Microsoft (MSFT): Decision Point – Will It Hold or Drop?Since our last analysis on Microsoft, not much has changed in terms of price action, as it rose to $469 before getting stuck again at $416. However, there is one major development – Microsoft has formed a new trend channel. We have marked this crucial channel in red and labeled it "Must hold for more upside," emphasizing its importance. A major decision is approaching for $MSFT.
Either Microsoft holds this channel, leading to a surge higher, or it loses this level, which would confirm the bearish head and shoulder pattern. We've maintained a bearish outlook on Microsoft since January 2024, and recent developments seem to support our analysis. For now, we're patiently waiting and letting the market decide.
If Microsoft loses the channel, we could find initial support for wave (A) around $316-306. However, a better buying opportunity for wave II may present itself closer to $220 – though reaching this level will take some time. 🫡
Parallel Channel
Is INJ Coin Heading for a Deeper Correction?After the significant hype surrounding BINANCE:INJUSDT during the winter and spring, the coin's price began to decline, losing over 50% from its peak in the initial drop. However, by mid-September, the price made a recovery, climbing back above the important $20 mark and breaking through the descending trend line of a falling channel.
While this upward movement appeared to be a bullish signal, the momentum failed to push the price towards the $30 resistance level. Instead, it retreated back to the $20 support level.
Looking ahead, I anticipate that the $20 support level may soon be broken on the downside. If this happens, we could see an accelerated price drop, possibly bringing the price down to $10. The current price action suggests weakening support, raising the likelihood of a deeper decline in the near future.
How to analyse a chart? (Educational Post).In this post we will try to analyze what happened to Nifty and what can be the future course. We will also try to understand how to analyze Nifty using a parallel channel, EMA, Support and resistance and RSI. Through this exercise we will try to deduce possible turnaround supports, probable resistances it may face in future. On the onset let me tell you that the exercise is to increase the understanding of Technical analysis. The data should not be used for taking positions in the unpredictable market. Now have a look at the chart.
With the help of basic knowledge, you will be able to understand that every time the Nifty or for that matter any stock hits the top of the channel it reverts. Every time a stock or an index hits the channel bottom it tries to bounce back. When RSI shows the stock is over sold it corrects positively through short covering and when the stock is overbought zone it will try to cool down the RSI by price correcting on the negative side. The mid of the channel acts as support when the price is above it and acts as a resistance when price is below it.
Similarly 50 days and 200 days EMA which we call Mother and father line act as resistance when the price is below it and act as support when the price is above the lines. (This movement of stock price or index, when above and below 50 or 200 EMA whether it is hourly, daily, weekly or monthly and my Mother, Father and Small child theory I have explained it in depth in by book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation). The other green and red lines are supports and resistances respectively. These lines drawn based on peaks and valleys, tops and bottoms of important candles in case of a candle chart. In case of a line chart they are tops and bottoms of peaks and valleys again and important curves.
Like we have supports and resistances on line chart of a stock and index, RSI also has support and resistnace zones which can also indicate us the turnaround zones. There in one more Purple line which indicates the current trend. Looking at these various factors you can analyses and draw your own charts.
To know more about these indicators and how to use them and to understand Techno-Funda investment, read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in Paperback or Kindle version.
My deduction from the above chart is the following. 24966 will be an important support for Nifty. Below which it can fall to 24698 or 24384 levels. Channel bottom support is around 23874. Father line and 200 days EMA is at 23241. Any of these can be potential turnaround zones. RSI of Nifty tends to bounce from 39.82 or 26.45 zone. Current RSI is 40.63. When there is a turnaround the resistances for Nifty will be 25065 which currently is Mother line resistance which is coinciding with mid channel resistance. Above this zone resistances will be 25439, 25665 and 25836 before Nifty regains 26K+ levels.
The information regarding Nifty in this article is for the purpose of education and to show how various indicators often give same or similar result.
To know more about various Techno-Funda indicators and how to use them, when to use them, when to buy, when to book profit, Where to place a stop loss or what is trailing stop loss etc. you are recommended to read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation which is available on Amazon in paperback or kindle version. You can also read my Smart School column in Smart investment financial Weekly for gaining techno-Funda knowledge.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
DC. Again and Again.RSI is in the oversold zone on a local uptrend + the price is narrowing the range, forming an equilateral triangle since July. Risk/reward looks good for forming a spot position or trading with a small leverage. Potentially, the price is able to move within triangle for several more months, which also curiously coincides with the beginning of the final growth impulse of both Bitcoin and entire market.
BITCOIN - Price can continue to move down to support levelHi guys, this is my overview for BTCSDUT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to falling channel, where it declined to support line, breaking $63900 level.
BTC rose to resistance line and bounced down, breaking $57200 level, but then price started to grow in another channel.
