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XAUUSD: Gold Surges on U.S. Fiscal Reform ExpectationsGold remains firmly within a short-term bullish structure after rebounding strongly from the $3,258 support zone and forming a consolidation pattern just below the $3,342 resistance. This area marks the confluence of a descending trendline and a fair value gap (FVG), where buyers may gather momentum to break through. Fundamental news continues to favor the upside: concerns over the U.S. budget deficit and an upcoming tax reform package have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Meanwhile, U.S. bond yields and the dollar remain low, further driving capital into precious metals. Yesterday, gold rose by approximately $33.49, equivalent to 3,349 pips, confirming strong bullish inflows. If price breaks above the $3,342–$3,356 zone, the next target could extend beyond the $3,400 mark. However, if short-term pullbacks occur, the $3,258 area remains a key support level to watch for potential bullish re-entry signals.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rocky_trade_
6
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3450 (Wave 3).Colleagues, it seems that the correction turned out to be a little deeper than I thought. This means that wave “1” of the middle order has been formed and now correction wave “2” is ending. I still expect an upward movement. I believe that the maximum of wave “1” — the resistance area of 3450 — will be reached within wave “3”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
12
How to make accurate layout during gold volatility?Gold maintained a small range of fluctuations and consolidation rhythm today. In the morning, we arranged long orders at 3330-3331 and successfully exited at 3343. Affected by the ADP data, the gold price broke through 3345 and hit 3351. We also arranged short orders in the 3350-3351 area in time and are still holding positions. The focus of the support below is 3325-3315, which is the key position today. As long as this position is maintained, the long position will rebound and rise. Otherwise, it will fall into the battle for support at 3305-3295. In terms of operation, we continue to step back and do more. From the current analysis of gold trend, the support below focuses on 3325-3315. The main bullish trend remains unchanged. Focus on the long-short watershed position of 3305-3295. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to step back and do more bullish rhythm.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
3
Gold price analysis July 2As expected, after the D1 candle showed the return of buying power, yesterday's trading session saw the price continue its upward trend and reach 3357. Currently, the market is in an accumulation phase with a fairly wide range, fluctuating from 3328 to 3344. This is an important price zone, acting as a "sideway box" waiting for a breakout. The priority strategy at this time is still trend trading - activated when the price breaks out of the above accumulation zone. BUY orders will have a high probability of success if the price adjusts and retests the Support or Resistance zones that have just been broken, then forms a confirmation signal. Meanwhile, SELL orders around resistance should only be considered a recovery strategy in an uptrend - requiring strict risk management and short-term profit expectations. Breakout Range: 3328 – 3344 Support: 3310 – 3298 Resistance: 3368 – 3386
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
Bullish patterns & Monthly Breakouts in Alkyl AminesGood afternoon Folks, This stock has given us a breakout from falling wedge pattern and from inverse H & S pattern and with a strong green candle - The next step is either you can enter now as a big green candle without rejection shows bulls strength. - Next is to wait for the 2nd green candle closes around high which acts as confirmation and the classical way to trade breakouts. - Now as per the John Murphy's book the target for Inverse H&S Breakout will be the size of head which I have marked in yellow which suggest 44% upmove or else you can use pivots which gives you support and resistance which can help you to understand from where price is taking support or where it is facing rejection. - it will also helps you with target and stoploss. THIS ARE MY PERSONAL VIEWS OR ANALYSIS NOT ANY RECOMMENDATIONS.
