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Parabola

My response to a friend asked if she should start using BitcoinTLDR: I think Bitcoin is good for humanity, and it’s worth researching it to see if its right for you. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, this is my opinion. I started out thinking this would be a quick, one or two short paragraph post but then I ended up writing nearly 2000 words. There’s no easy way to give a quick explanation of Bitcoin, and money is an important subject to weigh in on so my communication needs to be clear. I’m giving my opinion about an entirely different monetary system than we’ve had our entire lives. I wanted to spread some information that I’ve found through a couple years of research and trading. Above all I just want to live in a better world and I think there’s always room for improvement in all of our systems. I’m willing to experiment to find out how to do that. The text is footnoted to help you understand some of the jargon and facts. I dedicate this to my brother who got me started with this. It’s his birthday today. Happy birthday Ty. -- By now I imagine most of you know what Bitcoin is or have at least heard of it, but still most of you haven’t thought to buy any and use it. I think it could make our world a much better place if we all adopted it as a means of paying each other. I’ve bought a few things online with Bitcoin. It can be spent in person too. I prefer to spend it instead of debit/credit if the vendor I’m purchasing from accepts it, but many still don’t. I feel safer using it, it is more secure than Fiat currencies1. I think if you’re a vendor, you should consider accepting it, because it gives you access to more customers (the Bitcoin spenders). I can understand peoples hesitation to buy it and use it, or get involved in other parts of the Bitcoin ecosystem. The price paired to Fiat currency is extremely volatile. It has a reputation for being used to purchase illegal goods and services, and it’s an obscure thing. Money in general is obscure because it has no intrinsic value (you can’t eat it, drink it, smoke it, wear it etc). Worth noting, exceedingly more Fiat currency is spent on illegal goods and services than Bitcoin is.2 I’ve heard many other criticisms’ as well. The fact you could buy some today, and it could be worth two thirds as much in a just a week; the cause being that many average people (or a few very rich people) decided to sell it.3 However, since Bitcoin’s inception, it has proven over and over again that if you hold on to it, it will increase in value over a long period of time. By doing this, it incentivizes saving. People don’t want to spend as much because it’s consistently increasing in value, so they save it instead. It increases in value when new Fiat currency flows into it from the public, and less Bitcoin flows out, which has been normal through its history. When more people are seeing that it’s value is going up, it incentivizes them to buy in. In theory, the ‘saving incentive’ means that people would buy less goods and services and conserve earth’s natural resources better. It is still in a very early stage in terms of becoming a meaningful currency that average people use, so these observations are speculative. It may sound like a Ponzi Scheme to some, but then what is Fiat currency if you look from a broad perspective? The main reasons it outperforms Fiat currencies is because it’s decentralized, and censorship resistant. No one entity controls it. It is not the property of the bank of any country. Each users holds their own unique keys to their money. It can’t be manipulated by any government, bank, or corporation. The creator of the software is anonymous.4 It can do cross border payments in a manner of seconds, and for a tiny fraction the cost of fiat, and make what were once inaccessible payments, accessible. There is no borders with Bitcoin. Governments tend to print money on a fairly regular basis which can artificially inflate prices of goods and services. Some very corrupt governments have printed so much money that it hyper-inflates their currency and becomes nearly worthless.5 Bitcoin has a fixed supply which will be about 21 million coins once it has all been mined6, so it’s not possible for it to be inflated. It’s built into the software to continue slowing production of new coins until it ultimately stops producing them. There is still a risk of the price of Bitcoin going to zero, everyone could decide to sell it and it would become worthless. However that risk theoretically exists with many currencies and part of my interest is what’s happening in the future for our children and grandchildren. Every Canadian could trade all their dollars for, say, US dollars, making Canadian dollars worthless. However unlikely, it’s a theoretical scenario. Everything starts somewhere. Bitcoin is brand new, it has only been in use for 11 years, but it’s possible it could be in use for the next 100 