Palladium at $4,500? The opportunity you don't want to miss.It is no secret that Palladium is one of the biggest winner of the last 3 years. It's long term chart shows that there is even great upside potential. During 1996 - 2001 Palladium made a +879% rise before it consolidated for more than a decade.
Palladium investors eye a similar pattern. The strongest reason behind this is the Palladium-to-Gold ratio. In 2000/2001 this ratio peaked at 4.2. If it happens again, and there is no reason to believe it won't as the candle sequence that preceded this sharp rise is virtually identical, it will take Palladium's price just above $4,500.
Very good long term opportunity indeed for patient investors.
See our previous 1,367 target on the Palladium/ Gold comparison:
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Palladium
$PALL - Time to Take Some Money off the Table?Palladium has had a fantastic run for 2019 so far, primarily driven by declining global supplies mixed in with rising global demand. In fact, as a result of this trend, the metal has been up 24% so far year-to-date.
However, despite this the stellar trend, recent price action has shown that the rally may be running out of steam. As can be seen, though the price has risen to a 2019 high of $151.35, its technical indicators have failed to follow suit. The SMI and RSI are currently showing negative divergence with $PALL price, as it appears that momentum is coming out of this rally.
As a result, though we think the palladium supply shortage will continue, the $PALL rally is looking a little stretched at the moment. Thus for investors who are currently in $PALL, we would recommend to take some money off the table, while those looking to jump in should wait for a pullback.
Palladium: Turning parabolic towards 1,800?It is no secret that Palladium is on a strong long term bullish trend, and we have discussed this subject on this comparison with Gold where we estimated a target of 1,367 (see the chart below).
XPDUSD has even outperformed this target and is currently on a very interesting development where it can turn parabolic towards 1,800. Even if that doesn't materialize, the RSI shows that the target can be fulfilled either on the current 1D Channel Up (RSI = 58.312, MACD = 34.870, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) or the Higher Low support provided by the previous Channel Up.
See our previous 1,367 target on the Palladium/ Gold comparison:
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Palladium Breaks Out Yet AgainLast post: March 14th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price was trending well and was approaching the previous resistance level.
Update: Price has now broken out to the upside after being in the mini consolidation zone for a few weeks.
Conclusion: We will now look to enter another position to add to our other positions which are already in good profit.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Palladium Not Slowing Down Just YetLast post: November 30th 2018. See chart .
Review: Price was trending well and making new all-time highs.
Update: Price continues to create new all-time highs but is currently in a period of mini consolidation.
Conclusion: We will look to enter more compounds on the next breakout.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Is Palladium ever going to stop?No. TO THE MOON!
Thank you for your time, goodbye.
But seriously, we have being going up for a while now, I think mainly due to supply issues, and after palladium became more expensive than gold, it has started to go parabolic.
We are pulling back now, right at that price that was gold complacency support.
I believe either the bubble will pop, or we are going to test gold all time high.
Now... If we go past gold all time high... Oh my. Brace yourselves, the FOMO herd is going to come stampeding.
Industrials NEED palladium, to build cars and other stuff doesn't even matter.
The sources are not exactly reliable: Russia and South Africa. that is it.
Everybody knows Russia, and you migh have heard South Africa was very uncertain...
If Russia ends up being the only source it's GG.
Right now the normy crowd could not care less, but if Palladium starts going into a mania, just wait and see how every one grandma asks about the white metal.
So I see 2 scenarios:
1- Industrials have been panic buying massively and we are going to end up with huge supply and no demand. Huge rapid crash.
2- South Africa will keep sinking into populism and banks nationalisation etc, Palladium demand will keep to rise, and at some point the mainstream FOMO crowd will hear about that precious metal that has been going up and up and up, and this time it will be different "Ye ok we messed up with Bitcoin but Palladium is a real metal and it is actually used in cars and very valuable and scarce so it is impossible we are wrong this time." Once the FOMO crows gets it, enjoy daytrading this +30% in 1 day...
Either way, probably going to be fun. Be ready. Keep your eyes on this before anyone else.
And remember, no matter how many hundreds of times the mainstream crowd was wrong, this time it WILL be different, they are 100% certain of it.
Palladium, a desirable pullback on a very strong trendThis noble metal has been stealing the show of its bigger brothers and sisters ever since the risk growth of a market correction started showing at the end of 2018.
Market makers keep playing range-bound cat & mouse with smaller investors still stuck on the "use gold to hedge" multi millennium motto while less popular markets sneak by
However, after a strong bull, and considering this specific market is not yet euphoria-bound in my opinion due to the lack of media exposure, a pull back would be desirable for the health of this up trend -which begins to look like a bubble-
And we have achieved very good levels for this to happen.
Consider hedging long positions around and above the red area for better prices using tools to monitor market makers movements.