NSE:ALKYLAMINELong
by investorragnarok
2
EUR/USD Wave 5 Topped? Correction Incoming to 1.076FX_IDC:EURUSD PEPPERSTONE:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD 📈 Chart Breakdown 🔢 Elliott Impulse Wave Completed: Waves (1) to (5) appear to form a clean 5-wave impulse structure upward. Final wave (5) is diverging on the oscillator (RSI), signaling potential bullish exhaustion. 🧾 ABC Correction Expected: After the 5-wave impulse, you project an ABC corrective move: Wave A: initial drop Wave B: partial recovery Wave C: deeper move likely toward the 1.07680 support (blue horizontal line) ⚠️ Bearish RSI Divergence: The label "Div" confirms bearish divergence between price and RSI → typical at end of Wave (5). 🧠 Summary: Structure: 5-wave impulse + projected 3-wave correction Bias: Short-term bearish targeting 1.07680 Confirmation: Look for break below support or trendline + momentum shift
Short
by Trwin
2
BTC third tap incoming? Recently, BTC has traded for a large amount of time in ranging environments. These ranges have started with a local range high and then an initial 3-tap accumulation (i.e., a local low and then two sweeps of that low) before making a solid attempt at the range highs. The sweeps of the lows are meant to shake people out and provide fuel to try to break higher. The previous two times, that initial attempt failed and the price was sent lower to put in a second 3-tap accumulation at lower prices. Will the current price move back down to put in the 3rd tap of the current relatively small accumulation? That is my base case. I believe we will see some lower prices locally to put in the 3rd tap. I think the Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator (BSTI) will fire off green one more time and then we will then make a run to try to break out of this current massive range (that started last year in November). This current range is fairly small, so it is not worth it to me to sell here to try to buy lower. The bigger question is: Will we have enough fuel to durably break out of this range after the 3rd tap of the current accumulation (green line) or are we destined to repeat the pattern of the last two bigger ranges (red line), one of which we are still in? I personally believe we will break out after the smaller range 3rd tap (the green line) based on the larger context of cycle theory, how long we have been in this range, and how the current small range is part of the larger range starting back in November 2024. It will be interesting to see what happens. Da_Prof Note that TV won't allow publication of a private/unpublished indicator anymore or I would have shown the BSTI, which is now published as invite only. It's implementation is too complicated to publish openly, so I don't feel comfortable doing that. If you want access, please DM me on TradingView. Thanks.
Short
by Da_Prof
1
GOGLZ - Sonic main meme coin, longGOGLZ - a risky memecoin for degens or a big opportunity for smart investors? Every chain should have one king of memecoins. I think GOGLZ is Sonics chosen one. Airdrop will soon land on Sonic users - the Sonic momentum will follow? GOGLZ thin 4 million dollar market cap could be a lot more soon. When GOGLZ pops its gonna run fast. I think it could be the right time to take a small before the opportunity is gone! No financial advice - risky meme coin...and I'm a Sonic bull! First target is a 70% move
CRYPTO:GOGLZGUSDLong
by TaTaTaCrypto
2
Bitcoin Supply Shock Is No Longer a Theory, But a Reality In the intricate and often frenetic world of digital assets, the market is constantly sending signals. Some are loud, ephemeral flashes of volatility that capture headlines for a day. Others are quiet, seismic shifts that build slowly beneath the surface, unnoticed by the masses until they erupt with earth-shattering force. Today, the Bitcoin network is broadcasting one of these profound, underlying signals. It speaks of a disappearance, a vanishing act on a scale never before seen, pointing toward a supply shock so significant that it threatens to redefine the very concept of price discovery for the world’s premier cryptocurrency. The paradox currently facing market observers is the disconnect between Bitcoin’s somewhat range-bound price, which has struggled to decisively conquer the territory above $120,000, and the tectonic movements occurring in its fundamental market structure. While the price action might suggest a market in equilibrium, a state of indecisive calm, the data tells a story of immense and growing tension. It is a story of a collision course between two unprecedented forces: a relentless, programmatic wave of institutional demand and a rapidly dwindling, fiercely guarded supply. The central piece of evidence, the smoking gun for this impending crisis, is the state of Bitcoin reserves on cryptocurrency exchanges. These platforms, the bustling marketplaces where buyers and sellers meet, have seen their Bitcoin inventories plummet to a seven-year low. Less than 15% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply now resides on these exchanges, a figure that is as statistically stark as it is historically significant. This isn’t merely a data point; it is a profound statement of intent from the global cohort of Bitcoin holders. It signifies a monumental shift from short-term