Gold fluctuates and is under pressure, the trend is bearish!Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: Gold fell by $240 in two trading days, but the rebound was also very strong, from yesterday's low of 3260 to 3367 in the early trading. The current volatility is still large, and the high and low points of $100 often appear. It is normal to fluctuate by dozens of dollars at random. So pay attention to the market. There is no shortage of opportunities. Just grab what you can grasp.
โ From a technical perspective, yesterday's closing was negative, slightly piercing the MA10 moving average, and losing the trend support line mentioned yesterday. Originally, today's technical theory should continue to be under pressure from the MA5-day, and the rebound confirmed that trend line, which can continue to be bearish, that is, 3338-40; but today's Asian session saw a strong wave of upward rush, reaching 3367 directly, which was quite unexpected. It was basically stimulated by short-term risk aversion news, and then it began to rise and fall, and then returned to below 3340; as long as the closing cannot break through and stand above the MA5-day resistance, it is still in a downward adjustment; today, it is still bearish, and the gold layout long orders were successfully harvested at 3316. Gold rebounded to 3343 and continued to be short. Gold fell again and harvested, and won two consecutive victories again. At present, the gold rebound is limited, and the US market rebound is still short.
Gold's 1-hour moving average has formed a dead cross, so the moving average has not turned upward, so there is still downward momentum, and the rebound can continue to be shorted. After the Asian session hit a high and fell, gold rebounded several times and fell back under pressure near 3345. The US session rebounded below 3345 and continued to be shorted. It can still be shorted near the rebound of 3340. At present, gold is just a rebound. If there is no special risk-averse news, it is still difficult to go up directly. At least it must fluctuate first, and it is still bearish and volatile now. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is to short on rebounds and to go long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3368-3370 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3260-3285 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Community ideas
Bonds Could be Forming a Big Low The drop in bonds took them down the 76 retracement level and this is where we're stalled out, at least for now.
Action in this area is consistent with a head and shoulders - and if that pattern is in play then we'd be into the rally in bonds now.
Something that's always worth noticing is when there's a lot of talk of something dramatic happening in something but it doesn't make a new extreme.
During the last drop in bonds there was extreme bear sentiment (It's not even something I'm all that interested in and I was seeing it everywhere) but this drop has so far failed to break the low and, perhaps critically, remains above the 76. Currently in the pending reversal zone we have the formation of a possible reversal pattern.
This is a premise we can invert to the yields also.
If these reversals play out, they predict that these start to change really quickly. We'd be heading out of the late reversal stages and into the early trend.
We'd expect to see bonds sharp up and yields sharp down.
Failure of these levels as reversals would imply a far stronger trend in these, but I do think the odds skew better towards reversals here as per the TA norms.
EURUSD: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD togetherโบ๏ธ
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 1.13622 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 1.13967 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
Opening (IRA): SPY June 20th 375 Short Put... for a 3.74 credit
Comments: High IVR/>21 IV. Starting to ladder out here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Will generally look to roll up at 50% max to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit if >45 DTE remain in the expiry and IVR/IV remains sufficient to collect 1% of the strike price in credit at 16 delta or less.
Opening (IRA): SPY May 16th 385 Short Put... for a 4.04 credit.
Comments: High IVR, >21 IV. Sticking a little pickle in here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit which is quite a bit out of the money at the 8 delta.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 380.96
Max Profit: 4.04
ROC at Max: 1.06%
50% Max: 2.02
ROC at 50% Max: .54%
Oscillating downward! The bearish trend is beginning to emerge!ใGold Analysisใ
Interpretation of news: The current market presents a "three-legged" pattern: First, the uncertainty of the trade war. If the US insists on imposing new tariffs, the gold price may hit the $3,500 mark again; second, the suspense of the Fed's policy. Whether the May meeting will release a signal of interest rate cuts will become a key turning point; finally, the trend of the US dollar. If subsequent economic data continues to deteriorate, the US dollar index may fall below the 99 integer mark. The current gold market is caught in a fierce game of long and short factors. In terms of the trade war, the situation is not as good as Trump's remarks. The Asian giant issued a solemn statement on Thursday, emphasizing that if the US is sincere about solving the problem, all unilateral tariffs should be immediately cancelled. This statement is in sharp contrast to the "negotiation signal" recently released by the White House, making the trade outlook more confusing.
