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Copper - Did Social Media Tell You To Long The CCP Again?They call copper "Doctor Copper" because it's said to forecast the overall world economic conditions on account of being tightly wed to manufacturing. Well, what people are really yammering about with that over the last 20 years is whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is healthy, and the world by proxy being healthy because it tied itself to the most heinous regime in history, the one responsible for the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the accompanying organ harvesting and genocide. Unfortunately for all the blind bulls, the early 2021-2022 price action was a pretty good indication of a top, and that top is really confirmed by the fact that since October of '22, this bounce has been pretty weak, and starting this month, with all the drama surrounding the slow collapse of the Chinese economy, took out the previous two months' lows. Monthly shows you that August price action took both the July and June lows. Like, that's not the kind of "signal" you want to see to get long for a new all time high. When something is retracing to take out major highs, you want to see lows rarely violated with something of a freight train towards the old highs. Weekly bars show us something of a subtle pattern where it looks like it's just taken some lows and is consolidating and continually flirting with going back up. But in reality the market makers are, most likely, just selling more under the previous $4.00 area. And if that's really true, it means another gap down is imminent, especially after an entire quarter of ranging. If you ask me, the first area that you can look for a long that is more than a scalp on copper is under $2.8, which is a critical pivot from September. And a more likely target in the next 12 months is the $2.00 mark, which was barely swept out in the COVID drama. The reality is, my friends, the Chinese Communist Party is going to fall overnight in our lifetimes. Not five or ten years from now. But very shortly, and everything is going to change. Whether that is caused by Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP to protect himself and China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order as it uses Taiwan as a soft proxy war, or because the whole world collapses under the results of the persecution of Falun Dafa, since everyone's been going to Shanghai to worship the toads and the Devil Red to get financial benefits. This is the danger. The danger is imminent. But copper trades painfully slowly, so if you want to do this you have to have long duration, ignore the noise, and be willing to suffer some drawdown. China under the CCP is never going to recover. Things are never going to be okay ever again. Things will be okay once mankind returns to tradition. But there won't be an international stock market like this anymore that day.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Gold - The Tea Leaves Say: More Downside On Deck3.5% is a lot in gold, and that's about the range of the total landslide we've been through the entirety of August so far. It's the kind of pattern where goldbugs and USD collapse narrative nerds go long and go long or hodl and hodl but the price never goes up. In my last call on gold from the beginning of July, I warned that $2,000 was a death trap. That call was pretty successful, coming just a few dollars shy of the target, abeit it was because the next month's futures contract settled some 2% higher. Gold - $2,000 Is a Death Trap And with the index markets at large, I caution that Nasdaq not breaking 15,000 is actually a real bull trap QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early? With gold, geopolitical risks are heightened because Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he has yet to throw away bought a lot of gold, and at relatively high prices, according to media reports at least. And thus, because of this, a form of subtle on-the-low economic sanctions against Xi and/or the CCP can be to devalue the price of gold, which puts the central bank in a bind. And this is a real problem for China right now with all the other economic catastrophes that land one after another, and the flooding, and the instability, and the posturing of the International Rules Based Order about war/invasion via Taiwan. The CCP won't invade Taiwan. But China might get invaded by the IRBO via Taiwan. You might not believe it. But give it some sober thought. Tacticians are tacticians for a reason. Hitting from the shadows and blind spots is a real useful thing. But for Xi, he can always weaponize the 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa that was launched on July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin against the entire world. Because the whole world has been going to Shanghai to train under the Jiang faction for economic and social benefits. Which means a lot of closet skeletons. Which means a lot of data dumps can serve as weapons delivered to international media in the future. Anyways, here's the call, friends. Gold is obviously going down and will go down farther. It really looks like it's seeking at least the short term lows, which means $1,900 is longzo-gonzo. And so on a dump from where we're at at time of posting to, say $1,850, you're getting 5% on a very safe short. You can short the hole. And 5% is a lot of money on gold. Probably only at $1,850 can we look for reversal longs towards new all time highs. But with how lethargic gold has been, we may very well just have seen the top on the re-run to $2,080.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LordWrymouth
2
