Parabolic
Bitcoin on fire and more to come! Target 11.6k Main target 11.6k, short term target: 9.7k
The 9.7k target is a fibb resistance in combination of a wedge (yellow lines)
i think this is the end of the road for main wave 3 and we will enter a corective wave back to 8.5k
the 8.5k target is supported by a fibb line aswell if target 9.7k is met the 0.38 retracement would fit as a good support based on older tops and supports,
this rectracement however can be less or more downwards, this will fully depend on how bullish people still are after hitting the 9.7k top
worst case scenario it will retrace back to the major resistance we broke (dotted purple line) but this would be very unlikely
after it founds it support i do expect a pull all the way to 11.6k wich is again a major fib from 20k top to 6k bottom
and in the past we been hitting that 11.6k often as support aswell as resistance from our last double top in march.
11.6k target mid to end may, if we fail to break we can expect atleast 2 to 3k retrace
the green wave 1 to 5 is on a bigger scale wave 1 out of 5 upwards.
long term i am very bullish based on what indicators and wave tells me, fibb points tend to stack in a zone between 28k and 34k for this bull run.
happy trading and enjoy your beautyfull spring!
Bitcoin Going Parabolic...10k...14k......Beginning on April 1, 2018, BTC began making higher lows from 6450 to 6617, 6661.19, 6806.01; then a “dump” to 6767.77 took it that day to the high of 8050, a move of 1282.23. from there it continued to make a higher low, and the high of 8392.56, what I have counted as the top of my Primary Wave 1, until falling to 7822- currently the lowest low since coming up from 6767.77. The low of 7820 corresponds with my ABC Wave 2 down from the top of my Wave 1.
Since then BTC has posted higher lows on each Daily candle, literally confusing quite possibly every honest analyst as to what exactly its next move will be…
On April 19, 2018 BTC beached the downtrend line, from ATH and 11600, on the Logarithmic Daily Candle chart at 8520, and days before on the Linear chart at 7660.
On April 19 BTC also crossed above the 55, the 200, and the 233 Moving Day Average…
Taking a different approach to this analysis I began looking at the angle of projection of BTC; carrying through the 8398.98 High, BTC was climbing at an angle of 50°…with the following Highs at 65°…
Is there any significance to this? Well, lets look at some previous angles of near equivalence and see where they took BTC…
How about a look at the MACD on the Daily with the same perspective…
Candles on the Weekly? From Low of Previous Correction to ensuing All Time High…
And on the Monthly Chart from All Time Low to All Time High Log scale…
Some are saying “what if this is just another Corrective Wave up, before continuing down to the likes of sub 6k…well, let’s compare them…
The bottom at 5811 happened well below the center line of the MACG Histogram (an indicator of the MACD which shows the momentum of price action); the current movement which began on April 9, 2018, occurred above the center line of the Histogram, and in my opinion means there is a lot more action to come…furthermore, as some have been speculating that this is an ascending wedge destined to break downward, look at the proceeding angle of the Histogram after reaching the top (which some claim we have, or are, approaching. The top at 11800 immediately began a descent at -65°…while beginning on the 15th there was only a -5° decrease in the Histogram with sideways action, telling me that this is just the beginning of the movement up.
The Daily chart above shows where BTC currently sits overall…
Steadily climbing above the 55/200/233 MA’s, and currently within what is the beginning of Wave 3 of 3…
Movement within its current channel takes BTC to 10300, 11100, 12000…
and we will be seeing 14k sooner than later…then the FOMO begins…
I will be updating this on the regular…strap in…
LTC USD Parabolic PredictionLitecoin always a bit behind Bitcoin. I wonder about the ability of these curves based on past data to predict future. Just my fun idea about how LTC could move in the near future (and not investment advice of course). More use cases / network effect / adoption or conversely failure can of course change the shape of the future and these extrapolated curves. LTC BTC is quite another matter and may tell a completely different story about whether it made sense to hold Litecoin or Bitcoin going forward. Again perhaps a combination of HODL, use case/network effect could put LTC on a path to beat bitcoin in terms of appreciation in BTC terms.
BTCUSD Longterm Parabolic Trend lineThis is my projection for bitcoin using the weekly chart of Bitstamp against USD. Curved parabola lines are derived from what we know until today. Future of course gives more data points and can update this overall. This scenario explains how McAfee may have come up with his idea of 1 million dollar bitcoin before 2020. This projection says it could be up to about 1.4m by then. The gray trend lines rising within the parabola represent growing adoption or on a more basic level mass HODLing. Adoption = Network Effect = Plentiful use cases. For now the main use case is to HODL and speculate -- using as a store of value. Growing adoption / network effect equals rising within the parabola at an angle of incline as scarcity kicks in and more are HODLing. The trend line is broken with an event which breaks network effect. Mt. Gox in 2014 was such a moment to break the euphoria trend line. Broken adoption trend = trend down towards bottom of parabola or "bear market" for a certain amount of time. My scenario does not predict a major event between now and 2020. Assuming no negative event. Assuming growing adoption. Assuming mass HODLing (or at least use cases that keep bitcoin in major circulation changing hands a lot). Around 2021 as the trend line approaches the top of the parabola, it does start to get interesting. One could surmise that something might happen to change the trend. Not necessarily huge drop to bottom of parabola but something different from what we can see as of now.