The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. On the one hand, Finance Minister Bensont's statement that the trade confrontation may continue has triggered a rise in risk aversion; on the other hand, the expectation that the Fed may cut interest rates has provided fundamental support for gold. This complex psychology is the main reason why the price of gold fluctuates in the range of 3260-3500 US dollars. There is one last trading day this week. Let's see how this week ends.
From the daily chart of gold, after the exaggerated reversal in the middle of the week, the current price of gold has not only lost the important support of 3350, but also formed an obvious bearish evening star in terms of shape, which means that there may be further correction space in the future. In addition, at this stage, the short-term moving averages MA5 and MA10 have been broken one after another, so it is not ruled out that they will continue to move closer to MA20, but their position is still below 3200.
From the 4-hour chart of gold, although it once fell nearly 200 US dollars from the high, the price of gold gradually stood firm yesterday and began to fluctuate and rebound. It has now returned to above 3270. However, given that the moving average group is in a sticky state and the MACD indicator is adjusted to near the 0 axis, the short-term long and short competition may become more intense. Therefore, it is recommended to keep selling high and buying low as the main strategy, which is more stable. Pay attention to the resistance of 3370-3375 on the top and the support of 3285-3280 on the bottom;
Investment strategy: short gold at 3310-3320, target 3265.
Gold's decline under pressure is in line with expectations! Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: This week, gold prices fluctuated, opening at 3332. So far, the high is 3500 US dollars and the low is 3260 US dollars. On Monday, it soared by 100 US dollars. On Tuesday, it continued to rise to 3500 highs in the Asian session and then fell back. On Tuesday and Wednesday, it plummeted by nearly 240 US dollars. The volatility slowed down on Thursday. The overall intraday fluctuations remained within 3367-3288. Today, the weekly line closed. The weekly line will compete for the closing of the Yin-Yang cross K line. The short-term is more intense. From the consolidation on Thursday, there is no further decline, which also leaves room and suspense for today's weekly closing. If the weekly line closes lower, it is expected to adjust further next week. Pay attention to the closing strength and weakness of the weekly K line this week.
Today's opening trend of the gold market is like yesterday. The Asian session started the upward mode, rising all the way to around 3370 US dollars. However, it encountered strong resistance here, and then turned downward and started a decline. It is worth noting that today's gold price not only failed to break through this key resistance level, but also fell below the low hit in yesterday's European and American sessions, falling to a low of US$3,287 before rebounding.
In view of the important trend of gold price breaking the key point, the market will most likely continue the short-selling idea in the future. From the current market structure, the position of $3260 has become the focus of the market. Investors need to pay close attention to whether the gold price can reach or even fall below this point. Once it effectively falls below, the short-selling trend will be further strengthened, and the market may usher in a deeper adjustment.
From the hourly level, yesterday's low was at $3306, and the rebound just now showed an obvious stop signal at this position. Based on this, the current short-term suppression level can refer to $3315, and the upper level is $3328. For short-term investors, you can consider waiting for the gold price to rebound to around $3315 to arrange a short order and continue to be bearish on the gold price. The first thing to pay attention to below is the support of the low point just touched at $3287. If this support level is lost, the next key support level will be $3260, the first low point on the previous downward journey. If $3260 is also effectively broken, the short-selling force will be further released, and the gold price may face a larger decline. On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebound and long on pullback. The upper short-term focus is on the 3315-3320 resistance line, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3285-3260 support line. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Gold operation strategy reference: short gold rebound near 3310-3320, target near 3290-3285, break to see 3260 line.
