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Parabolas

Bitcoin: From 64,840 feet (updated)Continuing my (unreasonable?) interest in radial lines as a type of TA, here's an additional curious take on the familiar 12-year Bitcoin price chart. Explanation: The yellow radial lines go from a low to the previous high. The convergence area is circled in yellow. The orange radial lines go from a high to the previous low. The convergence area is circled in orange. Notes: The price action on this BLX Index records the daily *close* price. It does not record the daily highs or lows -- which is unfortunate since minor price differences can make a significant difference on these *long* radial lines. It is striking that the orange radial lines converge on the area of Bitcoins origins (original date and price). Significance? I don't put much faith in the last yellow radial line because of the very late 2023 date, but it does represent an interesting "idea". Based on the price action over the past four months, I believe Bitcoin will bounce off the lower parabola *much* sooner than 2023. By the way: I'm somewhat critical of those who "fit" a couple of curved lines to Bitcoin's 12-year logarithmic price chart and call it gospel. Parabolas are a *specific* type of mathematical curve. Parabolas are "natural" functions that appear in nature and in many systems and processes -- even (surprisingly) in many that appear to be random and chaotic. The fact that one can fit mathematically-precise parabolas to the highs and lows of Bitcoin's 12-year price history is, in itself, surprising -- and adds some weight to the significance of such charts. Sincerely, Bullbearish (I’m a Bull. But Bear happens.) PS: Nothing I post should be construed as trading or financial advice.
BNC:BLXShort
by Bullbearish
1
Bitcoin: From 64,840 feetContinuing my (unreasonable?) interest in radial lines as a type of TA, here's a curious take on the familiar 12-year Bitcoin price chart. I don't put much faith in the last radial line (because of the late 2023 date), but it does represent an interesting "idea". By the way: I'm somewhat critical of those who "fit" a couple of curved lines to Bitcoin's 12-year logarithmic price chart and call it gospel. Parabolas are a *specific* type of mathematical curve. Parabolas are "natural" functions that appear in nature and in many systems and processes -- even (surprisingly) in many that appear to be random and chaotic. The fact that one can fit mathematically-precise parabolas to the highs and lows of Bitcoin's 12-year price history is, in itself, surprising -- and adds some weight to the significance of such charts. Sincerely, Bullbearish (I’m a Bull. But Bear happens.) PS: Nothing I post should be construed as trading or financial advice.
BNC:BLXShort
by Bullbearish
5
Is this it? Over the edge?Well, in a heavily manipulated market, one never knows. But I don’t think we’re there yet. This is update #9 to my original May 5 post. See my previous post for the big picture. This is a tight 1-hour zoom in. At the risk of being stoned to death (I’m an observer, not a prophet), I offer this plausible scenario: I expect Bitcoin to bounce around the (downward sloping) upper parabola (shown in blue) for another day or two. Taking dips — but showing *remarkable* bullish resolve to regain the $40k-$41k plateau and possibly muscle a power spike to $42k. (A Bull Trap within a Bull Trap.) One of theses dips (perhaps the current one) should be to the obvious Fib retrace $37,700 - $37,800. But from a later dip, Bitcoin will not recover. Indicators: 1. Death Cross: Manipulators are always looking for intrinsic, “natural” indicators to conceal their manipulations. The much publicized Death Star, while having a ho-hum history with Bitcoin, will this time, I predict, be anything but ho-hum. Its June 20-24 timing is just too good for the Bear-manipulators to pass up. 2. Lower volume: Binance, with over 30% of Bitcoin’s volume, is by far the largest Bitcoin market. I have over a dozen alerts on this volume: 40G, 39G, 38G, 37G, ... These have proven quite predictive during previous “quiet before the storm” periods. Note however: As the fall begins to seriously accelerate, this volume will quickly go up. 3. Watch for a slow, accelerating arc downward, heading towards a recent previous low. As the price bounces, all are thinking, “Oh, OK, it’s made a double bottom here. A true Bull sign!” But shortly thereafter .... the Bear takes a dump! As they say, Bear happens! _______________________________ Warning! Conspiracy theory ahead: Allow me to close with a theory I first posted last month: Regardless of what you believe about the Bible, it does prophesy the end times characterized by: - a one world government, and - a cashless society. It’s hard to imagine a global (borderless) government that uses something other than cryptocurrency for their global currency. This line of reasoning suggests that blockchain cryptocurrencies will be the technical foundation of the Bible-prophesied cashless society and that, beyond simple greed, the current manipulation of Bitcoin could be motivated by globalist ideologies, goals and plans. We’re talking *big* players here. Very wealthy and determined globalist players. Be careful out there. The world is is not getting better and better. Sincerely, Bullbearish (I’m a Bull. But Bear happens.) PS: Nothing I post should be construed as trading or financial advice.