years and beyond. It depends on humanity’s decisions. This is a chart of the price of bitcoin over it's lifetime, relative to US Dollars. It has followed this parabolic curve it’s entire existence, and never fallen below it. One Bitcoin was worth a fraction of a penny when the software was first developed, to now over US $8000. It is, undoubtedly the best financial investment of all time for early adopters.7 If it continues to follow the parabolic curve, it will be worth US $1,000,000 around the year 2030. However, that’s a big if - no one knows precisely why it follows the parabolic curve, and if it will continue along it. There are only theories. One of them, the Stock to Flow model,8 is very plausible. It doesn’t explain the parabola per se, but gives evidence of what drives the price. What I would recommend if you’re interested, is to first do as much research as possible, then if you still feel it’s a good idea, try buying a small amount and see how it goes. You would be helping grow the ecosystem. You can buy as a little amount as you want. It is infinitely divisible. Remember, this is not financial advice. You must be willing to lose what you put in. There are also security measures that you should be aware of before purchasing. I can help you with this if you ask me. Also, as I side note I’m trying to encourage that people never sell for Fiat, and instead hold or spend it. This is what is best for the ecosystem. However I understand the desire to exchange back to Fiat to make profits that you can spend at the grocery store, or wherever. I do this myself. Technically, a trader is anyone who buys or sells. For those wondering what professional traders actually do, they provide liquidity9 for the market, so others can buy and sell easily. There is no get rich quick scheme. It takes just as much work, or more than the average job to make a living at it. In time you can get more efficient, and some people are able to master it and get rich from it, not unlike many other types of business. I am far from a master, but would be happy to teach what I know. This only scratches the surface, there are still many questions to be answered such as: how does our society work with this, how are governments responding, how can you loan and borrow Bitcoin, how are taxes paid, where can you spend it right now, what’s the best time to buy, where do you buy and sell it, how do you store it, how does mining work, what about all the other crypto-currencies, what is the blockchain, what is cryptography, what do you do about slow transaction speeds, and many more. I’ll do my best to answer if you ask me, but some of the answers are just my opinion based on the different sources I’ve read throughout the past few years. I don’t know if I’m right or wrong about the future of Bitcoin but my estimate is that it will be around for a long time to come. I’m doing the best I can to piece the puzzle together. Some of the facts I stated could have different interpretations. I did my best to fact check before posting because I think telling the most precise truth is most important, especially for something that could change everything we know about money. I might have got some facts wrong. If you see something please let me know. Thanks for reading. Leave a comment, ask me questions. Ask your friends questions and please share this freely. Cheers For similar content, find me on twitter @ aSongForThis Footnotes: 1 Fiat Currencies are what most people use around the world right now, including USD, CAD, EUR, JPY etc. 2 Cryptocurrency research firm Chainalysis noted that dark web transactions now account for just one percent of Bitcoin transactions, down from 30 percent in 2012. 3 When the software was first introduced to the public, there wasn’t nearly as many people involved, so a small minority of people who hold Bitcoin, hold large stacks of coins from the very early stages of development. These coins are being distributed to the public as time goes on, so intra-day trading can be very volatile in part due to these people selling and buying large amounts whenever they want, and often at strategic times, and likely working together at times. They’re often referred to as Whales, along with whoever else has large stacks of coins. 4 There are several people who claim to be the creator of Bitcoin software, but there has never been verified proof. When the software was released, a paper explaining the purpose of it was released with it, called the “white paper,” and was authored by an anonymous person who went by Satoshi Nakamodo. Weather the name’s real or fake we don’t know, and we may never, and it may be more than one person. The paper can be seen at bitcoin dot org 5 Examples include Venezuela, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Zimbabwe. 