speculation to long-term conviction, a collective decision to withdraw assets from the realm of immediate liquidity and into the deep, fortified vaults of cold storage. This great disappearance is the quiet prelude to a very loud event, and to understand its implications, one must dissect the powerful forces of both supply and demand that are pulling the market to its breaking point. The Vanishing Act: Where Has All the Bitcoin Gone? To grasp the gravity of the dwindling exchange reserves, one must first understand the role of an exchange in the life cycle of a Bitcoin. An exchange is a trading floor. Assets held there are, by their very nature, liquid and available for sale. A holder who moves their Bitcoin onto an exchange is signaling an intent to trade or sell, either immediately or in the near future. Conversely, moving Bitcoin off an exchange and into a personal, self-custodied wallet—often called cold storage—is a deliberate act of preservation. It is a declaration that the owner has no immediate intention of selling. They are choosing to become a long-term holder, a saver, effectively removing their coins from the active, tradeable supply. For years, the flow of Bitcoin onto and off of exchanges has served as a reliable barometer of market sentiment. During the euphoric peaks of past bull markets, a predictable pattern emerged: as prices soared, a flood of Bitcoin would move onto exchanges as long-term holders finally decided to take profits. This influx of supply would help to satisfy the frenzied buying demand, eventually capping the rally and leading to a market correction. This cycle, however, is fundamentally different. The opposite is happening. Despite prices reaching new all-time highs, the flow has been overwhelmingly outward. Coins are leaving exchanges at a historic pace, creating a supply-side vacuum. This exodus is not a new phenomenon, but the acceleration over the past 18 months has been breathtaking. It reflects a maturing market and a hardened investor base that has learned the lessons of previous cycles. They have witnessed Bitcoin’s resilience, its ability to weather brutal bear markets and emerge stronger each time. They are no longer content with selling for a 5x or 10x profit, only to watch the asset climb another tenfold in the subsequent years. They have transitioned from treating Bitcoin as a speculative trade to embracing it as a long-term savings technology, a digital store of value in an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic world. The coins are not lost; they have simply gone home, locked away by owners who have no interest in selling at today’s prices. The Wall Street Leviathan: A New and Insatiable Source of Demand While the available supply of Bitcoin has been quietly disappearing into private wallets, a new and powerful predator has entered the ecosystem, armed with an insatiable appetite. The launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States marked the single most significant structural change in the history of the Bitcoin market. These regulated financial products, offered by the largest asset managers in the world, have constructed a permanent, one-way bridge connecting the traditional financial system to the digital asset space. This bridge is not for casual tourism; it is a superhighway for capital. The ETFs, led by BlackRock’s behemoth iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have unleashed a torrent of institutional and retail money that is systematically draining the remaining available supply. The mechanics of these ETFs are crucial to understand. Unlike futures-based products, a spot ETF must acquire and hold the underlying asset—in this case, real Bitcoin—to back the shares it issues to investors. This means that for every dollar that flows into an ETF like IBIT, its managers must go into the open market and buy a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. The scale of this operation is staggering. In a stunning testament to the demand for this new product, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has, in its short 18-month existence, begun to generate more revenue from annual fees than its long-established and immensely popular S&P 500 fund. This is not a niche product for crypto enthusiasts; it is a mainstream financial blockbuster, attracting billions from investors seeking a simple, regulated way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This creates a relentless, programmatic buying pressure that the market has never before had to absorb. Every single trading day, the ETFs collectively purchase a significant amount of Bitcoin. This demand is constant and largely price-agnostic. It is driven by asset allocation decisions, not short-term market timing. This programmatic buying acts like a giant hydraulic pump, sucking up any loose supply available on exchanges. The daily demand from these Wall Street giants often outstrips the new supply of Bitcoin created by miners, creating a structural deficit that can only be filled by one source: the existing coins held by others. And as we’ve seen, those holders are increasingly unwilling to part with their assets. The Diamond-Handed Super-Majority: A Trillion-Dollar Standoff The collision between the insatiable demand of the ETFs and the shrinking available supply raises a