Get started

Palmoil

CPO Unstoppable Rocket? Or…. Ranging?What’s other factors would continue to move palm oil prices? 1. India imports hit 12-months low on sky high prices in CPO. This may led to demand further decline as buyers are price sensitive as it relies on imports for 60% of its needs. Currently, India rely on existing stockpiles and incoming domestic rapeseed crop to meet domestic demand 2. Revision of export restriction from Indonesia as food protectionism grows. Companies need to allocate 30% of exports for home market. Government are taking steps to safeguard domestic food supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 3. Malaysia announced, the border restrictions is entering endemic phase start from 1st of April 2022 , which also means that more foreign workers arrive in May and June. 4. Soybean oil lower after USDA (United States of Department Agriculture) monthly forecasts showed world soybean supplies above expectations. 5. Declined in crude oil prices reduce demand for biodiesel blending. Technical View: 1. Again shooting star formed as profit taking after touched on historical high at 7268 which indicate sell signal. 2. Stochastic K% line is moving up in weekly and crossed up in daily chart which indicates market likely to resume its uptrend We have mixed signals this week. We expect market may move within range of 6500-7100. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 6600 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6783 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 6417 TP2 6051 Long if stay above 7000 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6817 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 7183 TP2 7549 ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
CPO Continue above 7000? Or Ready for Correction?FCPO declined by nearly 8% on last Friday and closed at 6276 as profit taking took place, but posted 2nd weekly gains after touched on historical high at 7108. So, what’s make palm oil now the costlier edible oil among the 4 major edible oils? Global commodities rallied following EU bans certain Russian banks from SWIFT bank payment system which aimed to stuttering the Russia economy and introduces further restrictions. The war expected to disrupt the processing and export of Ukraine oilseeds crops for at least 1 month and curb flow of sunflower seed to the European Union. 2. India’s reserve is facing a depletion in stocks levels with a lack of shipments of sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region. India requested Indonesia temporary reduce their biodiesel blending rules and increase the exports to mitigate disrupted supplies of sunflower oil. 3. Rising concerns on adequate palm supply levels for post-Ramadan restocking. While expectations of higher productions in coming months as high output cycle kicks in and government also announced new migrant workers to work in plantation sector capped gains. 4. Soybean oil prices closed lower as profit taking and rainfall in Brazil and Argentina eased dry weather conditions. Technical View: 1. Shooting star formed at resistance level of 7100, which indicates market losing uptrend momentum and also a reversal signal 2. Stochastic K% line is crossing down in both weekly and daily chart which indicates downtrend signal We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5825 Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 6200 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6365 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 6035 TP2 5705 Long if stay above 6800 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6635 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6965 TP2 7295 **Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks**
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
1
FCPO continue 6400 or Short Term Correction?FCPO set their biggest weekly gains in more than 9 months despite a sharp drop on Friday, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine stoked worries about global edible oil supply. I believe who traded last week hopefully you were enjoy the roller coaster ride in the market. For your information, Ukraine is a major key supplier of grains and oilseeds globally, any further threats to trade will shift demand for other vegetable oil such as SBO and CPO. As we all knew that the unresolved Ukraine crisis may further erode the supply of vegetable oil, grains, crude and natural gas due to the grain flows disruption in Black Sea export region with all transportation avenue were disrupted by military operation. Besides, India stopped buying sunflower oil following ports suspended operation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India pivot to alternate oils could further support Malaysian palm oil and US soyoil. On the other hand, surging in COVID cases also keep palm oil prices elevated for 1H2022 as shortage of labour and supplies. Furthermore, worsening yields in Argentina and Brazil pushed importers to buy from alternative supplier. Technical View: Market uptrend remains with immediate support at 5825. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart which indicates reversal signal We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5625 Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5885 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6023 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 5747 TP2 5471 Long if stay above 6200 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6062 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6338 TP2 6614 ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