Gold pullback near 3270-3260 long, target near 3290-3310, break to see 3330 line.
BTCUSD 4 - hour Chart AnalysisBTCUSD 4 - hour Chart Analysis
I. Trend Judgment
From the 4 - hour chart, BTCUSD is on an upward trend, consolidating at relatively high levels. Despite price fluctuations, bulls are still in control to some extent ๐.
II. Key Levels
Support Area: The 90,000 - 91,500 range is a key support zone. The price has rebounded here multiple times, suggesting strong buying interest. If it drops back, it could be a buying opportunity ๐. 86,000 and 83,000 are additional lower - level supports.
Resistance Area: 95,000 is the resistance area. The price has faced hurdles here. If bullish momentum strengthens, breaking this could open up more upside ๐.
III. Trading Strategies
Long - position Strategy: When the price retreats to the 90,000 - 91,500 support area and a bullish candlestick shows up, consider going long. Place stop - loss below the support and aim for 95,000. If broken, higher levels may follow ๐ฐ.
Short - position Strategy: Near 95,000, if a bearish candlestick appears with rising volume, try a small short position. Set stop - loss above resistance and target 91,500 - 90,000 โฌ๏ธ.
โกโกโก BTCUSD โกโกโก
๐ Sell@95000 - 94000
๐ TP 92000 - 91000
๐ Buy@91000 - 92000
๐ TP 94000 - 95000
Accurate signals are updated every day ๐ If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide ๐งญ Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you ๐
GOLD: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD togetherโบ๏ธ
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,270.77 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,242.15..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
Short-Term Trade Setup: NZDCAD Eyes 0.82898โ0.83110 TargetsGood day Traders,
Trust you are well.
Below is my analysis of NZDCAD.
Overview:
NZDCAD is retracing from the recent high at 0.83050, currently trading around 0.82628. Price action is approaching a key support zone between 0.82470 โ 0.82285, an area that previously triggered bullish reactions. Momentum indicators are showing bearish pressure, with red histogram bars visible on the chart.
Idea:
Although bearish momentum is present, the histogram shows a slight decrease in selling pressure, hinting at a potential slowdown in the current downtrend. If the pair holds above the 0.82287 level, it could signal a potential reversal or bounce. This would open room for bullish targets at: 0.82898, 0.83039 and 0.83110.
However, a confirmed break below 0.82287 could expose the next support around 0.82100.
Conclusion:
The pair is at a critical support zone, with decreasing momentum suggesting that sellers may be losing strength. A bounce from current levels could provide a short-term buying opportunity, while a break below 0.82287 would invalidate the bullish outlook.
Cheers and happy trading!
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025
๐ 5530 5560
๐ 5475 5445
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs ๐ค๐๐๐ฏ๐ฐ
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Gold may hit a second bottom today!From the perspective of the daily line, yesterday's rebound relied on the short-term moving average to close positive, but the rebound was not very strong and the continuity was poor. If it can continue to close positive today, it will lay the foundation for an upward trend, and then it can be seen to gradually strengthen. If it closes negative today, or even falls below the short-term moving average, then gold may fall again.
From the previous round of bottom support 2790, there is a triple bottom, and there is a bottoming process. Therefore, gold cannot be too optimistic about returning to a strong bull market at present, and still has this psychological expectation.
EURUSD 4H Time-frame analysis Let's dive into my EURUSD analysis on the 4-hour timeframe. From what I can see on your chart, here's a more detailed breakdown of potential interpretations:
It looks like I've identified some key horizontal levels. These are often significant areas of interest for traders because they can act as:
Support: Price might find it difficult to fall below these levels, and buying pressure could emerge. The lower horizontal line you've drawn around 1.12059 appears to be a potential support level. Notice how price bounced off this area previously in late March.