critical question: why aren't the existing holders selling? With so much new money flooding into the market, basic economics would suggest that the rising price should entice current owners to sell and realize their gains. Yet, the data reveals a fascinating psychological standoff. According to research from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a "super-majority" of Bitcoin holders are currently sitting on a colossal $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits. This means that a vast portion of the network acquired their coins at prices far below the current level and are deep in the green. In any other market, such a massive overhang of profit would be seen as a significant risk, a powder keg of potential sell pressure waiting to be ignited. But in the world of Bitcoin, it has become a fortress of conviction. Glassnode’s analysis concludes that the current price, even in the six-figure range, "is not compelling enough for investors to continue selling." This is a revolutionary insight into the mindset of the modern Bitcoin investor. Their price targets have shifted dramatically. They are not looking to sell at $120,000 or even $140,000. For many, these levels are seen as mere stepping stones on the path to a much higher valuation, one that properly reflects Bitcoin’s role as a global, non-sovereign store of value. Further research into profit-taking behavior confirms this trend. The amount of realized profit—that is, coins being sold at a gain—in the current cycle has yet to match the levels seen during the peak of the 2024 rally. This suggests that the holders who were willing to sell at those prices have already done so. The remaining cohort is composed of the most steadfast believers, the "diamond hands," who are holding out for a much more significant repricing. Some analyses suggest that the Bitcoin price would notionally need to rise another 30%, toward the $140,000 mark, just to reach a point where this cohort even begins to feel tempted to part with their holdings in a meaningful way. This creates a powerful reflexive loop: the less they sell, the less supply is available, and the more explosive the potential price move when demand continues to pour in. The Macroeconomic Perfect Storm The conviction of Bitcoin holders and the flood of institutional capital are not occurring in a vacuum. They are a direct response to a global macroeconomic environment that is creating a perfect storm for a hard, scarce asset. The primary driver of this is the unprecedented expansion of the global money supply. The M2 money supply—a broad measure of currency that includes cash, checking and savings deposits, and money market funds—has reached a record high. Governments and central banks around the world have engaged in years of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus, effectively printing trillions of dollars to prop up their economies. While often necessary in the short term, this relentless monetary expansion has a corrosive long-term effect: it debases the value of fiat currencies. As the supply of dollars, euros, and yen increases, the purchasing power of each individual unit decreases. In this environment, rational economic actors begin to search for a safe harbor, a place to protect their wealth from the slow-motion erosion of inflation. Historically, this role was filled by assets like gold. Today, a growing number of individuals, corporations, and even nation-states are turning to Bitcoin. Its mathematically enforced scarcity—a hard cap of 21 million coins that can never be altered—stands in stark contrast to the infinite printability of government-issued money. This narrative has been supercharged by the recent performance of the US dollar itself. The world’s reserve currency experienced a dramatic 10.8% drop in its worst first-half performance since 1973, signaling a potential shift in global currency dynamics. As the dollar weakens, assets priced in dollars become cheaper for foreign investors, and the appeal of a non-sovereign alternative like Bitcoin grows. This macroeconomic backdrop provides the fundamental "why" behind the Bitcoin trade. It is no longer just a technological curiosity or a speculative bet; it is increasingly viewed as an essential component of a diversified portfolio, a hedge against the very real risks of monetary debasement and geopolitical instability. It is this understanding that underpins bullish price targets that sit around $170,000 and beyond. Navigating the Uncomfortable Calm With such a powerfully bullish confluence of factors, the question remains: why has Bitcoin been seemingly stuck in a consolidation pattern, unable to break out and sustain a move into the higher price ranges? Why did the market see a wobble that brought the price down to $105,000, causing anxiety among newer entrants? The answer lies in the nature of market equilibrium. Even in the most ferocious bull market, there are always sellers. Miners, who must sell some of their newly minted Bitcoin to cover their operational costs, represent a constant source of supply. Early investors may take some profits to diversify their wealth. Short-term traders will try to play the ranges, and even some of the capital in the ETFs will inevitably be redeemed, forcing the funds to sell