Parabolic
S&P 500 on the next leg of it's parabolic movePrevious analysis /position: Made a post with a long entry on July 13th. I did not like the bearish doji (daily) from yesterday that came right after we broke resistance and had bullish price fill on the TD'. Very happy to see current bullish marubozu with another green 2 above a green 1. Long from $2,808.35.
Patterns: Going parabolic. Approaching all time high reminds me of the infamous double top on 2008.
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $2,816 R: $2,850
9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 9: +0.45% 21: +0.67% | Bullish cross
50 & 200 MA’s: 50: +1.10% 200: +2.59%
FIB’s: 1 = $2,873
Candlestick analysis: Bullish marubozu (daily, weekly, monthly)
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bullish (daily, weekly and monthly)
TD’ Sequential: Green 2 above a green 1 (monthly) | Green 3 above a green 2 (weekly) | Green 3 above a green 2 (daily)
Visible Range: Last significant volume profile was $2,830
Bollinger Bands: At top of daily band. At top of weekly band (this is when it has made it strongest moves over the past year).
Trendline: Parabolic line starting in July 2010. Bottom of May 2nd to bottom of June 28th could be the next wave.
Daily Trend: bullish af’
Fractals: Broke up: $2,815 Top: $2,878 Down: $2,787
On Balance Volume: Weekly shows a small bear div'. Monthly has a bull div' with volume at a new all time high
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div' on monthly. Weekly and daily look healthy.
Conclusion: Very confident that we are in for new all time highs. TD’ Sequential shows this run has plenty of room to go and the volume profile shows very little built up resistance. Buying right now doesn’t feel like the best entry to me but it could be justified with the TD’ Sequential. A pullback to $2,820 feels likely at some point and setting an order there would make me feel more comfortable. As it stands I am fully positioned and don’t plan on taking profits until a 9 on the TD’ sell setup.
BTC PARABOLIC SAR Started EARLIER THIS YEAR. PARABOLIC SAR and the EXPONENTIAL Growth CURVE of DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION.
LAST YEAR: The first dot underneath indicating the parabolic start of the BULL RUN appeared on July 31st 2017.
That was the first mass bear massacre.
THIS YEAR: The first dot underneath indicating the parabolic start of the BULL RUN appeared on July 16th 2018. Earlier.
Much earlier. The bull run has begun.
This will be the second mass bear massacre.
I am new to TA. I am studying to become a full stack web developer and majored for a time in information technology.
I have studied disruptive innovation extensively.
The growth rate of Disruptive Innovation takes on a parabolic or exponential growth curve.
The growth rate of information technology also takes on a parabolic or exponential growth curve.
This has been documented since Clayton M. Christensen first began researching his theory on disruptive innovation. He is a Harvard Business Professor and world renowned for this theory. Here is a link to an article for further reading: hbr.org
Bitcoin is not only a disruptive technology.
Bitcoin is a disruptive information technology.
The parabolic growth curve, that Bitcoin, will then take, is unlike anything that anyone can conceive of.
My theory of this growth also stems from Ray Kurzweil's theory on the technological singularity where once more, the study of exponential growth rates of disruptive information technologies is plotted throughout history and analyzed.
More reading on this theory on this here: bigthink.com
Conclusion:
I believe the graph I have plotted is indicative of the path bitcoin will take in the coming months.
Best,
MFINITI
DIGITAL ALPHA BTC - HODL TIL $53,000!This is the type of analysis I enjoy more than runny eggs on a jellied biscuit - while on vacation. that is some serious enjoyment.
The past week was spent scouring through various stock charts, ETFs, benchmarks, and more. It was not until I stumbled into commodities did I start to see the type of pattern I was on the hunt for. Gold rung the bell harder than any other chart. In fact, there is no better comparison better for BTC than GOLD.
Gold is mined and the more you mine it, the more it costs to get the next unit of gold (diminishing rate of return). Same with BTC. Gold backed/was the peg to our monetary system. BTC is the pegged currency to our decentralized economy system. Gold and BTC have limited quantities (unless you have the philosopher's stone!)...and MOST importantly we denote them both with the color yellow. This list can go on for a while, so I'll end the boredom since we are all here for chart analysis, not philosophical talk.
(Random thought: Is Satoshi's middle name THOTH?)
Above is the GOLD chart with the most history, starting in 1975. Around 1980 Gold went on a run similar to Bitcoin's run in 2017. The retracement and the accumulation phase show similar patterns as well. So I kept digging. Gold took off after ETFs began. There was some insider buying before this took place. The run was in full effect and did not stop until August 2011 at $1800. Wow. Gold's previous high was $700. Keep in mind the ability to buy Gold was limited before ETFs were available (note this is a futures chart and it took 3 years before Gold boomed). So new buyers ARE necessary to take Bitcoin higher.
