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Palladium

SBSW & PLG breakout coming Two platinum/palladium miners that are set to catch up with the broader market rally. SBSW: Above its VWAP from recent peak, VWAP from February peak and VWAP from March low. Also consolidates above 50 EMA which found support at the 200 EMA and is now pushing price higher. I have removed the 5 and 20 EMA in order to see the VWAPs but please add them to your own chart and you will see they are in a very bullish position. PLG: Still has some work to do consolidating below the 200 EMA and VWAP from recent peak, while above the 50 EMA and VWAP from Feb peak/March low. I have picked the $1.70 level as the final resistance level. I am going to watch SBSW as it is technically closer to a breakout, and if the breakout occurs, PLG has a very high probability to move higher.
NYSE:SBSWLong
by ETrades1
DXY (COT Analysis)Okay, here is the DXY or the Dollar Index. Part 1... This post is going to be quite long as it is going to serve as the post that introduces something im gonna try and update weekly. the COT Report. Now, i had no idea what the COT report was until i watched and looked at a very popular, here on TrdingView, trader's charts and saw his very useful indicator! I did my own research and thanks to another popular trader, again here on tradingview, who helped tremendously with providing some very useful resources i was able to learn about the COT. Now Here is going to be a trial, mainly for my own reference, to track which pairs too look out for. So without further wait: the USD Bias- Undecided Commercials - current== (16 438) and the previous == (18 407) Non-Commercials- Current== 14 799 and the previous== 17 297 Open Interest - current == 28 298 and the previous == 31 477 What does this mean? This means the Dollar is stalling right now. The open interest went down which suggests that both sides closed out positions without opening up new ones. the non commerciasl are still selling and the non-commercials are still buying which is giving us the slight rise in PA. However on the COT Index the Gap is closing between the Commercials and Non-Commercials., nd both sides are nearing the Zero Line. the last time this happened the Dollar fell to 86-87. This might be just a profit taking session to give the DXY a slight rest as the 30 year bond rate on the COT index the Commercial failed to take out their previous buying high set in april, so we could see bond rates go lower while the interest gets a bit higher attracting more investors into the American economy! The Euro Bias- Moderate Buy! Commercials- Current== (-106 256) previous ==(-102 594) change == (-3 662) Non-Com- Current== 75 222 previous== 72 562 change ==2 660 Open interest- current== 556 749 previous== 547 206 change== 9 543 What this tells us is that the Commercials are still selling to the Non-Commercials and this is deduced from the increase of the Open Intrest. The euro makes up ike 56% of the DXY and this currency is a moderate buy! now what i want to see is another increase in long orders so the COT index exceedes the current Buy level. Its no Seceret that Germany is the Back Bone of the Euro providing 20% to the Union Budget followed by France and the UK at 15%. Now Germany's main Export are cars and other electronics and Platinum and Palladium are main metals for those as they provide for conduction in the electronic compntes and for emission parts on cars. Both metals took a hit in price and Commercial and Non-Commercials have relieved both sides during COVID-19 making both metals cheaper. now when the economy opens back up i would not be shocked if the main compaines that make these pieces of equipment and cars to buy a surplus to Hedge their physical position causing a slight dip initially in their profit share only to expand in the long run causing the Euro to grow stronger as Germany offers more to the Union Budget. To Be Continued...
TVC:DXYLong
by ARegularGuy
Short opportunity Palladium 25 May, 2020The value of Palladium has been declining for several months and I see now another good opportunity to short as price seems on the verge of breaking through the support at 1947 area. I am interested in taking a short, with stop above 1983 to target just above 1780. The R/R justifies this "with trend" trade. The memorial day holiday in the US will mean rather thin markets on 25/05, so please be watchful. If you like my analysis please give it a "thumbs up" and follow me to get immediate notification about my posts. As always, please use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
FX_IDC:XPDUSDShort
by Trading_Vista
Palladium LongWir haben eine sehr starke Unterstützungslinie seit 2018, ausserdem ein großes Dreieck im Tageschart. Edelmetalle sind in der Corona Krise gefallen, nun hat sich ein Ausbrechen nach oben auch in anderen Edelmetallen (wie zum Beispiel Silber diese Woche) bestätigt. Der Commitment of Traders Report von gestern sagt aus, dass die großen Firmen, die mit dem Edelmetall arbeiten, alle groß investiert sind. Das ist geschenktes Insiderwissen - bestätigt auch das Ausbrechen nach unten. Bei Edelmetallen kann uns auch nicht die FED oder EZB einen Strich durch die Rechnung machen. Ich sehe hier alles bullish. Ich setze den Stop Loss bei knapp unter allen Unterstützungen bei 1760 - Happy Trading!