In rising channel, BTC broke $57200 level and later rose to resistance line, which coincided with $63900 level.
Price made a little gap, and even later rose higher than $63900 level, but soon turned around and started to decline.
In a short time, BTC exited from rising channel, broke $63900 level, and continued to move down close resistance line.
I think that price can make small movement up and then continue to decline, between resistance line, to $57200 level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
How to Adam & Eve PatternEver wondered about Adam and Eve in trading? It's a straightforward and powerful pattern.
Hello dear traders! If you like my graphics, please use Like button 💙💛
Picture Adam as the first market peak or dip, and Eve as the second, forming a U-shape. This pattern highlights a robust price level, suggesting a potential market shift.
How to Utilize It?
In a downtrend, spot Adam and Eve as double bottoms. When Eve follows Adam, indicating a strong support level, consider entering trades. Trade when the price breaks above resistance line, with a stop loss set at the neckline level.
Pay attention to trading volumes. They confirm buying or selling strength, offering a clear signal for a trend reversal.
Finding Your Target:
Identify the pattern's height from the neckline to the peak of Eve. Project this distance downward from the breakout point for a bullish pattern or upward for a bearish one. This gives you a potential target for your trade.
Here is an example of Adam & Eve pattern play on Bitcoin chart:
Master the Adam and Eve pattern to make confident trading decisions. It's an intuitive way to identify market change in trend and make strategic moves. 📈✨
Bitcoin Potential Bull Flag w/ $35K (91%) Gain on Valid Break!Here I have BITSTAMP:BTCUSD on the Daily Chart!
2024 has been an Exceptional Year for Bitcoin after its nearly 2 Year Monumental Recovery from the Nov. 2022 Low @ $15,512 to pushing price up past the 3 Year High of $69,000 on Nov. 10th 2021 to the now New 8 Month High @ $73,835 on Mar. 14th 2024!
Fall '21/Summer '22 - Bitcoin is in a Declining Stage
Fall '22/Summer '23 - Bitcoin is in an Accumulation Stage
Fall '23/Spring '24 - Bitcoin is in a Advancing Stage
Spring '24/Fall '24 - ( Distribution or Accumulation) ???
Fall '24/Summer '25 - ???
Currently, Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of a Potential Bull Flag with a Flagpole suggesting a potential 91.78% or $35,334.57 Gain with a Valid Bullish Break!!
We can see Bitcoin has been in a Descending Channel since the Spring of 2024 came but Price Action has made a few key movements that I'd like to point out:
- After traveling the Descending Channel from the Higher High @ $73,835.57, Price makes a False Break of the Channel that touches the Previous Level of Structures Higher High and makes a 38.2% Retracement of the Current Higher High and is immediately brought back up into the Channel.
- Price continues to stay magnetized to the 200 EMA since its entered the Channel but Price seems to be trading Above it with ease in this Consolidation Zone.
Now this current Channel or Consolidation Price has been in from this Summer '24 going into this Fall '24 can either be an Accumulation OR Distribution Stage, all based on if we get a Bullish or Bearish Break to this Channel and something tells me we are looking at a Potential Bull Flag in the Making with the potential to reach
-Bullish Bias on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Fundamentals:
- BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has been gaining not only Domestic but Global traction with stories like El Salvador this year making Bitcoin its Official Currency!
-Economics now accepting more transactions Crypto-wise showing honest Expansion and Integration into society
-A lot of statistics show that people believe the USD may be looking at a downfall in the coming years and Crypto, specially BITSTAMP:BTCUSD potentially being a savior! People are not only fleeing to Commodities and Bonds when devaluation peers its head, but Crypto seems to start being another sector to look towards!
BTCUSDT wait for breakout of Descending channel first As we mentioned before price is in this range zone which is blue channel and first we need valid breakout then BTC next major move will appear and for now bull plan has higher potential and we can expect this range zone and descending channel and bull market as short-term fall and soon after breaking channel resistance heavy pump is expected and new ATH.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
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AUDCAD: Bearish Reversal Confirmed?!The 📉AUDCAD shows several indications of bearishness in intraday chart, the pair formed a rising parallel channel pattern and a cup & handle formation.
Both the trend line and neckline of the cup and handle pattern have been violented, suggesting the possibility of further declines.
The next support level to watch for is at 0.9190.
EURAUD: Bullish Move From Key Level 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
Check a price action on EURAUD.
After a test of a daily key level, the price started to
consolidate within a narrow area.
The price bounced then and violated a resistance line of a falling channel
and a horizontal range.
The pair has a potential to continue rising.
Next resistance - 0.6165
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#UNFIUSDT 1D (ByBit) Descending channel breakout & retestUnifi Protocol regained 50MA support and looks strong, mid-term recovery towards 200MA resistance seems in play, probably after a pull-back.
