Bottom of RSI channel + Fib confluence in NOKIAHi everyone. Trying my hand at stonks again.,
Nokia is showing a number of potential reversal signals.
For starters, Nokia gapped down and held the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement from the July 2012 correction rally. After that rally, Nokia had what I believe to be an ABC retracement downwards, with a target for "C" being $2.42. This correction sequence in my opinion is very reminiscent to a 3-3-5 Elliott Wave correction. 3 Waves up, 3 waves down, 5 waves up which would complete the bullish correction. If indeed we are looking at a 3-3-5 bullish correction sequence, we are either on the very last, or close to the very last wave downwards for this asset. Next would in theory be a powerful 5 wave impulse upwards to complete the 5 waves of the 3-3-5 correction.
My opinion for the measurement of the "C" wave of this final 3 ABC series is located at $2.42. The local low so far this past trading week is $2.34. We can see that there was a fairly sizable bullish candle after touching the 0.886 and 1.618 "C" wave retracement. In the RSI, notice how the bottom of the channel was respected. This has also now printed bullish divergence in the weekly chart from late 2019.
With Fibonacci, we now know that we have a potential "C" wave having completed at $2.42, as well as a bullish 0.886 retracement at roughly the same price range. Confluence!
On the 30m, we can clearly see the reactions that were present when these levels were hit:
The daily is showing 4 tests of the 0.886 and 1.618 retracements. The weekly RSI channel on the daily is showing that we briefly dipped below support, but were able to re-enter back above both oversold and the channel support. There is some bullish divergence from the 12th of March. This has been accompanied by heavily increasing overall volume. Currently, price is showing a spinning top doji after breaking above a triple top. The price increased from bottom to top by 20%.
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is showing consistent higher lows since late Oct 2016. These higher lows are accompanied by lower highs, which is in turn forming a symmetrical triangel. There are 3 touches of support and 3 touches of resistance so far. To validate a symmetrical triangle, rule of thumb is 3 touches each on both support and resistance. This will cause a very powerful move, whichever way it breaks. There is also a potential bullish falling wedge forming from Q2 2018. On this time frame we are only 3 points away from entering the accumulation portion of this indicator.
Weekly MACD is looking somewhat neutral. There have been consistent lower lows and lower highs since mid 2017. There is a flag-like channel the MACD has been following, similar to the RSI.
Interestingly, a very peculiar situation in the MACD histogram, however. There is a very strong bullish divergence in this recent drop versus the one that took place in November.
Like the weekly CMF indicator, there is a potential bullish falling wedge forming as well.
By the way. I did an analysis on Gold back in April of last year. Coming up on 1 year from the day I made it, gold is so far doing (almost) exactly what I thought it would. If Gold falls back down for a re-test of $1,350, it could mean that stocks are very near a potential bottom.
Gold is also printing a descending triangle, and is currently facing rather strong resistance in the RSI.
Consider how much fear there is in the market right now.
Consider how hard and how quickly we dumped, 35%!!! IN WEEKS!
The strongest and fastest drop in literal history.
Also keep in mind- Wuhan and mainland china are now peaking in CV19 cases.
And last but not least- just how many shorts and puts do you think there are?
nokia's have a wide reputation for being INDESTRUCIBLE.
This asset is literally screaming bull flags everywhere. wtf America?
Panic
RIG testing crucial multi-year supportFrom February 2011 until November 2016, a major resistance trend line has kept RSI well below 50. In November 2016, there was a minor breakout, which ultimately failed and re-entered bearish territory. Since August of 2017, the RSI has held above this trend line until this month.
After the RSI resistance breakout in late 2017, the trend line has been tested on 3 different occasions for support;
- February 2018
- December 2018
- August/September 2019
We are currently BELOW this trend line, but the monthly still has one full trading week left.
They say the more times a trend line is tested, the weaker it gets. Although I agree whole heartedly with that statement, it truly depends on the area you're attempting to trade. With investor sentiment currently in the toilet due to Coronavirus, there is an extreme amount of fear and a record number of short positions.
This trend line is now very very close to oversold. With price below it, it is in my opinion a very strong buy signal especially if accompanied by a hammer close.
On the most recent successful support re-tests, price wicked below and closed as a hammer, even after strong bearish pressure. Currently, RIG is only 00.08 points away from exactly 30 RSI. SERIOUS bullish RSI divergences are present in the daily, 2D, 2W, monthly, 2M and 3M charts.
There is especially strong bullish divergence in the MACD on all time frames above the weekly.
MACD:
RSI:
Monthly zoomed out
OFF TO THE RACES - Hope you bought this dipHey there,
support this idea with your likes please and make sure to follow me here on TV!
Classical ascending triangle on Bitcoin as the most trustable reversal pattern in my opinion.
I would now expect a consolidation here between 6k and 7k befor moving higher to 8k+.