FX_IDC:XPDUSD
by BullBoss
1
Sell opportunity arises - PalladiumNot a lot specific believe or view behind this post, apart from technicals. Over the last few weeks we were trading inside a triangle, mostly shaped by a huge collapse early in march and recovering afterwards. We broke out of the triangle last week. Palladium tends to trade down in a weakening economy, which is where we are heading given all the recent news. We had lower highs, higher lows, then breakout of the triangle, trading down and setting now low, retesting upside now and we have some EMA's hanging, together with the falling trendline . Wait till Palladium enter's the red zone, and sell with your own prefered SL/TP. Trading is not about copying but about forming your own opinion.
OANDA:XPDUSDShort
by pptw
3
Sell opportunity arises - PalladiumNot a lot specific believe or view behind this post, apart from technicals. Over the last few weeks we were trading inside a triangle, mostly shaped by a huge collapse early in march and recovering afterwards. We broke out of the triangle last week. Palladium tends to trade down in a weakening economy, which is where we are heading given all the recent news. We had lower highs, higher lows, then breakout of the triangle, trading down and setting now low, retesting upside now and we have some EMA's hanging, together with the falling trendline. Wait till Palladium enter's the red zone, and sell with your own prefered SL/TP. Trading is not about copying but about forming your own opinion.
PShort
by pptw
Palladium demand destructionThanks for viewing, Some view platinum and palladium not as investment petals for various reasons, others disagree. I prefer (in rank) 1. gold (bullish), 2, silver (neutral), platinum (bearish). Platinum makes the list because I can purchase it in small increments - while palladium was only available in a minimum of 1oz coins (which had high premiums - as coins in general do). That said, I expect platinum to also show future weakness - potentially going sub $350ish - which is okay as it is a strategic metal that is relevant to defence applications among other things. The reasons I expect weakness in demand for Platinum (currently oversupplied) are the same as for Palladium (under-supply); Palladium has had a huge run since 2008 - peaking at 16.5x and now at 10.5x over that time period. The major driver was a supply demand mis-match caused from strong demand from auto-catalysts for petrol vehicles. All that has changed dramatically in a short period. Demand has been destroyed for new motor vehicles. Light vehicle sales were down 34.6% in March www.marklines.com and that drop will be over-shadowed by the April drop. Hopefully, these drops are short-term and will bounce back shortly - like vehicle demand in China did - although estimates vary on the time-frame. I suspect we will see near-term demand reduced from 2019 levels for all of 2020. Medium and long term factors are both negative for those expecting internal combustion light vehicles production levels to bounce bank to new highs. The most major impact will come from an unfolding de-leveraging. For those that blame the health crisis for 100% of the economic woes, please cast your eye a few months back when we had; - an inverted yield curve, - downgrades of global and regional GDP growth announced by the IMF, World Bank, BOJ, ECB, Fed etc etc, - Cautions on the level of sovereign, corporate, and household debt levels, - Interest rates in the US repo market spiking to over 11%, - The Fed started QE4, or what they called "definitely not QE4", - Large investment banks were announcing they were advising their clients to sell US equities because they saw limited upside remaining, - The US continued on its longest and weakest economic expansion in history. My general view is that this health crisis with its associated economic contraction brought forward (and exacerbated) what was already just around the corner - a recession. Any deleveraging event was always going to have to be more significant than 2008-9 simply because debt levels are so much greater now - while incomes have stayed flat. So this will necessarily impact on discretionary consumer demand (and availability of consumer credit) for some time. Price targets; 1300 should provide some support, stronger support at the $1140, and $1100 levels. 1:1 extension of the recent steep drop at $1060. This level may cause a strong bounce in 6 - 12 months (depending on industrial demand pick-up) - but after that who knows. The trajectory now seems to be away from diesel vehicles, especially since the VW scandal (which hasn't yet fully unfolded to reveal just how wide-spread the massaging of emissions results among the industry as a whole). Medium to long-term, there is every possibility that Palladium's new home will be below $1100. Protect those funds everyone
TVC:PALLADIUMShort
by flyinkiwi10
1
PALLADIUM 1D DESCENDING TRIANGLEDescending Triangles are repeatable trading chart patterns. Descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend. Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern. Whatever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart). Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place. Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement. When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern. Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close. 1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line). a - Breakout candle must be 100% of the average volume for a full position size. b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+) 2 - Enter two trades. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price. *8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade *9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open. a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size. b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open. c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade. d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
OANDA:XPDUSDShort
by Tradingstrategyguides