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Pairstrading

Two tempting short setups — but one is hiding real dangerWhich pair would you short? We’re looking at JCPB/BAB and AGG/GTO , both showing positive deviation and riding the upper Bollinger Band. At first glance, both look ripe for a short… but dig deeper, and you'll see very different stories. 🔹 JCPB/BAB Chart: Low ADX, balanced DI+ / DI− → classic setup for a mean-reversion short. But the last daily candle is a strong bullish bar — big, green, and decisive. This could be the start of a breakout , and shorting into fresh upside momentum is dangerous. Looks neutral — but hides bullish potential. 🔸 AGG/GTO Chart: Clear uptrend: DI+ dominates, price marching upward. Also touching upper Bollinger Band, so yes — shorting here is fighting the trend. But at least the risk is obvious , and you can frame the trade accordingly. Transparent trend = measurable risk. 🧠 Bottom line: JCPB/BAB may seem safer — but that green candle changes everything. AGG/GTO is clearly trending — risky to short, but less deceptive. 👇 So, if you had to short one of these — which would it be? Drop your take below. Let’s hear your reasoning.
AMEX:AGG
by YoavShachak
What is Bitcoin ‘Pairs Trading’? (Example: ETH/BTC)This is for anybody who wants to sell some Bitcoin but is still bullish crypto. 🚀 It’s also if you’re neutral on crypto but think Bitcoin is overvalued vs other tokens. It’s also just if you’re just interested to see a way to apply a pairs trading strategy . In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, Bitcoin just broke over $100k - No more waiting for the HODLRS!! Naturally after hitting this massive milestone, some traders are going to be thinking about taking profits. And if they’re thinking it, some of them are going to be doing it. But let’s forget about selling for a moment, are you really buying more BTC when it just hit $100k and it's up ~150% this year? So even if there is not more active selling interest, there’s probably less buying interest. I think you’d be mad (or very brave) to bet against Bitcoin. BUT Are these scenarios possible? Bitcoin trades sideways for a while after hitting $100k Alt season kicks in and other cryptos play catchup If you think yes to at least one of these, my team and me have been looking at a pairs trade What is pairs trading? Pairs trading in crypto is a market-neutral trading strategy that involves taking a long position in one cryptocurrency and a short position in another, based on the assumption that their historical price relationship will revert to the mean. The point is to profit from the relative price movement between the two assets, i.e. not the absolute ups or downs of one asset like Bitcoin. ETH/BTC I put this crypto pair this way around - I’m not sure if you’re meant to - it just kind of reminds me of EUR/USD in forex trading. So as a reminder, ETH/BTC is Ethereum’s token Ether priced in Bitcoin. When Ether outperforms Bitcoin it goes up and when Ether underperforms Bitcoin, it goes down. So it doesn’t actually matter if Bitcoin goes up, down or sideways, if you’re trading ETH/BTC - what matters is what one does relative to the other. Well this thing has been going down a lot! Until recently. Going back to the idea of pairs trading - the thesis here is that the Ethererum/Bitcoin price ratio has dropped to bargain levels and could be about to recover. I’m not going to lie to you - there are a lot of sore hands out there from trying to catch this falling knife! But this rebound off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-21 rally has caught our attention. Dropping to the daily chart, can you see how 0.4000 has acted like a magnet to the price both from above and below? 0.4 is our line in the sand for long positions. Equally, our risk is well defined in this setup. A drop back under the 61.8% Fib level around 0.32 means the idea isn’t working and it's time to get out and let Bitcoin do its thing! How to trade it Specific entries and exits depend on your personal risk tolerance, but broadly there are THREE methods here: 1. Crypto-to-Crypto Spot Trading Trade ETH directly for BTC (or vice versa) on a cryptocurrency exchange. This is straightforward and involves holding the actual assets. 2. CFD Trading (Contracts for Difference) Speculate on ETH/BTC price movements using CFDs without owning the underlying cryptocurrencies. This allows for leverage and the ability to short-sell. 3. Spread Trading Buy ETH and simultaneously short BTC (or vice versa) with equal dollar value to profit from their relative price movement while minimizing exposure to overall market trends. But that’s just how we are seeing things? Do you think this is bananas, or could we be onto something? Please let us know in the comments Cheers! Jasper. Chief Market Analyst, Trading Writers
Education
by jasperlawler
ZSL/JDST: Potential Long OpportunityZSL/JDST pair is signaling a Long position at the close of yesterday, supported by multi indicators, suggesting a promising opportunity. ADX : Indicates no trend at present, and a quick look at the daily chart confirms it. Correlation : remains very high in the last few weeks. Close price : closed below lower BB. Historical test : I would be happier with more historical opportunities in the last few months to test, but generally it seems okay.
