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Palantir

Palantir (PLTR): In-depth Fundamental and Technical AnalysisPalantir is a mysterious company that helps governments and corporations integrate their data, decisions, and operations into one platform. They use big data and machine learning technology to offer solutions in both the public and private sector. While it has never been confirmed by the firm itself, it is said that Palantir played a significant role in catching Osama Bin Laden. In this post, I'll be going over Palantir's fundamentals, financials, and technicals, in order to assess whether this company is a good buy. This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. Background - Palantir’s founder is none other than Peter Thiel. - During his Paypal days, the company faced a crisis due to a scam led by the Russian mob. - Because of this, Paypal started nurturing groups of experts who could track and predict scam transactions. - They developed a software that analyzes data patterns, which allowed them to identify and prevent these schemes. - Peter Thiel thought that this software could potentially be used for many other things. Products: Gotham and Foundry - The CIA, they had collected a tremendous amount of data since 911, but weren't really sure of how they could utilize it to catch terrorists. - So the CIA became Palantir’s first client, and Palantir received an investment from In-Q-Tel, which is the venture arm of the CIA. - With the CIA’s support, they develop a software called Gotham, which allows Palantir to analyze huge data sets in real time, and visually demonstrate the result of the analysis through connective relations and patterns. - Gotham became recognized as the best analysis tool that the government has seen, and later became used by the CDC, NSA, FBI, the Pentagon, and the Marine Corps. - This software is used to track suspicious activities, the flow of potentially illegal funds, track missing children, or the spreading course of a disease. - With this experience and technology, they work with JP Morgan to develop a new software called Foundry. - Foundry is a solution for private firms that analyzes data to prevent financial fraud or illegal transactions. Financials Analysis - If we look at the quarterly income statement, the gross profit has dropped significantly in Q3 2020 from the 70% range to 50% range. - This is due to the compensation provided to the company’s employees through company shares. - Then we can also see that R&D expenses have increased significantly in the same quarter as well, and this is also due to the stock based compensation they’re giving out. - Regardless of this outlier, Palantir is a company that invests a lot on research and development. They are spending 30% of their revenue on R&D every quarter. - And as you can also see, Palantir is still technically not a profitable company, as their operating income is in the red. - Let’s take a quick look at their Q4 2020 results. Last quarter, they did $322m in revenue, which is a 40% increase compared to the same quarter last year. - In 2020 total, they did a little over a billion in revenue, which is a 47% increase compared to the revenue in 2019. - Looking at the average revenue from Palantir’s top 20 customers, the revenue increased 34% compared to last year, marking $33.2m. - The average revenue per customer also increased by 41%, marking $7.9m per customer on average. - This could be interpreted as a sign that Palantir’s clients are happy with the service they get. - In 2020, the revenue they generate from governments increased a whopping 77%, marking $610m. - In 2019, the commercial revenue covered 53% of the entire revenue, but in 2020, the government revenue outweighed the commercial revenue in terms of proportion, as it covered a little over 60% of the entire revenue. - The commercial revenue, on the other hand, wasn’t as impressive as the government revenue, as it only increased 22% compared to last year. - Using the PSG ratio, I calculated the 2023 estimate for Palantir's stock price to be anywhere between $36.31 to $48.38. Technical Analysis - We can count Elliott Waves on Palantir's 4 Hour logarithmic chart - We can see that the corrective abc waves have completed its formation, and that this entire chart is part of a bigger impulse wave. - What's important to note is that the price has retraced over 61.8% from all time high levels. - The price has managed to stay above the 0.618 fibonacci retracement support level. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading near oversold regions - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a golden cross, and has started to form bullish histograms Conclusion Palantir is a company that is in an increasingly growing industry, but is reliant on government contracts for the time being. While this means that they are a monopoly in some way, they have also set their strategy to target commercial clients in the coming years as well. Their cutting edge technology has been approved both by government and commercial clients, and justify the growth potential of the company. Using simple assumptions to apply the PSG ratio in calculating the fair value of the company, we can estimate the stock to reach between $36.31 and $48.38. Given that the stock is currently at $24.19, this is a 41-100% upside. Technical analysis also aligns with the bull case of the valuation, indicating that the stock has recently been oversold, and that an entry around $23 would be reasonable. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
PLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
9
PLTR: Ending diagonal?Don't follow this one much, but I've heard some good things about the company. I'll have to look into them more. The chart looks good. We have a pretty ugly ending diag. If examined closely it fits the internal wave structure of the aforementioned pattern. We also have some pretty good looking divergence on the 1hr. Some good looking humps ;) What do you all think of PLTR? I've been trying to keep these updated as much as I can while balancing family and work. I hope we all come out on top next week. I've been bleeding out long enough :) lol Linked another potential diag in EVGN. This one is a larger degree and it's a motive diag, not a corrective one. Thanks for checking it out!
