ETHUSD , Target 3000$The result of the analysis before Ethereum, one week after the analysis, reaching the first target of $3000
Sasha Charkhchian
Community ideas
Rising Wedge.. BTC short position...Although the market has a strong bull momentum despite the positive dynamics, prices need to rest and correct after a point, and in this regard, tokens purchased at low prices need profit realization.
I wonder if we are there now. First of all, I detect that there is a rising wedge formation on my chart.
Then, we witness that the 5 indicators on the left, which represent momentum, have lost their power in the Market Sentiment Technicals indicator, which is LuxAlgo's magnificent indicator. Prices are still bullish, but the trend has not changed yet. But there are signs of change and risks are taken for this.
In the Market Sentiment Oscillator at the bottom, we are faced with an oscillator line that becomes weaker and peaks lower each time, despite the upward prices. This trace gives a clear sign of discordance. In such a case, we are sure that prices will go lower at the wedge break. The right thing to do is to wait for a breakout and enter the transaction.
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone,
Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community!
As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such.
One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as:
a) It is not inflation adjusted,
b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time,
c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range.
You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as:
a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years,
b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model,
c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down.
So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data?
Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances.
To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history.
Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%.
Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%.
How about normal, bull market years?
To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode.
First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain.
Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%!
Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close!
So what does this tell us?
Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years:
Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now!
The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following:
The mode is 15% and the median is 24%.
So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it.
Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years.
However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64.
I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell:
SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%.
SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%.
SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY:
Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15
Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67.
One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible?
This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move.
Safe trades everyone!
Bitcoin, a slight pullBitcoin could go into some sideways consolidation before returning to the $73000 level. There, we would retest the zone of the previous break. For further, we will see. The bullish trend is still strong, and this is just an option to find a new support level from which we could initiate a new bullish consolidation.
COINBASE Ahead of an enormous bullish break-out.In recent times, we have focused on Coinbase's (COIN) long-term potential on higher time-frames (1W) like the one below (September 09) where we gave a great buy signal on the absolute bottom of the 2-year Channel Up:
On today's analysis we look into the 1D time-frame as Coinbase is about to test its longest 2024 Resistance, the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the March 25 2024 High. With added bullish pressure by the 1D MACD Bullish Cross formed 2 days ago, if this Lower Highs trend-line breaks, we can technically have a very aggressive rally.
The September 06 bottom can be seen as the start of the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which has a standard Target on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is just above $340. As a result, if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks, you can take additional buys to target $340.
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Shiba Inu Update: Bearish, New Entry PossibleI am using the same chart as before with the same drawings, the same trading range.
Notice that SHIBUSDT (Shiba Inu) produced a lower high recently and continues bearish. Our leverage SHORT is active with two targets hit and now a new entry is possible.
There was a small bounce, three days green, and this is repeating all across the market. This is due to the positive US elections results. The excitement is dying out though and the market is about to resume the main trend in which it has been moving for most of the year.
A lower low is possible and we wait patiently for the chart/market to unravel.
If prices move and close above the upper boundary of the trading range, bullish potential becomes active. As long as the trading is happening within the channel, the potential remains bearish.
I will do an update for PEPEUSDT tomorrow when my publishing slots open, I belief I reached the limit for today.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
SOL looks bullish againsol seems to have completed a diametric correction as the g wave is dwarfed another bullish trend is expected to form.
By maintaining the green range, it can move towards the targets.
Closing a daily candle below the invalidation level will violate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical, Order Flow and On-Chain !In this video I will be sharing my BTCUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software, then I will be moving to the on-chain analysis and lastly I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
Mastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TVMastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TradingView 📊
The Anchored Volume Profile is a powerful tool that traders use to visualize volume distribution over a specified price range, providing critical insights into market behavior. Here’s a detailed description of its setup and usage on TradingView:
In this video, we will be going in-depth into the following areas:
What is the Anchored Volume Profile?
The Anchored Volume Profile is a specialized indicator that helps traders understand the distribution of traded volume at different price levels. Unlike traditional volume profiles that analyze data over a fixed time period, the anchored version allows traders to anchor the volume analysis to specific bars, candles, or price points.
Why Use the Anchored Volume Profile?
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels: You can easily identify key support and resistance levels by analyzing where the most volume has been traded.
Spotting Trends and Reversals: High-volume nodes can indicate areas of strong interest, helping to predict potential trend continuations or reversals.
Improving Entry and Exit Points: Knowing where the market participants are most active can significantly enhance your decision-making process for entries and exits.
How to set up the Anchored Volume Profile on TradingView:
Add the Anchored Volume Profile Indicator:
Click on the “Indicators” button at the top of the chart.
Search for “Anchored Volume Profile” in the search bar.
Select it from the list and apply it to your chart.
Anchor the Indicator:
Click on the anchor icon that appears on the chart.
Drag it to the specific bar, candle, or price point where you want to start your volume analysis.