GOLD Phase 3 Failure - Time for LIFTOFFIf you understand price patterns, one of the most important is what I call the Excess Phase Peak pattern. You see this pattern in up trends and at the peak/start of breakdowns in price. One thing that is very critical to understand about this pattern is the failure of Phase-3 usually prompts another wave higher. At this point, Gold has stalled out near dual support and may start a very aggressive upward price trend as we near the APEX of the Pennant/Flag formation. My research suggests an upward move (above $1870) is very likely to confirm the upper flag channel. Then price will likely stall before attempting a bigger breakout trend. What this means is.. Just like in 2003-05, gold began a "melt up" phase after the DOT COM bubble and the early US economic recovery. That melt-up phase culminated in a breakdown event (GFC 2008-09). Afterward, Gold skyrocketed higher (2011) My interpretation is that Gold is acting just like the 2004~2007 MELT UP rally phase and will likely increase another 85% from current levels - yup $3800+ Gold is on the way. Then, we enter the BIG RALLY PHASE after 2025 or so. Follow my research.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Silver SI1 - $35 Is as Far Away as SaturnOne of the most dangerous things about what is going on in the world today, and thereby the markets, is that the middle and lower classes of society are being directly targeted. There are different forms that the Marxist principle of "Redistribution of Wealth" takes. Decades ago, it took the form of the "scum of society" being mobilized by the Communist Party to invade and occupy places such as farmland. Then, the evil regime would let the anarchists hold the land for a few years, before ultimately sending in the military to slaughter them and take it for themselves. This is what "communism" and its precursor "socialism" are really all about, and you'd be wise to reject the entire thing if you want nary a hair of a future. In recent history, we saw a manifestation of this scheme when the Antifa and Black Lives Matter anarchist groups destroyed property unchecked during the "Summer of Love" riots. That property, which previously belonged to small business owners, often had insurance claims denied and was scooped up on the cheap by large corporations. In present history, the establishment is simply using a combination of the marketplace and "inflation" to achieve the same ends. The problem for silver/gold/platinum bulls is that much of the reason you are bullish is predicated on the narrative disseminated to you that "the dollar is going to go bust because the FEDERAL RESERVE keeps PRINTING MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR and what happens when we can't SERVICE OUR NATIONAL DEBT ANYMORE?!" This is all true, but you should really give it some thought: in the age of computers, social credit, digital identity, and central bank digital currencies, did you really think that the answer to this problem lied in trading metal for rice and flour like we did in traditional times? You should always remember that the markets can, and will, remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. Some people turned all of their cash into silver and gold, and a bunch of canned fish and beans, waiting for the Mad Max days. Well, what lies ahead is a painful rout on consumer commodities, personal debt, and personal incomes that will leave people desperate and in need of cash liquidity to survive. And in order to get that cash liquidity, they'll have to sell the silver bars they paid $25-30 for over the course of the last two years back to the fence at prices like $7 or $8. To be clear: if high prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. natural gas, oil, corn, wheat, prices will go UP. If low prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. silver, gold, bonds, prices will go DOWN. It's going to look something like this (disclaimer: I'm no artist.) And although you might think to yourself something like "single digit silver again? What a buying opportunity," or "Lmao it'll never drop that far" you should bear in mind this is only true if it bounces in two days back to new highs like it did during "Coronavirus Disease 2019" hysterics, and it'll "drop that far" exactly because retail is thinking "it'll never drop that far" and will fancy themselves brilliant to HELOC and rent a dump truck at $16 and $12, only to get crushed. If prices are depressed over the long term you won't feel it's very fun to spend money on a bunch of metal that tarnishes brown if you leave it merely sitting on your desk. I have some. I really like it. But it tarnishes brown while sitting on my desk. Even a dollar store fork doesn't do that. After retail and the middle class have totally capitulated their spot metals, then, and only then, will we see $35, then $50, then three digit silver. Of course, this assumes that this society can last that long. And although it can't, the sociopaths on Wall Street will continue with their plans even as the stars in the sky explode before our very eyes. In the meantime, you should be clear that this is no dip to buy. Silver has no price action to make at $21 until a major reversal, which is not on the horizon, and it is not going to double bottom in any meaningful way at $18. Ironically you can still blindly short this and if your leverage isn't horrific and your timing isn't worse, you'll make some good money.
COMEX:SI1!
by LordWrymouth
Paladium One (NKORF) + Paladium1! Futures LONGTERM wildcard!A comparison chart to ponder considering the future price of PGMs as well as geopolitical risk in Finland. I like it as a wild card PGM mining play. LONGTERM. Hopefully things resolve themselves or the problem stays put. Seems like without a helping hand Putin is stuck in the sand. But about the chart - I like the level we are at to begin accumulating. TIMELINE: 3-7 YRS. High risk that mellows to reward, with a long enough timeline, at least 50% and most likely 150%. But who knows? I sure hope I do.
NLong
by thebrooksbirdclub
Gold Dips, Finds Strong SupportGold has retraced past all of the support levels discussed yesterday, finally pivoting off 1759. We have since gotten support from this level and are testing 1777, an auspicious level, from below. We do appear to be forming a bull wedge underneath this level so anticipate a breakout. If this is the case, then the next targets will be in the 1780's, 1784 and 1789 to be specific. 1795 would be the final target, just below the value area between 1795 and 1815. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, so we wll require more momentum to break out definitively.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
1