Get started

Community ideas

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - $99,000 Would Really Piss People Off!When Technicals talk, I listen. Weakness is starting to show inside of a premium range after an attempt on all-time highs whilst Donald Trump made an announcement on Monday. As somebody who is pro-crypto, such speeches should strengthen the price of Bitcoin but the opposite happened. Smart individuals buy when there is panic in the marketplace and there is plenty of opportunity to dollar cost into BTC below FWB:88K but for the time being, $99k is the price point to keep an eye out for.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by LegendSince
2
Elliot Wave high time frame perspective - decisive momentFrom EW perspective i've got four things I'm looking at. First, a pump: the ABC's all set and ready to rip. Second, we could see the 96k POC get tagged before things keep going up – still time for that. Third, we might be looking at a bigger 4th wave correction, down around 77k, before that final 5-wave push upwards. And fourth, we could be seeing a truncated 5th wave right now, which means the correction afterwards would go deeper than 77k. 102k and 96k will be key support/resistence in my view.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by jccp_eu
1
BTCUSD Trading Plan & Strategy📊 BTC/USDT – Finalized Trading Plan & Strategy 📌 Current Market Overview Price: 104,500 USDT Trend: Short-term bearish correction from resistance. Structure: Change of Character (ChoCH) suggests potential downward move. 📉 Sell Setup (Limit Order) – High Probability Trade 🔹 Sell Limit: 105,800 - 106,000 (Strong Resistance Zone) 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 107,000 (Above key resistance) 🔹 Take Profit (TP): TP1: 102,500 TP2: 100,500 - 100,000 ✅ Why Sell Here? Resistance Zone: Multiple rejections at 106K. Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Indicating selling pressure. Fibonacci Level: 78.6% retracement near 106K. Strong Supply Area: Previous liquidity grab at 106K. 📈 Buy Setup (Limit Order) – Strong Demand Zone 🔹 Buy Limit: 100,000 - 100,500 (Support Zone) 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 99,000 🔹 Take Profit (TP): TP1: 103,000 TP2: 105,500 ✅ Why Buy Here? Key Psychological Support: 100K is a major demand zone. Fibonacci Support: 61.8% retracement of previous rally. Previous Breakout Zone: Likely to act as strong support. Possible Bullish Reversal: Price action suggests bounce potential. ⚡ Instant Trade (Short-Term Intraday Setup) 🔹 Sell Now at: 104,500 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 106,000 🔹 Take Profit (TP): 102,500 ✅ Why Sell Now? Bearish Confirmation: Weakness near resistance. Short-Term Rejection: Price struggling to break higher. Low-Risk Scalping Opportunity. 📊 Technical Indicator Confirmations ✅ EMA Analysis: Price rejecting near EMA resistance. ✅ Support & Resistance (SNR): 106K strong resistance, 100K strong support. ✅ Fibonacci Levels: 106K (78.6%), 100K (61.8%). ✅ Engulfing Candlestick Pattern: Bearish at key resistance. 🚀 Final Trading Advice & Execution Plan Sell Near 106K, Buy Near 100K for best risk-reward. Use Stop Loss & Risk Management to protect capital. Wait for confirmations before entering trades.
