Copper: the irreplaceable raw material for renewable energyCopper is one of the few elements that has been used by humans for over 10,000 years. Archaeological evidence suggests that copper was first discovered and utilised by ancient civilisations as early as 9000 BCE1. Its malleability, durability, and excellent conductivity made it highly prized for tools, weapons, and decorative objects. Copper's rich history as a valuable and versatile metal showcases its enduring significance and timeless appeal.
Today, copper’s importance in the global economy continues to rise, especially given the boom in renewable energy. Copper is an excellent conductor of electricity, making it an ideal material for renewable energy systems. Its high electrical conductivity allows for efficient energy transfer, minimising power losses during transmission and distribution. Moreover, copper's unparalleled malleability and ductility, which refer to its ability to be easily shaped and stretched without breaking, make it incredibly challenging to substitute with other materials.
High intensity in wind and solar
Today, wind and solar are among the most mainstream forms of renewable energy. The figure below shows how much more copper is required when generating power from offshore wind (wind turbines in the seas), onshore wind (wind turbines on land), and solar photovoltaic (PV) compared to fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.
Copper is extensively used in wind turbines. It is employed in generator coils, transformers, and electrical cables. The strong magnetic properties of copper enable efficient power generation and ensure reliable performance in wind turbine systems. Copper is also a crucial element in solar panels. It is used in the wiring, busbars2, and connectors within the panels. Copper's excellent electrical conductivity facilitates the efficient conversion of sunlight into electricity and supports the overall performance of solar energy systems.
For the power generated from renewables to ultimately be deployed effectively, electrical grid infrastructure and energy storage are also needed. Copper, once again, is integral in building both. In energy storage systems, which complement renewables by storing energy for days when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, copper is used in batteries and supercapacitors3. It is utilised in the conductive components, such as electrodes and current collectors, enhancing the efficiency and durability of energy storage devices. In electrical grid infrastructure, copper is extensively used in power cables, transformers, and distribution systems, ensuring the reliable transmission of electricity from renewable sources to end consumers.
Doing it sustainably
Copper is deemed to have infinite recyclability. This means that the metal does not lose any of its properties and can be used again and again. Recycled copper requires 85% less energy than primary production4. This highlights the huge environmental benefit of recycling the commodity.
Today, roughly a third of total copper production comes from recycling. This means that, as we scale up renewable energy, we must also bolster the recycling industry. Copper’s infinite recyclability will make that a fruitful endeavour.
The irreplaceable metal
In conclusion, copper stands as an irreplaceable raw material for renewable energy. Its exceptional electrical conductivity, second only to silver, positions copper as the ideal choice for efficient energy transfer in wind turbines, solar panels, energy storage systems, and electrical grid infrastructure. As the world embraces renewable energy on a larger scale, the demand for copper will continue to grow. And given its infinite recyclability, if the world deploys its resources appropriately, this growth can be sustainable.
Sources
1 Copper Development Association.
2 A busbar is a rigid conductor used for connecting several circuits.
3 Supercapacitor is an electronic device that store large amount of electric charge.
4 Copper Alliance.
Panels
An elusive quest for a silver liningSilver is underperforming gold. The gold-to-silver ratio is over 1 standard deviation above the historic average since 1990. In fact, the gold-to-silver ratio has not been close to its historic average since August 2021.
Silver falling more than gold
Gold prices in February 2023 gave back almost all its gains (-5.2%) from January 2023 (+5.8%) as the US dollar resumed an appreciation path and bond yields rose sharply1. However, silver fared even worse in February (-11.7%), after falling in January as well (-0.9%)2. As gold is often seen as a hedge for economic and financial uncertainty, it is receiving greater support than silver.
Silver, as a precious metal with more industrial uses than gold, is weighed by the uncertainty in the global economy as developed central banks are tightening monetary policy at a pace we have not witnessed in decades.
Good news is bad news
Complicating matters, today good economic news is often interpreted as bad news because markets are pricing in a reaction from central bankers that could sap economic growth from the future. Take the last Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Output index reading for example. The February 2023 reading rose to above 50 (50.8) for the first time since July 20223. A reading of 50 and above should be interpreted as manufacturing in expansion. Other things being equal that report should have been positive for industrial sentiment and silver prices. However, because markets interpreted this as cue for central banks to raise rates further and delay monetary loosening, silver prices reacted negatively.
This could be a sticking point for silver this year: being flanked by falling gold prices when Dollar and bond yields rise, being hurt by expectations of a delayed pivot by central banks, but not sharing enough of the upside for gold when markets are looking for defensive hedges.
Mixed picture in physical markets
Macroeconomic considerations aside, some silver fundamentals look strong. Photovoltaic (solar panel) installations are expected to grow by more than 25% this year according to Metals Focus. In 2022, photovoltaic demand accounted for 11.5% of total silver demand (up from 5.6% in 2012)4. Meanwhile jewellery demand is likely to be sluggish as silver in Rupee terms remain elevated (India is a large silver jewellery market).
Most silver supplies come as a by-product of mining for other metals. MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru was put on maintenance in February 2023, following violent protests in the country. A short-lived truce allowed for production to resume, but Andean communities in Peru restarted blockades this week5. The mine produces an estimated 5.7 million ounces of silver as a by-product annually. Lower silver supplies could support prices.