If we really manage to get to 8k this week, then this will the an amazing reversal engulfing candle on the weekly.
Until then, while it is still possible to reverse and move lower, especially short term, I think the low is in with 95% certainty.
Accumulating down here is the thing to to people. Even if we move sideways for multiiple weeks and months like we did back in 2014/15,
the time to buy is now, when everyone is panic selling and fear is great.
Take a look at the Bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index. ALL TIME LOWS
Cheers,
Konrad
If this is not textbook Wyckoff's theory what is it then ?In the last couple of days, I was overwhelmed with panic theory and I almost believed in emotional selling and a huge drop in the Bitcoin price.
As soon as I saw the Bitcoin price is rising against the flow of all markets I understood something is not right and after visiting my charts again I was wondering how could I not see this.
As you might know crypto market is not as big as other markets and most of the volume you see is faked by exchanges and the smaller the market gets it's easier to manipulate it.
First of all, you can see how they used the panic state to drop prices as sharp as possible and absorbed all the selling in phase one then followed by the accumulation phase and buying climax plus low volume test at the end.
If you are familiar with Wyckoff's theory you can see the phases completely.
1-huge fall in prices using news
2-accumulation phase
3-buying climax
4-breaking accumulation phase
5-low volume test
Please let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Bitcoin is going down again!Just an idea. If the market recovers (which it might on the day after it crashed so badly) then we can expect a recovery of bitcoin for the day as well perhaps. Just an idea I had nothing much here I swear.
$DAL can fall in next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Delta Air Lines attempted to reverse the trend yesterday. The attempt was failed.
Today stock opened lower than yesterday's close price and continue falling.
Despite oil prices falling, the general condition for this stock is shortable due to COVID-19 panic.
Profit from lower oil prices is not enough to cover losses from lower passenger traffic.
I suppose the price will be falling in the next days. So I opened a short position from $42.40;
stop-loss — $44,36 — over today's high;
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
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You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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Let's try to guess ... when it will end. S&PHello friends.
I took the fear index on s&p - vix, we now have almost its maximum purpose, imposed fibonacci ... just for fun, and got the result of 2200. I do not advise buying from this value. Just guessing.
Of all the events, only 2 factors confuse me: the fall rate is too high and the fact that this happens on the eve of the Trump election.
TEARS FOR THOSE WHO DUMPED THEIR GOLD! Loads of traders - mainly gamblers and those on small time frames - were taken out by a panic in the Gold markets which were affected by bond markets and stock market flake out of 3,500 points (DJI).
True traders - not gamblers - had an idea what was going on.
In this screencast I show an opportunity to go long - subject to acceptable controlled losses - and based on probabilities arising from the technical picture at this time.
NOTE carefully that this is not advice or a guarantee. For every probability estimate in one direction, there is a residual probability in the opposite direction (to be managed by a stop-loss).
See also
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Entering the Bears realmBase on my analysis, Prepare for a plunge below 7400. More precisely around 7320.
For now it's locked in a range, but since yesterday, there was a confirmation (MA crossings) telling we're in another mood now (bearish)
If price goes below 7300. It may enter another range that would make the price drop to 6500.
It's time to place a SHORT (sell) margin trade.
don't take my words for granted, make your analysis analyze again, then trade at your own risks.
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Thank you
BUY Opportunity NOW (+3% gain)Base on my analysis, the "Niagara fall" movement of Bitcoin of the last hour is a panic sell that won't sustain. I've seen a trigger on my indicator that tells it's the bottom of the fall and a sudden rise is already in place.
I've placed a SELL trade 2 hours ago, so I'm now at +9.91% benefits. (Price is at 8679 USD when I wrote).
I'll stop immediately this trade to take the counter trade ==> BUYING.
I don't say the fall is fully over, but a Bullish small cycle has begun right now. At least +3% increase
Don't take my words for granted. Do your analysis and trade at your own risks.
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Small yoyo but UPDon't think the up move is over. Not on my daily graph at least.
A down correction is preparing. It won't last since bulls
have not finished their up cycle (It's seen only on a daily chart).
Note the level at 1.06303 it's a key level. It'll surely become
a weak resistance level (easily breachable).
Price will possibly climb fast to 1.06303 after the down correction.
watch also level at FIBO(1.272) it's a nice level for Bullish trades since
it synchs with a big old candle weeks ago.
FIBO1.272 is linked to price at 1.07302. To view that level shrink the
graph a bit vertically.
price a 1.07302 will be a real resistance line (=FIBO 1.272)
Don't take my words for granted, do your analysis and trade at you own risks.
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Forming downtrend to 9650IT seems we have the beginning of a downtrend, which is confirmed on my Daily chart
but it should be a fake downtrend.
it won't be a Bear rally, but a correction to "rebound up" , because bulls are still in control on the long run.
So price should comeback to a bullish mode after that correction, and price should still keep on moving over 11K (let's hope)