.ai the Next Titan of Defense AI?BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) is emerging as a significant player in the artificial intelligence landscape, particularly within the critical national security and defense sectors. While often compared to industry giant Palantir, BigBear.ai carves its niche by intensely focusing on modern warfare applications, including guiding unmanned vehicles and optimizing missions. The company has recently garnered considerable investor attention, evidenced by its impressive 287% rally over the past year and a notable surge in public interest. This enthusiasm stems from several key factors, including a substantial 2.5x increase in backlog orders to $385 million by March 2025 and a significant ramp-up in research and development spending, signaling robust foundational growth.
BigBear.ai's technological prowess underpins its rising profile. The company develops sophisticated AI and machine learning models for diverse applications, from facial recognition systems deployed at major international airports like JFK and LAX to AI-augmented shipbuilding software for the U.S. Navy. Its Pangiam® Threat Detection and Decision Support Platform enhances airport security by integrating with advanced CT scanner technology, while its ConductorOS platform facilitates secure communication and coordination for drone swarm operations under the U.S. Army's Project Linchpin. These cutting-edge solutions position BigBear.ai at the forefront of AI-driven advancements crucial for evolving geopolitical landscapes and increasing defense AI investments.
Strategic collaborations and a favorable market environment further fuel BigBear.ai's ascent. The company recently formed a significant partnership in the UAE with Easy Lease and Vigilix Technology Investment to accelerate AI adoption across key industries like mobility and logistics, marking a major step in its international expansion. Additionally, multiple contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, including those for J-35 fleet management and geopolitical risk assessment, underscore its vital role in government initiatives. While BigBear.ai faces challenges, including revenue stagnation, escalating losses, and stock volatility, its strategic market position, growing backlog, and continuous innovation in mission-critical AI solutions present a compelling high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity in the burgeoning defense AI sector.
Quantitative Trading Models in Forex: A Deep DiveQuantitative Trading Models in Forex: A Deep Dive
Quantitative trading in forex harnesses advanced algorithms and statistical models to decode market dynamics, offering traders a sophisticated approach to currency trading. This article delves into the various quantitative trading models, their implementation, and their challenges, providing insights for traders looking to navigate the forex market with a data-driven approach.
Understanding Quantitative Trading in Forex
Quantitative trading, also known as quant trading, in the forex market involves using sophisticated quantitative trading systems that leverage complex mathematical and statistical methods to analyse market data and execute trades. These systems are designed to identify patterns, trends, and potential opportunities in currency movements that might be invisible to the naked eye.
At the heart of these systems are quantitative trading strategies and models, which are algorithmic procedures developed to determine market behaviour and make informed decisions. These strategies incorporate a variety of approaches, from historical data analysis to predictive modelling, which should ensure a comprehensive assessment of market dynamics. Notably, in quantitative trading, Python and similar data-oriented programming languages are often used to build models.
In essence, quantitative systems help decipher the intricate relationships between different currency pairs, economic indicators, and global events, potentially enabling traders to execute trades with higher precision and efficiency.
Key Types of Quantitative Models
Quantitative trading, spanning diverse markets such as forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies*, utilises complex quantitative trading algorithms to make informed decisions. While it's prominently applied in quantitative stock trading, its principles and models are particularly significant in the forex market. These models are underpinned by quantitative analysis, derivative modelling, and trading strategies, which involve mathematical analysis of market movements and risk assessment to potentially optimise trading outcomes.
Trend Following Models
Trend-following systems are designed to identify and capitalise on market trends. Using historical price data, they may determine the direction and strength of market movements, helping traders to align themselves with the prevailing upward or downward trend. Indicators like the Average Directional Index or Parabolic SAR can assist in developing trend-following models.
Mean Reversion Models
Operating on the principle that prices eventually move back towards their mean or average, mean reversion systems look for overextended price movements in the forex market. Traders use mean reversion strategies to determine when a currency pair is likely to revert to its historical average.
High-Frequency Trading (HFT) Models
Involving the execution of a large number of orders at breakneck speeds, HFT models are used to capitalise on tiny price movements. They’re less about determining market direction and more about exploiting market inefficiencies at micro-level time frames.
Sentiment Analysis Models
These models analyse market sentiment data, such as news headlines, social media buzz, and economic reports, to gauge the market's mood. This information can be pivotal in defining short-term movements in the forex market, though this model is becoming increasingly popular for quantitative trading in crypto*.
Machine Learning Models
These systems continuously learn and adapt to new market data by incorporating AI and machine learning, identifying complex patterns and relationships that might elude traditional models. They are particularly adept at processing large volumes of data and making predictive analyses.
Hypothesis-Based Models
These models test specific hypotheses about market behaviour. For example, a theory might posit that certain economic indicators lead to predictable responses in currency markets. They’re then backtested and refined based on historical data to validate or refute the hypotheses.
Each model offers a unique lens through which forex traders can analyse the market, offering diverse approaches to tackle the complexities of currency trading.