PLong
by adambiers
2
PALANTIR LONG ONCE the Price Action Crosses 24 USDLONG PALANTIR Floor is being tested again at around 22 USD however the RSI indicator is showing that there has been an increased upward pressure In the last hourly sessions. Please be advised that once the price breakthrough the the breakout point on the graph, Palantir will would become a strong buy. Fundamentally, there is nothing wrong with the stock, it is priced cheap, it just had its first earnings report and more importantly all of the insiders already had their opportunity to exercise their share sales after the lock up period.
PLong
by AND_CAPITAL_LLC
PLTR - Massive Divergence on the horizon!Hello investors, As we can see, we had a huge Sell-off for a few weeks and today the move to the downside was massive! Palantir is signing more and more contracts, while the price is falling, which would mean that the only reason for the fall is the over-all bearish sentiment in the market. We can see the enourmous divergence that we have on the RSI on the 4hr chart and this indicates that we are near the bottom of the fall! Fundamentals of the company are more than amazing as we are a huge devoleper of an inovative industry, so huge returns are expected once the whole market becomes bullish. A long-term BUY position is a safe and smart move and since Cathy has been buying the stock a lot during the last few days, she should have acquired an enormous amount of shares today and with that the bottom of this fall is near. Good luck to all my fellow investors and traders!
PLong
by donaitelo
1
PLTR Falling wedge pattern! Look for a reversal!$PLTR Palantir Tech Price Targets: 1. $27 2. $29 3. $32 PLTR has been seeing some strong declines over the past month making lower lows and lower highs and formed a classic falling wedge which is a bullish pattern. There is a divergence in RSI (was below 30 for the past few days) and RSI is currently around 45 again divergence in RSI is also a potential bullish signal. PLTR broke out of wedge in the opposite direction today which is a sign of a reversal. Volume is relatively low. Need a good volume confirmation before opening a long position. Good luck and trade smart! (not a financial advice)
PLong
by faridisayev
1
BUY THE DIP | READY TO POP $PLTRPalantir is primed for another run, will you tag along? - Waiting for a strong confirmation on Monday to confirm but PLTR is looking beautiful into this close... Tag along for some Easy Loot! - PLTR is reacting to a key level at $22.59 as it looks to hold it as support. Today we seemed to have made our first test, would like to see a nice bounce Monday will confirm stronger support (bounce 4-5%). After we should see a nice run toward $31.5 to test as resistance before blowing past. After we bounce & breakout: Target: Long HODL (NEVER SELL) 2rd Target: $31.5 3nd Target: $37.98 Easy Loot Speculation $80-$120 minimum within next 5 years DCJ
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by DotcomJack
2
PALANTIR Technical Analysis! Buy! Hello, Traders! Palantir is a data mining and analytics company A recent IPO that skyrocketed into the stratosphere And as with Tesla and broader stock market We are seeing a correction on this stock The price has now reached an important technical support level So you can buy here and hedge with put options at strikes below 20$ Next good buy level is at 15$ as its a round number and -70% from the all time high Good addition to the portfolio! Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
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by TopTradingSignals
25
Excellent opportunityFirst of all, we must not forget that we are looking at a very young stock. It also offers a more hectic exchange rate and serious potential. The support level around $ 24 has proven to be stable on several occasions even on worse days - from a different point of view, the stock is a rare good buy here. The pessimism caused by the report will soon pass. One after another, positive news and new business collaborations arrive. I expect a serious rise, I have already bought it. Target price is the current maximum, later the moon. Finally, we must not forget that we are dealing with one of the cornerstones of digitalisation. Good luck to everyone. (:
PLong
by UnknownUnicorn6107104
1
Palantir (PLTR) Abandoned BabyI am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial or investment advice. I think PLTR formed a Bullish Abandoned Baby and may go up. No lengthy analysis on this one, I'm either right or wrong....but hopefully the former. :) I have inputted an order prior to market open to buy two call contracts. I won't be monitoring the market for most of today so I wanted to take advantage of getting in before PLTR takes off, but I also realize it's risky so I'm mitigating the risk by only purchasing two contracts.
