BTC going to the moon.... but when?BTC is showing signs of bearish divergence on many of the timeframes, but the bulls don't care. However, traders need to. Signs of divergence can eventually get follow-through, but not without a proper market structure. At the PA, divergences can be invalidated and disregarded. This would result in the trend being our friend.
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XAU/USD: More Bullish Move Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that after our last analysis, the price dropped to $3120, and then faced strong buying pressure, pushing it back up to the $3240 area! Gold is now trading in a critical zone for trend direction. If the price manages to hold above $3233, we can expect further bullish movement. This analysis will be updated with your support!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
SHIB: Watch this level!Trading Setup
If you’re considering trading SHIB, here’s a quick setup that may help you.
The idea is: Buy when the price breaks above $0.0000185 and take profits at the levels shown in the chart.
Targets:
1. $0.00002
2. $0.0000235
3. $0.000028
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BTC Hits New All-Time High: Is a $128K Blow-Off Top Next?Bitcoin's Meteoric Ascent: New All-Time Highs Fuel $128K "Blow-Off Top" Predictions Amidst Unprecedented Adoption
The digital gold rush of the 21st century is reaching a fever pitch. Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency, has not only shattered previous records but is now tantalizingly close to new, stratospheric all-time highs, with analysts eyeing a potential "blow-off top" as high as $128,000. This electrifying surge, which saw BTC climb to within 1.5% of new peaks as bullish sentiment decisively overcame final resistance, is underpinned by a confluence of factors: soaring institutional and retail adoption, particularly in the United States, booming ETF inflows, growing political and regulatory support, and a shifting macroeconomic landscape that increasingly favors non-traditional assets. As of May 21, 2025, Bitcoin has firmly established itself above the $109,000 mark, a testament to its resilience and burgeoning mainstream acceptance.
The recent price action has been nothing short of spectacular. Bitcoin bulls have been relentlessly "grilling sellers," pushing the price to historic milestones. On May 21, 2025, Bitcoin etched a new all-time high (ATH) above $109,000, a landmark achievement that notably placed 100% of BTC holders into profit. This surge saw Bitcoin's market capitalization briefly surpass that of e-commerce giant Amazon, a symbolic victory highlighting its growing financial clout. Specific figures around this period include a climb to a record $109,302, and another peak at a historic $109,500, demonstrating the intense buying pressure and bullish conviction in the market. Analysts are now recalibrating their upside targets, with many calling for $116,000 as the next significant milestone on the path to even loftier valuations.
This bullish momentum isn't occurring in a vacuum. It's the culmination of years of development, increasing understanding, and a series of pivotal events that have collectively propelled Bitcoin into the financial limelight.
The American Bitcoin Boom: Adoption Surpasses Gold, Institutions Dive In
One of the most compelling narratives driving Bitcoin's current rally is its explosive growth in the United States. A staggering 50 million Americans now own Bitcoin, a figure that notably surpasses the 37 million gold holders in the country. This demographic shift signifies a profound change in investment preferences, particularly among younger generations who are increasingly comfortable with digital assets. Bitcoin is no longer a niche interest for tech enthusiasts; it's becoming a recognized component of diversified investment portfolios across a broad swathe of the American population.
The institutional embrace within the US is equally, if not more, impactful. US firms now hold an astonishing 94.8% of the Bitcoin reserves held by publicly traded companies globally. This concentration underscores the confidence American corporations have in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, a hedge against inflation, and a potential source of significant returns. Furthermore, the United States is solidifying its position as the global epicenter of the Bitcoin industry, with 40% of all Bitcoin companies headquartered domestically. This robust ecosystem of miners, exchanges, wallet providers, and ancillary service companies fosters innovation and provides a strong foundation for continued growth.
The advent and subsequent success of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been a game-changer. These regulated financial products have opened the floodgates for a new wave of capital, allowing retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts without the complexities of direct ownership and custody. The "booming ETF inflows" are a direct contributor to the recent price surge, creating sustained buying pressure and signaling widespread market acceptance.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Regulatory Optimism
Beyond direct adoption, broader economic and political factors are playing a crucial role. The recent new all-time high of $109,000 was notably set just nine days after the US and China closed a 90-day trade agreement. This resolution eased economic uncertainty and market jitters that had previously weighed on global markets. In such an environment, assets perceived as hedges against traditional market volatility or fiat currency devaluation, like Bitcoin and gold, often thrive. Indeed, concurrent with Bitcoin's rise, concerns such as Japan's debt woes have contributed to gold surpassing the $3,300 mark, indicating a broader flight to alternative stores of value.