AMEX:ZSLLong
by YoavShachak
Trade Recap: MEDP & LSCC - 24/4/24 to 25/4/24Market Context and Indicators (Closing of 23/4/24): Directional Movement Index (DMI): * DI+: 42.59 * DI-: 11.53 * ADX: 19.75 (indicating a weak trend) Stochastic Oscillator: * %K: 94.34 * %D: 98.11 (both in the overbought territory) Correlation: * MEDP & LSCC: 0.8852 (strong positive correlation) Trade Information: MEDP Position: * Position: Short * Entry Price: $415.00 * Exit Price: $406.00 * Duration: 24/4/24 morning to 25/4/24 mid-day LSCC Position: * Position: Long * Entry Price: $70.39 * Exit Price: $72.35 * Duration: 24/4/24 morning to 25/4/24 mid-day Analysis and Strategy: Given the strong positive correlation of 0.8852 between MEDP and LSCC, paired with the overbought levels of %K and %D on the Stochastic Oscillator, we identified a potential reversal opportunity. The ADX at 19.75 suggested a weak trend, which further supported the hypothesis of an imminent price correction. Trade Outcome: * MEDP: Achieved a successful short trade with a profit of $9.00 per share. * LSCC: Achieved a successful long trade with a profit of $1.96 per share. These trades exemplify the effectiveness of leveraging correlation and technical indicators to capitalize on market movements. Key Takeaways: Utilize Correlation: Understanding the correlation between assets can provide insights into potential price movements. Monitor Indicator Levels: Overbought and oversold conditions, combined with trend strength indicators, can highlight profitable trading opportunities. Adapt to Market Conditions: Weak trends, as indicated by ADX, often present good reversal trading opportunities. Stay tuned for more trading ideas and market insights!
NASDAQ:MEDP
by YoavShachak
Pairs Trading Strategy. Two instruments in one chart We seek the development of a strategic chart indicator capable of visually concealing differentials between two financial instruments on a singular chart. Presently, we utilize a conventional approach whereby one instrument is opened and juxtaposed with another, resulting in the observation of two distinct lines. To enhance the efficacy of pairs trading, a hedge strategy entailing the purchase of one instrument and simultaneous sale of another correlated instrument, we endeavor to implement a more precise method wherein both instruments' disparities are represented as a singular line, candle chart, or similar graphical representation.
