Psychology: Trade Smart - Focus on Facts, Not wishes!See the Truth: Trading Without Bias
Discover the critical importance of objective analysis in trading.
Learn how to avoid emotional biases, stay neutral, and focus on what the market truly shows you. This guide will help you improve your trading strategies and achieve more consistent results.
Panic
Metals Setup Apex "V" (PANIC) Bottom - Rally Will ContinueGold and Silver are setting up a nearly perfect deep "V" bottom after a bout of PANIC selling over the past few weeks. This sets up a move for Gold to rally above $2250 and Silver to rally above $28.50.
Ultimately, I believe Gold will exit the Setup Phase and peak in the next phase, the Breakaway Phase, above $2450. Silver will follow with a rally to levels above $31 as it moves away from the Setup Phase and peaks in the Breakaway Phase.
These are big moves for Gold and Silver - 15% to 25% or more.
This also sends a clear message to the general/global markets that traders are hedging the uncertainties of the conflicts and the central bank/global economy credit issues. I see the next 14 months, before the US POTUS elections (Nov 2024) and possibly a few months beyond, as very concerning for the US/Global markets.
Where will the economic growth come from to drive expansion? China is contracting. Asia is contracting. Europe is contracting. The US is still operating reasonably well, considering much higher interest rates. Canada is still holding up okay, considering an extremely over-inflated asset bubble.
How long before something breaks if the US Fed decides enough is enough and moves to PAUSE rate hikes?
I guess we won't see a pause in the US Fed until possibly May/June 2024. And that will drive a fear/hedging/panic cycle where USD assets and precious metals become an effective hedge against risks.
Pay attention. This next move in metals should be very explosive.
can you feel it? can you smell the change in the air?Can you smell what the market is cooking?
mmmm
Reward based behavior is term I learned this year for a concept Ive been studying for many years.
Behavioral finance.
The markets are wild because people are wild.
we get too greedy, then reality shifts. then we panic. then it shifts. and that panic was a fire sale. rinse and repeat.
because math is hard and those who dont know how to explain it to those who need to know.
its hard.
its another language.
Im not saying I know, but I am trying to let the knowledge seep in my dense monkey brain.
any who, panic is on the weather forecast.
have a good day.
kthanxbye.
TEARS FOR THOSE WHO DUMPED THEIR GOLD! Loads of traders - mainly gamblers and those on small time frames - were taken out by a panic in the Gold markets which were affected by bond markets and stock market flake out of 3,500 points (DJI).
True traders - not gamblers - had an idea what was going on.
In this screencast I show an opportunity to go long - subject to acceptable controlled losses - and based on probabilities arising from the technical picture at this time.
NOTE carefully that this is not advice or a guarantee. For every probability estimate in one direction, there is a residual probability in the opposite direction (to be managed by a stop-loss).
See also
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Stampeding panic in the cryptosphere - not unexpected.Well.. well, unless one is Rip-van-Winkle, it shouldn't be news that everybody is stampeding out of cryptos. Thankfully I made no predictions on Bitcoin or any crypto going north. There were indications of a probably pump north a couple weeks ago (and for every probability in one direction I said there is a probability in the opposite). So now we're into dump mode. In fact I entirely expected a dump based on the technical picture some time ago in another screencast.
In this screencast I go into the unthinkable, as a systematic probability - which most will see as highly remote. Well, that is exactly what systematic risk is about.
Bitcoin investors may wish to explore the concept of 'counter-party' risk, arising from a world global financial crisis (if it happens - no predictions).
So what next. There are three main possibilities (obviously).
1. Stay out.
2. Short it
3. Go long on it.
The choice is yours. No advice from me. Sorry if I disappoint.