Reversal Signs Continue in Palm Oil MarketFCPO closed higher at 5539 after gap filled at 5612 by last Friday but posted weekly losses. What were the factors that caused crude palm oil prices struggling to maintain above 5800? 1. India reduce farm infrastructure tax on CPO to 5%, which will effective until Sept 30, with the objective to increase gap between CPO and refined palm oil to benefit the domestic refining industry. 2. Uncertainties over Ukraine crisis lead market to stay vigilant on possible rising tensions. 3. Better production forecast for 1st half of Feb limited the upside of palm oil prices 4. Soybean Oil continue to move higher as concerns over weather forecast and fire incident broke in US biodiesel plant at Claypool, Indiana. Furthermore, India acquire massive purchase on soybean oil as high soybean price for local crushers to reduce output. 5. Crude Oil prices extended losses as prospects of extra supply from Iran. Weaker crude make palm less attractive option for biodiesel feedstock. 6. Near month spread widen as traders foresee East Malaysia production remains weak for Feb. Technical View: Market reversal signs remains. Gravestone doji formed in Daily Chart after market tried to move higher but sell down by the market. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5350. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5550 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5625 Target Profit (support level) TP1 5425 TP2 5345 TP 5245
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
Reversal Signs in Palm Oil Market?Market closed slightly higher at 5573 last Friday after tighter range move. Some key factors continue to weigh on palm oil prices: 1. Indonesia had expanded its export permit requirement for palm oil products where exporters must sell 20% of their exports at home and with price cap to other derivatives. This further raising fears of global supply disruptions. The regulation valid from Feb 15. 2. Latest Malaysia Palm Oil Board data showed lower inventories and production due to labor shortage and flooding; lower exports due to rising palm oil prices However, analysts’ expectations that current high price not sustainable 3. some participants expecting production to pick up in March as Malaysia Government targeting full scale reopening of international border 4. . Soybean oil continued uptrend, as LaNina brought in hot weather across key South America growing areas and strong demand on US soybean 5. Strong crude oil prices amid ongoing worries about supply disruptions from the Russia and Ukraine crisis Technical View: 1. Market uptrend paused with hanging man formed at resistance level of 5750, indicates reversal signal 2. Stochastic reached overbought level and K% line is crossing down which signalled reversal signal We expect market may have short term retracement if market unable to stay above 5500. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5365 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5478 Target Profit (support level) TP1 5252 TP2 5026 Long if stay above 5685 Target Stop Loss (support level) 5572 Target Profit (resistance level) TP1 5798 TP2 6024
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
Palm Oil Hit Historical High 5639Palm oil prices closed higher at 5628 after hit historical high at 5639. Factors continue to affect palm oil prices: 1. Indonesia finalize their export restriction plan which set 20% local supply rule for palm oil exporters effective from last Thursday (27 Jan 2022). Government also implement price cap on local sales of CPO and palm olein, effective from 1st Feb 2022. 2. Soybean oil stayed firm on Ukraine Crisis amid fears of potential supply disruption due to military action from Russia to Ukraine. 3. Traders selling in far months and shipments from India and China dropped likely to limit the upside of the market. Technical View: 1. Market remained bullish. 2. Stochastic reached overbought level We expect market may face some profit taking activities due to shortened week and thin trading volume. Suggestion Trade: Long if stay above 5625 Target Stop Loss (support level) 5400 Target Profit (resistance level) TP1 5725 TP2 5825
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by happytrading96