P
by AROD01
4
OI, DOW & MANIPULATION - Palantir $PLTR - Short Iron ButterflyWhen 400~ institutions are crowding a stock, and the biggest of names are playing MM. I want to use them as a shield, and poke out from behind them to stab little by little. This is my all-time favorite options strategy, and it can be used under very specific conditions.. 1. Accumulation/Distribution Phase is identified (Dow Theory). 2. Range-bound movement and a sharp fall in volatility is forecasted (Ascendance/Participation Phase, with clear indication of Ranging Market, Supply/Demand levels). 3. Breakout is forecasted, and there exists great momentum, high premia and implied volatility (Excess forecasted). 4. Personal trend bias (bullish long-term outlook on company, Value investing, Trend). It is the ultimate premium harvesting strategy... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Short Iron Butterfly Spread: "Goal: To profit from neutral stock price action near the strike price of the short options (center strike) with limited risk. A short iron butterfly spread is the strategy of choice when the forecast is for stock price action near the center strike price of the spread, because it profits from time decay. However, unlike a short straddle, the potential risk of a short iron butterfly spread is limited. Explanation: Example of short iron butterfly spread: Buy 1 XYZ 95 Put at 1.20 (1.20) Sell 1 XYZ 100 Put at 3.20 3.20 Sell 1 XYZ 100 Call at 3.30 3.30 Buy 1 XYZ 105 Call at 1.40 (1.40) Net Credit = 3.90 A short iron butterfly spread is a four-part strategy consisting of a bull put spread and a bear call spread in which the short put and short call have the same strike price. All options have the same expiration date, and the three strike prices are equidistant. In the example above, one 95 Put is purchased, one 100 put is sold, one 100 Call is sold and one 105 Call is purchased. This strategy is established for a net credit, and both the potential profit and maximum risk are limited. The maximum profit is realized if the stock price is equal to the strike price of the short options (center strike) on the expiration date. The maximum risk is the difference between the lower and center strike prices less the net credit received. The maximum risk is realized if the stock price is above the highest strike price or below the lowest strike price at expiration. Maximum profit: The maximum profit potential is equal to the net credit received less commissions, and this profit is realized if the stock price is equal to the strike price of the short options (center strike) at expiration. In this outcome, all options expire worthless and the net credit is kept as income. Maximum risk: The maximum risk is equal to the difference between the lowest and middle strike prices less the net credit received. In the example above, the difference between the lowest and middle strike prices is 5.00, and the net credit received is 3.90, not including commissions. The maximum risk, therefore, is 1.10 less commissions." - Taken from Fidelity ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SPECULATION: - Why will SP rally 30%+ early in the week? - SP has just transitioned out of 2nd accumulation level, entering ascendance/public participation phase. - Price target upgrades from previously bearish institutions suggest they want to markup the SP. - Previous price action suggests that it opens strong on hype and positive catalysts, before entering a range to trap retail bulls. - There are Fib levels at 33~ and 35~ that must be tested for confirmation. - There is a gap to fill at 32~ for further confirmation. - Frenzied buying will soon come to an end, as the SP stabilizes. It is currently trending as "The top interest for WSB". IV will rise at first. - Large stopping volume will occur at key OI levels as Excess is sold off and we enter the 2nd distribution level. IV will quickly fall. - There is 16,286 OI on 40 strike calls for 2/26, so I don't foresee this level being broken for long next week... Above it is a gamma ramp that will take the SP to clear skies... I'm not sure the MM will allow that. - The broader market is uncertain, and a lot can change over the weekend, but judging from the low GEX, and DIX that seems to be bouncing, the market does not seem ready for a correction, yet... - Bitcoin is a good indicator for risk asset spending nowadays... Watch for huge selloff before market open, decide if it is profit-taking, or corrective. FA: - Please see my Jan. 8 Idea which documents the Fundamental Analysis I have been doing on this company. - Simply put, this company is unrivalled, and a near-future mega-company. 