So the ETF is what we need to get to $50k Using fib levels from Gold's highest close to its lowest close (after the all time high) and using the 3.618 level, we hit $1800. Using this same methodology for BTC, we arrive at $53k. Also, there is rumor of an ETF coming in September 2018. This timeline matches up with the timing of when Gold's ETF happened, relative to its chart pattern.
Now for some second level..
2008 the financial crisis hit, stocks took a smashing, Gold stayed strong. In fact, after a quick correction Gold went parabolic to $1800. The reason I bring this up is the Dow Jones appears to be at a point where a markdown is on the horizon. We hit the ATH (26600) and now seem to be bouncing lower and lower with support at 23500 (higher volume happens during selloffs - bearish sign). If the Dow breaks 23500 you can expect a major correction. I'm not saying economic collapse or any of that, just a healthy correction. The fact that salaries are stagnant while the price of goods are rising alludes to this. Not to mention the savings rate is equal to interest rate..another harbinger..and some policies relating to US trade..one small bit of bearish news near the 23500 mark will take the price south quick. I bring this up because Bitcoin might be the gold during this period. Folks have been yearning for a new financial system ever since 2008. Fiat is backed by nothing, debt is rising to unfathomable levels, and accountability seems to be out the window. Bitcoin brings with it the potential to improve this situation and if we see Bitcoin (with an ETF) hold strong during a financial correction, fasten your seatbelts, we will be going parabolic.
Keep in mind I tried to match up the peaks and valleys with gold. I had another alternative where the ETF might occur Q2 in 2019 and $50k just before 2020. I'll post a photo of that below just for your viewing pleasure..Mmmm biscuits
Have a great day everyone. I will be updating this graph as time progresses during this accumulation period. My main focus will be bitcoin blockchain data. More specifically, volume of BTC moving across the blockchain. When insider buying occurs we will witness this on the blockchain, not the exchange. Seeing an uptick here will mean news of an ETF approval might be coming.
DA BULL
NFLX [Long-term analysis]It seems NFLX has gone parabolic over these past few months and it's obvious that it should pull-back as it is overvalued. The reason it has gone so high is because it is in an Ending Diagonal within a Ending Diagonal, to make it even more confusing the bigger one is a variant of the Ending Diagonal called a "throw-over", they tend to trap bulls because they think a new resistance turned support has been made as it breaches the upper boundary of the Ending Diagonal line; only to "throw itself over" the upper boundary line shortly after. The rise can be comparable to Bitcoin's rise in 2017 and that is because Bitcoin was also in an Ending Diagonal; I have copied a fractal of the Bitcoin 2017/2018 crash which happened shortly after the upper boundary was breached so you may compare it to NFLX's current price action. Keep in mind Ending Diagonals have a very volatile and vicious nature, which tends to whipsaw many traders out of their positions as it bounces through the boundaries; it being close to the apex (converging boundary lines) we should see our throw-over happen fairly soon. According to Elliot Wave theory we should have a wave 2 retracement of our whole 5 wave impulse/motive wave, the fibonacci ratios have been plotted - 61.8% is typical for a wave 2 but wave 2 can also retrace up to 100%; no more than that.
Year of the Bear -> Ice Age -> Moon ? (Long term)Blow off top in 2017, need to have capitulation yet and have even hodlers doubt themselves feel long, intense pain and want to die, then "slowly" (relatively) build back up to just go parabolic again to 100,000+. Upon reaching 20,000 again I wouldn't doubt a sell off to 15,000 but then shoot to the moon, maybe 500,000, then crash to 50,000, rinse and repeat.
MA: Double ABCD completionBack in April I was talking about using the elevated volatility to buy some cheap July put spreads on MA with the recognition that we might be early to game. Well...there appears to be a double ABCD completion in progress and I am keeping my fingers & toes crossed. Just a reminder, not only is this an expensive stock, it is a parabolic price action. Hope springs eternal!
The Biggest Pattern We're Following with BTCAs you can see on the chart, this might be an obviously huge pattern we're following on the weekly candles. If we are following this pattern, currently we are in the beginning of the number 3 cycle on the chart. We haven't had the 2nd and 3rd cycles after the big parabolic rise to get into the huge crash in 2014 again yet, assuming we're following this pattern.
To make things clear:
1-We've first started with a parabolic move until the 4 months of crash in 2013.
2-Although, the crash ended and it took about 4 months again to reach the previous all time high in 2013.
3-Another little(!) parabolic leg upwards forming a new ATH at the end of 2013.