NYSE:VShort
by VladRibockins
1
MH Indicator on GBP/USD Vs. EUR/USD: Intra-day case study5-trade days (26th October 2022 to 01st November 2022), the MH (Market Hedge) Indicator was used to spot the Buying/Selling opportunity in the most correlated currency pairs of the World. In case of pairs trading one asset (GBP/USD) is bought/sold and simultaneously the other asset (EUR/USD) is sold/bought. In Currency trade, the most widely used leverage is 1:100, however, in the present case study, the leverage ratio was kept 1:50 (to be safer). Results: ROI was 57.26% in total of all the trades closed as encircled in the Chart. Out of the total 20 closed trades, only one was closed with losses (only $ 1.67 USD), highest profit from one trade was $ 7.38 USD, closed at 8:30 pm on 28th October 2022. Hence, you may assume the Risk-Reward ratio as 1:20 (0.05). Happy trading with MH Indicator Team, InvestSystemic
by InvestSystemic
Ethereum vs Bitcoin! Let's have at it!Hey TradingView Traders, Investors and buddies! I hope this idea comes at you having found yourself having a blessed weekend and a wonderful day! Let’s dive in together as the two guerillas of ‘new money’ wage some ideological war throughout the publication below. The term "Flippening" refers to the hypothetical moment of Ethereum (ETH) overtaking Bitcoin (BTC) as the biggest cryptocurrency. It may seem outrageous to think Ethereum will overtake the Bitcoin market cap, but let's go over the logic on why there is probability of this occuring. Let’s dissect some fundamental headwinds for ETH vs Bitcoin by exploring the development of their networks current upgrades: Fuel Fees. Under the current system, users send what’s known as a gas fee to miners as payment for transactions to be verified, in a kind of auction. Minders in current proof of work complete transactions by using computing power to solve puzzles on the network which create crypto and receive a piece of the fuel payment. Eth however has seen rampant growth, especially due to NFTs popularity and this is made evident with the block sizes consistently being near full. When the network gets busy the auction system of fuel fees enable users to bid up their transaction to essentially jump in que which leads to increased costs within the network. Solution. EIP-1559 will address this issue during the “London hard fork”. With the new update the gas fees will be automatically determined with a base fee which will fluctuate according to network congestion. At this point an ETH user can simply compensate the miners with a “tip” if they need to jump in que. This isn’t the “end all, be all” solution, but as far as favorable fundamental tailwinds, the network will “burn” a chunk of the gas fee. This is essence ‘deflationary’ for eth. Bitcoin has gotten a lot of favor for having a ‘fixed’ supply, but if ETH continues to increase in popularity we could eventually see that more ether gets burned then generated for miners. I am of the humble opinion that this will result in a rise in the price of ether. Additional Fundamental news – Eth 2.0 I have come across a great deal of misinformation about ETH 2.0, and a few points that I would like to clarify is first with a simple ‘visual’. I once heard a psychologist say Sigmond Freud constructed a vast room of clarity when it came to psychology while Carl Jung excavated a mansion around that that room. In many ways ETH 2.0 is being built around ETH and simply will absorb it within the network. This seems very practical as it will make the transition very easy for users, and node operators. ETH 2.0 will make the platform radically swifter, more scalable by upgrading the mechanics of the network. The two biggest upgrades will be the transition of Proof of Work like Bitcoin to Proof of Stake like Cardano. Bitcoin has miners competing to solve complex puzzles and they are then provided block rewards. As Turncoat T(M)usk (/sarc) has accurately stated Bitcoin energy consumption has skyrocketed. With the conversion to Proof of Stake ETH will validate transactions and ‘mine’ using the number of coins they are holding and willing to offer in essentially what amounts to an ‘escrow account’. This will colossally reduce the impact on the environment along with not only energy consumption but as Vitalik mentioned on the Lex Fridman podcast, hardware consumption as well. Each Ether node operator has to stake 32 ether and then receive rewards. They mentioned on the podcast that this is actually MORE secure then Bitcoin as an attack on the network would costs more than the collective value of all stakes that had been submitted in the beacon chain in December – they mentioned essentially it would costs greater than $15 Billion Dollars’ worth of ETH. The second upgrade will be “sharding” which was also mentioned in the podcast and within many research papers and articles. This will essentially entail new networks running parallel blockchains within the network. Vitalik himself described it as essentially taking a random 100 node operators and delegating them to come to consensus on a certain block, and then after they are all in agreement they are broken up into a new random sampling to come to consensus on a new block. Once they block has come to consensus it is “signed/authenticated” and linked to the main beacon chain. This will make it radically more efficient, reduce costs, increase scalability and improve the user