by NazriRich
1
Multi Asset Z-score based observer Mastering Mean Reversion: A Simple Yet Powerful observation If you’ve ever noticed that certain markets tend to “snap back” after making extreme moves, you’ve witnessed mean reversion in action. Mean reversion is one of the most powerful and reliable trading concepts in the market, and today, we’re going to break it down into simple, actionable steps that anyone can understand. We’ll walk through: ✅ Why mean reversion happens (using ES & YM as an example). ✅ How to measure when an asset is overextended or undervalued. ✅ A step-by-step strategy for making high-probability trades. ✅ A fully functional indicator that automates the process for you. By the end of this guide, you’ll have a full understanding of mean reversion and a systematic way to trade it successfully. 1️⃣ What Is Mean Reversion & Why Does It Work? 🔹 Example: S&P 500 (ES) vs. Dow Jones (YM) Imagine you’re watching ES (S&P 500 Futures) and YM (Dow Jones Futures). • Most of the time, these two markets move together because they represent similar economic forces. • If ES suddenly jumps higher while YM stays flat, we know that something is “off.” • Traders will look to short ES and buy YM, expecting them to move back in sync. This is mean reversion—assets tend to return to their normal relationship after short-term imbalances. 🔹 Why Do These Price Gaps Happen? • Sometimes a big fund is buying a large position in ES, pushing it higher, but other traders haven’t reacted yet. • A news event may have temporarily impacted one index but not the other. • Liquidity imbalances (large orders being executed) can create a temporary gap that quickly corrects. But these moves are often temporary—the bigger the deviation, the stronger the snapback! 2️⃣ How Do We Measure When a Market Is Overextended? 🔹 The Z-Score: A Simple Way to Spot Extreme Moves To quantify when an asset is stretched too far from its “normal” value, we use Z-score, which tells us: • How far the current price is from its average • Whether the move is statistically significant or just noise The formula is simple:  • If Z > 2, the spread is too wide, meaning ES or YM has likely moved too far apart. • If Z < -2, the spread is too tight, meaning they are overly compressed and should expand. • If Z = 0, they are back in balance. This is where we trade: entering at Z = 0 and exiting at Z = ±2! 3️⃣ The Simple Mean Reversion Trading Strategy Now that we understand how ES & YM move together, we can define a clear trading system. ✅ Step 1: Find A Trade Opportunity When do we enter a trade? • When the spread between ES & YM returns to normal (Z = 0). • This means that ES & YM have been out of sync but are now returning to balance—this is the moment we step in. 📌 Example: • If ES was moving faster than YM and the spread was wide (Z > 2), we wait for ES to cool down and meet YM again at Z = 0. • We enter a trade buying one index and selling the other. ✅ Step 2: Exit the Trade When the Spread Becomes Overextended When do we take profits? • When the spread stretches too far again (Z = ±2). • At this point, ES & YM are once again out of sync, meaning the trade has played out. 📌 Example: • If we bought ES and sold YM at Z = 0, we exit when Z reaches +2 or -2. • This ensures we capture the full move without overstaying our trade. 4️⃣ How Our Indicator Automates This Strategy To make things 100% systematic, we’ve built an indicator that automatically identifies these trading signals. 📌 Features of the Indicator ✅ Tracks the Z-score of the spread between ES & YM (or any two correlated assets). ✅ Prevents bad trades using a rolling correlation filter (ensures the assets are still moving together). ✅ Filters out extreme volatility using a relative volatility index (RVI) (ensures one asset isn’t much more volatile than the other). ✅ Only allows one trade at a time (avoiding unnecessary overtrading). 📌 Trading Rules Using the Indicator ✔ Enter a trade when Z = 0 ✔ Exit when Z reaches ±2 ✔ Avoid trading if the correlation is too low (<0.5) ✔ Avoid trading if one asset is 2.5x more volatile than the other This makes mean reversion completely mechanical and removes emotions from trading. 5️⃣ Why This Works & The Logic Behind It 🔹 Market Mechanics Behind the Strategy • Market makers and institutions constantly balance index exposure—they buy the underperforming asset and sell the outperforming one. • Algorithmic trading firms detect arbitrage opportunities and force spreads back to equilibrium. • Traders overreact in the short term, pushing prices too far, but the market eventually corrects itself. 🔹 The Psychology of Mean Reversion Trading • Retail traders tend to chase breakouts, which often fail. • Smart money trades against extreme deviations, profiting from reversion. • This strategy exploits human emotional biases by systematically fading overextended moves. 6️⃣ Conclusion: A Complete, Data-Driven System This indicator has successfully quantified every property of mean reversion, creating a mechanical, repeatable trading system that: ✅ Identifies mispricings in correlated assets (ES & YM) ✅ Ensures trades are only taken when conditions are optimal ✅ Removes emotional decision-making and automates execution 📌 Final Thought: Markets will always have inefficiencies—our job as traders is to define, measure, and systematically exploit them. With this indicator, we’ve done exactly that.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by tacentsgr8
1
ETH/USDT | 4-Hour Rejection SetupThis ETH/USDT 4-hour chart highlights a potential short setup at a key supply zone and trendline resistance: Entry: $3,308.15, anticipating rejection from the descending trendline and order block (OB) zone. Stop-Loss: Placed at $3,370.88, above the OB zone for risk mitigation. Take-Profit: Targeting the $3,147.00 level for potential gains. The confluence of the OB zone and trendline resistance increases the probability of a price reversal, making this a well-structured trade. Confirmation from volume and candlestick patterns is recommended before entering.
