FCPO - Eye on Export DataPalm oil had dropped almost 150 points in just two weeks time as concern on rising inventory. In fact, demand were surprisingly good during the first 15 days of September. The first 20 days export data is due on today. Trader please be cautious if the continue strong demand will trigger potential price rebound if market have overdone. Speculation of 3.3 m inventory by Dorab still uncertain with surprised demand.
On the left chart showing a 2 months chart, the horizontal line in orange plot at 2013 Jul low 2137, If you look at the the entire chart, price did not trade lower than this for almost a decade except 2014 to 2015. As price near to this level, market is expect to be volatile. Meantime,
In technical view, price may initiate rebound with nearing long term price zone 2137. Market is expect to open higher with Soyoil increased 1.36% from yesterday 6 pm closing of Bursa FCPO1!. And price have achieved 7 multiples of golden ratio at 2158 (see right chart)
If rebound, resistance at 2175 to 2187.
If open gap up, price may fill the gap and trend remain favorable to selling.
If open gap up, price do not fill the gap fully, price factoring in potential strength for rebound.
Stay tune for intraday updates in the same post.
Palmoil
FCPO - Sideway before MPOB Data ReleaseImpulsive swing target 2337 remain in FCPO price projection as long as price above 2262. The latest MPOB Aug survey data suggesting increase in inventory with CIMB released the most bearish survey data. As long holiday ahead, and MPOB data to release at 12 Sep after holiday. The market is expect to be trading sideway.
Bloomberg Poll Aug vs Jul MPOB:
Prodn 1.65m vs +1.50m (+10%)
Expt 1.24m vs 1.21m (+2.5%)
Stks 2.41m vs 2.21m (+9%)
Reuters Poll:
Prodn 1.65m (+9.88%)
Impt 50k
Expt 1.23m (+2.25%)
LDsp 270k
Stks 2.41m (+8.96%)
CIMB Poll:
Prodn 1.681m (+11.8%)
Impt 44k
Expt 1.236m (+2.5%)
LDsp 239k
Stks 2.464m (+11.3%)
FCPO daily chart Gap Up and bullish may continue to 0.0% levelFCPO daily opens gap up due to fundamentals, following CBOT bullish momentum and Indonesia palm oil stockpile down m/m.
Another reason of reversal was price hit the bottom trendline from Chart W1.
Price may move in ranges if it reaches 0.0% level.
FCPO COMPLEX CORRECTION WAVE 4 COMPLETE??FCPO ELLIOTT WAVE DAILY CHART ANALYSIS
Complex correction of wave 4 forming WXY double combo.
Where X wave = triangle , X = 3 structure & Y = irregular flat.
For this counting, im assuming the cycle of wave 4 already complete and expecting the decline movement from 2498 to unfold into five wave movement and my next target is at 2255 area.
Long DKL from Multidiagonal BreakoutThe initial breakout here was actually earlier in 2017, but now that the upper diagonal (that was acting like a price ceiling) has been taken out, I think we could be due a bull run here.
On this rare occasion I also have fundamental research notes too:
themaskedstocktrader.blogspot.co.uk
CLX: Clorox bleeding cash, structural shortI think this is a really good short setup. The company is bleeding cash, funding their huge dividend with debt, not complying with regulations regarding the usage of sustainable palm oil on their products and the technical chart shows an ideal entry against resistance here.
The entry is very tactical, a perfect technical setup, paired with bad fundamentals for this company, with only a 1% earnings yield, a 1.2% free cash flow yield, and falling free cash flow and after tax margins.
Good luck if taking it.
Ivan Labrie.