6 Miners run the Bitcoin software, it is free and open-source. Miners solve complex math equations to verify transactions, and get rewarded for it. The costs of mining are hardware and electricity. Anyone can mine Bitcoin. Miners get rewarded with freshly minted coins and transaction fees. After all 21 million coins built into the software are minted, there will be no more. Miners are still necessary to settle transactions, and will earn their Bitcoin solely from transaction fees. This wont happen until the year 2140. 7 If you invested US one hundred dollars in mid 2010, and sold in late 2017, you would have made between US 30 to 40 million dollars, depending on the exact timing. 8 A model created by an anonymous Bitcoin user that has garnished much attention. I can’t post a link so search “Stock to Flow Model medium” 9 Liquidity is a term used to describe the availability of an asset. Bitcoin has enough liquidity for most common investors. Twitter @aSongForThis
BNC:BLXEducation
by aSongForThis
LINK/BTC Triple Top | Parabola Continuation? Hello Traders, Hope all is well!, Today’s chart update will be on LINK with an impressive parabola, will bulls have enough momentum to retest staunched resistance, which has recently put in a triple top? Points to consider, - Trend bullish - Strong resistance - RSI neutral - Stochastics projected up - EMA’s giving resistance - Low volume Link is in a bull trend which has put in consecutive higher lows and is now testing its local support area. Price has put in a triple top, a bearish indication from a staunched level that needs to break for a bullish bias. The RSI is currently neutral; it needs to break its resistance for a confirmation in a parabola continuation. Stochastics are currently projected up, as of now, trading in lower regions where it can stay for an extended period of time; however we do have lots of momentum to the upside. The EMA’s are currently giving price resistance, needs to turn bullish at current support level, otherwise a break will be imminent. Volume is extremely below average at current given time, an influx of volume is required, bullish and or bearish, to confirm immediate direction of trend. Overall, in my opinion, if local support is not held, the parabola will be negated. It would then be more probable to test lower support levels whilst still being in an overall bull trend. What are your thoughts on LINK, will it respect local support? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Once you find the system that works for your style/personality and confidence is gained, wash, rinse, repeat over and over again.” – Sunrisetrader
by AzizKhanZamani
Watch out for Ancient Mama BearHello Again fellow Traders! Once again, it's time for some simple Analysis as there has been some recent Developments in the PA which might help Confirm Macro Bias As you may or may not have seen from my Previously posted simple Analysis in which I go to show the breaking of the Macro Parabolic Advance followed by the Retest and the Failure it is now mirroring into lower Time frames as well and we are believe it or not now creating Inverted Parabolic support. As i'm still learning about how exactly Parabolic curves function in each and every Scenario I'm not able to clearly forecast the outcome of this BUT It is Clearly visible in this Exact chart that the Past PA which Painted this Type of I-Parabola Support Broke down once we reached the Top of the Curve. This leads me to the suspicion to believe that the currently forming "ascending triangle" is not actually Bullish but much rather a Bulltrap. If I am correct, I expect the current Price to continue moving inside of the tightening range, then wick to the Top of the larger Curve on a Fakeout and get massively rejected breaking the smaller curve we currently hold as support. I have taken Profit on my Last short & Entered a scalp long from the recent Drop @10175 XBTUSD My TP is 10300 & SL 10169 Once we reach 10300 I will enter shorts once again with SL@ 10401 & TP@ 9880 Good Luck to you all :) Still hoping we break Bullish deep Inside.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by fab-e
I am as Bullish as can be but....I have taken the time to create this super simple chart which only shows one thing : Parabolic Advance - Parabolic advance Breaking - Retest - Rejection From my own Experience this has been one of my leading Signals for short entries. Since this is happening on HTF in this case 8 Hour candles and the Support cluster is so Dense right below current Price of around 10.3K it is taking a VERY long time to decisively break it. There are several confluences especially EMA's right below Price visible very well when using the EMA Ribbon Template and flipping through different Time frames. ALL of them below the Price from 4h-monthly BUT the parabola is broken. If there is no significant break of Resistance Price is going to Dump very Hard is all i can say. I have no Realistic Targets as this potential mega Dump will initiate a cascade of Bearish confirmations and will cause Bearish market structure to Paint itself inside of the Chart soon after. Support in the 9.3-9-6s will surely hold at first, but I feel this will be temporary unless a Massive Pump taking out the Sloping resistance follows from the potential & likely Bounce. This chart is posted on my Timeline as future Reference and Timestamp in predicting critical Reversal points based on Simple Parabolic curves. I hope I am proven Wrong and we Fly. But either way. I am hedging short a large Position on High leverage on Bitmex. SL@ 10570 XBTUSD Chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by fab-e