Customize Settings:
Adjust the settings to suit your trading style. You can modify the range, color, and other parameters to better visualize the data.
Using the Anchored Volume Profile:
Analyzing Volume Nodes: Identify high and low volume nodes. High volume nodes often act as support or resistance, while low volume nodes might indicate potential breakout areas.
Understanding Market Sentiment: See where the majority of trading activity has taken place to gauge market sentiment.
Making Informed Decisions: Use the insights from the volume profile to make better-informed trading decisions regarding entries, exits, and stop-loss levels.
BITCOIN Correction Is Done🔥 And Finally The BITCOIN Price Break The Important 74k Resistance Area By The Strong Green Candle And Now I Can Say BTC Correction Is Done
👉 During Last 5 Days I Was Waiting To Get a Strong Market Entry Confirmation From The Market After USA Election And Today I Got It
📊 Don’t Forget More Than 90% Of Coins Are Under Their 2 Months Ago Highs So There Are Lots Of Great Buy Opportunity All Over The Market, New Alts Signals Are Coming
GOLD - Price can reah resistance level and then start to fallHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price grew inside rising channel, where ot fell to support area and then bounced up, breaking $2500 level.
Then price rose in channel to $2605 level, exited from rising channel, and started to trades inside flat.
In flat, Gold rose to top part and then made a correction to $2605 support level, after which bounced up.
Price exited from flat and continued to grow inside pennant, where it rose to resistance line, breaking $2710 level.
But recently, XAU turned around and made downward impulse, exited from pennant, and broke $2710 level one more time.
Now it growing and I think Gold can reach resistance level and then fall to $2605 support level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
xrp target $2.29 by june 2025simple pattern trading, nothing big, not an impossible target.. goodluck
CABAL_DEV | SCRiPT & SETTINGS | Back Tested & Traded Understanding the Mind of the Designated Dealer can be confusing and downright a pain in the neck. From watching Order Books looking at Event News Driven catalyst and waiting for our beloved signals.
-----
DEV stands for Developer or Deviation
as Price moves in a Non Linear fashion due to human behavior
this CABAL iNDiCATOR weeds out the NOiSE and presents you
the motive / intent of the HANDLER (operator) on inflicting
PAiN SUFFERiNG JOY FOMO and ECSTACY
good lucks and may the Spirit of Satoshi Roundtable be in tune with your INSTINCTS.
Respect the Dev!
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// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org
// © senyor
study("Cabal_Moves", overlay=true)
plot(ema(close, 5), color=#FF2626, linewidth=2, offset=1, title='5 Day EMA')
plot(ema(close, 50), color=#00FF00, linewidth=2, offset=1, title='50 Day EMA')
// - validated by first higher low
//- Supplementary Confirmation for Cabal_Dev_iNDEX
=============================================================================
//@version=6
// Cabal_Dev_Indicator
// Author: Senyor
// Copyright: Open
// For the Good Of Humanity
// Requirement: Discipline . Do not Argue with GREED
// Release: v2.1
indicator("Cabal Dev Indicator", shorttitle = "Cabal_Dev_iNDEX")
// Input parameters
a = input.int(15, "Percent K Length", minval=1)
b = input.int(3, "Percent D Length", minval=1)
c = input.int(15, "EMA Signal Length", minval=1)
smooth_period = input.int(5, "Smoothing Period", minval=1)
ob = input.float(40, "Overbought", minval=-100, maxval=100)
os = input.float(-40, "Oversold", minval=-100, maxval=100)
// Range Calculation
ll = ta.lowest(low, a)
hh = ta.highest(high, a)
diff = hh - ll
rdiff = close - (hh+ll)/2
avgrel = ta.ema(rdiff, b)
avgdiff = ta.ema(diff, b)
// SMI calculations
SMI = avgdiff != 0 ? (avgrel/(avgdiff/2)*100) : 0.0
// Apply smoothing to SMI
SMI_smoothed = ta.sma(SMI, smooth_period)
SMIsignal = ta.ema(SMI_smoothed, b)
emasignal = ta.ema(SMI_smoothed, c)
// Plotting
plot(SMI_smoothed, "Stochastic", color=color.green)
plot(emasignal, "EMA", color=color.white)
h0 = hline(ob, "Overbought", color=color.gray)
h1 = hline(os, "Oversold", color=color.gray)
level_ob = ob
level_obsmi = SMI_smoothed > level_ob ? SMI_smoothed : level_ob
level_os = os
level_ossmi = SMI_smoothed < level_os ? SMI_smoothed : level_os
p1 = plot(level_ob, display=display.none)
p2 = plot(level_obsmi, display=display.none)
p3 = plot(level_os, display=display.none)
p4 = plot(level_ossmi, display=display.none)
fill(p1, p2, color=color.new(color.red, 60), title='OverBought')
fill(p3, p4, color=color.new(color.green, 60), title='OverSold')
==================================
note: My Preferred Settings for this isse #FARTCOiN
For CABAL_DEV_iNDEX
settings are as follows
K: 5
D: 1
L: 5
P: 5
DXY topped on the 1-year Channel Down. Strong downside potentialThe U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 03 2023 High (13 months) and yesterday got the first red 1D candle after almost touching the pattern's top (Lower Highs trend-line) the day before.
