Palladium, It's Going to Be Fine...AMEX:SPPP gave me a scare this week when the stock plummetted, but it seems it will likely make a full recovery and continue its bull run, at least in the short term.
The price of palladium and platinum are based on two things: supply & demand. However, it is more complicated than that. There is also market speculation on supply and demand which is often seen as directly linked to overall market performance. Overall market performance seems to dictate the swings of AMEX:SPPP so much so that the price of palladium has not caught up to the demand. It's almost like a lagging indicator - like the price is stubborn to move despite the demand.
The result is that there are periods of recovery despite market movement. This is where we are now. Despite the SP:SPX and NASDAQ:IXIC having trouble today, palladium and platinum have regained their momentum, as investors saw this downswing as a time to buy, knowing the price was not matching supply/demand.
Historically, AMEX:SPPP appears to favor the 89 EMA on the 30min candles for support in a downtrend and resistance in an uptrend, with the price frequently bouncing off this line. Similarly, spikes that surpass 80 on the RSI-21 have shattered that line of resistance on the main chart with a slow and angry tumble. This has not happened, and therefore, is new territory where the outlook is still strong.
Palladium prices went up 0.85% today, while platinum was down.
I suspect there will be a 50% recovery (seems to be typical for these types of dramatic short swings before a consolidation pattern and upswing) from the latest drop by the end of the week, end of tomorrow if we are lucky. That puts it around an $11.75 price target to sell high.
Palladium
This is the flip trend directly as the shiny palladium get readyTake a look at this chart showing how the safe-haven metal platinum has been underperforming and is now at major support.
I expect money to flow out of the leader palladium and into platinum over the next few months.
See Palladium chart:
Palladium Weekly: More valuable than Gold?Trading Indicator: Ichimoku Cloud
Resistance: $1560
Support: $1100 - $979 (618 to 786 Fib retracement). This is also confirmed by the Senkou A & B of cloud.
Momentum: Stochastic and RSI heavily overbought. A steep profit taking pullback would not be surprising.
Trade Setup: Wait for a pullback in Palladium before initiating fresh buys. We are in a sub 4 wave count and larger ABC correction.
Fundamentals: Precious metals are taking a step back and Palladium will not be immune in the short-term as Gold takes a break. US/China trade deal could have an opposite impact on Palladium as such a deal would usher in consumer confidence in the two largest economies. Palladium largest use (60% of value) comes from its use in catalytic converters for vehicles. This rare metal makes the pollutants from vehicles much less harmful. Trade deal could spur automobile purchases in China/India and other parts of the world. Such a deal between the two largest economies could delay recession worries, increase consumer confidence/spending on larger purchases like vehicles, and thus, more demand for Palladium.
Cheers,
Bobby
Platinum / Palladium Price Ratio - Long PlatinumThese charts deserve a closer look. :)
Platinum / Palladium ratio just touched an all time low. You can see the explosive move up, following the last time the price ratio of these two metals touched this level.
Considering the platinum chart on its own... Price recently found support from a ten year old support level... $750. Since then price has mostly consolidated with a couple failed breakouts dropping price back to support. However, although it doesn't look like much on the long term weekly chart, platinum is up $65 from the February low and has broken above $830, previous resistance.
There's a couple interesting things looking at the Palladium chart also. Price is at a measured move above the midpoint from the lows, which also looks to be significant support / resistance. I'm not jumping all in calling a top in Palladium, but $1500 does sort of portray a psychological milestone in and of itself. And although the fundamental argument could be made that price still has a long way to run, I'm sure people were saying the same thing about Platinum in May 2008 before it dropped from $2200 down to $750 in the course of six months.
And often technicals are all that's needed to trigger a sharp reversal in price... Looking at the selloff in crude October 2018....
All things said Platinum looks like a good buy and hold Risk / Reward ratio, supported by the strength across the other precious metals. I'm going to wait and see how Palladium reacts to the $1500 level...
North American Palladium ltd broke outJust after coiling up, very bullish. You can wait for retest, I will indeed, but, hey!.. this thing could never get back down.
Palladium: Short opportunity approaching.XPDUSD is trading on a long term 1W Channel Up that has reached overbought levels (RSI = 83.871, STOCHRSI = 100.000, ADX = 94.173, Williams = -4.387). If the 1D RSI hits 79.00 - 80.00, we will go short with TP = 1,448.
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Palladium Short OpporutnityPalladium is flirting with 1500, all time high. While demand for catalytic converter is increasing, supply deficit of Palladium increasing helping rally since many months. 4 hourly chart shows clear negative divergence providing a short opportunity. 1450 remain near term target.
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XPD/USD sell setupXPD rejected my level nicely, but is now breaking the high in what seems to be an incomplete upward corrective structure. Watch for a potential sell setup at the 1475 quarters level, which is the 27% extension of last correction. Obviously the 1500.00 level is significant also should it shoot to it.
Palladium (PA1!) - vroom vroom vroomYou are probably asking what is palladium? It's an important rare earth metal used in electronics, catalytic converters, dental fillings and other industrial uses. Major mines located in US, South Africa, Russia and Canada.
Falls within the same metal family as Platinum.
Use cases:
Automotive - 53% (used in catalytic converters that makes car exhaust less pollutant)
Dental - 11% (dental fillings)
Electronics - 15%
Jewelry - 10%
Other -11%
Global car sales have been on the rise and therefore more catalytic converters needed for US, China and India sales. What an amazing run from January 2016 to January 2018 seeing nearly a 3x in price growth in Wave 1. Global US car sales continue to climb supporting a continued need for Palladium.
Next Move: Palladium eyes 161.8% to $1540 and then faces possible correction.
Trade Idea: Take 25%-50% profits when the ADX hits 50 on the DMI. Stochastic and RSI showing sell signals as overbought. If there is a correction we expect there to be strong support at $1100. If $1100 falls the 200 Week MA will be very strong support.
Regards,
Bobby
PALL Looks to be setting up short term bearishPall has seen a major bull run lately.
Volume is declining.
Divergence is forming but has bounced previously.
I understand that scarcity of this metal but it needs a healthy pull back before continuing further.
Additional real use and applications for this metal would help boost the next leg up.
Platinum Group Metals Ltd. | Bullish Accumulation Zone.PLG,
They are poised to with the Waterberg Project Probable Reserve: 12.3 Million Ounce Palladium, Platinum, Gold and Rhodium, (4E)*
This looks to be a muli year play.
The price of palladium continues to rise and become more scarce.
Link to Waterberg Project
s1.q4cdn.com
Palladium: Bullish continuation on ideal conditions.XPDUSD (Palladium) has made a new Higher Low on its long term 1W Channel Up (MACD = 89.310, Highs/Lows = 86.3564, BBP = 189.9320) and due to the overbought RSI = 77.424, it should slow down its uptrend within the next 20 sessions. This doesn't necessarily mean that it has to consolidate sideways, but as it did on the late Oct - lat Nov period, it may rise slowly on a more standard Channel Up. 1D has created the perfect conditions for this (RSP = 58.571, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). We are going long again on Palladium with TP = 1,455.
See our previous long term bullish report on Palladium (compared to Gold) and its strong long term buy bias.
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