experience and the experience of those staking the product. The users staking receive passive interest on their underlying deposit in the “escrow” account. The benefits in conclusion will be energy/hardware consumption plummeting, more efficiency, a swifter more scalable network, a deflationary product that is burning ETH and rewards for those passively operating nodes which will encourage them to “stay long” to reap the rewards. Bitcoin on the other hand is working on adding “the Lightening Network: as a second layer to the Bitcoin network which will enable transactions peer-to-peer off network “off chain transactions”. This has been in development by Thaddeus Dryha and Joseph Poon since 2015, and will be important for emerging markets especially. The benefits to the lightning network will be increased transaction time, and decreased costs for transactions. The latency in the network which occurs when the network attempts to process simultaneous transactions has led to higher transaction fees as miners take longer to validate transactions. Also, participants can sometimes pay a higher fee to have their transactions processed faster very similar to ETH to essentially jump in que. Bitcoin's Lightning Network is supposedly going to help improve the processing times, build scalability, and lower the network's transaction fees. When the lightning network is in full swing the vision is for users to transfer Sats between each other without charges directly from digital wallets off-chain. Taking transactions ‘off-chain’ will improve the congestion ‘on-chain’ and will reduce the costs and improve the processing time. There is a great deal of criticism about this upgrade. The primary criticism is that it will not actually solve the transaction fee issue. Although the lightning network allows payments between two parties, an opening transaction or deposit must be made via on-chain. The two parties then can process multiple transactions between each other, but once the bill has been settled, they need to record a closing transaction for the settled amount on the blockchain. There is a separate routing fee to transfer payments between channels. Since the fees for the lightning network are quite low, in theory, it should attract more participants. However, if the fees are so low for the routing of payments between nodes, there might not be any incentive for the nodes to facilitate the payments. Another criticism is if there is congestion created through a malevolent attack. The idea originator Dryja himself stated, “forced expiration of many transactions may be the greatest systemic risk when using the lightning network.” The final criticism is that we still are not addressing the rampant energy consumption of Bitcoin. I know proponents like Saylor are justifying this as essentially “well the internet itself uses a lot of energy”, “we want a lot of energy and costs associated with keeping the cleanest money in the world safe.” I will not dispute Saylor, but I also would certainly not call Bitcoin “clean”. We will see with the ETH 2.0 upgrade the energy cost reduce by 99% according to research papers. I have heard an analogy that if Bitcoin is consuming the energy of the city of all of London, following ETH 2.0 upgrade, Eth will be consuming the energy of a single tenant in an apartment in London. The final comment I will make is simply the utility of the two financial products. ETH enables smart contracts, BTC enables ‘wealth transfers peer-to-peer.’ I will also say one benefit BTC has over ETH is that it is more decentralized than ETH is, and hopefully some of you can comment and add additional benefits that surely I may be missing. Simply put, ETH is “smart money” and BTC is supposedly a “store of value” – personally though I rotated 99% of my BTC into ETH about 8 weeks ago and have happily not looked back. This conversion was not because of simply the better upgrades instore for ETH, but rather due to Technical Analysis. So let's peek at some TA on the daily so you can see the prices of each product at the moment of this idea being written: In the green corner we have ETH at $2,688: In the red corner we have BTC at $36,034 Lets simply look at the trends associated with Market Dominance. We can clearly see below ETH above the EMA ribbon with the ribbon pointing up in a bullish trend. We can clearly see below BTC below the EMA ribbon with the ribbon pointing down in a bearish trend of market dominance. Final chart is a weekly ETC/BTC pair. I will state plainly that before looking at ETH overtaking the BTC dominance please notice the increase in volume and the trend as user growth has been exploding. Regardless of where you park your wealth I think good things are in store for both of these financial products. I know many are very passionate about their favorite project, and I welcome competing ideology! The TradingView Community is remarkable and I have great respect for all you brilliant minds that provide new paradigms and perspectives. I certainly may be missing some key points so correct me if I am wrong, or let me know which other project you think is better than even these two that I should explore next. If you enjoyed this content please be sure to give it a like so other traders get a chance to digest this and add their expertise. In a spirit of abundance I wish nothing but great fortunes upon you dear friends!
CRYPTOCAP:ETH
by ZenMode
12