Furthermore, there's growing optimism around US regulations concerning cryptocurrencies. While the regulatory landscape is still evolving, recent pronouncements and actions suggest a move towards greater clarity and a more accommodative stance, rather than outright prohibition. This "growing political support" is crucial for long-term institutional commitment, as regulatory uncertainty has historically been a significant barrier to entry for larger, more conservative investors. The fact that Bitcoin climbed to a record of $109,302, breaching a previous high set around the time of a major political event like a presidential inauguration (specifically referenced as Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20 in a historical context for a previous ATH), often correlates with market sentiment interpreting political or regulatory shifts as favorable.
The "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" (BSR): A Paradigm Shift for National Economies?
An intriguing, albeit more speculative, concept gaining traction is the idea of a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" (BSR). While not yet a formal policy in any major nation, the discussion itself highlights Bitcoin's evolving perception from a purely speculative asset to one with potential strategic geopolitical and economic importance.
A BSR would involve a nation-state, such as the United States, acquiring and holding Bitcoin as part of its national reserves, much like it currently holds gold or foreign currencies. The rationale behind such a move could be multifaceted:
1. Hedging Against Fiat Devaluation: As central banks globally continue to engage in monetary expansion, concerns about the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies persist. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, offers a potential hedge against this inflation.
2. Participating in a New Financial System: If Bitcoin continues its trajectory towards becoming a globally recognized store of value or even a medium of exchange for certain international transactions, holding it in reserve would position a nation to participate actively in this emerging financial infrastructure.
3. Technological Leadership: For a country like the US, which already leads in Bitcoin company headquarters and corporate holdings, establishing a BSR could further cement its leadership in the digital asset space, attracting talent and capital.
4. Economic Resilience: In a future where digital currencies play a more significant role, a BSR could offer a degree of economic resilience and autonomy, reducing reliance on traditional financial systems or the currencies of other nations.
The implications of a major economic power like the US even seriously considering, let alone implementing, a BSR would be monumental for Bitcoin's legitimacy and price. It would signal ultimate institutional acceptance and could trigger a wave of similar considerations by other nations, creating immense demand for a limited supply of BTC. While the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Explained and What BSR Means for the US Economy" remains a topic of forward-looking discussion, its emergence in financial discourse is a testament to how far Bitcoin has come.
The Path to $128K: Understanding the "Blow-Off Top"
With Bitcoin having decisively broken past $109,000 and upside targets of $116,000 now in common parlance, the ultimate bull-case scenario being discussed is a "blow-off top" potentially reaching $128,000 or even higher.
A "blow-off top" is a chart pattern that signifies a steep and rapid price increase in an asset, often on high volume, followed by an equally sharp reversal. It typically occurs at the end of a prolonged bull market or a parabolic advance. The psychology behind it involves:
1. Euphoria and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): As prices accelerate, media attention intensifies, and stories of quick riches abound. This draws in a flood of retail investors who don't want to miss out on the gains.
2. Exhaustion of Buyers: The parabolic rise eventually becomes unsustainable. The last wave of enthusiastic buyers enters at or near the peak.
3. Smart Money Distribution: Experienced traders and institutions, who may have accumulated positions much lower, begin to sell into this heightened demand, taking profits.
4. Sharp Reversal: Once buying pressure is exhausted and selling pressure mounts, the price can fall dramatically as latecomers panic-sell and stop-losses are triggered.
Predicting the exact peak of a blow-off top is notoriously difficult. However, analysts use a combination of technical analysis (chart patterns, momentum indicators, Fibonacci extensions), on-chain data (network activity, holder behavior), and market sentiment to identify potential price targets and warning signs. The $128,000 figure is likely derived from such analyses, representing a significant psychological level or a projection based on previous market cycle behavior.
Navigating the Bull Market: Indicators for Identifying a Cycle Top
While the current sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, savvy Bitcoin traders and investors are always mindful of market cycles and the potential for corrections or trend reversals. The question, "Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top?" is one that prudent market participants constantly evaluate. Several indicators can help traders gauge whether a market might be overheating:
1. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This trend-following momentum indicator can show bearish divergences, where the price makes new highs, but the MACD fails to do so, signaling weakening momentum.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): An RSI reading above 70 is generally considered overbought, and readings above 80 or 90 in a strong bull market can signal extreme conditions, though Bitcoin can remain overbought for extended periods. Bearish divergences on the RSI are also key.