Short
by cRyPt0N008
1
Bitcoin Looks Shortable, But I’m Staying Out—Here’s WhyBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is presenting a textbook short setup. The composition on the 4-hour timeframe looks nearly perfect for a short trade, and for the day, one could craft a compelling shortable strategy. However, despite my analysis, I am making the rare decision not to enter this trade. The short setup: a perfect storm? From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is flashing bearish signals. Momentum indicators are showing weakness, volume profiles suggest exhaustion, and key resistance levels seem to be holding. In a vacuum, this setup looks ideal for a profitable short position. But trading isn’t just about technical analysis—it’s about understanding the broader market psychology and risk dynamics. The risk of shorting bitcoin right now The reason I’m sitting this one out is simple: betting against Bitcoin is like betting against the entire world. 1. The Supply Squeeze Effect – The long-term macro trend for BTC is that supply is constantly decreasing. With halvings reducing new issuance and institutions accumulating, the fundamental picture favors long-term scarcity. 2. Everyone Wants a Dip to Buy – Shorting BTC means betting that people won’t step in to buy the dip. However, history has shown time and time again that Bitcoin has a dedicated base of believers who aggressively accumulate whenever there’s weakness. 3. “No Bitcoin Left” Narrative – The idea that eventually there will be no more BTC available for easy purchase is gaining traction. In such an environment, shorting is not just risky—it’s dangerous. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade It’s frustrating to see a clear short setup and yet hold back from executing. But trading is not just about being right—it’s about managing risk. And in this case, the risk of being on the wrong side of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory outweighs the short-term setup. There’s an old saying: “The best trades are sometimes the ones you never make.” Today, this is one of those moments. For now, I’ll watch from the sidelines. But if Bitcoin proves me wrong and drops anyway, I won’t have any regrets—I’ll just be reminded that in trading, discipline is more valuable than being right.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by themr-im
1
XAU/USD 4H Analysis: Bullish Momentum Towards $2,780?📊 XAU/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Bullish Momentum 🚀💰 📌 Key Observations: 🔹 Current Price: $2,754.16 (+0.19%) 🔹 Support Zone: $2,740 - $2,750 (Previous resistance turned support ✅) 🔹 Resistance Zone: $2,780 (Next potential target 🎯) 🔹 200 EMA: $2,687.43 (Price is above = Bullish signal 📈) 🔹 Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken past a key level and might retest before moving higher 🔄📊 📉 Potential Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Case: If price holds above $2,750, we could see a rally towards $2,780+ 🚀 ❌ Bearish Case: If price drops below $2,740, we might see a correction back to $2,720 ⚠️ 🔥 Conclusion: Gold is showing strong bullish momentum and may continue its uptrend towards $2,780+ if it sustains above the breakout level! Keep an eye on support at $2,750 for confirmation. 👀💎 Would you like further indicators or a different timeframe analysis? ⏳📊
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MrStellanSight
1