Short
by Bullbearish
10
Double Bottom --> Bull Trap --> Crash (In days!) --> Death CrossBitcoin has arrived at the upper parabola. If I'm correct, the predicted and (dare I say) manipulated Bull Trap is here. This is update #8 to my original May 5 post. Note, however, that the Bull Trap was first called on the June 6 update. I'm not bragging, I'm warning: If the near-vertical radial line "e" is saying what I think it's saying, we're at the edge of a very high and steep cliff. Changes made since my last post: 1. I added 200- and 50-day moving averages (in orange) and circled the likely Death Cross location. And I note: The $40k right corner of my chart is getting crowded with ominous indicators. 2. I added a less extreme, more likely (?) path to the lower BLX parabola line at the bottom. Yes, that bottom line looks straight, but that’s because we’re looking at a very small segment of a 12-year-long parabola. Below is my previous post verbatim - except for an updated zoom-in picture. ____________________________________________________ "Looney TA from a Looney Bear!" Well, these parabolas and radial lines are certainly unconventional and unorthodox TA — but they continue to amaze me with unexpected alignments and intersections. And my predicted double bottom at $30K happened at $31K instead. But hey, that shows we're in a strong Bull market, right? This is update #7 to my original May 5 post. Notable tweaks: 1. I moved my Bull-Trap target range down $1,000 to $40K-$41K. 2. I added a label showing the May 19 crash was 53.7% from the ATH . 3. I added a label showing where the largest short-term crash in history (82.6%) would take us. Here's a 1-hr zoom into the critical part of my chart. Note 1: If the near-vertical radial line "e" is saying what I think it's saying, we're near the edge of a very high and steep cliff. Be careful. Be more than careful! Note 2: I'm still calling for a bottom around June 28, ±10 days. BUT: I still believe this is a market heavily manipulated by well-funded Bears and their API-connected PCs . They will try to make their manipulation look natural, but ... ___________________________ Background: Parabolas are a specific type of mathematical curve. Parabolas are a "natural" function that appear in many systems and processes -- even (surprisingly) in many that appear to be random and chaotic. ___________________________ Bitcoin’s May 19 fall to $30k was a 53% correction. With this in mind, I again offer the community my (not fully vetted) Law of Maximal Retrace: Bullbearish’s Law of Maximal Retrace: If Bitcoin experiences a correction (a retrace) of 50% or more, it *must* touch the lower 12-year BLX parabola before reaching the next higher high. The Mt Gox fiasco of 2011 (an extrinsic/abnormal event) caused the only known exception to this law. If you know of any other exception(s), please message me. My BLX post on this: Sincerely, Bullbearish (I'm a Bull. But Bear happens!) PS: Nothing I post should be construed as trading or financial advice.
Short
by Bullbearish
15
Double Bottom -> Bull Trap -> Crash (In days!)"Looney TA from a Looney Bear!" Well, these parabolas and radial lines are certainly unconventional and unorthodox TA — but they continue to amaze me with unexpected alignments and intersections. And my predicted double bottom at $30K happened at $31K instead. But hey, that shows we're in a strong Bull market, right? This is update #7 to my original May 5 post. Notable tweaks: 1. I moved my Bull-Trap target range down $1,000 to $40K-$41K. 2. I added a label showing the May 19 crash was 53.7% from the ATH. 3. I added a label showing where the largest short-term crash in history (82.6%) would take us. Here's a 1-hr zoom into the critical part of my chart. Note 1: If the near-vertical radial line "e" is saying what I think it's saying, we're near the edge of a very high and steep cliff. Be careful. Be more than careful! Note 2: I'm still calling for a bottom around June 28, ±10 days. BUT: I still believe this is a market heavily manipulated by well-funded Bears and their API-connected PCs. They will try to make their manipulation look natural, but ... ___________________________ Background: Parabolas are a specific type of mathematical curve. Parabolas are a "natural" function that appear in many systems and processes -- even (surprisingly) in many that appear to be random and chaotic. ___________________________ Bitcoin’s May 19 fall to $30k was a 53% correction. With this in mind, I again offer the community my (not fully vetted) Law of Maximal Retrace: Bullbearish’s Law of Maximal Retrace: If Bitcoin experiences a correction (a retrace) of 50% or more, it *must* touch the lower 12-year BLX parabola before reaching the next higher high. The Mt Gox fiasco of 2011 (an extrinsic/abnormal event) caused the only known exception to this law. If you know of any other exception(s), please message me. My BLX post on this: Sincerely, Bullbearish (I'm a Bull. But Bear happens!) PS: Nothing I post should be construed as trading or financial advice.
Short
by Bullbearish
10
BTC: Double Bottom --> Bull Trap --> CrashParabolas and radial lines: Unconventional and unorthodox TA — but they continue to amaze me with unexpected alignments and intersections. This is update #6 to my original May 5 post — showing one addition radial line (“e”) and the below plausible(?) Bitcoin scenario: 1. Double bottom at $30K. (A manipulated Bull signal?) 2. Strong bounce to the “hopium” $41K-$42K breakout area. (Bull trap!) 3. Rapid (manipulated?) crash to lower than low. (Giving the large institutional buyers the bargain they want.) June 28 ± 10 days. If Bitcoin does bounce off the lower BLX parabola (see my proposed law below), this would be a low around $8200 ± $500. Unimaginable -- but in the spirit of letting Technical Analysis speak its own mind, I report it none-the-less. ___________________________ Bitcoin’s May 19 fall to $30k was a 53% correction. With this in mind, I offer the community my (not fully vetted) Law of Maximal Retrace: Bullbearish’s Law of Maximal Retrace: If Bitcoin experiences a correction (a retrace) of 50% or more, it *must* touch the lower BLX parabola before reaching the next higher high. The Mt Gox fiasco of 2013 (an extrinsic/abnormal event) caused the only known violation to this law. If you discover any other exception, please message me. PS: This proposed “law” of mine is likely to be *majorly* tested in the very near future. PPS: For more info on the 12-year BLX parabolas, see my earlier post today. Search for "BLX".