FTSE FCPO Palm Crude Oil Futures #FCPO #FCPO1!Palm Crude Oil Futures FCPO short-term still looking bullish. Profit Chip of PFT indicator at 38%, if surpass 50% greater chance to reach upper trend line resistance @5500 Bull Bear Energy (BBD) indicator show Dark Green bar turning into Light Green (momentum turns weak) - short term correction on way. #fcpo #fcpo1! #bursasaham #palmoilfutures #commodities #tradingfutures #ftseklci #technicalanalysis #technicalindicator #technicalchart #mcdx #bbd #trendline #chartpattern Disclaimer: This published Idea is solely for the purpose of opinion sharing only, and should not be used as investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Get your trade advise from a legit broker, your trade is solely your own responsibility. Thank you.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by wayne3355
CPO Extended Gains to Record HighPalm oil prices gone up higher as expected and closed at 5322 after posted record high at 5327. Factors continue to affect palm oil prices: 1. New export permit policy in Indonesia which required exporters of vegetable oil to gain approval for their shipments and declare their domestic sales with the objective to ensure that sufficient supply of cooking oils in domestic market. New regulation may curb supplies from Indonesia and led buying spree in Malaysia. Besides, India likely to shift their imports to soybean and sunflower oils as replacement. 2. Bullish sentiment in global oil market continue to support palm oil prices. 3. Strong gains in soybean oil following latest weather forecast that turned into hot and dry weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil which may result further yield deterioration. Technical View: 1. Market break new high and closed above 5300 2. Stochastic remains uptrend signal Suggestion Trade: Long if stay above 5300 Target Stop Loss (support level) 5100 Target Profit (resistance level) TP1 5425 TP2 5525 TP3 5625
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by happytrading96
FCPO Continue RallyPalm oil prices posted gains and closed at 5123, after touched on resistance at 5164. For your information, FCPO January contract expired last Friday. Next Monday onwards will be started to trade on FCPO April contract. Factors continue to affect palm oil prices: 1. Market remained concerns over labour shortages which caused lower palm oil production. 2. Price movement in related vegetable oils as they compete for a share in global vegetable oils market. 3. India edible oil imports in 2022 expected to fall by 2% as the country boost domestic production, said Malaysian Palm Oil Council at an industry conference. 4. Malaysia Biodiesel Association urged industry officials to come to terms with steady decline in imports of palm-based biofuels in European Union following its decarbonization agenda. 5. Stronger Ringgit Malaysia pressured as overseas buyers find it costlier to purchase Malaysia CPO. Technical View: 1. Market closed above 4900 2. Stochastic shows K% line crossed up which indicates uptrend signal. Suggestion Trade: Long if stay above 5000 Target Stop Loss (support level) 4850 Target Profit (resistance level) TP1 5100 TP2 5200 TP3 5300 Happy Trading!! Cheers. ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO2!Long
by happytrading96
CPO Breaking Historical High 5220Palm Oil prices extended gains and closed sharply higher at 4993. As market eyeing on upcoming MPOB data to assess the impact on production from flooding in recent weeks disrupting harvesting activities . MPOB data is scheduled to release its Dec data on Monday. Factors continue to affect palm oil prices: 1. Ongoing flash floods in several states continue to weigh on palm oil prices 2. Seasonal low production cycle during the 1st half year with higher demand expected ahead of Chinese New Year. 3. Labor Shortage remained key issue 4. Higher CPO prices raising worries over stiff competition from Indonesia 5. Persistent supply concerns in Soybean Oil due to hot and dry weather in South America served support in palm oil prices Technical View: 1. Market closed sharply higher at 4993, right below level of 5000 2. Stochasctic shows K% line is crossing up which indicates market turning up and resume uptrend. We expect market continue to move higher if market stays above level of 5000. Suggestion Trade: Long if stay above 5000 Target Stop Loss (support level) 4850 Target Profit (resistance level) TP1 5100 TP2 5250 TP3 5350
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by happytrading96
1
Palm Oil Upside Continue?Palm oil prices extended gains and closed higher at 4697 Technical view: Market holding well at 4600 Market likely to move within the range of 4600-5220 Stochastic level: Market move towards mid level which indicates sideway range signal in the market Suggestion Trade: Market expect to move in range to upward bias ahead of Malaysia Palm Oil Board data release (10 Jan 2022) Initial Long if market stays above or near support level at 4600 Stop Loss (Support level) 4465 Target Profit (Resistance level) TP1 4900 TP2 5000 TP 5100 Initial Short if near resistance level at 5100 Stop Loss (Resistance level) 5230 Target Profit (Support level) TP1 4700 TP2 4600 TP 4500 Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks. Happy Trading!! Cheers.