⚡️⚡️ #UNFI/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT, Binance Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (2.0X)
Amount: 5.5%
Current Price:
3.1685
Entry Zone:
3.0450 - 2.7630
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 3.5395
1) 4.0175
1) 4.4960
Stop Targets:
1) 2.3725
Published By: @Zblaba
NYSE:UNFI BYBIT:UNFIUSDT.P #1D #UnifiProtocol #DAO #DeFi unifiprotocol.com
Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.1 | 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +43.8% | +76.7% | +109.6%
Possible Loss= -36.6%
Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 months
Do not panic button till Mother and Father supports not broken.The parallel channel tops will always be difficult to conquer. Children staying abroad and in far away places coming to meet mother and father once is a while is always a sign of a healthy family. Nifty coming to meet the mother and sometimes the father on daily chart is always a healthy sign.
The reasons can be any:
1) SEBI change in rules.
2) Conflict between Israel and various other countries
3) Crude oil prices
In the recent Past the reasons were incidents like:
1) Ukraine war
2) US Fed rate cuts
3) Covid 19 Outbreak
Major Nifty support is near 25067 to 25040 zone as you can see in the daily chart Nifty is near mother line which is also coinciding with mid channel support and a peak support. This can be the probable turnaround zone. If this support is broken further supports will be at 24804, 24384. The zone between 23995 to 23612 is another turnaround zone as it can be the channel bottom support. 23223 is the final support of father line drawn on daily chart. Below this there can be actual panic in the market.
Resistances for Nifty are now at 25439, 25665, 25836 and 26037. Above 26037 bulls will be in super power mode again. Bottom fishing time in premium/High quality/A+ category has arrived. Churn your portfolio around. New themes will soon emerge. Hold on / do not panic / sell stocks where you are in loss / use this fall to churn your portfolio.
Strictly do not trade/invest without keeping Stop losses and Trailing stop losses. Stop losses protect your capital and trailing stop losses protect your profits. To know more about stop losses, trailing stop losses, Profit booking and investment in Equity in general or Mother, Father and small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. Which is available in Amazon in Kindle and Paperback version.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Do not panic button till Mother and Father supports not broken.The parallel channel tops will always be difficult to conquer. Children staying abroad and in far away places coming to meet mother and father once is a while is always a sign of a healthy family. Nifty coming to meet the mother and sometimes the father on daily chart is always a healthy sign.
The reasons can be any:
1) SEBI change in rules.
2) Conflict between Israel and various other countries
3) Crude oil prices
In the recent Past the reasons were incidents like:
1) Ukraine war
2) US Fed rate cuts
3) Covid 19 Outbreak
Major Nifty support is near 26067 to 26040 zone as you can see in the daily chart Nifty is near mother line which is also coinciding with mid channel support and a peak support. This can be the probable turnaround zone. If this support is broken further supports will be at 24804, 24384. The zone between 23995 to 23612 is another turnaround zone as it can be the channel bottom support. 23223 is the final support of father line drawn on daily chart. Below this there can be actual panic in the market.
Resistances for Nifty are now at 25439, 25665, 25836 and 26037. Above 26037 bulls will be in super power mode again. Bottom fishing time in premium/High quality/A+ category has arrived. Churn your portfolio around. New themes will soon emerge. Hold on / do not panic / sell stocks where you are in loss / use this fall to churn your portfolio.
CADJPY - Bearish Pressure Soon!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 CADJPY has been hovering within a big range marked in blue.
Currently, CADJPY is retesting the upper bound of the range.
Moreover, the upper green trendline acts as a non-horizontal resistance.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the major high and upper trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #CADJPY is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Microsoft - Its Decision Time Hi Guys,
This chart could be a leading indicator for overall market direction, alongside NASDAQ:NVDA - NVIDIA and $AAPL. So this chart and the other two largest companies in the world Nvidia and Apple are worth paying close attention to, for overall market direction.
▫️ Similar to a the 2019 - 2022 period, the price held the mid term parallel channel with the 200 day SMA acted as underside support. When the 200SMA and the parallel channel was lost in Q1 2023, it led to significant 28%+ decline from these levels (38% from the prior highs of the period).
▫️ We can use the DSS Bressert and the On Balance Volume to help here in distinguishing a likely trend direction.
▫️ This is a very strong chart as it stands. Many traders could step in at the 200 day SMA and bottom of the channel. If the channel is lost, and we have serious reason for concern and could exit on a revisit or test of the underside of the channel (as illustrated with the arrow).
Unless the channel is lost which sync's up with a loss of the 200 day moving average (approx. $410), intermediate trend looks intact for continued upwards trajectory.
Remember, you can check in on this chart and press play to get updated data at any time by clicking the link in the comments below or by following me on TradingView.
