Possible Channel Break Re-testsA quick look at how Bitcoin could drop as low as 25-26k or even 22-23 and remain bullish.
Bitcoin first broke above an inverted HS, which ultimately led to a parallel channel breakout on the weekly chart.
We haven't yet re-tested the top of that channel.
A re-test doesn't always occur, but if it does a re-test at 25-26k is easily still bullish and remains above both pattern breaks.
There's also the possibility of a pullback below the inverted HS that still remains above the channel if a re-test occurs but gets dragged out for weeks. A prolonged re-test could pullback below the inverted HS, yet remain above the parallel channel, going as low as 22-23k or even lower (below 20k) if it is prolonged further.
Parallelchannels
Breakout in Nifty but mid chanel resistance can block the pathFantastic Bullish breakout in Nifty but there is Mid-channel resistance can block the run way for a while unless we get a gap up opening tomorrow. The RSI also indicates need that Nifty is little bit into overbought territory. Little bit of consolidation before moving ahead will be good. Supports on the lower side are at 20024, 19960 and 19875. 19875 is a major channel bottom support. Nifty not breaking it will be good. If that support is broken major supports will be at 50 Hours EMA 19833 and 200 Hours EMA at 19614. Resistances on the upper side are 20103 strong resistance. Next resistance is 20237 and finally 20394. Peak of the current rally can be near 20556.
Managing Positions with Parallel ChannelVideo tutorial:
• How to identify downtrend and uptrend line
• How to draw parallel channel correctly
• Confirming a change in trend (using trendline itself)
• Managing positions with parallel lines
- Profits
- Risks
- Knowing its volatility
Micro Natural Gas Futures & Its Minimum Fluctuation
0.001 per MMBtu = $1.00
Code: MNG
Disclaimer:
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Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA V2 (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes.
What's on the chart:
Converging parallel channels (light blue) aka diamond box pattern, framing price action into a pennant formation on higher timeframe.
Descending parallel channel (white) emphasizing current downward trend since late September peak.
Fibonnaci levels highlight key support/resistance zones.
Short-medium term outlook:
Sharp reversal (short-squeeze?) from over-selling after breaking out lower range of parallel channel (white).
Bullish reversal = rally back above 50% Fib.
Bearish continuation = further selling below previous low towards 78.6% Fib / lower range of parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone.
Watch for commodity trading trend/sentiment in either direction - leading into upcoming OPEC+ decision re: 2024 supply cuts, TBC.
US Russell 2000 RTY ~ Ping Pong Perpetuity (Daily Chart)CAPITALCOM:RTY chart mapping/analysis.
Russell 2000 still stuck within trading range despite recent rallies across major US indices.
What's on the chart:
Ascending parallel channel (light blue) captures upward trend over multi-decade timeframe
Descending parallel channel (white) frames downward trend from upper to lower range (multi-decade) parallel channel
Horizontal lines (yellow dashed) locks in trading range (June 2022 to present)
Descending trend-line (light blue dotted) highlights pivot support points
Fibonnaci levels establishes key supply/demand zones
Short-medium term outlook:
Neutral-bearish
RTY remains in " Ping Pong Perpetuity " until breakout on either side of trading range
200DMA acting as dynamic resistance, exerting downward pressure
Bullish reversal = rally above 200DMA to switch trend & test upper trading range
EURUSD Trade Idea for 15/NOV/2023In this video, I did a full breakdown from the weekly timeframe down to the 1h timeframe. I talked about what I'll be expecting from the market today and I also talked about why I might not trade today.
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13/NOV/2023 EURUSD ANALYSISThis is a fully detailed top down analysis on eurusd. In the video, I talked about the pair from the weekly timeframe, showing what I expect the price to do over the next week and also explaining how it relates to what I expect the price to do today. I dropped down the daily and 4h timeframes and also explained their relationship and why I expect the price to drop today. Finally, I dropped down to the 1h timeframe and talked about the levels I'm going to be watching out for before I take any trade on the pair. I also talked about what the market could do that will make this analysis become invalid.
I bet this video will be of value to you.
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EURUSD TOP DOWN ANALYSIS FOR 13/NOV/2023From the daily timeframe, you can see that eurusd is in an upward channel. I will expect to see the channel last for the next few weeks because there's a possibility that the price will touch a weekly resistance zone for a retracement up above. However, the price moves in trends and made a higher high two weeks ago. Throughout last week, the price has been on a retracement move downwards and I expect the retracement to continue even lower than last week's low before the next impulse for the higher high comes.
On the 4h timeframe, we have a temporary downward channel which we expect the price to respect all the way down to 1.06500 or even lower within this week before the next move upwards again.