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
Can Palm Oil Prices Hold at 4000?Palm oil prices slumped and closed at 4408. Last week palm oil prices broken support level at 4700 and touched on weekly low at 4245. There were several factors we can look into: 1. Market plunged about 4.5% on Wed after cargo surveyor reported larger than expected drop in export 2. Price movement in global vegetable oils market also affected palm oil prices 3. Stronger crude oil prices has make palm oil prices more attractive 4. Tightening production due to labor shortage continue serve support to palm oil prices 5. Stronger dollar and weakening Ringgit Malaysia also helps in palm oil prices Technical view: 1. Long Black bar formed which indicates bearish signs 2. support level at 4500 broken, market further test support level at 4200 3. Stochastic level= remain bearish sign Suggestion Trade: maintain bearish view for FCPO next week with immediate resistance level at 4545 Initial Short if market below 4545 Stop Loss (Resistance level) 4845 Target Profit (Support level) TP1 4200 TP2 4025 TP 3875
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
Can CPO Sustain Above 4500?Palm oil plunged as expected last week. Market hit weekly low at 4567 and closed at our 1st resistance level. Main reason of the weakness in CPO market due to the uncertainties over the impact Omicron coronavirus variant which dented demand for CPO. Technical view: 1. Immediate resistance level: 4700-4730 2. Stochastic level= Sell Signal remain Suggestion Trade: Initial Short position Stop Loss at resistance level: 5000-5100 Target Profit level (support level) S1 4500 S2 4385-4400 S3 4200 Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks. Happy Trading, Cheers.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
Palm Oil Breaking Ranging level 4700-5220?Palm Oil market has been ranging for the past few weeks: Reasons behind as below: 1. Rising in new COVID-19 cases in Europe (- export demand= price drop) 2. Weakness in Crude Oil and Soybean Oil (- demand= price drop) 3. Weather concerns (- supply = price up) 4. Labor shortage (- supply = price up) 5. RM weakening (+ demand = price up) Technical View: 1. Strong resistance level at 5000 2. Stochastic at Overbought level, K% & D% line cross down (Sell sign) Suggestion Trade: Short Stop Loss (Resistance level) 5220 Target Profit (Support level) 4650, 4500, 4385-4400 Happy Trading!! Cheers. ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
1
When will FCPO STOP Ranging 4750-5220?Palm oil markets has been ranging between 4750-5220 since Oct 2021, topics remained hot within the palm oil industry including 1. labor force shortage, 2. global supply and demand concerns amid resurgence in COVID-19 cases especially in Europe. Uncertainty in 3. related edible oil due to weather concerns and 4. OPEC+ decisions to maintains its output which continued to serve support in palm oil industry. Furthermore, 5. dollar strengthened helped to made palm oil prices more attractive compare to other vegetables oils. Palm oil market likely to continue maintain its ranging until weightage in issues mentioned above showed unbalance. Trading Strategies remained neutral, or you may initiate ranging trading strategies. Long when near support 4750-4850 Short when near resistance 5100- 5220 Good Luck & Happy Trading. Cheers
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
Palm Oil Marching towards 5220 ???Palm oil bounced as bargain buying and persistent sentiment of tight supply moving into Nov and Dec. Technical Views: 1. CPO prices landed at support level of 4500 and bounce 2. Uptrend Line Well holding 3. Stochastic maintain uptrend signal In short, maintain ranging to uptrend view in coming week. immediate support level 4500 immediate resistance level 5220 if unable to break resistance level, double top may form and led to another selling trend. Good Luck and Happy Trading~ Cheers
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by happytrading96
FCPO1 (Palm Oil) - Mid Term Technical AnalysisWe expect a decrease in PALM and there are 3 reasons for this; The first of these is that we believe that Shoulder-Head-Shoulder formation occurs in PALM. The second reason is that the 70.10.10 Stochastic Indicator intersects from above. The last reason is the large Negative Mismatch on RSI. As a result, we expect the prices to decline to 2500 levels in the short/medium term. However, if the prices rise again, the first levels we will follow will be 3980 and around. It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by EmoteK