Resistance: Conversely, price might struggle to rise above these levels, and selling pressure could take over. The upper yellow highlighted area, with the recent high reaching just above 1.13345, looks like a significant resistance zone. The price has recently tested this level and is currently pulling back.
Recent Price Action:
The sharp upward move in April, culminating at that high, suggests strong buying pressure. However, the immediate pullback indicates that the resistance zone is holding, at least for now.
Potential Scenarios:
Based on what I'm seeing, here are a couple of potential scenarios to consider:
Rejection at Resistance: The current pullback could signify a rejection of the resistance zone. If selling pressure continues, we might see the price move back down towards your identified support level around 1.12059. A break below this support could then open the door for further downside.
Consolidation and Breakout: Alternatively, the price might consolidate within the range defined by your resistance and support levels for a while. A subsequent break above the resistance (the yellow zone) would suggest renewed buying momentum and could lead to further upside. Conversely, a break below the support would reinforce the bearish scenario.
Things to Consider for Further Analysis:
To get a more complete picture, you might want to consider:
Candlestick Patterns: Are there any specific candlestick patterns forming at the resistance level (like a bearish engulfing or a shooting star) that could confirm rejection? Similarly, look for bullish patterns near the support if price revisits that area.
Volume: Analyzing the volume during the recent push to the high and the subsequent pullback could provide clues about the strength of the moves. High volume on the push-up might suggest strong buying interest, while high volume on the pullback could indicate strong selling pressure.
Technical Indicators: Incorporating indicators like Moving Averages, RSI, or MACD could offer additional context and potential confirmation signals. For instance, is the RSI in overbought territory near the resistance? Is the MACD showing signs of bearish divergence?
Fundamental Analysis: Keep an eye on any upcoming economic news or events related to the Euro or the US Dollar that could influence the price action.
Remember, this is just an interpretation based on the snapshot you've provided. Trading involves probabilities, and no analysis is foolproof. It's crucial to manage your risk appropriately.
What are your thoughts on these observations? What was your initial reasoning behind marking these specific levels? I'd be interested to hear more about your perspective!
April 25, 2025 โ GBPJPY Short๐ Bias: Bearish | Risk: 0.5% | ๐ฏ Target: 1:3
๐ง Reasoning:
Reaction from Daily Imbalance + Daily EMA ๐. Buyers showing weakness, sellers taking control โ๏ธ.
After completing the extended wick, price left a clean imbalance โ thatโs where Im planning to enter ๐ฏ.
โ ๏ธ Note:
We could spike higher into the Weekly EMA, but setup still looks solid. SL: 20 pips ๐ก๏ธ
[ TimeLine ] Gold 21-22 April 2025Hello everyone,
๐
Today is Monday, April 21, 2025
I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as reference points for potential trade entries:
๐ April 21, 2025 (Monday)
๐ April 22, 2025 (Tuesday)
๐ง Trading Plan & Notes:
โ
Gold has broken its ATH multiple times over the past two weeks โvolatility remains high
โ
The range formed on April 21 is approximately 3331 to 3430 โ a massive 1000-pip zone
โ ๏ธ Due to the large range, reversal entries or trades based on Fibonacci levels may be more appropriate
โ
I will personally trade both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy
โ ๏ธ If you're unsure or risk-averse , consider skipping April 21's signal
๐ Execution Plan:
๐น Wait for the price range from the candles above to fully form ( marked with green lines )
๐น Entry will be triggered upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer
๐น If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), switch direction and double the position size on the next valid entry for potential recovery
๐๐ Chart Reference:
x/lgXVOC2u/
EURUSD Potential Long Play @1.109 (Demand zone) Thoughts on this potential Long play from a bounce of a identified demand zone @ the price level of 1.109? TP and SL also included in the set-up. Does Market structure make sense for this play? that's the only thing I'm a bit uncertain about. I used the Top-down approach, looking at 1W>1D>4H>1H>15M>5M.
Would like to hear your thoughts about it!