On the 1h timeframe, that's where I look for trading levels and from what I can see, the price is trading between 1.07000 and 1.06500. Like I already said, I expect to see the price drop so before I will take any trade, I will expect to see the price rise to the most recent resistance which is the 0.07000 level which will meet with the descending trendline resistance and act as a confluence for a possible move downwards.
In a nutshell, I will expect to see the price rise to the 0.07000 level before I start looking for selling opportunities down to last week's lows and ultimately 0.06500.
Tune in by 6:30am WAT for a video analysis on the pair.
TLT ~ Have US Yields finally topped? (Weekly / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart dividend adjusted.
Price action bouncing off Golden Pocket (66% Fib) support
Heavy trading volume = institutional activity (ie positioning?)
Rejection wicks on previous weekly candles = selling pressure still present (correlation with long-end yields holding strength)
Looking for re-test of lows + bounce to confirm double bottom support base established for bullish momentum.
Inverse play = price action engulfs previous candle, completes gap partial-fill + taps overhead resistance aka descending trend-line (light blue dotted).
Institutional short-squeezes could still be active - complimenting inverse play thesis.
Failure to break above/below either trend-lines = price action continues to contract until eventually ripping in volatile fashion in either direction.
Set alerts - monitor US yields - wait for trade to set up in your favour.
Crude Oil Futures ~ Golden Pocket Support (2H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! intraday mapping/analysis.
Crude Oil Futures finding support on Golden Pocket + lower range of descending parallel channel (white dashed) confluence zone after flat bottom break, while hovering above lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) + 66% Fib confluence.
Price action accumulating while digesting recent sell-off
Bias leaning towards bullish reversal to re-test break aka "return to scene of crime", TBC
Heavy confluence zone(s) underneath to keep price elevated (unless wrecked by major economic/geopolitical news catalyst)
Breakout above accumulation to validate bullish reversal &/or tap parallel channel (green) + 66% Fib confluence & rip back up to trigger fake dump/liquidity grab
Eyes on US Yields for correlation (linked via Related Ideas)
Set alerts - wait for trade to setup - hyper-awareness for potential oil manipulation by either OPEC+ or US (SPR refill narrative)
US10Y ~ Intraday Analysis (2H Chart)TVC:US10Y intraday mapping/analysis.
US yields dip while bonds & stocks rip.
US10Y in clear downtrend with potential bearish H&S pattern developing, TBC.
H&S development would correlate with bonds/stocks pullback before further bullish momentum into EOY.
Left shoulder, head & neckline outlined. Right shoulder parameters:
Rally above ascending 1st trend-line (green dashed)
Resistance at 200SMA, gap fill, 2nd ascending trend-line (green dashed) + upper range of descending parallel channel (white)
Price action rolls over to re-test/break neckline & validate pattern
Prelim target = lower range of ascending parallel channel (light blue) + 50% Fib confluence zone.
Note: break of "neckline" before right should formation negates H&S = express trip to prelim target.
Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Crude Oil Futures capitulating from early October rally despite ongoing Middle East tensions & geopolitical uncertainty.
Only macroeconomic narrative/headwind that would override war escalations is increasing probability of global recession-induced demand destruction, IMO.
Notes:
Flat bottom pattern development = bias towards bearish price action, TBC.
Crude Oil = highly manipulated trade with ongoing short-risk from Saudi Arabia &/or Russian market intervention - trade at your own risk to capital.
US100 ~ November TA Outlook V2 (4H Intraday)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis V2.
Always good practice to revisit your chart(s) after couple days with a refreshed perspective, to determine whether your initial TA has complimented developing price action, or your drawings need to be updated/overhauled.
Revisit updates:
Re-adjusted ascending parallel channel (green line) + highlighted middle trend-line (white dashed) to emphasize potential resistance of breakout price action
Extended descending trend-line (light blue dotted) to connect pivot points from Nov 2021 Dec 2021 peaks
Remaining TA drawings have held up so far, TBC.
EURUSD Setup 09/NOV/2023This is a detailed top down analysis of eurusd. I started the analysis for the weekly time frame, showing the levels I will expect the price to hit in the long run and ended the analysis on the 1h timeframe, showing the levels I expect to take a trade from today.
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If you're going to take this setup, trade responsibly. There's no 100% sure setup in the market so apply proper risk management.
EURUSD Analysis and setup for 07/Nov/2023This is a detailed analysis which shows the levels I'll be watching out for from the daily time frame all the way down to the the 1h timeframe. It's a full top-down analysis that is purely based off of price action.
Remember that forex is risky so everything you see in this video is purely for educational purpose and is my Idea. It doesn't act as investment advice. If you trade based on the analysis in this video, you are doing it at your own risk.