3. On-Chain Metrics (e.g., MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, SOPR):
o MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value): Compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap (the price at which each coin last moved). High Z-scores indicate the market cap is significantly higher than the average cost basis, suggesting the asset is overvalued and potentially near a top.
o Puell Multiple: Looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy – miners and their revenue. It divides the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value. High values suggest miner profitability is high compared to historical norms, which has sometimes coincided with market tops.
o Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): This indicates if holders are, on average, selling in profit or loss. Values significantly above 1 suggest holders are realizing substantial profits, which can increase sell pressure. A sustained drop below 1 after a peak can signal a shift in trend.
4. Logarithmic Growth Curves: Bitcoin's long-term price action has often respected logarithmic growth channels. When the price reaches the upper band of these channels, it has historically indicated a market top.
5. Funding Rates and Open Interest in Derivatives Markets: Extremely high positive funding rates on perpetual swaps indicate that an overwhelming number of traders are long and paying a premium to maintain those positions. This can signal excessive bullishness and a crowded trade, making the market vulnerable to a long squeeze if prices reverse. High open interest can also exacerbate volatility.
While Bitcoin is currently refusing to give up on its quest to revisit $108,000 (a level now surpassed) and beyond, concerns over a trend change, though perhaps quieter amidst the euphoria, are always present in the minds of seasoned investors. These indicators provide a more objective lens through which to assess the sustainability of the current rally.
The Road Ahead: Uncharted Territory with Immense Potential
As Bitcoin forges new all-time highs, it enters uncharted territory. The confluence of unprecedented US adoption, robust institutional investment via ETFs, a more favorable regulatory outlook, and supportive macroeconomic conditions has created a potent cocktail for price appreciation. The surpassing of Amazon's market cap, even if temporary, and the fact that 100% of BTC holders are in profit, are powerful psychological milestones that can fuel further confidence.
The predictions of a $116,000 interim target and a potential $128,000 blow-off top are no longer fringe theories but are being seriously discussed by mainstream analysts. The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is gaining more traction than ever, especially as traditional safe havens like gold also see increased interest amidst global economic uncertainties like Japan's debt situation.
However, the path is unlikely to be linear. Bitcoin's inherent volatility means that sharp corrections can and will occur, even within a broader uptrend. The "concerns over a trend change" will likely grow louder as prices reach more extreme levels, and profit-taking becomes more tempting. Investors should remain vigilant, utilize the available indicators to assess market conditions, and practice sound risk management.
In conclusion, May 2025 has marked a historic period for Bitcoin. Its surge above $109,000, driven by a powerful combination of fundamental adoption and favorable market dynamics, has set the stage for potentially even more dramatic price action. Whether the ultimate peak of this cycle is $116,000, $128,000, or another figure entirely, one thing is clear: Bitcoin has firmly cemented its place in the global financial landscape, and its journey is far from over. The coming weeks and months will be closely watched by investors worldwide as the world's preeminent cryptocurrency continues to redefine the boundaries of financial assets.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, based on the provided snippets, and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is highly speculative and carries a significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Bitcoin to touch the 236 next?4H timeframe
Bitcoin near-touched the ATH and currently we are yet to break above this level. Candle closes above the ATH could send BTC into price discovery however for now we should assume that it could be resistance.
Liquidity Zone @ 100,500
We could see a reaction to the 236 which is sat directly below the liquidity.
Microphone pattern formed during recent p.a.
I do think that if BTC is unable to succeed the previous ATH then we could see bearish price movement.
USDJPY – Potential Reversal Setup from Key Demand Zone
After several days of consistent bearish momentum, price action on USDJPY has finally tapped into a well-defined demand zone just below 144.40 – an area previously tested with strong bullish reaction.
I’m now anticipating a potential **Change of Character (CHOCH)** as price forms a temporary floor. The rejection wick near 144.10 gives a hint of buyer interest, with confluence from a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and prior liquidity sweep.
📍 **Entry:** Around 144.38
📈 **Target Zones:**
→ First Target: 146.00 (structure retest)
→ Final Target: 148.66 (major liquidity pool and previous high)
❌ **Invalidation:** Break below 143.70
If this move plays out, we could be looking at a solid **Risk-to-Reward above 3:1**. Patience now is key – I’ll wait for a strong bullish engulfing to confirm momentum shift before scaling in.
🧠 *Note:* Fundamentals (Fed tone + JPY weakness) and macro sentiment could serve as accelerators.