BTC INTO A BULL CYCLE-UNTIL THE BIGGER CRASH NOT SO SOONHere is a reasonable correlation of BTC patterns and why we are at the end of the bears. As you can see, the first chart shows the 2013 crash(not the 2014 one. this one took about 4 months, just like the one we have today-and it broke out after 4 months).
The movements aren't exactly identical but the hype, popularity and insight wasn't the same back then, so in 2017 December we had another bull run after the run to 20k, which ended at around 17k. This is the hype. We must look for correlations between the bigger pictures, like where a cycle started&where it ended. Everything between those two points is noise, which may have changed since 2013.
What I'm focusing on is: It doesn't make sense to say we will have the 2014 crash just because the crash took so long. As you can see, the crash on 2013 took just as long as the one now-4 months. And leaded to another parabolic leg upwards making amazing gains, until the bigger crash in 2014. We can't just jump from 1 month corrections right into a 1,5 year one. The 2014 crash had a smaller crash before it(like the one we have now before the bigger crash starting in around 2019). But now we didn't really have that 2013 'smaller' crash beforehand to have the 2014 crash again.We're in that 'smaller' crash and it's ending. This spike today just supports this pattern even more. The 2 weeks of consolidation around 6k supports this too. I spoke about a reversal on my previous idea too, if you give it a read, it shows how we are going through a reversal in 4hr candles. And this one is about 1d candles. So let's watch this last daily candle breaking the long downtrend line, or the ones in the next days. We're in the early stages of a bull cycle now-hope so!
MA: Parabolic price action & valuations = Massive ShortWhen I see parabolic price action like Mastercard's weekly chart, I start thinking on how to structure a short because we all know parabolic price action always always ends in tears. It does help that MA is trading at....3.5x of its average 13-years P/B and has a...-0.25% real earnings yield (adjusted for US 10 T-bond). With MA implied vol trading at an elevated 34 and a nice skew, one can structure a July -5/-15 put spread for c.1.6% with a max c.4x payout if MA hits the min price target of $144 (being the weekly 38.2% retracement). I am most probably too early on this call with my short term tactical view being positive as we head into earnings season (MA reports 2 May'18) but...it is either you get the high vol or a better entry price. Either way, I would like to get some optionality into the books.
Is Parabolic Season Back?If your reading this you've probably been watching XVG go parabolic wondering when to sell or when to buy in to catch the next wave. The real question is.. Which coins are going to follow? Would love some ideas on this one!
Is a financial crisis ahead?In this vlog I explore mainly the shape of the younger Bitcoin parabolic correction with the much older and seasoned Wall Street (US30).
The emphasis here is in the nature of the struggle to avoid correction and the similarities in form .
The parabolic struggle seen in Bitcoin on the daily time frame, could well be reflected in the US30 on a weekly time frame. As the US30 is a much older more seasoned instrument, that's why I took 1 week of the US30 to approximate to 1 day of Bitcoin.
Parabolic markets are superheated and resist correction. Keep in mind that it's a new world where we have electronic dealing, so the fight to stay afloat is likely to be more reactive and violent.
For those who are interested focus on the form of the struggle.
What can we learn from the Great Recession ?
WHatever this coin is called its goin P A R A B O L I CIDK what this pos is but check out that trend. Severeal points of interest withing trend.
My bitcoin parabullic bulltard chartWell, as you can see, btc had two parabolic movements in the past, in case we see a fractal, we should start bouncing in a new and faster parabolic movement (i see it unlikely now) IN CASE btc goes parabolic, top would be around 66-88k.
(parabolic moves from top to top)
past:
1st parabolic movement from 16 usd to 260usd: 1500%
82% retracement.
2nd parabolic movement from 260usd to 1170: 335%
88% retracement followed by a long consolidation period.
pic 1
s3.amazonaws.com
Present:
(top to top)
1st parabolic movement from 1170 to 19850usd: 1500% (sounds familiar?)
this is the part where i doubt, we only retraced 70% from previous ath.
So in case btc decides to retrace 80% like previous retracements i placed that blue line.
My bet:
1ST SCENARIO:
2nd parabolic movement (in case we keep going and forget 80% retracement) from 19850 to 88800usd: 334% (sound familiar?)
86% retracement - bottom around previous ath (19k and weekly support, 12k. like previous run, bottom were found around previous ath and weekly resistance (check pic 1)
pic 2
s3.amazonaws.com
2ND SCENARIO.
Btc doesnt bounce and go for 80% retracement. We consolidate for a long period until we touch pink trendline.
(check pic 1 to see where it starts)
pic 3
s3.amazonaws.com
pic 4
s3.amazonaws.com
s3.amazonaws.com
As you can see in this scenario i expect bitcoin to revisit that pink trendline that in my opinion is very very important.
both cases are very bullish in the long term.