Quantitative vs Algorithmic Trading
While quant and algorithmic trading are often used interchangeably and do overlap, there are notable differences between the two approaches.
Algorithmic Trading
Focus: Emphasises automating processes, often using technical indicators for decision-making.
Methodology: Relies on predefined rules based on historical data, often without the depth of quantitative analysis.
Execution: Prioritises automated execution of trades, often at high speed.
Application: Used widely for efficiency in executing repetitive, rule-based tasks.
Quantitative Trading
Focus: Utilises advanced mathematical and statistical models to determine market movements.
Methodology: Involves complex computations and data analysis and often incorporates economic theories.
Execution: May or may not automate trade execution; focuses on strategy formulation.
Application: Common in risk management and strategic trade planning.
Implementation and Challenges
Implementing quantitative models in forex begins with the development of a robust strategy involving the selection of appropriate models and algorithms. This phase includes rigorous backtesting against historical data to validate their effectiveness. Following this, traders often engage in forward testing in live market conditions to evaluate real-world performance.
Challenges in this realm are multifaceted. Key among them is the quality and relevance of the data used. Models can be rendered ineffective if based on inaccurate or outdated data. Overfitting remains a significant concern, where systems too closely tailored to historical data may fail to adapt to evolving market dynamics. Another challenge is the constant need to monitor and update models to keep pace with market changes, requiring a blend of technical expertise and market acumen.
The Bottom Line
In this deep dive into quantitative trading in forex, we've uncovered the potency of diverse models, each tailored to navigate the complex currency markets with precision. These strategies, rooted in data-driven analysis, may offer traders an edge in decision-making.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
June 30 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
This is Bitcoin Guide.
If you "follow"
You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections.
If my analysis was helpful,
Please click the booster button at the bottom.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There is no separate indicator announcement today.
The weekly and daily charts are being adjusted at the same time as they are created.
The strategy was carried out based on the Nasdaq pattern and the Tether dominance pattern.
The long position entry section on the 25th, $106,746, was connected as is.
*When the blue finger moves,
It is a two-way neutral
short->long switching or long waiting strategy.
1. $108,138.1 short position entry section / stop loss price when orange resistance line is broken
2. $107,507.9 long position switching / stop loss price when green support line is broken
3. $108,507.9 long position 1st target -> Good 2nd target price
You can also use the long position re-entry indicated in the middle.
If it comes down right away without touching the short entry section at the top,
it is a long waiting strategy at the gap section of 107,102.7 dollars,
and the stop loss price is the same.
And, if it succeeds in rebounding within the purple support line today,
the reason it is safe from a long position is
because the low point of the weekly and daily candles created this week is maintained without additional deviation.
Please note that the 1st section at the bottom is a sideways market / the 2nd section is open up to the bottom.
Please use my analysis article so far only for reference and use,
and I hope you operate safely with the principle trading and stop loss price.
Thank you.
Potential bearish drop?CAD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is also a pullback support..
Pivot: 105.84
1st Support: 104.33
1st resistance: 106.80
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/CHF Exchange Rate Falls to Multi-Year LowUSD/CHF Exchange Rate Falls to Multi-Year Low
According to the chart, the USD/CHF exchange rate has settled below the key psychological level of 0.8000. The rate hasn’t been this low since the financial crisis of 2008.
On one hand, the drop in USD/CHF is driven by weakness in the US dollar. The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, largely due to the conflicting trade policies pursued by the Trump administration. On the other hand, geopolitical instability has increased the appeal of the Swiss franc as a so-called safe-haven asset.
Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart
Since mid-May, price fluctuations have formed a downward channel (marked in red), and by the end of June the rate had stabilised around the psychological threshold of 0.8000 (indicated by an arrow) — right at the median of the channel.
However, this balance between supply and demand proved temporary, tipping in favour of sellers. As a result, we now see a decline in USD/CHF along a steep trajectory (marked in black), potentially targeting the lower boundary of the red channel — which suggests a possible move down to 0.7800 USD per franc. Along this path, support may come from the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (0.7875); note how the 0.8055 level previously acted as support (marked with a blue arrow).
The RSI indicator confirms strong selling pressure — but will the bearish trend continue?
Much will depend on the broader fundamental context. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the sharp strengthening of the franc against the dollar is causing growing concern at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), as an overly strong franc harms Swiss exporters. This suggests that the current market sentiment could shift dramatically if the SNB issues any relevant statements.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Below of last update of reverse head and shoulder post XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
🔸 **Instrument:** Gold / USD (XAU/USD)
🔸 **Timeframe:** 30min
🔸 **Methodology:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Liquidity + OB + Market Structure
🔸 **Focus:** New Monthly Open Setup
🔍 Market Context:
---
## 🧠 Technical Breakdown:
1. **Strong recovery** after clearing deep liquidity sweep (Head zone)
2. **Bullish BOS** structure confirmed on LTF → Multiple HH and HL formed
3. Price now testing **Key Supply/OB zone at 3300–3315**
4. Above this zone lies a **Strong High (SH) around 3,350**, a potential liquidity magnet
5. Overall bias is bullish unless strong rejection appears from upper OB
---
## 📌 Trade Plan:
| Position | Entry Confirmation Zone | Stop Loss (SL) | Take Profit (TP) |
|----------|--------------------------|----------------|------------------|
|
| Short (scalp only) | Bearish reaction from 3,345–3,350 | Above 3,353 | TP1: 3,310 / TP2: 3,290 |
---
## ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch:
- 🔺 High-impact USD news (July 1st releases: Manufacturing PMI / employment preview)
- 🔺 Overextension above supply zone without support → trap risk
- 🔺 Bull trap risk if price spikes above 3,340 then sharply reverses
---
## ✅ Summary:
> **Start of July** could fuel volatility and directional momentum.