PUKA
EURAUD Long term longs, get in now or wait for pullbacksSimple technical analysis here, price has been wallowing around these lows for a while and it's the bottom of the higher time frame channel, great opportunity to start buying here with great risk reward.
Buy now and hold or wait for pullbacks if you're more conservative. Not sure on targets, would hope for a 50% pullback at least or possibly higher but that's a long hold.
EURUSD: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support.
After a retest of a broken structure, the price started to consolidate
within a narrow horizontal range.
Bearish breakout of the support of the range is a strong bearish confirmation.
The pair may continue falling to 1.1015
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TMF Swing Trade and Long-Term HoldConfluence 1:
On the 4H Chart, TMF has been respecting the upper channel. Back on 8/1, TMF broke out of the resistance trendline and then re-tested it on 8/8. That trendline is now acting as support which we recently bounced off of.
Confluence 2:
On 9/24, TMF touched into the fair value gap highlighted in gray. From there, we showed some signs of bullishness. This is where I initiated a starter position in TMF.
Confluence 3:
On 9/26, we came back to sweep liquidity (stop out initial longs) and tap into the order block (the red shooting star candle before the big green candle) on 9/3. On the Daily chart, we see the trendline was not broken (did not close below, only wicked through)
Confluence 4:
RSI also hit 25 (<30) on the 4H on 9/24, and a bullish MACD crossover occurred on 9/26.
Take Profit :
At the top of the channel AKA upper trendline which is currently acting as resistance. I plan to trim some of my position and begin to sell covered calls to generate income.
Stop Loss :
A close below the lower trendline in the low 50s. If the middle support trendline is broken, I will add to my position. If you are looking to swing trade this (not long-term hold), I would exit if we close below this line at around 56-57.
From a macro standpoint - there is economic and geopolitical uncertainty due to Middle East tensions. There are several factors that could put us into a recession, so TMF, TLT, or BND are good holds to hedge a equity-heavy portfolio.
TMF is 3x leveraged so please do your own due diligence before trading this!
My positions:
[ ADDED TODAY ] 100 shares of TMF @ 59.70
100 shares TMF @ 57.61
100 shares TLT @ 98.61
Sold 2 Cash-Secured Puts for 10/18 @ 57
This is in total (including CSP collateral) makes up roughly 5-10% of my portfolio.
$WEED * CGC CANOPY GROWTH CORP. EWP TC FIB 3W TF ANALYSISAs of October 2024, NASDAQ:CGC TSX:WEED is positioned within a significant Elliott Wave cycle, suggesting a complex market environment.
Elliott Wave Analysis:
Wave Structure:
Wave 3 is currently in progress, with expectations to bottom around $2.46 to $2.06 CAD.
This wave represents a major impulsive move downward.
Wave 4 is anticipated to follow, retracing 38.2% to 50% of the decline from Wave 3, likely targeting the $6.50 to $9.00 CAD range. This wave is expected to exhibit a corrective structure, potentially forming a flat correction or triangle.
Wave 5 is projected to extend down to $0.25 to $0.04 CAD, signaling a final capitulation phase in this bearish cycle.
RSI Analysis:
1. Current RSI Level:
The RSI is currently at 32.77, approaching oversold territory. This indicates that Wave 3 may soon reach its conclusion.
2. Divergence Signals:
Bullish Divergence Potential: As we approach the expected bottom of Wave 3, monitor for signs of bullish divergence. If the price moves lower but the RSI shows a higher low, it could signal weakening downside momentum and a potential reversal.
3. Wave 4 Behavior:
During Wave 4, we expect RSI to recover towards the 50 level, reflecting the corrective bounce while targeting the $6.50 - $9.00 CAD range.
4. Wave 5 Confirmation:
In the subsequent decline of Wave 5, a final push to new lows accompanied by bullish divergence in the RSI would indicate a weakening downtrend, suggesting a possible bottoming pattern and future reversal.
HelenP. I Gold will rebound from support zone and start move upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. A few moments ago price declined to support 2, which coincided with the support zone, and some time traded near until it broke this level which trend line. Then the price turned around and started to grow inside the upward channel, where it soon broke support 2 and later reached the trend line. After this, Gold broke this line and tried to grow more, but failed and dropped to the support line of the channel. Then it rebounded up, breaking the trend line, and reached support 1, which coincided with one more support zone. XAU broke this level and some time traded inside the support area, after which rebounded up to the resistance line of the channel and some time traded close, after which turned around and dropped below the trend line. Then price fell to the support zone, but a not long time ago bounced up to the trend line and then started to decline. For this case, I expect that Gold will fall to the support zone and then rebound up, higher than the trend line, breaking it and continuing to grow. For this case, I set my goal at 2700 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️