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Panicsell

BTC- Fundamental, market cycle and capitulationThe great unwind... As Mark Cuban calls it. Such capitulations are, however, not uncommon throughout Bitcoin's history. Feb 2018, Nov 2018 and Mar 2020... To name a few. Of course, to newcomers, such volatility is difficult to stomach. At least, that was how I felt back in 2017. The latest China FUD is simply three banking and payments associations in China reiterated on the central bank's 2017 ban on financial institutions and payment firms engaging in cryptocurrency transactions and these rules have been in place since 2017. China has been banning the retail trading and the operation of crypto exchange within China’s jurisdiction since 2017. I know this because I was at the front row seat and watched this event unfolded which also coincided with the deep correction of Ethereum from $400 to $140. China’s latest crackdown on Bitcoin mining will be limited to operations that are not using hydroelectric power. If you think about it, it’s actually good for BTC’s reputation and the global environment in the long run as the world’s adoption of the decarbonation accelerates. Elon musk’s bashing of BTC…. Hard to take him seriously when he doesn’t even know the high ownership concentration of DOGE and when he believes that he can magically 10x the block size of DOGE. Obviously, he hasn’t thought seriously about the scalability dilemma and the tradeoff between privacy & decentralization and transaction volume/speed/cost. He is right about the BTC’s environmental impact though and it is an important issue for Bitconers to address as the worldwide trend toward the greener environment marches on. I just wish that he didn’t flipflop on whether or not he would allow Tesla to accept BTC payment. FOMOers, long-term holders/whales and miners determine crypto’s market cycle. Let’s examine them one by one. Short-term holder's capitulation- Panic selling is actually good as weak hands get shaken out and market cools off a bit. Both aSOPR and STH-SOPR have dipped below 1.0 recently indicating the widespread and aggressive panic selling by new holders. # of address with a non-zero balance has also decreased which is another sign of panic selling by FOMOers. Bitcoin’s Net Transfer volume from/to Binance is another panic selling indicator as it went up when panic selling intensified. Long-term holder is HODLing- The ASOL, CDD and Dormancy metrics are all down indicating HODL sentiment among long-term holders. # of Bitcoin supply held by Long Term Holders indicating that LTHs haven’t distributed their holdings to the lvl where the new accumulation phase typically begins. Coinbase’s outflow continues to increase and its balance continue to decline which indicating institutional accumulation and demand and the increasing # of accumulation addresses also point to the same trend. Total supply held by long-term holders has also slightly increased though this data by itself doesn’t tell us if LTH is accumulating at the bottom of the bullish retracement or the beginning of bearish cycle. Miners' accumulation- Last but not the least, miners’ behavior has great influence on the market sentiment. Both Bitcoin’s Miner Net Position Change and OTC Desks Balance indicate that miners are bullish and are accumulating BTC instead of distributing it. Most other on-chain datas and technical indicators such as BTC NVT price, Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon and Mayer multiple paint a bullish picture as well . However, one thing that concerns me is that Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC seems to be declining a bit. It’s possible that the price can continue to fall and bottom around 25k, but the likelihood of it happens will depend on if BTC can convincingly break above 38k and how long BTC stays below 40k. Whatever you do, base your judgement on the combination of different source and analysis rather than the biased intuition and simple trading patterns. Most importantly, play the long game. It's paramount that you can survive the bearish cycle, which will come eventually, and have enough capital set aside so you can buy at the bottom formation and enjoy the fruit of your labors when the market rises up again.
by Libratus
2
Where I think the Ethereum is going in the short-term?Hello guys, I am coming with TA for the current ETH state and where I think we are heading in the short term. It is written in the chart, but for readability, I will put it here in the right order to read it. Just an opinion, no hard number - everything is visible in the chart. 1 ---> Upper left corner Basically, there are three types of scenarios: 1) BTC goes down and takes the whole market with it, where the altcoins are as we are used to bleeding the most (except XXX - I know there are exceptions) 2) BTC goes sideways and the ETH corrects, but the ETH/BTC valuation will go down more hard.. or the same as in the first one?? 3) BTC goes up and ETH also, which would insist that we break the channel and go for another price discovery mode, which I think is unlikely at the current state. I am personally biased with scenarios 1-2 where I put more value to the first one. 2 ---> Down right corner Another point to mention is that we should also consider ETH / BTC ratio, where ETH is currently out-performing BTC since the start of a bull run by 2.82x. If we assume a situation, where bitcoin is one cycle ahead before ETH, we should consider the lower volatility. Considering that BTC is "possibly" at the current peak of a bull move. I am not insisting this is an end of a bull-run definitely not, but I think we are heading into a moment of a few months accumulation phase. I am also not insisting it is going to happen tomorrow. My personal opinion is few more weeks, but let's see how the new weekly candle opens on Monday. 3 ---> Purple box Another unlike scenario (IMO), would be that we break the channel upwards for a new price discovery in the following "weeks", however, this does not correspond with healthy corrections as we know them. This move is way straight up. 4 ---> Green box We could assume that the price could be hanging at the upper channel line, in that case, it is a bit different since the price went "straight" up. Before the start of the channel, the movement was more continuous and "healthy". So more likely we will go down a bit. To summarize this up: In the case the ETH or Market turns red we could potentially see a 30-40% wash off, but I think it is a good entry for a short with a stop loss at 4500, maybe put a bit more tight, depending on your style :) The risk/reward is in our favor in this case. I could have also included the market cap and the Bitcoin dominance, but I do not find it that necessary in the matter of short-term moves. I would be very glad If some of you guys, would give me any relative feedback and if that is something that makes sense to you. Thanks!
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by Elyar
BTC Dump Breakdown!!BINANCE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT Hi , so as you all know that we are having a significant dump because of different fundamental and technical reasons such as overextending price in a short period of time and bearish news and ...!! So currently we can't claim that the pullback is over or we will continue dumping , the best thing that we can do is to wait for the market to play it's moves and when we get bullish signals we can get back in and open long positions. Currently we are in a high traffic area and we have support both from market structures and the 100 D EMA , so if we hold this level we can monitor the price action on lower time frames to look for bullish signals to confidently claim that the pullback is over. But of we can't hold this level too we will head towards our next support level witch is at 43k to 45k levels . At this level we have 21 W EMA and market structure support . The 21 W EMA is a strong support for BTC market overall and in different bull markets we retest this support many times and it's a normal behavior , so if we get support from this area and shift from lower time frame bearish market to lower time frame bullish market we we will wait till we get one of our valid entry signals and safely open our trades and enjoy the rest of the Bullmarket . But if we break this level too we can officially say that the bull run is over. So anyway trade cautiously and if you did found my idea helpful consider leaving a like and sharing your opinions with me by leaving a comment . Thanks ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by arshia3h
BTC price reversal using Trend based Fib Time toolThe trend based fib time tool is used to predict pattern reversals by using horizontal fib levels. This method has proven effective and predicts many reversal patterns. By plotting the Key points on the daily BTC time frame. I as able to find that we are very close to a trend reversal, which means that bullish momentum is imminent and waiting impatiently to takeover. Please note that the numbers and charts are not 100% accurate and contain some offset. This idea is only published for educational purposes. HODL & BTD! Thierry Hitti
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TraderThierry
$TAL can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea. TAL Education Group provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the People's Republic of China. The demand for shares of the company looks lower than the supply. This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price in the next days. So I opened a short position from $66,93; stop-loss — $78,07. Information about take-profits will be later. Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas. Thanks for being with me!
NYSE:TALShort
by KozakHlib