FCPO Q1 Outlook: Sideways-Up to ATH 4.4k-4.8k 📈🐮Technicals Major S: 3.6-3.7k (nearest support) ; 3.2-3.4k (prev consolidation range) Major R: 3.8-3.9k ; 4-4.2k ; 4.4k (ATH) ; 4.8k (Weekly breakout projection) 👇🏻 Prev idea on potential CPO New Bull Cycle: 👇🏻 Dec Bullish Call on CPO: 🔔 Q1 Risk Factor to Watch: Covid, Reinstating/further extension of MCO , Political instability (Malaysia), US President transition, US-China trade war (soybean oil deals), Geopolitical tension in Iran/Taiwan I'm Long bias for FCPO in 1Q2021, looking to initiate Long positions shall Major S holds. Happy Hunting! 🥂🚀 -jk-
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by jeanne_k
Weekend Update – 18 Oct 20 | FCPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil, FXWeekend Market Update – 18 Oct 2020 | FCPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil, Currencies and Others Take note that the updates here are 2 days late. If you would like the latest updates, please visit palmanalysis dot com Review Let’s start the report with a review of the past 2 weeks. 1) In my last update on the 4th Oct, I expected: On Soybean i. On Point 13 ii, I favored slightly higher Soybean prices due to the relative strength, and we did see higher prices in the 3rd week of Oct, and prices had a pullback last week. On Soybean Oil ii. On Point 46 ii, for Soybean oil to complete its second leg down and if the support at 31-29 holds and to see the strength in the subsequent bounce iia. Price found support at 31.50 and had a good bounce. It then had a slight pullback last week. On FCPO iii. On Point 46 iii, To see FCPO 2 legged pullback to 2800-2650-00, and then a re-test higher, and would want to see if the re-test of the highs is strong or weak . iiia. Price found support at 2690, and the first leg of the re-test was quite strong going back up to 3000 by the 12/13th of Oct. It has pulled back slightly since then. On RMB and INR iv. On Point 46 iv, I want to see RMB and INR strengthen – We have that in RMB but INR is Flat On Dollar Index v. I expected the Dollar Index to find support around 93-93.50 – Price found support at 93 and had a bounce last week. You can refer to the Weekend Updates – 4 Oct 2020 | CPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil & Currencies here. What’s up ahead? Soybean Monthly 2) In my last update On Point 6, I said that price would attempt to break above the highs of Sept and test the top of the trading range around 1080-1100. i. Price tested very close with a high in Oct at 1079. Price has pulled back since and price is currently trading in the middle of the month’s range with another half a month to go. 3. i. Bears wants price to close below the middle of the month or as low as possible and to have a candle with a bear body. ii. Bull on the other hand wants a strong retest of the 1080-1100 top of the multiyear trading range and break strongly above it to test the highs of 2016 around 1170-1200. Let’s look at the weekly chart. Soybean Weekly 4) So far prices is still in a tight bull channel which is strength in the buyers. i. It looks to me that we are forming a spike and channel bull trend, and in the process of forming a wedge push up – with second Oct week push being the second push up in the wedge. ii. If this is true, we could see another push up in the next 1-2 weeks – the bulls wants a strong close above the 1080 top of the multiyear trading range; iii. The bears on the other hand wants price to fail at the top of the trading range and reverse down instead. iv. The current bar is a bear bar but with a big tail below, which is a weak sell signal bar. If price trade below last week’s low, we may see more buyers than sellers below. 