As the 1D RSI has dropped significantly after being overbought 2 weeks ago, this is a very similar top formation to the Highs of April 16 2024 and October 03 2023. As a result this is the earliest possible sell entry we can take to target long-term the new Lower Low of the Channel Down.
The previous two Bearish Legs priced their Lows after roughly a -6.00% to -6.25% decline, just above the 1.1 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our Target is 99.800.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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Leap Competition: Top 3% in 5 Days! Here's HowLast competition, I hit the top 2% in the Leap Competition on TradingView. This time, though, something clicked. In just 5 days, I was already back in the top 3%.
I didn't change my strategy. Instead I focused on refining how I managed risk. I stopped obsessing over perfect entry points and focused on squeezing as much profit as possible from each trade. That meant shifting to a new management technique.
I prioritized a high risk-to-reward ratio, knowing that fewer trades could yield better returns. By using a trailing stop-loss, each trade had room to reach its potential without getting cut off too soon. This approach transformed each trade into a high-upside opportunity, letting winners ride and securing profits along the way.
Over the last few days, I made fewer than ten trades. Each one was carefully planned through a top-down approach, looking at the bigger picture on higher timeframes to catch the market’s broader trends. This view kept me aligned with the trend, setting up trades with stronger potential.
What really amplified my results, though, was the trailing stop. By locking in profits while riding the market’s momentum, this tool turned profitable trades into standout winners. It let me capture each market move fully without jumping out too soon.
Now, let’s get into the top trade that helped me to get into top 3% within less than a week:
And here’s the trailing stop-loss indicator I’m using—perfect for trades with room to run:
//@version=5
indicator("Swing Low Trailing Stop", overlay=true)
// User Inputs
initialStopPercentage = input.float(0.5, title="Initial Stop Loss Percentage", minval=0.01, step=0.01) * 0.01
Swing_Period = input.int(10, "Swing Period")
i_date = input.time(timestamp("05 Nov 2024 00:00 +0300"), "Start Date")
// Variables for tracking stop loss
var float stopLossPrice = na
var float lastSwingLow = na
// Calculate Swing Low
swingLow = ta.lowest(low, Swing_Period)
// Logic
if i_date == time
stopLossPrice := low * (1 - initialStopPercentage)
lastSwingLow := swingLow
// Update Stop Loss
if time > i_date
newSwingLow = swingLow
if (newSwingLow > lastSwingLow )
stopLossPrice := math.max(stopLossPrice, newSwingLow)
lastSwingLow := newSwingLow
// Plot the stop loss price for visualization
plot(time >= i_date ? stopLossPrice : na, title="Trailing Stop Loss", color=color.red, linewidth=2, style=plot.style_linebr)
With this refined approach, I can’t wait for next week and the fresh opportunities that lie ahead!
Big thanks to the TradingView community for creating opportunities like this competition—it’s a game-changer. Getting to test and refine strategies in a real, competitive environment pushes all o us to get better every day!
If you haven’t joined already, make sure to hop into the competition . It’s an incredible way to challenge yourself, sharpen your skills, and see how you stack up against other traders!
Keep focusing on becoming 1% better every day if you want to make this happen.
Moein
Gold Rise to Resistance Zone: Elliott Wave!!!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to correct as I ✅ expected in previous posts ✅. Did you profit from this move!?
Gold started to rise well from the Support zone($2,645-$2,625) and 50_SMA(Daily) .
Gold is moving near the Resistance zone($2,720-$2,700) and the lower line of the ascending channel (broken) .
According to the Elliott wave theory , it seems that Gold has succeeded in completing microwave 3 . We should wait for the completion of microwave 4 , and then probably microwave 5 will end in the Resistance zone($2,720-$2,700) and Monthly Pivot Point .
⚠️Note: We should expect more pumps if Gold goes above the Resistance zone($2,720-$2,700).⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
The market is showing signs of a rejection What im seeing is the market pushing to create zones so that sellers can join I will be looking to see what happens at the fvg
GRT NEW UPDATE (12H)From where we entered "start" on the chart, it seems that the GRT correction has started.
This correction seems to be a diametric that is over. We are now at the end of the G wave.
A support range has been formed, which we marked with green color. By maintaining this range, it can move towards the red range
Closing a daily candle below the invalidation level will violate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit.
Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600.
Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week.
✌️ Stew
EURJPY Forming Bullish Divergence – Potential ReversalEURJPY is currently testing a strong support level and showing signs of a potential reversal.