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Will BTC endure and continue to reach further highs?As we can see, the BTC price has broken the previous ATH and established a new one at $ 109,886, but here we have to see that we had a slight breakout and the price immediately returned below the previous peak. At this point, we should observe whether it will positively break out from the previous peak and whether it will stay above it so that it can gather energy for a strong move towards strong resistance at $ 130,000.
However, if we see a correction, it may first go down to $ 101,500, then we can see support at $ 96,000, and then we may have a drop to around $ 87,000.
When we look at the Stoch RSI indicator, we will see that despite the current increases, the indicator remains around the middle of the range, which could potentially give room for another upward move.
XAUUSD DESCENDING CHANNEL IN 15MXAUUSD CHART ANALYSIS IN 15M
Price Movement
The chart shows a descending channel (highlighted in blue), indicating a downtrend.
Gold price has been making lower highs and lower lows, consistent with a bearish pattern
Trend Analysis
The channel indicates that sellers are in control, pushing prices gradually lower.
Until there’s a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel, the bias remains bearish.
USDCAD Consolidation Within Bullish Flag – Targets 1.4130USDCAD is consolidating inside a descending flag structure following a strong impulsive rally earlier in May. The current pullback is orderly and corrective, indicating potential for continuation higher. If price breaks above 1.3960, this flag breakout could extend toward 1.4130 and possibly 1.4225. With CAD weakening on soft oil prices and USD regaining strength from yield-driven flows, the bias remains bullish while price stays above 1.3870.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Bullish flag forming after a strong rally
Support Zone: 1.3870–1.3900 → base of flag
Resistance/Breakout Zone: 1.3960–1.3980 → upper flag line
Structure:
Higher lows holding firm
Fib confluence near 1.3933 (23.6% retracement)
Target Levels:
1.4130 – 50% fib level + previous structure resistance
1.4225 – 61.8% fib zone from March–April high
📈 Bias: Bullish continuation on breakout
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD)
Supported by:
Higher bond yields
Fed expected to hold rates higher for longer
Safe-haven inflows post-Moody’s downgrade fading
USD Index recovering broadly across majors
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Oil prices softening due to global demand concerns (China slowdown, US inventories)
BoC likely done hiking — no fresh bullish catalysts
CAD correlation with crude oil adds downside risk if energy markets weaken further
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Break and close above 1.3960
Stop Loss: Below 1.3870 (flag support zone)
Targets:
TP1: 1.4130 (structure resistance + fib level)
TP2: 1.4225 (swing high + golden ratio)
⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch
If USD sentiment shifts (e.g., dovish Fed speaker) → breakout may fail
Crude oil rebound would support CAD and cap USD/CAD upside
False breakouts common near 1.3960 — wait for confirmation (strong candle close)
🧭 Conclusion
USD/CAD remains in a bullish consolidation phase with a clear continuation setup. A break above 1.3960 would confirm a flag breakout targeting 1.4130 and 1.4225. With the macro backdrop favoring the USD and energy-linked CAD weakening, this setup offers clean structure and potential for follow-through.
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
After a powerful bullish rally since the beginning of 2025, gold has entered a corrective phase
In the current price zone, we expect a temporary upward retracement, potentially offering short-term relief, before the downtrend resumes.
For a safer bearish entry, it's recommended to wait for a confirmed break below both the marked support zone and the ascending trendline to validate continuation to lower levels.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Deep Dive into Internet Capital Markets (ICM) - New Narrative Revolution or Speculation?
Internet Capital Markets (ICM) is an emerging concept in crypto, allowing developers and startups to raise capital directly from communities via blockchain and social platforms like X (formerly Twitter). ICM tokenizes ideas, apps, and projects, bypassing traditional intermediaries such as venture capitalists.
Key Concepts & Mechanisms of ICM
ICM is founded on decentralization and social dynamics:
Tokenization & Democratized Capital:
Any user can launch a token representing their idea using platforms like Believe.app, simply by posting on social media with specific tags (e.g., "$TICKER + project name"). This dramatically simplifies fundraising, reducing barriers and costs.
Bonding Curve Pricing:
Initial liquidity and token pricing are set automatically through a bonding curve mechanism, increasing token prices as demand grows.
Trading on DEX:
Tokens typically move to decentralized exchanges (e.g., Meteora) once achieving market caps around $100,000, boosting liquidity and investor accessibility.
By May 2025, over 9,000 tokens have launched, total market capitalization surpassed $350M, with trading volumes reaching $411.6M.
Market Leaders & Success Stories
Believe app:
Dominant ICM platform, with over 3,192 tokens launched and 107,078 traders.