5) I do feel the overall global picture is a bit murky at this moment due the the following factors i. If we have dollar start strengthening in the next 1-2 weeks, it is generally bad for equities and commodities. ii. However we have to take note that in Sept, the Dollar strengthened and equities fell, but Soybean bucked the trend and went up instead, which is showing relative strength. The story behind the up move was strong demand from China. iii. So we have to monitor whether a) Dollar continue to strengthen or weaken (weaken is good for commodities like Soybean/ Soybean Oil / Palm) or Strengthen, and b) if strengthen, will Soybean follow into weakness or buck the trend yet again like Sept? 6) For now, as price is still in a tight bull channel, I suspect we may see a little bit more pull back, and then a 3rd leg up to form for the wedge pattern. Daily Soybean 7) On the Daily chart, we see price consolidating in a small sideways trading range between 1030-1080 in the last 1 and half week. i. This potentially sets up a final bull flag – which if true, means there should be another small sideways to up leg from here. 8) We do see some bear bar, but no significant selling pressure as there were no consecutive bear bears since Oct started. i. We will have to monitor on this point to see if selling pressure develops next week. Soybean Oil Monthly 9) So far Oct is the first pullback following a 5 month micro bull channel. The monthly chart so far is a doji bar which means the bulls and bears are currently in balance around these prices. i. Notice last month was also a doji bar which means balance around these prices of 32.70-33.30 range. ii. The bulls wants the monthly bar to close above the middle of the bar, as high as possible, while the bear on the other hand wants prices to close below the middle of the bar and as low as possible. iii. With 2 more weeks to go, the bars can look very different by the end of the month. Soybean Oil Weekly 10. Last week closed as a bear bar, which is a sell signal bar for the bears. i. I think it is fair to say we will see bears attempt to push prices below the low of last week to attempt the second leg down for Soybean Oil which started in Sept. Will they succeed? We have to look at a few other factors such as: ia. The Dollar 1b. How strong soybean is holding up ii. If the bears get their way, we may see SBO test back the 31.50. iii. The bulls on the other hand wants to see the breakout below last week’s low to fail, and then reverse up for a second leg up which started in the second week of Oct. Soybean Oil Daily 11) So far on the daily chart, it looks to me that the whole of last week was a 2 legged pullback against the stronger 2 legged bull leg which started in Oct 5 to Oct 9. i. Price is currently consolidating around the 20ema area, which is the average price traders are looking at. Notice that the bounce during the end of Sept also tested this area of 33. 12) Both the bulls and bears look like they each have credible setup. i. The bears have a double top second leg down sell setup, while; ii. The bulls have a second leg up from the Oct 5-9 bull leg. iii. With credible setup for both the bulls and bears, this is classic indication for trading range price action. Neither the bulls nor the bears have a strong edge at the moment. iv. We will have to look at other factors to give us slightly more information which we will cover below. Dalian Palm Olein Monthly 13) On the Dalian Palm Olein Chart, so far the monthly chart, price is trading near the lows after gaping up after the long holiday break. i. Price has a prominent tail above, which also indicates profit taking towards the higher prices traded. Notice last month also had a prominent tail above. It indicates that prices are finding sellers near the high of the multiyear trading range. ii. With 2 weeks to go, the monthly chart could still look very different from now. iii. The bears wants price to trade lower and for prices to close with a bear body and a big tail above. That would setup a strong sell for Nov. iv. Then bulls on the other hand wants the trend which started in May to continue as price is still trading in a bull micro channel. Let’s look at the weekly chart. Dalian Palm Olein Weekly 14) Last week closed as a doji looking bar with a small bear body with prominent tails above and below the bar. i. So far, the bull channel is quite tight, but prices are trading near the top of the multi year trading range. ii. Price is currently trading near in the middle of the 4-5 weeks sideways trading range which is a sign of balance. iii. When prices are in a trading range, traders reverse from buying to selling every few days, and credible setup tends to disappoint both the bull and bears. Not much clarity on the weekly chart too. Let’s see what’s up on the Daily Chart. Dalian Palm Olein Daily 15) On the daily chart, last Friday traded lower, then back up and closed the day with a prominent tail below. i. The bulls will be asking if this is the pullback from the Oct leg up, which will be followed by another leg up? ii. While the bears on the other hand are asking if this is the continuation down for the second leg which started at 22 Sept? 16) I think we need another few more days price action to have more clarity on this. i. Should price trade back up from here, traders will assume that the sell off from last week was simply a pullback which will be followed with a second leg up. ii. If price continue to trade lower, then traders will assume that the second leg down from the Sept sell off is resuming. 