Buy or Sell PLTR?Overview
Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) is a software company involved in data analytics and operations management. Its primary revenue is generated by subscriptions and government contracts. PLTR has been making headlines as a growth stock so the question remains, is it too late to get in on the action? The truth is that nobody knows so this is where the savvy investors will shine.
Fundamental Analysis
The stock is overvalued with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 494. A massive P/E ratio tells you one of two things: (1) the stock is overweight and due for a correction or (2) there are high expectations for strong growth. The P/E ratio isn't the end all be all, but it's worth knowing to get a pulse on market sentiments.
YTD (EPS) Earnings-Per-Share: $390,982,000 / 2,459,589,000 = $0.16
(Q3 Nine Months Ended Net Income) / (Q3 Total Diluted Shares) = YTD EPS
P/E Ratio: 79.08 / 0.16 = 494.25
(Current Market Price) / (EPS) = P/E Ratio
This could be an exciting time to invest in PLTR, but precautions should be taken in the event that the Q4 Annual Report falls short of expectations and sends the share price barreling downwards. Expectations vary per analyst but here is what I would like to see on the next Earnings Release on Feb 12, 2025:
2024 Annual Revenue (approx): $2.9B (+30.34%)
2024 Annual Basic EPS (approx): $0.20 (+100.00%)
Q4 Revenue (approx): $849M (+17.02%)
Q4 Basic EPS (approx): $0.09 (+28.57%)
Since 2020, Palantir has experienced an average annual growth rate of 89.05% and became a profitable company in Q1 of 2023 (earnings released May 9, 2023). The share price has grown tenfold since then. If Palantir can maintain profitability and reliable growth, then the rally is probably far from being over.
Technical Analysis
There are no reliable technical patterns that can provide trading confidence at this moment. In times like this, I feel that less is more. I am only utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels and drawing basic support lines to dictate the depth of potential corrections. The use of oscillators such as MACD and RSI seem like they may prove to be more misleading than helpful.
Scenario 1:
If the share price continues to rally, then my short-term price target would be between $111 & $123 before I would expect to see any resistance. In the event mixed sentiments continue then Support 1 (white line) may not see the bulls taking control again until the price drops around $76.50. The 78.6% Fib level rests at $75.31 so any further drops from this price level would leave me hopeful of a strong support around $63.
Scenario 2:
If Support 1 fails entirely then Support 2 (yellow line) would likely contain the next significant support level. The share price could drop to as low as the mid 50s where there is a 50% Fib level.
Potential Trading Strategies
Getting a pulse on the market and financial health of a public company goes a long way to provide confidence, however, it's not airtight. A poor earnings release or unexpected bad news could deteriorate an investment in a short amount of time. Rather than staying out when in doubt, I've always enjoyed safely expanding my experience and awareness of available tools.
Stop-Loss Limit Orders
If I don't feel like supplementing my investment with derivatives then I place a stop-loss limit order to execute at whichever price level shakes my confidence. If the share price hits my stop-loss level then the next condition that needs to be met is my limit price. If the stop-loss was activated and the share price remains above my limit price, then it will automatically try to sell all of my specified shares at my limit price or higher.
Protective Puts:
Options contracts can be very intimidating for investors that aren't familiar with them. However, knowledge is power and options contracts can be very beneficial when used correctly. Whenever I buy shares in a company that I think is going to grow, but contradicts my impression of market direction, then I buy Protective Puts to shield my investment and give me peace of mind. This can either complement stop-loss orders or provide me the confidence to withstand turbulent price fluctuations without the risk of exiting my positions prematurely in the event that a stop-loss would become activated.
Cash-Secured Puts:
I'm new to writing contracts but I can see the allure. If I'm not confident that a share price is about to rally, or if I think that it may dip significantly, then I would consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy. My initial shares purchase would be a fraction of my available funds with the intentions of exposing my portfolio should the stock rally sooner than expected. In the meantime, I would write/sell Put contracts at strike price levels that I am both capable and comfortable of purchasing 100 shares per contract at. This strategy minimizes my exposure to gains and losses, while allowing me to collect premiums.
If those Cash-Secured Puts were exercised, then I would purchase 100 shares per contract at the contracts' strike price(s). This would effectively lower my cost-basis. If those contracts expire worthless then I get to keep the premium and my cash is freed up. If the stock begins to rally and I want to bail on my contract obligations so that I can get in on it, then I can buy-to-close the Puts at their lowered price and keep the difference as profits.