0.5-1T Mcap, very, very soon. SP500 inclusion without a question. TA: - Have very powerful bullish reversal indicators as support, based on my Feb. 18 Forecast. - This should take the stock price to the 60-70 levels that I forecasted in Jan. 8. QA: - Basis of the strategy is the complete control of MM's on the SP... Only a gamma squeeze can break through the key OI levels, Cohen is notorious for his put/call walls strategy, and he most definitely has a hand in the MM action here... As of Q4, his Point72 owns about 2% of the company. Much greater now, I speculate. - Historical analysis has shown that it is almost impossible for PLTR to break through the large put/call walls, and quickly reverts to the mean if it ever does. - The SP will tend to settle around the OI "valleys" at options expiration (OpEx), and quite often, it is even at the exact value to 2 decimals. - PLTR key open interest levels for 3/5/2021: $35 calls: 14,464 $35 puts: 11,776 $45 calls: 11,311 $45 puts: 8,667 $50 calls: 14,898 $50 puts: 13,168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ STRATEGY: - Deep ITM Bullish Short Iron Butterfly for 3/5/2021, then rollover to Deep ITM Bearish Short Iron Butterfly for 3/5/2021 for the expiration. - Goal is to capture the great premium of puts before the rally, then capture the premium of the calls + puts on the pullback, for expiry. - Wings will protect the trade from forecast failure and a massive gamma squeeze in either direction. - Why I am taking this trade, is because of the historical analysis I have done since Jan. 8, and I have gathered sufficient evidence of the manipulation on this SP, and I believe that I can predict the price action to a high degree of accuracy. I don't see why the MM's would suddenly stop the range-bound price action, unless a real gamma squeeze occurs... but the wings and core long positions protect against this. - Trigger 1: Stable broader market, positive catalyst, good sentiment, 32 gap fill, breaking out of 33 and 35 Fib levels for greater confirmation. - Butterfly 1: Strike - $49.00, Upper wing - $55.00, Lower wing - $43.00. - Trigger 2: SP reaches $49.00 on impulse wave. - Rollover: SP - $49.00, to Butterfly 2. - Butterfly 2: Strike - $41.00, Upper wing - $45.00, Lower wing - $37.00. - SL: $46.00 support level pin. - Expiration: 3/5/2021 - Timeframe: 14 days DEFENSE: - How to defend the position, if things go south? If the short call in a short iron butterfly is assigned, then 100 shares of stock are sold short and the long call and both puts remain open. If a short stock position is not wanted, it can be closed in one of two ways. First, 100 shares can be purchased in the marketplace. Second, the short 100-share position can be closed by exercising the long call. Remember, however, that exercising a long call will forfeit the time value of that call. Therefore, it is generally preferable to buy shares to close the short stock position and then sell the long call. This two-part action recovers the time value of the long call. One caveat is commissions. Buying shares to cover the short stock position and then selling the long call is only advantageous if the commissions are less than the time value of the long call. - This strategy has a heavy bullish bias, so the chances of being assigned on puts are much higher than on the calls... If the SP does reach beyond, this is good for my core long position. - The biggest risk in this trade that I foresee is the SP pinned at the $46 support level, which lies between the strike price and the upper wing, of butterfly 1. - However, high premia of deep ITM options mitigates this risk. - $46 Short Straddle would be a good defense to this scenario, (Sell call, sell put) since $46 is a high probability level for 3/5 expiry. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ This strategy can be high risk, depending on the long-term outlook on this company... For me, I don't mind being assigned at these levels, and I have a core long position, so it is low risk. The strategy is based on forecasting the price action precisely, not only the levels, but the time frame. That said, this is most definitely not financial advice. I am describing my own strategy. If you like the idea, please support by giving a like, follow, and sub!
PLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
PLTR to the MOONPLTR has been consolidating since late November before spiking up late January due to it trending in r/wallsreetbets. This probably leads to many retail investors started to look into PLTR business, and I believe some also considered taking long positions in between 35 - 40ish price area. However quite a number of investors are also contemplating as it is nears lockup period which allows initial shareholders to finally cash in on the previous PLTR rally. Price dropped at 25 but we saw heavy volume on that day, probably due to ARK Invest doubling down on their position. On Friday the price gapped up with stronger than ever volume, at this price I believe many will start to jump on the bandwagon. Short term investor will look at this having a nice risk-reward ratio, while long term investor would not hesitate to finally open their position as the price is already at a great discount.
PLong
by nuss1010