Short
by Bullbearish
3
BTC manipulation? Surely not!Warning! Conspiracy theories ahead: 1. Why does the January-to-May BTC chart (with its mid-April ATH) form a near perfect curve? 2. Why do *all* other BTC ATH charts form sharp mountaintop peaks? 3. Why am I (and most all other 12-year-BLX curve fitters) *unable* find a natural/logical curve that passes thru April’s ATH? Conspiracy Theory #1: Might the unique, slow-curve, Jan-May turnaround and crash be the result of manipulation? Persistent computer-driven trading (programmed by clever bears) taking advantage of every weakness (24/7) found in the order books of 2-3 major exchanges? Might large institutional buyers who announced they’re getting into Cryptos be waiting for a better price (a much better price) before actually buying? Might these institutional buyers be paying for the manipulation? Conspiracy Theory #2: Regardless of what you believe about the Bible, it does prophesy the end times characterized by: - a one world government, and - a cashless society. It’s hard to imagine that a global (borderless) government would use something other than cryptocurrency for their global currency. This line of reasoning suggests that blockchain cryptocurrencies will be the technical foundation of the Bible-prophesied cashless society and that, beyond simple greed, the current manipulation of Bitcoin could be motivated by globalist ideology and goals. ________________________________________ Bitcoin’s May 19 fall to $30k was a 53% correction. With this in mind, I offer the community my (not fully vetted) Law of Maximal Retrace: Bullbearish’s Law of Maximal Retrace: If Bitcoin experiences a correction (a retrace) of 50% or more, it *must* touch the lower BLX parabola before reaching the next higher high. The Mt Gox fiasco of 2013 (an extrinsic/abnormal event) caused the only known exception to this law. If you discover any other exception, please message me. PS: This proposed “law” of mine is likely to be *majorly* tested in the very near future.
BNC:BLXShort
by Bullbearish
12
Bitcoin! 3 intersecting Parabolic Rises until $50k EOY?Hello everyone, I've got my contrarian hat on today, inspired by my previous idea on Litecoin. While everyone is expecting further retracement or re-accumulation phase for the coming months on Bitcoin, could this surprise all and continue it's parabolic rises? We present the 3 parabolas (yellow, purple then blue) that we see playing out, IF our contrarian view holds. You will notice how $BTC has been loving its 80-81% parabolic rises in each "step". Are we THAT bullish going into EOY? $50k if so! Please **do not trade based on this ** - this is a suggestion/idea based on a contrarian view that Bitcoin continues to be very bullish in Q3 and Q4 this year! Cheers, Leb Crypto
BITTREX:BTCUSDLong
by Leb_Crypto
I Hate to Say this But the Price Action is Bad Bad NewsOriginally I thought this was a little too fast but felt it was a short squeeze and we'd top in the $8-$10k range then have a nice correction. Unfortunately things go out of hand. Parabolas happen all the time, in many different price /time ranges and many different assets. I've studied them for years and I got shit when I said the $20k parabola was a bad sign. I got shit when I told you the $11k run up in early 2018 was a bull trap. I now expect new lows are possible. I wasn't thinking that at all last month. That doesn't mean I guarantee it. Coming weeks and months will help guide us. I would have to see us hold here maybe consolidate it for a month then make a slower move to $20k. Otherwise a move down to $7k and a reasonably long and flat consolidation area that shows signs of re-accumulation. If we have a parabolic crash, then be careful. $7k is the 61.8 fib and also a small low volatility area that would be ripe to pluck some stops, so hold that for a long period and accumulating there would change my mind. Going below that triggers your first warning. This market really as no business ever going under $6k if its going to start a new bull. I take partial stops there on my last holdings. The rest at $4800. Under that and I'd put $1200 as a 85% chance. Here is my concern. Markets with real buyers go up and down, chop, as buyers accumulate, then take small profits and patient buyers buy it up. Usually parabolas are much longer and start as very slow moves. When you get a burst like this its more akin to crack up boom. In other words, its just buying because price is going up. It ends when you run out of buyers. The volatility tells me that there is no real investing behind this move. Its low liquidity nonsense fueled by overleveraged noobs. This happens all the time in OTC and we see it shitcoins constantly. Real markets with real serious buyers or institutions don't move like this. This is high margin, retail idiots and FOMO buyers that are now out of buying power and who knows how many of them just got liquidated by the pro's with an almost $4k move down. I don't think there will be enough new buyers to take it higher. Also very interesting to see all the commercial net shorts on the CME COT report with huge contango, most miners are likely well hedged. Again... do your own research, but be damn careful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by rzmb44
4