> The structure is clearly bullish short-term, but upper liquidity zones remain **highly reactive**.
> Smart traders will wait for reaction at the 3,340–3,350 SH zone before overcommitting.
**Structure:** 🔴 bearish momentum
**Efficiency:** ✅ Clean
**Liquidity:** 🔺 Above SH & Below recent HL
📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
BTCUSDTBTC ,another complete analysis as posted for free early ,the weekly candle failed to break and close above 4hr supply roof at 108k and the next step is to watch the current 4hrs demand floor .A BREAK OF STRUTURE WILL BE EYEING 96-94K ,THE EMA+SMA STRATEGY ALIGNS WITH THE ASCENDING TREND LINE FOR A POTENTIAL BUY BACK WHERE WE HOPE TO CHALLENGE BROKEN 100K ZONE AS NEXT SUPPLY ROOF IF RESPECTED.
Bullish momentum to extend?AUD/CAD has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 0.8938
1st Support: 0.8905
1st Resistance: 0.9009
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Critical Channel Watch Begins on the 1-Hour Chart of USDJPY.Hey everyone,
📉 My Latest USDJPY Analysis:
USDJPY is currently moving within a downtrend. If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the parallel channel, our first target level will be 142.910. The most crucial factor here is the downward breakout of that channel—don’t overlook it.
Also, keep a close eye on key economic data releases on the fundamental side, as they could significantly influence your strategy.
I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses.
I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
Multi timeframe Pullback reversal entriesThis is very simple but yet effective way of trading. Entry through Multi timeframe analysis. Price riding on MA ( respecting MA levels) and at Pullback - we can enter at reversal in lower time frame once price started riding MA. Though this is very basic - but very effective as this can be applied in timeframe. The sync between higher and lower timeframe for entry. We can exit as per out trade rules - either lower TF MA breach or Higher TF. Entry with proper calculation of Risk Reward only. This is the basic strategy of trend following specially for learners and practicing trading. Even season traders use this. MA period can be arranged as per suitability. Here I have applied 30/50.
This for educational and learning purpose only. Enter trading post proper practice only.
Views are highly welcome.
$BTC Consolidating Before the Next Big Move?CRYPTOCAP:BTC consolidating after a strong bounce!
Bitcoin is holding well above the 106K support zone and forming a tight range just below resistance.
After a false breakout above 100K, the price is compressing just below key resistance at 108100.
This consolidation between 106500 and 108100 looks like a pause, not a top.
If BTC breaks 108100, the next targets are 110500 and ATH.
Market structure is still bullish.
A retest of 106500–105650 is possible before liftoff.
Are you positioned for the breakout?
If you find my updates helpful, don’t forget to like and follow for more!
DYOR, NFA
#BitcoinRecovery
AUDCAD Bullish week AUDCAD Bullish Confluence Analysis:
1. Daily Timeframe: Bullish daily candle closed after sweeping the previous day’s sell-side liquidity — indicating a strong rejection and potential shift in momentum.
2. 4H Structure: Price closed decisively above the key support/resistance level at 0.89300, confirming a break and potential continuation.
3. Daily Imbalance: A breakaway fair value gap (FVG) remains unfilled, with buyers showing strong intent by driving price higher — suggesting bullish pressure is still active.
4. Intraday Confirmation: Both 1H and 15M charts show breaker blocks and fair value gaps being filled, aligning with bullish targets and providing refined 15 min entry zone.
Ripple Consolidates with Bullish Bias IntactXRP was rejected at the previous week’s high of $2.34 and is currently testing support at $2.22. As long as it holds above $2.16 or the 50-SMA, the bullish trend remains valid, with $2.34 likely to be retested.
On the flip side, a close below $2.16 could trigger a decline toward $2.07.
#PORTALUSDT NEXT MOVE ?#PORTAL
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is expected to break and continue upward.
We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average once again.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the upward break.
We have a support area at the lower boundary of the channel at 0.0284, acting as strong support from which the price can rebound.
We have a major support area in green that pushed the price upward at 0.02750.
Entry price: 0.0288.
First target: 0.0297.
Second target: 0.0310.
Third target: 0.0325.
To manage risk, don't forget stop loss and capital management.
When you reach the first target, save some profits and then change the stop order to an entry order.
For inquiries, please comment.
Thank you.