a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. The current price range below $120,000 represents the battleground where the relentless, programmatic buying from the ETF leviathan is meeting and absorbing this natural, daily sell pressure. The market is in a state of accumulation and consolidation, building a strong base of support before its next major move. The fact that crypto market sentiment has held steady, even during price dips and the start of the third quarter—a period historically known for its weak seasonality—is a testament to the market's newfound maturity. The "weak hands," or investors with low conviction, have likely been shaken out, leaving a stronger, more resilient base of holders. This period of sideways price action is likely to be deceptive. The historical seasonality of Bitcoin suggests that summer can often be a period of lackluster performance, lulling market participants into a state of complacency. The idea that Summer 2025 will "catch everyone off guard" stems from this dynamic. While the price chart may look boring, the underlying supply and demand forces are becoming ever more tightly coiled. The pressure is building, and the longer the market consolidates, the more violent the eventual breakout is likely to be. The Inevitable Collision The story of Bitcoin in 2025 is the story of an inevitable collision. On one side, you have the most powerful force of demand the asset has ever known: a fleet of Wall Street ETFs, led by the world's largest asset manager, programmatically buying Bitcoin every single day. This demand is structural, relentless, and here to stay. On the other side, you have the most convicted group of holders in Bitcoin’s history. They are a super-majority, sitting on over a trillion dollars in profit, who have explicitly signaled through their actions and on-chain data that they have no intention of selling at these prices. They are withdrawing their coins from the market at a historic rate, creating a supply desert. The dwindling reserve of Bitcoin on exchanges is the ticking clock in this grand drama. It is the visible measure of the supply shock in progress. Each day, the ETFs arrive in the market to fill their orders, only to find the shelves are increasingly bare. The deficit they create must be filled by prying coins from the diamond hands of long-term holders. But those holders have made their price clear, and it is not $120,000. Therefore, the current market is not in a state of calm, but in a state of profound tension. It is the quiet moment before the lightning strike. The forces of an institutional-grade demand shock and a historic holder-induced supply squeeze are on a direct and unavoidable collision course. The question is no longer if this tension will resolve, but when and with what magnitude. The great disappearance of Bitcoin from the open market is the final signal that the supply problem is no longer a distant forecast. It is here, and it is about to change everything.
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
1
7/2/25 - $sbet - Another way to juice sbet orange7/2/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SBET Another way to juice sbet orange - in this giddy money printer go brr expectation tape and back to ATH on the index, it's an interesting point to look for names where you'd own it... but where it might be non-obvious and where IV is high - as a point of reference, take $sbet. 1.5x mnav ETH treasury w/ some gaming ops, biggest treasury outside of eth foundation, eth is probably actually underwrite-able (not a word i know) from a convert/ perferred perspective, where a treasury *really* gets yield on it's stack - I can sell the $10 strike aug 15 calls for $1.8 rn (and have started doing this, most of that volume today is me lol) - point here is... 1/ i think in the next 6-18 mo. ETH will be probably $4-5k. does this mean it doesn't go to $1.5-2k in the meanwhile? and this thing could trade at 1x mnav in the immediate term? if that were the case, say $2.5k eth (so -20% plus or minus) and then 1.5x mnav to 1x mnav = another 30% on top of this. so you're looking at -50% (or more) so a $5/shr stock. would i buy it there? hell yeah. bottom w/ upside leverage w/o any expiry. it's like a call option that never expires at that point - but in the meanwhile... do i have conviction this thing apes higher to the teens? 20s? no way jose. - so i can buy a pile of shares here at $9.5, "sell" $10 strike for $1.8/shr and collect about 20% (1.8/9.5) for a month and a half. if thing goes to 20s... oh well, i am able to take bigger size at this stage than i'd otherwise be willing to take... bc my basis goes to $7.7/shr (9.5-1.8) and therefore my "downside" is a more reasonable 35% - "V 35% downside is horrendous" - lol - welcome to my probability mindset. I don't mind 20-40% max drawdown if i have visibility to multiple X's and also believe i would be adding in that drawdown instead of saying "shoot need to cut" ... and thinking it could do -60% or more on my basis. i don't ever like putting myself in a situation where i require more than 1x to breakeven - therefore, let's play the market marker game. sit on our hands for the next month and a half. collect some premium. wish the best to our friends at SBET but be a bit unconcerned about the ST price action V
NASDAQ:SBETLong
by VROCKSTAR
3