17) With both a credible buy and sell setup, this is classic trading range price action – the price action disappoint the bulls and bears every few days. i. I am slightly more leaning towards the bullish case due to the lower palm production this month. Not much clarity here either. Let’s look at FCPO below. FCPO Monthly 18) So far on the monthly chart, Oct traded below the low of Sept early in the month and found buyers there. i. Price is still trading above its middle of the bar, and has a bull body with a tail above. Currently price still slightly favors the bulls. ii. With 2 more weeks to go, the bar could look very different by the end of the month. iii. Price still remained in a tight bull channel for now which is a sign of strength for the buyers. Weekly FCPO 19) Price closed this week as a bear bar, which is a sell signal bar for next week. i. The bears are looking at last week’s bear bar as the sell signal bar for a second leg down from a double top with Sept’s high. ii. The bulls on the other hand sees last week’s pullback as the pullback for a second leg up. iii. Both the bulls and the bears have a credible setup, which is classic trading range price action. Daily FCPO 20) Price closed as a small bull bar with a prominent tail above. i. The bears see the 15 Oct sell of as the start of the second leg down from the end of Sept sell off. Another few more day’s price action should give us the clarity we need to see if this second leg fails. ii. The bulls on the other hand sees last week’s sell of as the pullback from the strong Oct 5 to Oct 12 leg up, and should the bears fail to resume their second leg down next week, the bull will assume their case has more merits and will buy the pullback for a second leg up to retest the highs of the trading range. Other issues effecting Palm Oil. 21 i. Production trend looks like it is heading lower this month between the range of -5% to -10% or more. This is a bullish factor for the bulls. ii. Exports for the first 15 days shows slightly down -2% to -3% against Sept, but you have to remember, Sept was up 12-13% against Aug. This means, the exports for Oct is not that bad if compared to Aug levels, just slightly lower than last month. iii. So far, no significant rain nor flood effecting palm. Let’s look at the currencies. Dollar Index – DXY 22) So far the Dollar continued its pullback to 93-93.50 as we have expected. It then bounce last week, trading slightly above 93.50. i. As I have said previously, a strong dollar is bad for commodities such as SB, SBO, Palm. ii. Price is currently trading at the bear trend line and I will be monitoring if there is another leg down to test 93 again, before we have a big strong bounce up to 95-96 area, or, iii. If prices continue to trade up from here. Remember, a strong Dollar is bad for SB, SBO, Palm. 23) In my last update on Point 47) I wrote that – is it possible where we see the Dollar Index strengthen but Palm prices still holds and not drop much? Answer is yes, its possible. Why? i. What if production levels drops off significantly? This is good for bulls. ii. What if it starts to rain at any moment, we see severe flooding in ffb production states and disrupts harvest? This is good for bulls. (though there are no signs of this right now) iii. What if exports figures are good? This is good for bulls. (So far exports are slightly lower than Sept, but still much higher than Aug) iv. What if the Dollar index strengthen against other currencies, but remains weak against RMB and INR? This is also good for SB/SBO/Palm. iv. So a strengthening Dollar Index does not necessarily equals lower Palm Prices. We need to see it in relation to the RMB, INR, local productions, demand and related factors. So I will be monitoring