Bitcoin Adjusted For Commodity & M2SLChart shows historical price of Bitcoin adjusted against both the Global Commodity Price Index and M2SL, and may serve as a visual aid to illustrate Bitcoin price adjusted for rise in commodity prices while taking into account increase in money supply.
This chart therefore accentuates and magnifies the recent downturn by taking into account both rising commodity prices due partially to increase in Money Supply and money supply increase itself. One could make the case that this chart distorts the price of Bitcoin. One could also make the case that the chart illustrates Bitcoin's shortcomings as an inflation hedge.
Regression analysis shows retrace from cycle ATH to ATL becoming more severe with each downturn. By this measure, we might try to look for 88% retrace on this chart.
PALLFNFINDEXQ
Global Commodity Price Index versus SPXCommodities are basic good used in commerce of primary origin, produced on a large scale and used as raw materials by various economic agents.
Examples are soy, corn, cotton, meat, oil, natural gas, wood and water.
They are classified, according to their origin, into agricultural, livestock, mineral and environmental.
Its main function is the supply of raw materials for the production of industrialized goods.
Its commercialization works, according to the international market, through negotiations carried out on stock exchanges.
They are of paramount importance for the supply of primary goods for the functioning of society.
(Mundo Educação - UOL)
This index represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market.
They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity.
Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars.
(fred.stlouisfed.org)
This index is at an all-time high, due to the high cost of energy and the world apocalyptic scenario.
The Stochastic RSI on the monthly chart is about to cross downwards.
Allied to this, the correlation with SPX is decreasing, which could indicate an important moment.
Historically, when these two technical events happened (stochastic crossing down and correlation falling), there was a sharp drop in SPX.
This can be seen in the red circles.