$LAUNCHCOIN:
Native token of Believe app, achieving $250M market cap and 18% growth in 24 hours.
Other notable projects:
$DUPE: Aggregator for product analogues ($63M market cap)
$NOODLE: Crypto analogue of popular game agar.io ($3.1M market cap)
$GOONC, $BUDDY: Highly volatile, speculative tokens popular among traders.
Driving Factors Behind ICM’s Popularity
ICM’s rapid growth is fueled by:
Investment Democratization:
Eliminating geographical and financial barriers.
Speculative Potential:
Opportunities for substantial profits (up to 50,000% ROI in 24 hours).
Social Mechanics & Simplicity:
Viral growth via platforms like X (Twitter).
Solana's Technological Edge:
Low transaction fees ($0.00025) and high transaction speeds (up to 65,000 TPS).
ICM Prospects: Optimism vs Risks
Optimists foresee a revolutionary expansion of capital access, driving Web3 and dApp innovations. Pessimists, however, highlight risks:
Extreme Volatility:
Tokens like $NOODLE dropped 61% in 24 hours.
Regulatory Uncertainty:
Lack of clear regulations, especially in the US, poses significant startup risks.
Speculative Nature:
Critics label ICM as "meme coins under a new name," noting limited intrinsic value in many projects.
Long-term success hinges on sustainable projects emerging and clarity on regulatory frameworks.
Impact on Real World Assets (RWA)
ICM holds potential for reshaping tokenized real-world assets (e.g., real estate, bonds, art):
Positive Impacts:
Lower entry barriers, increased liquidity, and new tokenization models for intellectual property or future revenues.
Current Limitations:
Technological and regulatory constraints currently limit integration of complex RWAs with ICM.
Future Potential:
Over the next 3-5 years, integration could strengthen significantly, contingent upon regulatory clarity.
How to Profit from the ICM Trend?
Key earning strategies include:
Token Creation & Sales:
Launching tokens on platforms like Believe.app, earning up to 50% in trading fees.
Early-stage Investing:
Buying tokens pre-DEX launch, offering high-risk/high-reward potential.
Short-term Trading:
Exploiting token volatility on DEXs for rapid profits.
Participating in Airdrops:
Obtaining free tokens from emerging projects.
Infrastructure Development:
Building analytical tools and integrated wallets, attracting venture funding or tokenization.
Diversification, monitoring social engagement, and avoiding questionable projects are essential risk mitigation strategies.
Future Challenges & Opportunities
ICM faces notable challenges:
Regulation:
Uncertainty and potential legal sanctions remain significant risks.
Market Volatility:
Requires sophisticated analysis and cautious strategies.
Integration with AI:
Leveraging artificial intelligence for trading optimization and market analytics can offer substantial competitive advantages.
Navigating the landscape requires balancing innovation and regulatory compliance for sustainable growth.
Conclusion
Internet Capital Markets represents a revolutionary approach to capital formation, transforming traditional fundraising. Despite impressive growth and potential, careful navigation is needed due to high volatility and regulatory uncertainties. Platforms like Believe.app demonstrate model viability, yet long-term success will depend on achieving a balance between meaningful project value and clear regulatory frameworks.
ICM uniquely blends innovation and speculation. Time will tell whether it becomes foundational within the financial ecosystem or simply another speculative crypto bubble.
Best regards EXCAVO
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A decent day on the markets after the frustrating range being played early week. We said we expected the play to be between the 3210 and 3255 region with a break either side deciding the short term direction. We waited lower for the 3203-5 region early session, managed to get 3204 and then long on the red boxes which guided the way as well as our trusted algo Excalibur. Excalibur completed 4 Gold targets in a day with another insane pip capture. Well done team.
So now we have an open level above 3290-95 with our indicator starting to show the stretch upside. Rather than attempt long up here, we'll look higher for a potential RIP based on a clean set up, if we get that support is on the flip at 3255-60 which is the retracement level.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Bitcoin Is Printing Irregular CorrectionHello, Skyrexians!
Despite the negative comments that BINANCE:BTCUSDT will pump instead of my bearish prediction and Saylor's Bitcoin purchases I am going to follow my scenario - nothing has changed. Based on my experience price now is printing the most difficult shape of correction - irregular ABC.
In recent analysis I explained why we shall use now 12 hours time frame. On this time frame Awesome Oscillator shall cross zero line to finish correction. Target for irregular correction usually at 0.38 Fibonacci at $97.5k, but also can touch $95k with the wick.
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
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