4-We've been into a bigger correction which started a new parabolic cycle until the all time high of 20k in 2017 and then been into a correction going on for 4 months, from which we've broken out recently.
5(soon)- The crash has ended and it will take about 4 months from last month-until August- to reach our previous all time high in 2017
6(soon)-Followed by another little(!) parabolic leg upwards forming a new all time high at about 100k$~ (Probably September to December)
and finally; 7- After we reach 100k, we might have an uber crash until 12k which will take years to form.
ETC/BTC [ETHEREUM CLASSIC]: A BUMPY BUT PARABOLIC RIDEJust a quick overview of ETC
While 2018 has been a tough year so far for ETC, I believe we're developing a nice parabolic move in the near future.
Wave 1 retraced greatly, which signals to me that wave 3 will not retrace much. This is good news for people jumping in now, as it may just pull enough momentum to hit that all-time-high again.
I myself am not a huge fan of ETC, but I have witnessed ETC making enormous moves in the last year.
I'm not going into a lot of detail with this one, I just wanted to give a bit of chart confidence to anyone who is a big fan of ETC, I know you're out there :)
Much love crypto-fam , remember to always play safe, control your emotions and practice risk management.
Bitcoin on fire and more to come! Target 11.6k Main target 11.6k, short term target: 9.7k
The 9.7k target is a fibb resistance in combination of a wedge (yellow lines)
i think this is the end of the road for main wave 3 and we will enter a corective wave back to 8.5k
the 8.5k target is supported by a fibb line aswell if target 9.7k is met the 0.38 retracement would fit as a good support based on older tops and supports,
this rectracement however can be less or more downwards, this will fully depend on how bullish people still are after hitting the 9.7k top
worst case scenario it will retrace back to the major resistance we broke (dotted purple line) but this would be very unlikely
after it founds it support i do expect a pull all the way to 11.6k wich is again a major fib from 20k top to 6k bottom
and in the past we been hitting that 11.6k often as support aswell as resistance from our last double top in march.
11.6k target mid to end may, if we fail to break we can expect atleast 2 to 3k retrace
the green wave 1 to 5 is on a bigger scale wave 1 out of 5 upwards.
long term i am very bullish based on what indicators and wave tells me, fibb points tend to stack in a zone between 28k and 34k for this bull run.
happy trading and enjoy your beautyfull spring!
Bitcoin Going Parabolic...10k...14k......Beginning on April 1, 2018, BTC began making higher lows from 6450 to 6617, 6661.19, 6806.01; then a “dump” to 6767.77 took it that day to the high of 8050, a move of 1282.23. from there it continued to make a higher low, and the high of 8392.56, what I have counted as the top of my Primary Wave 1, until falling to 7822- currently the lowest low since coming up from 6767.77. The low of 7820 corresponds with my ABC Wave 2 down from the top of my Wave 1.
Since then BTC has posted higher lows on each Daily candle, literally confusing quite possibly every honest analyst as to what exactly its next move will be…
On April 19, 2018 BTC beached the downtrend line, from ATH and 11600, on the Logarithmic Daily Candle chart at 8520, and days before on the Linear chart at 7660.
On April 19 BTC also crossed above the 55, the 200, and the 233 Moving Day Average…
Taking a different approach to this analysis I began looking at the angle of projection of BTC; carrying through the 8398.98 High, BTC was climbing at an angle of 50°…with the following Highs at 65°…
Is there any significance to this? Well, lets look at some previous angles of near equivalence and see where they took BTC…
How about a look at the MACD on the Daily with the same perspective…
Candles on the Weekly? From Low of Previous Correction to ensuing All Time High…
And on the Monthly Chart from All Time Low to All Time High Log scale…
Some are saying “what if this is just another Corrective Wave up, before continuing down to the likes of sub 6k…well, let’s compare them…
The bottom at 5811 happened well below the center line of the MACG Histogram (an indicator of the MACD which shows the momentum of price action); the current movement which began on April 9, 2018, occurred above the center line of the Histogram, and in my opinion means there is a lot more action to come…furthermore, as some have been speculating that this is an ascending wedge destined to break downward, look at the proceeding angle of the Histogram after reaching the top (which some claim we have, or are, approaching. The top at 11800 immediately began a descent at -65°…while beginning on the 15th there was only a -5° decrease in the Histogram with sideways action, telling me that this is just the beginning of the movement up.
The Daily chart above shows where BTC currently sits overall…
Steadily climbing above the 55/200/233 MA’s, and currently within what is the beginning of Wave 3 of 3…
Movement within its current channel takes BTC to 10300, 11100, 12000…
and we will be seeing 14k sooner than later…then the FOMO begins…
I will be updating this on the regular…strap in…