7
BTC Longer Term Projection | Parabolic Rise!Hello Traders! New Week Monday Today’s chart will be a bit different, we will have a look at the longer term projection of BTC, remember this is pure speculation, no certainty… Points to consider, - Parabolic rise that retraced and held support - RSI held above 60 in the bull market - Stochastics traded above 70 in the bull market - EMA’s held price as support - Bull volume noticeably increased There are striking similarities between the previous bull market and the one that we are inevitable heading into right now. Price had a blow off top and established a support base (green zone) before the EMA’s came into play. The EMA’s supported price as it traded back towards the ATH, here volume picked up drastically, Bitcoin went on and completed its next parabolic rise… Bitcoin right now has come out of its support base (green zone) and the EMA’s, similarly, is supporting price as BTC makes its way back to its ATH ($20,000). We need to see the RSI enter back into the orange box, where it traded last bull market, same goes with the Stochastics. Volume also needs to pick up as we approach and retest the ATH again. It will be interesting to see how long it takes BTC to break its ATH; previously it took 455 days from support base. Using this Metrix, we can assume that the ATH will be broken some time mid-2020. Again this is pure speculation; anything is possible as there is no certainty in the markets, especially Bitcoin! What are your thoughts on the longer term aspect of Bitcoin? Please leave a like and comment And remember, “Sheer will and determination is no substitute for something that actually works.” – Jason Klatt
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AzizKhanZamani
1
BTC - THE BULLISH SCENARIO NOT TO BE IGNORED!!!!Hey Everyone, I am going to give you a potential BULLISH scenario not to be ignored... just yet... My SUPER DUPER STRONG SUPPORT IS STILL INTACT RANGE $9,250-9,170 Now every time we have a small correction the crypto social media world turns doom and gloom double bottom $3,200, and I do not see this happening unless something totally disastrous happens. It is my opinion that we are yet to complete 5 waves up - My case for this being a wave 4 retrace is here. A typical 4th wave retrace of a 3rd wave is 0.5 FIB which is where we are holding right now. It is ALSO BASE 3 of the parabola. If the parabola is measured from the previous correction we ascertain the axis of symmetry to give us the basis of the angle of the parabola and subsequent price action. You cannot just draw a line on the chart and call it a PARABOLA, the symmetry is measured from the previous decline. en.wikipedia.org The angle of the parabolic rise must be applied by reflecting on the characteristics and movement of the decline. The distances are calculated to give the angle. The axis of symmetry will be reflected by the line BE (our current unbroken trend-line) Since BE is the tangent to the parabola at E, the same rise at this point will occur, hence a doubling effect (Taking us to potentially 28K) from the point of the arc of the parabola at E. (Base 3) This math applies to all points on the parabola, as is shown on the left side of the diagram. This is the reflective property from the previous corrective structure, which the angles rising will mimic. To get our angle we need to go back to algebra (that thing you never thought you would need in high school math) f(x)=ax²+bx+c this applied o our angles gives us our rise. In trading it can be done with numerous tools - Gann Square, Fib Circles, Fib Wedge or Pitch Fan. Short term, we are going to see some sideways movement on BITCOIN with little to no direction, we have a trading range short term of $9,000 to $11,000. We have a high liquidity area in which we are going to see the whales at play, long wicks to either direction taking out STOP losses and creating liquidity for the whales and Market Makers to push BTC higher. This is short term pain for the smaller traders, and if you can hold on and not over margin or sit in spot, I believe you will see the long term gains. This will also cause mass confusion to the direction, which for a whale or market maker is the aim of the game and the easiest way to take you money when you over trade positions. Over trading is serious issue in regions like we are now and will be where many smaller traders will lose the majority of their capital. If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
BITMEX:XBT
by LisaNEdwards
72