For better results, use context of other noble metals and stocks market situations
Unlike the NASDAQ (and overall US markets) ideas, we are not trying to build strong shorts, but merely manage risk on long positions (for now)
Just like all my published ideas, this is not financial advisement, trade at your own risk
Palladium, It's Going to Be Fine...AMEX:SPPP gave me a scare this week when the stock plummetted, but it seems it will likely make a full recovery and continue its bull run, at least in the short term.
The price of palladium and platinum are based on two things: supply & demand. However, it is more complicated than that. There is also market speculation on supply and demand which is often seen as directly linked to overall market performance. Overall market performance seems to dictate the swings of AMEX:SPPP so much so that the price of palladium has not caught up to the demand. It's almost like a lagging indicator - like the price is stubborn to move despite the demand.
The result is that there are periods of recovery despite market movement. This is where we are now. Despite the SP:SPX and NASDAQ:IXIC having trouble today, palladium and platinum have regained their momentum, as investors saw this downswing as a time to buy, knowing the price was not matching supply/demand.
Historically, AMEX:SPPP appears to favor the 89 EMA on the 30min candles for support in a downtrend and resistance in an uptrend, with the price frequently bouncing off this line. Similarly, spikes that surpass 80 on the RSI-21 have shattered that line of resistance on the main chart with a slow and angry tumble. This has not happened, and therefore, is new territory where the outlook is still strong.
Palladium prices went up 0.85% today, while platinum was down.
I suspect there will be a 50% recovery (seems to be typical for these types of dramatic short swings before a consolidation pattern and upswing) from the latest drop by the end of the week, end of tomorrow if we are lucky. That puts it around an $11.75 price target to sell high.
This is the flip trend directly as the shiny palladium get readyTake a look at this chart showing how the safe-haven metal platinum has been underperforming and is now at major support.
I expect money to flow out of the leader palladium and into platinum over the next few months.
See Palladium chart:
Palladium Weekly: More valuable than Gold?Trading Indicator: Ichimoku Cloud
Resistance: $1560
Support: $1100 - $979 (618 to 786 Fib retracement). This is also confirmed by the Senkou A & B of cloud.
Momentum: Stochastic and RSI heavily overbought. A steep profit taking pullback would not be surprising.
Trade Setup: Wait for a pullback in Palladium before initiating fresh buys. We are in a sub 4 wave count and larger ABC correction.
Fundamentals: Precious metals are taking a step back and Palladium will not be immune in the short-term as Gold takes a break. US/China trade deal could have an opposite impact on Palladium as such a deal would usher in consumer confidence in the two largest economies. Palladium largest use (60% of value) comes from its use in catalytic converters for vehicles. This rare metal makes the pollutants from vehicles much less harmful. Trade deal could spur automobile purchases in China/India and other parts of the world. Such a deal between the two largest economies could delay recession worries, increase consumer confidence/spending on larger purchases like vehicles, and thus, more demand for Palladium.
Cheers,
Bobby
Platinum / Palladium Price Ratio - Long PlatinumThese charts deserve a closer look. :)
Platinum / Palladium ratio just touched an all time low. You can see the explosive move up, following the last time the price ratio of these two metals touched this level.
Considering the platinum chart on its own... Price recently found support from a ten year old support level... $750. Since then price has mostly consolidated with a couple failed breakouts dropping price back to support. However, although it doesn't look like much on the long term weekly chart, platinum is up $65 from the February low and has broken above $830, previous resistance.
There's a couple interesting things looking at the Palladium chart also. Price is at a measured move above the midpoint from the lows, which also looks to be significant support / resistance. I'm not jumping all in calling a top in Palladium, but $1500 does sort of portray a psychological milestone in and of itself. And although the fundamental argument could be made that price still has a long way to run, I'm sure people were saying the same thing about Platinum in May 2008 before it dropped from $2200 down to $750 in the course of six months.
And often technicals are all that's needed to trigger a sharp reversal in price... Looking at the selloff in crude October 2018....
All things said Platinum looks like a good buy and hold Risk / Reward ratio, supported by the strength across the other precious metals. I'm going to wait and see how Palladium reacts to the $1500 level...
North American Palladium ltd broke outJust after coiling up, very bullish. You can wait for retest, I will indeed, but, hey!.. this thing could never get back down.
Palladium: Short opportunity approaching.XPDUSD is trading on a long term 1W Channel Up that has reached overbought levels (RSI = 83.871, STOCHRSI = 100.000, ADX = 94.173, Williams = -4.387). If the 1D RSI hits 79.00 - 80.00, we will go short with TP = 1,448.
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Palladium Short OpporutnityPalladium is flirting with 1500, all time high. While demand for catalytic converter is increasing, supply deficit of Palladium increasing helping rally since many months. 4 hourly chart shows clear negative divergence providing a short opportunity. 1450 remain near term target.
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