the Dollar in conjunction with Point 23 above. USD/Chinese Yuan 24) Happy note for Chinese Soybean buyers. The RMB continues to strengthen against the Dollar. This is supportive for Soybean purchases. i. I would like to see the RMB continue to strengthen or at least stays flat and not weaken against the USD. Indian Rupee/USD 25) The Indian rupee mostly traded sideways – flat. i. I would like to see an INR that is strengthening or at least flat and not weakening against the USD. USD/MYR 26) The Ringgit was mostly flat in the month of Oct, it strengthened very slightly. i. I would like to see a Ringgit that is weakening or at least stays flat against the Dollar. ii. If the Ringgit is strengthening against the Dollar, then I would like to see the RMB & INR also strengthening as much or more relatively. Other Factors to look at: Crude Oil 27) In my last update, I said that I would like to see Crude start ticking higher after testing support around 36 – 34 area. i. Price held around the 36.60 area and didn’t trade lower and bounce from there. ii. Price is trading around the 41 area which is the high of the recent trading range area. iii. Price attempted to sell off 2 times on last Thurs and Friday, but reversed back up, with large prominent tail below. 28) I would like to see crude continue to trade higher as it indicates a stronger overall world economic conditions – more cars on the road, more flying, more energy usage for economic output. A weaker crude oil is generally not supportive for commodities prices such as SBO and Palm. Other, Other Factors to look at: 28) There is a presidential election in the USA in the 3rd Nov. i. We have to keep this date in mind because it could move the Dollar in either direction which will effect commodities prices. 28a. On Covid Cases. i. The western world in heading into the fall/winter months which experts believe Covid cases will increase due to people spending more time indoors. ii. We are already seeing spikes in cases in France, Spain and other countries. iii. Remember we had a state election in Sabah, and cases in Malaysia just boomed? iv. Well, the USA election is on the 3rd Nov. What if it happened like Sabah, and the election in USA caused cases to spike uncontrollably to 100k to 200k or more daily cases? Something to watch out for. Summary 29) So far from the charts, this week, prices are much more murky and unclear than previous few weeks. i. There are credible buy and sell setup for the bulls and bears, with each not having a large edge against the other. ii. This is classic trading range price action – in trading range, people sell high, and buy low of the trading ranges. iii. The currencies offer slightly better picture because RMB is strengthening against the USD, and we will monitor if this will support SB prices next week. iiia. We have to also monitor if RMB can continue to maintain these levels or if it weakens back against the USD. A weakening RMB I think will not be supportive of Soybean Prices. iv. Not much to see from Indian Rupee as it has been trading Flat against the USD – just slightly higher v. Ringgit strengthen slightly against the USD also – I prefer to see a weaker Ringgit in the next 1-2 weeks. 30) What I am monitoring: i. If Dollar have another small leg down to create a double bottom at 93 before rallying – (if it rallies at all) ii. FCPO – Whether the selling price action from last week was merely just a pullback before a second leg up. iia. With production being so tight, there is a chance of this happening – even against a strengthening dollar. iii. Soybean – If we see another leg up to complete the 3rd leg of the wedge pattern to retest the 1080-1100 top of the trading range. iv. Soybean Oil – whether the sell of last week was merely just a 2 legged pullback, before the second leg up in Oct resumes. We should have more clarity with a few more day’s price action. I am slightly leaning towards the bulls case for a small sideways to up move in the next 1-2 weeks. With more information, I may change this stance and will update accordingly. From the above, it should more or less give you some context to the current state of the market conditions. Should there be no major changes from my analysis above, I will update again next weekend. Trade safe, and I welcome any feedback from you. Best Regards, Tech Trader
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88