Conclusions
Macroeconomic headwinds have set silver prices back this year and may continue to do so as markets price in tighter monetary policy for longer. Silver may have a hard time catching the same defensive bid gold enjoys. Despite strength in photovoltaic demand, jewellery demand may be soft. Tighter mine supply may be price supportive but overcoming the macro headwinds will be key to silver breaking out of its current lull.
Solar panels etf green energy versus silver rocket!So the idea is based on a paired trade or what I think of as a hedged trade. Paired in that I am buying two things that I think may be correlated but both will not necessarily do well. If one does well the other may not do well and vice versa. My idea is to buy this solar energy etf as a hedge against all of the silver mining companies that I have perhaps foolishly invested in thinking that silver would go up one day! If I am wrong and silver remains depressed and even collapses further due to recessionary fears even a major depression perhaps, who knows. Anyway, if this turns bullish straight away which I do not expect but could happen then if we go over 130 on OBV and then find support there then I think go long there at least until proven otherwise. Otherwise look for support on OBV at 46 and if not there then 7.9 OBV. Worst case scenario if the world turns to custard, then it has to stop somewhere around -17.86. I would round it to -18 myself. On RSI we need to find support at 46, or 45, or 44. It may look like I am being indecisive but that is just where there is possible support levels. Below there on RSI there may be support at 39 and 36. We really need to break out of the downwards trending channel. I think breaking horizontal resistance will be more meaningful than breaking the trend lines of the channel. I think there is a very interesting looking triangle pattern that looks like it will break before 2025 or around that time at the latest. This then is my way of hedging my silver investments. Considering that silver is major component of solar panels and that if the price of silver goes down that has to be bullish for solar panel companies surely! Personally, I think that silver is hard to mine and is not that easy to find but with 70-80% of silver mined as a byproduct of other mining for base metals as well as precious metals then perhaps if there is a general boom in mining for green transition materials in particular funded by fiscal spending by governments buying votes through the green agenda then who knows it might work. Plus, if climate change is real and this is our do or die moment as a species it could all pan out. There's no alternative really. In terms of geopolitical events this could be a great hedge as well. If China and US have a war over Taiwan, then any investments in China could go down the tubes but once resolved then it would go back up maybe. China produces most of the solar panels in the world or at the least a high percentage. The main holdings in this etf many have Chinese names, so I am assuming that they are in China and probably in central Asia as well. Another thing that could be bullish is that volume is falling as price falls. It has based for a long period of time and there is potentially a cup and handle formation in the basing pattern as well. The fibonacci extensions are interesting as well. It found support at exactly the right place. It could be a bull flag.
How to connect your indicator with the Trade ManagerHi everyone
On Today's tutorial, I wanted to highlight how you can upgrade your own indicator to work with the Trade Manager
Let's take the dummy example of the double MM cross
Step 1 - Update your indicator
Somewhere in the code you'll have a LONG and a SHORT condition. If not, please go back to study trading for noobs (I'm kidding !!!)
So it should look to something similar
macrossover = crossover(MA1, MA2)
macrossunder = crossunder(MA1, MA2)
What you will need to add at the very end of your script is a Signal plot that will be captured by the Trade Manager. This will give us :
// Signal plot to be used as external
// if crossover, sends 1, otherwise sends -1
Signal = macrossover ? 1 : macrossunder ? -1 : na
plot(Signal, title="Signal")
The Trade Manager engines expects to receive 1 for a bullishg signal and -1 for bearish .
Step 2 - Add the Trade Manager to your chart and select the right Data Source
I feel the questions coming so I prefer to anticipate :) When you add the Trade Manager to your chart, nothing will be displayed. THIS IS NORMAL because you'll have to select the Data Source to be "Signal"
Remember our Signal variable from the Two MM Cross from before, now we'll capture it and.....drumb rolll...... that's from that moment that your life became even more AWESOME
The Engine will capture the last signal from the MM cross or any indicator actually and will update the Stop Loss, Take Profit levels based on the parameters you set on the Trade Manager
I worked the whole weekend on it because I wanted to challenge myself and give you something that I will certainly use in my own trading
Please send me some feedback or questions if any
Enjoy
Dave
Possible FSLR Short Term UptrendNASDAQ:FSLR has tanked lately do to China cutting incentives for solar energy in the rest of 2018. The market has reacted to the news and now the stock is very oversold. My outlook is for the stock to climb back up because of the strong volume shown in the last trading day.
Share your opinion, comments and questions. Good Luck!
I will keep updating this post.
SCTY RIDDING ITS RESISTANCE LINENASDAQ:SCTY is running its resistance line at 27.36. While it does seem to be also following its channel. With both trends in mind I would say SCTY may fall tomorrow, but still follow its resistance line until August 1st. It may start to increase slightly and then fall.
MBLY Is Starting To Form A HeadNYSE: MBLY is looking to form a head within the next 3-4 months. This head could form early as today (LOW HEAD), or could form later in the month of September (HIGH HEAD). Check it out.
SCTY High may stay till tomorrow or it may drop NASDAQ: SCTY may rise to around 27.40 by the end of trade on July 20th, before resistance takes over and starts to fall by July 21st. Or it may rise to a higher resistance level around 29.40. But the trend looks in favor of resistance at 27.40 where 29.40 was last reached back in April 12th 2016. Check it out.
US Silica - 4HR / Daily - LongUS Silica is a Fracking as well as a Solar Panel investment. Silica is used in both.
It appears to be the beginning of a major uptrend. Buy dips / corrections.